CIA CHIEF VISITS INTERIM PRESIDENT

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On 15 January, John Ratcliffe, chief of CIA, flew to Caracas for a meeting with “interim president” of Venezuela, Delcy Rodríguez. The MSM commented demurely on this, as if such an encounter were normal diplomatic practice. It was not. In the quaint, antique world of international relations, presidents meet presidents, and intelligence chiefs meet their counterparts. When Bolsinaro made his inaugural trip to DC in 2019, his first stop was at CIA HQ. Some media remarked on the surprising nature of this visit, which wasn’t on the Brasilian president’s official agenda. In theory Bolsinaro was there for an audience with President Trump. But he checked in with CIA first. Last week, CIA checked in with Delcy, who according to the White House will soon be visiting DC.

CIA’s press office released some photos of Ratcliffe’s brief visit to Venezuela. Here he is shaking hands with the interim president. (Check out the dude behind them wearing the official Philip K Dick Bob Arctor Scramble Suit TM)

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What does it mean when people shake with their left hands? Was the picture flipped? I don’t think so. Below is a picture of the CIA chief chatting with the military gentleman in the photo above. This one is not flipped: note the Toyota logo in the background. In both images the military man wears his hat badge and fruit salad on the correct (left) side.

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What is the significance of a left-handed shake? I have no idea. Perhaps Rodríguez and Ratcliffe are both lefties! TeleSur, the Venezuelan state media outlet, did not mention Ratcliffe’s visit. But it did report that Rodríguez has fired Alex Saab as president of the International Center for Productive Investment, and replaced him with one Calixto Ortega Sanchez.

The MSM continue to promote a breach between Rodríguez and other Chávistas. Modern Diplomacy/Reuters reported that the interim president was at odds with Diosdado Cabello, the minister of the interior. Reuters tells us that Cabello leads “the dreaded “colectivos” motorcycle gangs which have killed opposition supporters. “She is very clear that she doesn’t have the capacity to survive without the consent of the Americans,” said one source close to the government.”

Also citing anonymous sources, the English Grauniad assured us that Rodríguez collaborated with the US to ensure Maduro’s kidnapping, while Reuters also alleged that the US was in serruptitious contact with Cabello for months prior to the raid. Rodríguez denied the Grauniad claims via a social media account, Miraflores al Momento. In a separate article, the Grauniad reported that Rodríguez told a group of supporters, “The threats began from the very first minute they kidnapped the president. They gave Diosdado, Jorge [her brother and congressional president] and me 15 minutes to respond, or they would kill us.”

Rodríguez said that at first US troops allegedly “told us [the Maduros] had been assassinated, not kidnapped”, and that she, her brother and Cabello replied that they “were ready to share the same fate”. But they did not. And it is unclear how she, her brother, or Cabello all came to be in communication with the Americans. As far as I know, there’s no US reward for the apprehension of the Rodríguez siblings. But there is a $25 million US bounty on Cabello’s head.

Even as the US oil companies seem unkeen to become involved in Venezuela, the US government has gone into business selling its stolen oil. The US president has signed an executive order declaring Venezuelan oil revenues immune from attachment, judgement, or judicial process of any kind. Executive Order 14373, titled “Safeguarding Venezuelan Oil Revenue for the Good of the American and Venezuelan People” is the means via which the stolen oil revenue will be banked and disposed of. Venezuela’s creditors and “distressed asset” vultures are suddenly out of luck – “The Sovereign Wipeout: How America Just Erased $150 Billion in Creditor Claims and Rewrote the Rules of Default” is a fascinating tale of unintended consequences for the international rentier class.

As per her instructions, the interim president has been tinkering with the law regarding Venezuela’s oil and foreign investors. Her proposed legislation reverses some of Hugo Chavez’ reforms, but doesn’t betray Venezuelan sovereignty entirely: PDVSA would still retain a majority stake in joint ventures.

In the US, the house of representatives blocked a war powers resolution regarding Venezuela, just as the senate rejected a similar measure earlier this month. Both votes were the usual suspenseful, knife-edge, near-ties with the inevitable neocon outcome. Seth Harp, author of The Fort Bragg Cartel, was subpoenaed by Congress for revealing the name of the commander of the Delta Force group which abducted President Maduro. And there have been mumblings from the White House that Cuba, or Colombia, or even Mexico will be next. If the US blockades Cuba to prevent shipments of Mexican oil, the results will be enhanced impoverishment and suffering. According to the WSJ, the US government is searching for Cuban government insiders who can repeat the Venezuelan magic.

“I strongly suggest they make a deal. BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE,” Mr Trump wrote.

REGIME CHANGE?

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The US department of justice has published a legal analysis justifying the attack on Venezuela and the kidnapping of the Maduros. According to its author, operation Absolute Resolve was limited to the kidnapping, and did not plan for a US occupation or “boots on the ground.” His language is somewhat strange. “We have repeatedly concluded that the President could order a surgical strike on an adversary because he was not attempting to effectuate regime change which is an inevitable consequence of a successful operation here.” In other words, this was a regime change operation which didn’t intend or attempt regime change. Okay.

The leader of the free world wasted no time stating his terms to the acting president, Delcy Rodríguez. Invoking the National Emergencies Act, he declared that henceforth the US would “run the country” and receive all funds generated by the sale of Venezuelan oil, “as sovereign property of the Government of Venezuela held in custody by the United States.” The US president said he would dispose of those funds for the good of the American and Venezuelan people, but his executive order doesn’t say who the beneficiaries are. He also predicted that US oil companies would invest $100 billion upgrading Venezuelan extraction infrastructure, and that lower gas prices would result.

