As I’m on the very tiny travel Chromebook with limited screen size and tools, I’m not going to embed any graphs. For those, run the links here:
https://chiefio.wordpress.com/2026/03/13/some-financial-tools-links/
General Market Conditions
The USA is in a war with Iran, and supporting the Globalist EU / UK / Ukraine war against Russia. This has financial markets in mild turmoil.
Iran has temporarily effected a closure of the Strait Of Hormuz which has roiled oil markets and put pressure on a lot of the global economy – especially in heavily oil dependent countries like China and gas / LNG dependent places like the EU; where prices have spiked for LNG, natural gas, gasoline, Diesel and more.
This has caused the energy sector to pop up dramatically BUT that’s a trade, not an investment. And, how long a trade is not determinant (which is why I didn’t trade it; along with having personally shifted away from trading to longer term investing since I now have enough other retirement income that I don’t need to trade to make income).
As soon as the Strait opens, oil prices and LNG prices will start dropping and will continue to do so for a fairly long while as refinery and shipping capacity is restored. Making it a risky trade anyway.
Add in the Houtis trying to shut down the Red Sea, and shipping oil from the Gulf States to Europe is now a mess. This excess cost of energy products, added to the voluntary shut off of Russian energy products, puts Europe in a financial bind, hobbles their economies, and will cause economic downturn (with recession probable for a while) and poor performance of companies. I’d avoid any investments in The EU, UK, or other European nations.
Russia is self sufficient in energy, minerals, and just about everything else (other than “European Luxuries” that are now banned for sale to them anyway), so will do rather better; but we in the west are blocked from investing in them anyway.
China is in long term decline of their major domestic investment sector (real estate) that is overbuilt with poor quality. The Manufacturing sector continues to expand, but now with an official 5% target grown (down from historical 12%+) and with export headaches from tariffs, and threats about Taiwan. So I’d avoid China as well.
Then, what is left really, is India (where I have a very long term investment via a fund) which is buying cheap Russian Oil, and has lots of domestic growth available; and South America Which is presently having political turnover from Socialist to more Conservative / Capitalist styles. All good and I’d be willing to trade it, but the issue there is the decades long tendency to political flip-flops upending long term investability. I have a little bit in South America (mostly in oils).
Canada has gone nuts with political crappy ideas, IMHO, likely to break up in the next year. Australia has headed off to Loony Lefty Land, so not interesting either.
All of which has me concentrating in the USA.
S&P 500
It has been a pretty good long run, but the S&P 500 chart from Sharpcharts has hit a pause. The EMA (Exponential Moving Average) 20 day has crossed under the SMA (Simple Moving Average) 50 day lines, with price below that; but still above the 200 day SMA line.
MACD has blue under red and both below the zero line.
Were I trading this would have been a “trade out” signal about the start of March. As a longer term investor with a modest stake and a lot still in cash, I’m going to start watching for an “add more” signal when this trend reverses (which is likely to be at the re-opening of the Strait and resumption of oil flows, or the end of the war – ideally with both happening together with a USA clear victory).
DOW and QQQ (Nasdaq) are saying the same thing. Clearly the professional traders have all run off to the Oil Trade.
Precious Metals
A bit oddly in a time of wars, Gold & Silver are a little off their all time highs. I’m not selling anyway. I have over a double in them (so for trading ought to trade out), but for me these are long term assets. I see no reason to hand 40% or so of that gain to the Government as a tax instead of just holding them for long term Capital Gains treatment AND inflation protection.
For GLD the MACD stack is Red over Blue but still above zero line; so has lost momentum but isn’t a flat out sell. The MA stack is still in normal order (not inverted) but with price below the 50 day SMA line. I’m going to watch for a slightly better buy signal and then I’m more likely to buy more than sell. But there isn’t anything to do at the moment. Ditto SLV; though for it, the 20 EMA line is below the 50 SMA line and with price below both, setting up a sell signal. However, silver is very volatile, and the overall impression of the chart is a spike up to a “ringing sideways” stabilizing.
The demand / supply issues of silver have not gone away and my best guess is just that the hot money has moved to the Oil Trade for a while.
Broader Market and Sectors
The FinViz heat map for S&P 500 for 3 months shows green for Real Estate, Energy, Basic Materials, Industrials, Consumer Defensive, and Utilities. Just what you would expect from a market nervous about oil shocks and a war environment.
There are also a few tepid gains still in some of the hot Tech Companies (like NVDA still up 3.5% and INTC Intel up 19% amid the push for onshoring chips).
Microsoft down 15% on new release stupidity…
The Russel 2000 map looks similar but with more detail, and with the Financial Sector looking very red.
The “World” map has BHP (mining & minerals) in Australia with green and 17% gain in keeping with the demand for resources. ASML and TSM with bright green gains again from the A.I. push and demand for building semiconductors in the USA again. Oil, Minerals & Beer stocks in South America too. But overall I’m unimpressed with the broader international markets.
Bonds
I’m not big on bonds. Not with countries buggering their currencies. The interest rates offered are rising, but the principle is inflating away…
In Conclusion
I’m mostly just sitting pat and watching for time to add to long term defensive positions with broad investment potential. Mostly in the USA, a little in South America, and a very long term speculative position in a broad India fund for dividends and growth over years. Avoiding the most political nations (Russia, China, EU, UK) and their food fights.
Looking for opportunities to buy more as buy signals show up.
Musings from the Chiefio 
