Braid: Against all odds, the UCP is now in position to win the May election

It’s not exactly a resurrection but the United Conservative Party’s revival comes close. The party that was near death a year ago could now win a second Alberta election in May.

Under Premier Danielle Smith the UCP has finally moved ahead of the NDP, by 48 per cent to 45 per cent, according to a new poll from Marc Henry’s ThinkHQ.

Crucially, the UCP has momentum. Support rose four per cent in the past month, while the NDP dropped one per cent.

UCP fundraising has shot up along with popular support. They each raised more than $7 million in 2022 (for the UCP, including constituency associations and membership sales).

For nearly two years the NDP hammered the UCP in fundraising. Leader Rachel Notley’s party collected $6.4 million in 2021. The UCP was far back at $3.7 million.

Now, they’ve levelled out. Both parties will spend lavishly on the campaigns before the May 29 vote.

The UCP is already exploiting its huge advantage as government by pumping out thinly disguised campaign mailings, as well as TV and radio ads, all paid for by the public rather than the party.

None of this predicts a UCP walkaway in the election. Statistically, the parties are in a dead heat in this weirdly divided province. But the UCP now has to be considered a modest favourite to win a majority (44 seats or more in the 87 seat legislature.)

There’s no doubt the election will be decided within Calgary city limits.

The UCP has pulled slightly ahead of the NDP in the city, with 47 per cent compared to 45 per cent.

Outside the big cities, the UCP utterly dominates Alberta. It has 62 per cent support in the north, 67 per cent in central Alberta, and 51 per cent in the rural south.

Even in the somewhat shaky south, Smith’s party is 11 per cent ahead of the NDP.

The city of Edmonton is a lock for the NDP, with 58 per cent compared to 38 for the UCP.

So it all comes down to Calgary’s 26 ridings.

Some rural UCP members have been telling Smith’s caucus that they’re willing to sacrifice a chunk of their huge majorities by agreeing to Calgary-centric measures their constituents might not like.

Smith has already talked about huge projects, including rail service to Banff and an LRT line to the airport. And she’s friendly to a Flames arena deal between the city and the Calgary Sports and Entertainment Corp.

Some well-placed funding before the election wouldn’t be a shock.

Given the history of the past two years, the UCP’s resurgence is remarkable.

The UCP under Jason Kenney was running at 30 per cent support last year. The NDP was in the mid-40s.

On the UCP’s right flank, the Wildrose Independence Party had 16 per cent support in the summer of 2022.

The WIP backing rose to 20 per cent among “decided” voters.

There were fears that conservatism would sink once again into a split like the earlier rupture into Progressive Conservative and Wildrose parties.

The party itself was a mess, riven by division and mistrust over Premier Jason Kenney’s leadership, jolted by regular uprisings from party riding associations, threatened by bitter hostilities in the government caucus.

Kenney himself often polled as Canada’s least popular premier in national surveys.

Then came the weak leadership review, his resignation, and the bizarre leadership contest that pitted Danielle Smith and her sovereignty proposal against five candidates who said it was a disaster.

Smith took office last October with an anti-Ottawa platform opposed by the majority of Albertans, at least half of her own party, and key ministers in her cabinet.

Polls last October showed the divisive campaign further hurt the party, to the point where it might be permanently unelectable.

But Smith understood that it was crucial to win back support from WIP. The sovereignty pitch did it. The party that had 20 per cent support last year doesn’t even register in the ThinkHQ poll.

Smith’s “spacewalks,” as even staffers call her flights of rhetoric, haven’t hurt her as much as critics expected. The government’s relentless focus on inflation relief and health-care improvement may be cancelling out those controversies.

The election campaign will start in less than three months. Against the odds, Smith and the UCP are right in the thick of it.

Don Braid’s column appears regularly in the Herald.

Twitter: @DonBraid