The New York Times published an opinion piece boosting the presidential kidnapping: The Dissident revealed its author was funded by the Atlantic Council/big oil. After a ceremonial visit to the White House, the oil companies proved less than keen to jump aboard the pirate ship. ExxonMobil called the country “uninvestible” (Exxon is currently extracting oil and gas from the disputed Esequibo region between Venezuela and British Guyana). Naked Capitalism shared a piece from Oil Price titled Venezuelan Oil and the Limits of US Refining Capacity which gives a good picture of the existing oil infrastructure, and the actual cost of bringing it up to modern, sanctions-free standards. The bottom line is that if Venezuela were able to pump and sell more, this would displace Canadian, Mexican, and some Middle Eastern grades. The Canadians and Mexicans would have to pump less, based on limited demand and refinery capacity. Some of the many difficulties of attempting to control Venezuela, with or without an invasion, are outlined here.

And it doesn’t seem that “regime change” has occurred. The US leader has warned that she may face “a fate worse than Maduro’s” – yet, in public, Rodríguez remains faithful to the Chavista line, and demands the safe return of the president and his wife. Mainstream media ignore the massive demonstrations, calling for the Maduros’ return. His government remains in place, though Rodrîguez has sacked General Marcano Tábata, the head of counterintelligence, who was also in charge of Maduro’s security detail. The NYT, Grauniad, and other MSM report on a rift between Rodríguez and Alex Saab, the former Venezuelan diplomat who was kidnapped by the US and imprisoned for two years. According to these stories, Rodríguez asked for US military help to capture a tanker belonging to Saab which had left Venezuela carrying oil, for which the national oil company had not been paid. Is this story true? Does it betoken a rift within the movement? Is Saab, a businessman, still politically involved?

The fugitive tanker Bella-1, renamed the Marinera and reflagged as a Russian vessel, was finally captured by US and English forces in the open sea between Iceland and Scotland. Two U.S. Navy P-8A Poseidon aircraft, a KC-135 aerial refueling tanker, two C-130J Hercules tactical transport aircraft and three U-28A Draco special operations aircraft were involved in the seizure of the ship (or just happened to be in the vicinity).

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The remains of the 32 Cubans killed by operation Absolute Resolve were returned to their homeland for burial. There has been no real news about the circumstances in which they died. This article contains a list of their names. Stories which claim to tell “How the US snatched Maduro” fail to do so. Black Mountain Analysis has a long piece about the fragility of Venezuelan air defences, and how they failed. As yet there’s been no comparable analysis of the failure of Maduro’s personal defence detail. Most of the Cubans were part of this. Presumably some of the Venezuelans who died that night were also protecting their president. A dubious report claims these men were killed with high-tech sound weapons.

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Who knows? It’s curious that a fleet of large helicopters was able to land in a Venezuelan military base, disgorge troops who killed all the president’s guards without his being aware of it, and sprit him and his wife away. It’s a story still to be told.

But it will be told, I expect. Unlike the people in small boats who continue to be killed by the US Navy, whose stories will not be told. 115 dead is the latest count for them. Meanwhile the Navy’s top admiral laments that the USS Gerald R Ford is past its due date. Its sailors have been guaranteed a seven-month deployment. And the ship is in need of repair: “we have maintenance agreements and contracts that have been made with yards that are going to repair the ships that are in that strike group, including the carrier itself … And so when those are tied to a specific time, the yard is expecting it to be there. All that is highly disruptive.”

The Pentagon may be anxious to move the USS Gerald R Ford ASAP as it is also suffering from a backed-up sewage system.

KIDNAPPED!

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On New Year’s Eve, President Maduro of Venezuela gave an interview to veteran journalist Ignacio Ramonet. He did it while driving his car through the streets of Caraas. In the video, his wife Cilia Flores is sitting in the back. They all wear their seatbelts.

“To the American people, I want to say: here you have a friendly government. I know the US pretty well – I’ve driven in New York, Boston, Philadelphia, New Jersey, Queens, Manhattan. Washington! I’ve driven there a lot … Constitution Avenue is beautiful. And Pennsylvania Avenue, with its statue of Bolívar. The Lincoln Memorial! Monumental beauty…”

It’s a somewhat surreal scene. There are three cameras recording it, one on the dashboard and two on the wing mirrors. At one point Maduro takes his hands off the wheel for a long time, to present Ramonet with a baseball cap, bearing a message of peace. Is this a self-driving car? Or is it being towed, as in a Hollywood movie?

Two days later, Maduro received a high-level Chinese delegation in Caracas. Qiu Xiaoqi, special envoy for Latin America, met him for over three hours of talks about their countries’ strategic relationship, and building a multi-polar world.

The following morning, shortly after midnight, the US launched its unprovoked, full-scale attack.

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According to US General Dan Caine, chairman of the joint chiefs, more than 150 US aircraft were involved in the assault on Venezuela. Included in the inventory were F-22s, F-35s, F-28s, E-18s, E-2s, and B-1 bombers. Their targets were the electric system and the air defences around Caracas.

Fuerte Tiuna, the main military base in Caracas, was bombed. La Carlota Air Base was bombed and apparently disabled. The airport at El Hatillo was bombed, as was the Air Base at Barquisimeto. The Federal Legislative Palace in Caracas was struck, as were the Ministry of Defence and General Staff buildings. A ship in the harbour of La Guaira was destroyed. The private airport of Charallave and the Higuerote Military Helicopter Base were both bombed and disabled.

Much of Caracas was reported to be without power.

The US also bombed the Mountain Barracks, apparently aiming to destroy the grave of former president Hugo Chávez. But the great coup was achieved by US “special forces”, whose helicopters landed unmolested in Fuerte Tiuna, raided a house, and captured the President and First Lady. Both were hustled aboard the choppers and flown to New York, where they face charges of running a drug cartel and possessing a machine gun. During his DEA ‘perp walk’ in New Jersey, Chavez gave photographers a thumbs-up and wished them, in English, a happy new year.

Venezuelan reports say at least 80 people were killed. The US helicopters’ unimpeded landing at Caracas’ largest military base, and the total failure of the Maduros’ security detail, suggest incompetence or treason. Cuba has declared two days of mourning for 32 Cuban officers who died in the US attack. Like Aristide and Noriega, one more Latin American leader has been grabbed and spirited away by the Americans. Like Noriega, Maduro will likely spend the rest of his life in jail.

What has this demonstrated? It shows that the US has a large, expensive military and can use it to achieve tactical goals. It suggests frivolousness, on Maduro’s part: in a time of extreme danger, he was residing in an official residence, with his wife. Fidel Castro slept in a different house every night during crisis periods because he knew the US aimed to find and kill him. Maduro knew there was a $50 million US bounty on his head. He’d witnessed the 2002 coup against Chávez, where the high-ranking military betrayed their president. Chávez was kidnapped and held hostage for a couple of days. The coup plotters aimed to send him to the US. But a popular rebellion made that impossible; the bulk of the military remained loyal; Chávez was freed.

It is too late for that, in Maduro’s case. Venezuela has suffered an embarrassing defeat. The US says it bore no casualties at all. Meanwhile the BBC, a disgraceful wrack of a once-great enterprise, has instructed its minions not to call Maduro’s kidnapping a kidnapping. “To ensure clarity and consistency in our reporting, please follow these guidelines: ‘Captured’ – Please attribute this to the US description of the operation; ‘Seized’ – acceptable for use in our own reporting where appropriate; Avoid using ‘Kidnapped’.”

What has this achieved? This is a different question. People in the west – especially politicians and journalists – tend to think very emotionally. They do not reason well, and genuinely believe that the world’s problems are caused by a few bad apples: “dictators” like Maduro, Putin, and Xi. If only these “dictators” can be removed and punished, their countries will become liberal democracies, upon which our billionaires may feast.

Well, these emotional types have got their wish. Our “special forces”, renowned for their dignity and valour, have captured a “dictator”. The US attack attempted to kill defence minister Vladimir Padrino Lopez, but failed to do so. Minister of the interior Diosdado Cabello and Vice President Delcy Rodríguez also survived. Rodríguez headed straight to a meeting of the National Defence Council where she denounced Maduro’s kidnapping, and insisted he was still president. The Supreme Court later ruled that she should assume the presidency for up to ninety days.

Rodríguez has a reputation for being more Chávista than Maduro. Some say she is more Chávista than Chávez. Craig Murray reports that her father, a leftist rebel, was tortured to death in a CIA jail. The US president claims that “we” will run things from now on, and that Rodríguez will be his loyal supporter. The English Daily Mail asserts that Rodríguez is directly connected to Eric Prince, and conspired to betray Maduro. The US secretary of state says no more military action is planned. US oil companies, who the president claims will spend billions revitalizing the Venezuelan oil industry, seem in no rush to do so.

Will the Bolivarian Revolution collapse? Let us wait and see.

NOBLE CONTRASTS

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On 29 December, US Operation Southern Spear killed two more men in a boat. And the US allegedly attacked a Venezuelan port with drones. I write allegedly because the only source for this claim is the Dear Leader himself, who told a radio interviewer that the US had “knocked out” some type of “big facility where ships come from.” At a Mar-a-Lago event for the Israeli prime minister, he elaborated: “There was a major explosion in the dock area where they load the boats up with drugs … They load the boats up with drugs, so we hit all the boats and now we hit the area. It’s the implementation area. There’s where they implement. And that is no longer around.” A spokesperson for Special Operations Command, which oversees US operations in the Caribbean, said “Special Operations did not support this operation…” CNN reported that the CIA was responsible for the drone attack.

Did the attack really happen? The Venezuelan goverment has not denounced it. Venezuelan media have not reported on it. Despite the $50 million US bounty on his head, President Maduro continues hoeing his official row: he made no mention of any CIA operation, during an hourlong speech on Tuesday at an international leadership school for women.

But the blockade is certainly having an effect. Press TV – an Iranian news agency – reports that medicine prices have soared. El Pais – an outlet which opposes the Bolivarian revolution to the max – also reports on soaring prices, and admits they are a result, not of socialist mismanagement, but of the US sanctions and blockade. There have been other articles along these lines, the message being, never mind a US invasion, what concerns people most is making ends meet… This seems like concern trolling to me. Yes, economic hardships are horrible to bear, and serious journalists have tried to estimate the number of Venezuelan deaths caused by US sanctions. But a barrage of cruise missiles fired at the civilian coast will be infinitely worse.

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Four UN rapporteurs condemed the blockade as “an act of illegal armed aggression,” and said that those responsible for killing 104 people at sea must be held responsible. And on 22 December, President Maduro sent a letter to the other heads of state of Latin America and the Caribbean. In it he urged them to condemn the 104 acts of murder and the ongoing piracy, and to demand an end to the US blockade. His letter ends, “To defend Venezuela today is to defend peace, international legality and the stability of the world.” How many of Maduro’s colleagues will stand up and demand an end to the blockade in the coming year?

In case of any doubt as to why these acts of gross cruelty and stupidity are ongoing, why, there is money to be made! Slimmed-down former pol Mike Pompeo has found a new humanitarian cause to champion: Dick Cheney’s old company, Halliburton. Apparently Halliburton have failed to make as much money as they would have liked, so naturally they are pursuing an Investor-State-Dispute-Settlement claim against Venezuela. Pompeo thinks that Halliburton’s interests should be prioritized when the US takes over the country. In Naked Capitalism, Nick Corbishly reports on how entirely bogus Halliburton’s claims are. Venezuela withdrew from ISDS agreements years ago, and Cheney’s company stopped doing business there because of US sanctions. No matter! Helliburton think they have a good chance to make money from nothing here. Meanwhile Jack Poulson reports on the former CIA Venezuela chief of station, who has reinvented himself as a DC lobbyist, and is poaching some of the secretary of state’s client list of angry Latin American expatriates. Money to be made!

Naked Capitalism is very good on the Venezuelan story. On Christmas Day they ran an excellent piece by Curro Jimenez, regarding the Venezuelan and Honduran elections, and the similiar problems the vote counting encountered. In both countries a left-wing government was in office, and in both cases an electronic count fracas encouraged the right to claim victory.

The crew of the runaway tanker, Bella-1, having refused to submit to US piracy, have painted a Russian tricolor flag on the side of their vessel. According to Euro News, “Washington had obtained a court order permitting seizure based on the tanker’s history of moving Iranian crude, but the flag complicates enforcement under maritime law … The UN Convention on the Law of the Sea permits authorities to board ships flying false flags or operating without valid registration. If Russia formally registered Bella 1, forcible boarding could trigger diplomatic tensions.”

And Lloyds List reports that a very large crude carrier owned by China, the VLCC Thousand Sunny, is on course for Venezuela and will enter the blockade zone in January. And that another Chinese-flagged carrier, the VLCC Xing Ye, “is currently slow steaming off French Guiana.” These vessels are not sanctioned, and there is no court order against them. What will the blockaders do, when they arrive?

Let us end on a positive note! Telesur tells the story of Dr. Humberto Fernández-Morán – a Venezuelan scientist who in the 1960s gained global acclaim for inventing the diamond knife, a revolutionary tool in electron microscopy. The Doctor was reportedly offered the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine – but on condition that he renounce his Venezuelan citizenship, and become a US national. This the Good Doctor refused to do! “Quédense con su premio Nobel que yo me quedo con mi nacionalidad venezolana,” President Maduro recently quoted Fernández-Morán as saying.

It was probabaly unnecessary for Maduro to mention the current recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize, who wants her country to be bombed by the Americans. Fernández-Morán didn’t get a Nobel, and lived and died in Venezuela. The National University of Sciences is named after him.

Happy New Year!

WAR FOR XMAS?

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This is not the first time the western powers have blockaded Venezuela. In 1902, Britain and its perennial allies Germany and Italy blockaded Venezuela for three months, after Venezuela – then one of the poorest countries in Latiin America – defaulted on its foreign debts. Wiley’s Online Libary describes this as “classic gunboat diplomacy“

Most of the voices we hear in this matter are western ones – US government reps, mainstream media, the blogosphere – so it’s good to hear a Venezuelan speak about the situation: in Counterpunch, a Caracas-based filmmaker offers a local response.

A second oil tanker, the M/F Centuries, also flagged in Panama, has been seized by the US. The Venezuelan government declared this piracy. But the GCaptain site reports that Chevron continues production in Venezuela “without disruption.” So the blockade is a selective one. And a third tanker, the Bella-1, en route to Venezuela, has refused to submit to boarding by the US Coast Gard, and outrun the blockade. Bella-1 is a Chinese vessel. It will be interesting to see how China responds to this attempted act of piracy, and what the US does when the Bella-1 leaves port, bound for China, full of crude oil.

In an announcement to strike fear into the hearts of narco-terrorists the world over, the Navy has announced that it will create a new “Golden Fleet” of “Trump Class” battleships. I urge you to visit the website which the Department of War has created for this “new class of large surface combatants with the most destructive fire power of any surface ship to ever sail.” because I doubt that it will ever be much more than a website (plus a multi-billion dollar money pit). The US is unable to keep up with its own orders for nuclear subs. Here’s a GAO report detailing the difficulties the Navy has in building ships of any kind. Nevertheless we’re assured the the USS Defiant will bristle with high-tech rail guns, directed energy weapons, and hypersonic missiles (weapons the US does not yet possess).

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The GAO also reports that the US Navy’s fire prevention is not fit for purpose. It has been outsourced to contractors, and the Navy can no longer extinguish catastrophic fires such as the one which consumed the USS Bonhomme Richard as she sat in dock.

The US continues to augment its forces surrounding Venezuela. A new SOF agreement will reactivate its military bases in the democratic haven of Paraguay. Vijay Prashad has written about the extent to which Trinidad and Tobago face becoming a militarized dependent of the US and Exxon-Mobil. And Reuters has published a comic “explainer”: “Venezuela’s Billions in Distressed Debt: Who’s in Line to Collect.” Capitalists, rejoice! Once Venezuela has been sanctioned, blockaded, and carpet-bombed, you can pick through the remains…

Will the US attack? The longer the blockade flotilla floats, the more money is wasted. And the mission’s overall capability (to do whatever it is meant to do) degrades. In response to western attacks on ships registered in third countries, Russia is said to be flying the flag on an increasing number of tankers. It doesn’t need Venezuelan oil, but China does. What if China re-flags the Bella-1 as an openly Chinese vessel, before she sets sail?

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This writer predicts no war this year. The USS Defiant ain’t quite ready. Beware war early next year, when the US suggests a round of negotiations. And take into account that the privateers don’t just have to fight the Bolivarian Armed Forces, and the militia, but a determined crew of several hundred bikers who have assembled in Caracas. “We are pacifists, We want peace,” declared a participant dressed as a pirate. “But we are prepared for war.”

BLOCKADE

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The US has declared war. The leader of the world’s free peoples has posted on social media, “Venezuela is completely surrounded by the largest Armada ever assembled in the History of South America. For the theft of our Assets, and many other reasons, including Terrorism, Drug Smuggling, and Human Trafficking, the Venezuelan Regime has been designated a FOREIGN TERRORIST ORGANIZATION. Therefore, today, I am ordering A TOTAL AND COMPLETE BLOCKADE OF ALL SANCTIONED OIL TANKERS going into, and out of, Venezuela.”

He added, “It [the blockade] will only get bigger, and the shock to them will be like nothing they have ever seen before.”

A declared blockade like this is an act of war. Venezuela is entitled to respond militarily. But what can it really do? If it sinks the USS Gravely, docked in Port of Spain a few miles from Venezuelan waters, imagine the western response. The US, astonished that one of its prime assets has been wrecked by a missile or a drone swarm, will lash out disproportionately, raining Tomahawk missiles on Venezuela’s civilian population. And the western media will unite to declare this an act of self-defence. In other words, another Gaza.

All Venezuela can do is wait. And while Venezuela waits, the clouds of American war continue to gather. Trinidad and Tobago have authorized the transit of US military aircraft through its airports and air space. And a US military refueling tanker, flying with its transponder turned off, almost hit a Jet Blue passenger plane departing Curaçao. Jet Blue says it will complain to the appropriate authorities. The air traffic controller involved told the Jet Blue pilot, “It has been outrageous with the unidentified aircraft within our air.” (It’s less than a year since a US army helicopter collided with a civilian airliner over Ronald Reagan National Airport, killing 67 people.)

Telesur reports that, in Peru, the unelected president has authorized the entry of U.S. military personnel. Armed with combat weapons, the US troops will be there all next year, conducting training exercises with Peruvian forces. As a result, the US may designate Peru a “major non-NATO ally.” Lucky Peru! I wonder what their troops will train to do. And in Chile, the son of a Nazi who escaped justice via one of the many rat lines, has been elected president. I cannot bring myself to link to that story.

However, the state-owned oil company, Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), say that oil exports continue as usual, unaffected by the seizure of the Panamanian tanker or the declared blockade. And President Maduro has complained to the Secretary-General of the United Nations, António Guterres, about the US threats. No doubt Guterres will leap into characteristic immediate and decisive action! More impressively, Julian Assange has sued the Nobel Peace Prize for giving more than a million dollars to a war-monger, breaking Swedish law in the process.

Noble Assange! What he went through would have broken many a man. And he is still fighting for the truth, and to prove that words have meaning. His legal brief states that the Nobel committee’s decision to award La Machado the Peace Prize — and the 11 million Swedish Kroner ($1.18 million USD) reward which accompanies it — means that “there is a real risk that funds derived from Nobel’s endowment have been or will be… diverted from their charitable purpose to facilitate aggression, crimes against humanity, and war crimes.”

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The above map shows a Russian tanker, Hyperion, approaching Venezuela yesterday. The declaration of war concludes, “America will not allow … a Hostile Regime to take our Oil, Land, or any other Assets, all of which must be returned to the United States IMMEDIATELY. Thank you for your attention to this matter!” (Not that it matters, but Venezuelan oil reserves were nationalized not by Chavez or Maduro, but by a liberal, pro-US regime in 1976. Chavez and Maduro nationalized other US oil company assets.)

If you only read one of these links, I recommend that you click on this Counterpunch article by Michael K Smith. The author makes many interesting points, and writes knowledgeably about the formation of the Venezuelan military: “The pre-revolutionary Venezuelan armed forces were fragmented in divisions and brigades. Hugo Chavez organized the country in regions, and insured that in each region there was a military structure with all the necessary components: Army, Navy, National Guard, popular militias, and the people. If one region comes under attack, it now has the capacity to defend itself alone. There is no need for Caracas to move in units from somewhere else.

“In addition to this redundant self-sufficiency, Venezuela enjoys complete unity of purpose and frequent contact between the government and the troops. President Maduro visits all the barracks personally, showing up at dawn. He freely shares with the troops, runs with them, and does military exercises with them. Many militia members have been Chavistas since childhood, forming unbreakable bonds of loyalty to each other and the Bolivarian Revolution.”

The great risk for any Latin American president, elected or otherwise, is that the US can turn his or her military against them. This is a distinct possibility in Brasil and Colombia. It has already happened in Peru. As far as one can tell, it is highly unlikely in Venezuela. Kennedy managed a diplomatic end to his Cuban embargo before a nuclear war erupted. Let us hope similiar spirits prevail in Washington, because the US has picked the worst possible place to FAFO, as our betters are wont to say.

PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN

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Apologies for the reference to the animatronic robot ride at Disneyland, and to others who have used this headline. As the reader is probably aware, US forces seized a Panama-flagged oil tanker in Venezuelan waters four days ago. This followed an invasion of Venezuelan air space by US fighter jets. The tanker, the M/T Skipper, was en route to Cuba.

The raid on the Skipper was led by the US Coast Guard, who are not officially part of the US navy fleet blockading Venezuela and killing people aboard small boats. The president was quite excited by the Skipper’s size. “We have just seized a tanker on the coast of Venezuela, a large tanker, very large, the largest one ever seized actually.” When asked what the US would do with the confiscated oil, the statesman replied, “We keep it, I guess.” The US Attorney General tweeted that the FBI, Homeland Security and Coast Guard had “carried out a seizure warrant” for a tanker used to transport sanctioned oil from Venezuela and Iran.

The reader may wonder what jurisdiction FBI, DHS, and US Coast Guard can possibly claim on the high seas, or in Venezuelan waters. Well, the United States claims jurisdiction everywhere, all over the planet. Here is a map issued a few years back by the US Dept of Defense (as it then was known), depicting our entire world with US commanders’ areas of responsibility.

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My country, England, resides under the control of USEUCOM, which has responsibility for all US military actions and actors between Greenland and Vladivostok. Venezuela is ruled by USSOUTHCOM, as are all Latin American countries except Mexico. Moon of Alabama makes the valid observation that USCENTCOM may be very annoyed with USSOUTHCOM regarding a “blatant act of piracy.” Here is another map, showing those US command and outreach centres in more detail (it is five years old, so doesn’t include the new US bastions in the Philippines, Argentina, Ecuador, and the Galapagos Islands):

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What is the purpose of all this money and manpower and militariness? And, specifically, what is the purpose of Operation Southern Spear? First, the US government said the flotilla was was a drug interdiction project. That has failed (in contrast, the Venezuelan government just announced it has destroyed thirty drug-ferrying planes on the ground, and seized more than 65,000 kilos of drugs so far this year). Then the purpose was revealed to be regime change: to make Maduro run away, so that the newly-minted Nobel peace laureate can be crowned unelected president. That too has failed. Now the goal is piracy? To steal neutral vessels in foreign seas? This too is guaranteed to fail. Oil Price reports that the US intends to seize more tankers. But this is neither a strategy or a plan, merely a flailing tactic.

At the outset of the flotilla, I thought it might be like Reagan’s Big Pine operation against Nicaragua: to intimidate a smaller country by a massive display of military force, without starting a war. The problem is, the world leader is constantly given options, by “experts” in the foreign policy field, all of whom have agendas. The peace prize lady and the secretary of state promised him that Venezuela was easy pickins. Maduro will run away! His military will betray him! The people will rise up! The experts told him this because projection, because this is what they would do: betray their country, then flee to a safe haven on the first helicopter out.

This fantasy of Maduro’s running away is shared by western politicians and media of all stripes. “Chuck Schumer” – whatever that is – stated yesterday, “You know, obviously, if Maduro would just flee on his own, everyone would like that.” Everyone? Maybe everyone “Chuck” knows.

This is an expensive op. How to begin to calculate the cost? The Cuban media claimed last week Southern Spear costs 200 million dollars a day. Other sources suggest the price is a lot higher. Meanwhile Schumer and his fellow congress-critters have just stripped the right-to-repair out of the massive US military spending bill. This means that the sailors aboard the flotilla’s warships and the marines who hope to fly the F-35s won’t be able to repair them if something goes wrong. Instead, the manufacturer, or contractor, or supplier, will send someone to fix it.

As an example of how ridiculous this is, and how detrimental to US war-fighting, The Register cites one example aboard the Southern Spear’s flagship, the USS Gerald R. Ford: “In the Navy’s case, [the desire for right-to-repair] was motivated by incredibly costly repairs needed for the USS Gerald R. Ford, a nuclear-powered aircraft carrier with a crew of 4,500 that, at one point, had six of eight kitchen ovens out of commission. The support contract for ship maintenance barred sailors from fixing the ovens themselves, even if they could do it.” 

The longer the US waits, the more things will break down, the more kitchen ovens will fail, the more troops will be due for leave, or rotation. This so-called “blockade” stage might last into 2026, but entropy will have its way, and the longer the fleet waits, the more its readiness will deteriorate. (The same is presumably true of the Venezuelan ground and air forces, waiting on high alert to resist an invasion.)

President Lula of Brasil and President Petro of Colombia have both taken spine-stiffening medicine. Lula told O Globo that he held a “secret converation” last week with Maduro, and “indicated his readiness to assist the Venezuelan government amid threats of US attacks and a possible invasion.” Having sanctioned Petro and accused him of being a “drug trafficking leader”, the leader of the free world issued further threats, stating the Colombian leader would face “some big problems if he doesn’t wise up … He better wise up or he’ll be next.”

What next? After the blockade fails, what then? War with Venezuela? Or war with Venezuela, Colombia, and Brasil?

HOW MUCH DOES A WAR COST?

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As Operation Southern Spear grinds on with its war of attrition against tiny boats, there has been some speculation as to how much it all costs. The Cuban newspaper Granma estimates that the US is spending $200 million a day to keep its troops, ships and aircraft poised for battle in the Caribbean. The US site Defence One concentrates on the total value of the assets committed to the mission:

“The first task force of warships deployed to the operation, which included an amphibious assault ship and even a nuclear powered attack submarine, cost $19.8 billion to buy. They were later joined by the aircraft carrier Gerald R. Ford, which cost $12.9 billion to buy after $4.7 billion for research and development. Its three escorts pushed the purchase price of the Southern Spear fleet past $40 billion. 

“This fleet is backed by at least 83 land-based aircraft that have been documented in the deployment so far, collectively worth at least $1.8 billion: ten F-35Bs ($109 million apiece), seven Reaper drones ($33 million each), three P-8 Poseidons ($145 million each), and least one AC-130J gunship ($165 million). 

… “That’s just the purchase price. The estimates for every hour of the carrier’s operation is roughly $333,000, while each escort consumes a comparatively cheaper $9,200 per hour. For the aircraft, the cost per flight hour is roughly $40,000 for the F-35s and the AC-130J; $29,900 for the P-8s; and $3,500 for the Reaper drones. 

“Then there are the munitions used in the attacks themselves. Analysis of the strike videos show that U.S. forces have fired Hellfire missiles (about $150,000 to $220,000 apiece) AGM-176 Griffins ($127,333 in FY2019 costs), and perhaps GBU-39B Small Diameter Bombs (roughly $40,000 each).

“And on the personnel side, there is the pay and benefits for the roughly 15,000 US service members who have been deployed so far in the operation, including 5,000 ashore in Puerto Rico and 2,200 Marines aboard ships.”

Defence One proceeds to a bizarre cost-benefit analysis comparing the expense of the US mission and missiles with the value of the alleged “drug” boats. But that is not why Operation Southern Spear is there. The English Guarniad writes, “Maduro says the real reason for Trump’s Venezuela fixation is oil – is he right?” Needless to say, a silly and predictable propaganda piece ensues (“Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro, says…”). What’s interesting is that the mainstream media are beginning to report that this is a war for oil – when they report at all.

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The above map comes from a US Council of Foreign Relations article, “Mapping the US Military Buildup Near Venezuela.” Distrubingly, it shows a US military presence on civilian airfields in Aruba and Curacao, a few miles from the Venezuelan coast. Military.com provides a timeline of the US buildup and the attacks on small boats. The murder spree in the Caribbean continues to ripple the otherwise calm, reflecting pool that is the Mind of the Mainstream Media. The Secretary of War and his Boss are blamed for killing unidentified civilians, and in particular a cruel “double tap” which murdered two survivors. What short memories these commentators have. Don’t they remember why a certain sainted US president earned his “O’Bomber” sobriquet? Murdering civilians is still a crime, no matter which White House does it.

Meanwhile, Norwegian peace activists are protesting Norway’s award of a peace prize to La Macado, who continues to call for an attack on her country by the US or Israel. And 6 December saw demonstrations against war with Venezuela in 65 US cities, Chile, Mexico, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, Spain, Colombia, and the Basque Country.

The US deadline for him to leave has passed, and President Maduro is still there. He continues to make daily public appearances around the country. And he’s reported on his phone call with Trump. “About 10 days ago, the White House called Miraflores Palace, and I had a conversation with President Donald Trump. It was respectful and cordial. If that call means that steps are being taken toward a respectful dialogue between our countries, then dialogue and diplomacy are welcome.”

The US attempt to impose a no-fly zone has so far failed. The Venezuelan minister of the interior announced last week that 1,474 flights had taken place over national territory, despite the US ban. And Telesur (a government-funded news source) reports that Venezuela is “the country with the highest economic growth in Latin America for 2025.” Revenues not only from oil and mining, but also from construction and manufacturing, are up. Most impressive of all, I think, is that the country is almost self-sufficient in terms of food.

And the president of Colombia seems less timorous than he did a week ago. Petro no longer calls for Madero’s exit; at a public event with the military, he declared, “Here … we defend sovereignty with our lives, and we warn that Colombia will not be threatened, and whoever goes from threat to action will only awaken the American jaguar that is asleep in the heart of the people.”

  

WAR CRIMES? OR JUST PLAIN MURDER?

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Operation Southern Spear hasn’t officially struck the mainland yet: the only killings have been of approx. 100 individuals in small boats. These killings have been recorded on video by the Americans. The president has shared a couple on the internet, and stirred a certain amount of outrage. The US secretary of war is said to have ordered the killing of shipwrecked survivors. To some, these vicious acts constitute “war crimes.”

But are they? The US has not declared war since 5 June, 1942. It has been violently aggressive multiple times since then, of course, but those were “police actions” or wars against concepts. In the absence of “war” there can be no “war crimes.” What the US is doing is called murder.

Preparations for expanded murder continue. The US flotilla remains in place; it is said that some 20,000 US troops are now present in the Caribbean. The US makes increasing use of civilian airports in El Salvador, Puerto Rico and now the Dominican Republic. It is also building what it describes as a radar installation in Tobago, a few miles from the Venezuelan coast. Newsweek reports on reactivated US bases in the region, and anticipates that Ecuador may join the happy band providing “possible cooperative security locations” soon, despite Ecuador’s constitutional prohibition on US bases.

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Venezuela remains on high alert. Two days ago the Miami Herald reported on a Venezuelan/Iranian drone project: in 2006, the two countries signed a technical-military agreement. A factory was established in Maracay, and since then the Venezuelans have been manufacturing drones based on Iranian designs. The US report does not estimate how many surveillance and kamikaze drones have been produced. Another English-language source claims that “the Iranian military now maintains a presence at Venezuela’s El Libertador Air Base, which houses a facility dedicated to drone manufacturing. This base trains Venezuelan personnel to operate advanced models like the Mohajer‑6 and Shahed‑131 drones.” No evidence for this is provided.

John Perry and Roger D Harris write at antiwar.com that operation Southern Spear is meant to trigger a domino effect, overthrowing the governments of Colombia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and – who knows? – maybe Brasil and Mexico as well. Just because this is insane does not mean it is not the plan. Meanwhile the pretence that the pending attack involves drugs strategy has surely evaporated: last week Trump openly intervened in the Honduran elections, pardoned its drug-trafficking former president, and expressed his preference for the narco’s party.

Yesterday, Trump told reporters he had spoken to his Venezuelan counterpart. There has been no US nor Venezuelan readout of this call. Serious countries, such as China, usually release a written report of contacts between their leaders and the leaders of other countries; so it’s possible the call was an imaginary one. According to Fox News, Trump delivered “a stern ultimatum to Nicolás Maduro to leave Venezuela immediately.” An equally reliable source speculates that Maduro has fled to Brasil, and shows us the flight path taken by his Presidential Airbus.

One doubts that Maduro has fled anywhere. All last week he continued to make public appearances. Apparently, Trump took offence during their “conversation” and then, via social media, declared Venezuelan air space closed.

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Several major airlines treated this as a serious threat, and cancelled their Venezuela schedules. The Venezuelan government told Iberia, Turkish Air, TAP and other carriers that they would lose their landing rights if schedules were not restored. Venezuelan planes were reported to be flying without incident, but AlJazeera provides a map showing no flights over national territory. Attacking civilian aircraft, or threatening to do so, is terrorism.

The American Prospect has a good article by Maureen Tkacik, “The $30 Billion Identity Theft of Venezuela: How Juan Guaidó sucked a weary nation dry, and primed it for the current US-led assault.” It’s worth reading. to be aware how much damage has been done to Venezuela by the US and the EU, not just via sanctions and sabotage, but by outright theft. And William Schryver suggests on his Substack that Trump may be “The Imaginary Peace President.”

On the Pacific coast, a massive, ocean-going state-owned vessel was recently docked at the port of Corinto, in Nicaragua. A warship? No, it was the Silk Road Ark — China’s latest ocean-going hospital ship, with capacity to perform more than 60 types of medical procedures and see 300 patients at a time. The Orinoco Tribune reports here on the visit : “Silk Road Ark was docked in Nicaragua’s Corinto Port from 10 to 14 November. During that time, Chinese doctors worked together with Nicaraguan specialists to see 1,125 patients from the Chinandega area free of charge.”

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Returning to Venezuela in this brighter mood, let us remember El Sistema, the Bolivarian project to teach children instruments and to appreciate classical music: if you can pardon the rather syrupy voice-over, there is a good documentary about El Sistema here. And the music is great!

UPDATE 2 Dec 2025 —

The US attempt at imposing a no-fly zone continues to collapse. Panamanian and Colombian passenger flights come and go, as does the direct Conviasa flight to St. Petersburg. And today President Maduro’s Aeronautical Authority granted permission for a US carrier, Eastern, to fly twice weekly from Phoenix, AZ, to Caracas. Eastern is in the business of exporting deportees; if Trump’s flight ban were serious, hundreds of Venezuelans would remain trapped in the US, unable to repatriate.

The treatment of these people has been capricious and cruel. In 2021, the Biden administration gave Venezuelans Temporary Protected Status (TPS): even those without legal US residency received work authorization and protection from deportation. By 2025, more than 250,000 Venezuelan nationals were residing in the US, covered by TPS. Now their status is illegal again, and they are being deported.

Roger Harris has a good piece about US policy and the no-fly zone at Counterpunch. And at Naked Capitalism, Nick Corbishly writes perceptively about the failure of the mainstream media – so far – to fall in lockstep with US war plans.

HAPPY BIRTHDAY, MR. PRESIDENT!

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Though I am not quite as lovely a vision as Marllyn Monroe singing her birthday wishes to John F. Kennedy, I would still like to offer my best regards to Nicolas Maduro, President of Venezuela, on the occasion of his 63rd Birthday. Unnamed individuals at the White House have proposed celebrating the day by dropping leaflets on Caracas, warning Maduro to run away, and reminding Venezuelans of the fifty million dollar bounty on their president’s head.

Five global leaders have sent Maduro their best wishes: the presidents of Russia, China, Cuba, Belarus, and Nicaragua. Is that the complete list? Those are all the birthday greetings which Telesur reports. This seems a little stingy on the part of “global leaders”. After all, my country made itself a birthday present of two billion dollars in gold Venezeuela had stored in the Bank of England. You’d think Sir Kier could at least have sent a card.

When I wrote to my Oregon democrat congressman to oppose aggression against Venezuela, he emailed me Maduro is a “brutal dictator.” I asked for further information, which has yet to arrive. What if he’s right? Well, what’s it to him? The head-chopper president of Syria just received a warm welcome at the White House and the Kremlin! Who elected him? Who elected KBS? Who elected Ursula Vonder Leyen? Unless you are a citizen or resident of Venezuela, none of this stuff is your business. I am a resident of the US and a subject of His Britannic Majesty, and it is my business to oppose stupid things the US and the UK do, such as blockading and bombing foreign countries, and reducing them to ruin.

And it seems a full-scale blockade is the latest US idea. Last week the USS Stockdale blocked the path of a Russian freighter, the Seahorse (some sources say the Seahorse was later able to dock and unload naptha in a Venezuelan port). The White House yet again authorised CIA actions within the country, and there was a huge explosion at the Petrocedeno oil refinery (no doubt coincidentally, this happened the same day as US ATTACMS missiles tried to strike energy infrastructure in Russia, and were shot down).

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Above is a flight radar map showing the arrivals of five US military aircraft off the Venezuelan coast. The RC-135W is a spy plane intented to “produce theater and national level intelligence with near real-time on-scene collection, analysis and dissemination capabilities.” The other four warplanes are either Super Hornet fighter jets from the USS Gerald Ford, or F-35 fighter jets from Jose Aponte de la Torre Airport in Puerto Rico.

The Washington Post and Boston Globe are all in on regime change in Venezuela. Other internet voices warn of the extreme difficulties the US will face if the US goes to war there: this article claims there are substantial Colombian rebel bases in Venezela, full of ELN guerillas who will be more than pleased to fight the gringos. I haven’t seen any reliable evidence that this is so (though the US government says it is). Simplicius, who writes at length about the Ukraine war, just published a sensible and disturbing overview of things.

It seems especially discourteous, IMO, for the presidents of neighbouring Brasil and Colombia not to wish Maduro happy birthday. In fact, given the impending slew of US war crimes, both “leftist” leaders are behaving in a thoroughly craven way. President Lula of Brasil was apparently responsible for blocking Venezuelan membership of BRICS. Now he tepldly opposes war against his neighbour, and is in no position to criticize anyone after yet another militarized police massacre in Rio.

President Petro of Colombia is even more timorous. Though a former revolutionary himelf, he refuses to support the Bolivarian Revolution and has proposed that President Maduro go into exile, so that a “national unity” government chosen by the Americans may run things. Petro is guilty here of “projection.” If the Americans came after him, or the army turned against him, Petro would run away to Spain. So he thinks Maduro should do that, too.

Petro is an intellectual. After he flees to Madrid, he can get a job teaching at some university. He can appear on TV. Maduro is a former bus driver. He is not a member of the rootless cosmpolitan elite, and will never be invited to Sundance. What is he supposed to do? Become a bus driver again? Where – Cuba or Nicaragua? If Venezuela is conquered, they will be next. Better to stay put and prepare to fight. There are worse things than being at the forefront of the Bolivarian Revolution.

Since the election of Hugo Chavez, said Revolution has achieved 97% adult literacy; built five million homes; endured coups, imposter presidents, invasions and sabotage; and achieved 90% self-sufficiency in foodstuffs. Despite US/EU sanctions, theft of assets by the English, and now a blockade, the Venezuelan economy including the non-oil sector continues to grow. Yet the health care system remains under enormous stress, and the country faces monumental challenges, even without this threat of constant war.

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Long live the Bolivarian project! Happy birthday, Mr. President!