Archive for the 'Uncategorized' Category

Immigration and your job

Everyone always talks about whether the current immigration is good or bad for society. If you are wealthy, it seems to come out great. If you are poor and uneducated, once again, you are screwed.

When immigrants come to town they bring cheaper labor (as a whole- I know some are very educated). This reduces the cost to produce labor intensive goods, like fruits and vegetables. The first farmer that started using immigrants had the benefit of cheaper labor, and made more money. Within short order the other farmers adopt the same techniques, and, in efforts to sell more goods, reduce their prices. Competition allows the lowest cost highest quality goods to move through the chain. Eventually these reach us. The good news is products are much cheaper in stores. Who benefits from this effect? Those who buy the most. While you can only eat so many fruits and vegetables, other labor intensive services can be consumed extensively. Everyone benefits from the low cost labor, but the more wealthy benefit more because they can buy more.

Economically, lower classes bear a large portion of the difficulties. Generally, there is small mobility in a job slot you are already in. If you are the weed whacker operator doing the landscaping at Intel, you could get moved up to driving the riding lawn mower, but good luck on CEO. Engineers can become project managers, but you won’t find a lot of janitors becoming engineers. You don’t have to take massive steps from day laborer to drywall installer to owner of a drywall company. The costs involved are relatively small, the training necessary to start is very small (although improvement can be done constantly).

When cheap labor comes into town, the supply glut depresses wages in jobs requiring the least skills first. As the wages drop, more and more people decide they won’t work for those wages and look for a better paying job. A secondary supply glut (generally smaller then the 1st) hits the jobs that are slightly more difficult, lowering the wages their also. This continues up until the moat is to difficult to cross due to education, capital requirements, or networking requirements. As a result, the earning power of the lower economic classes are hit hardest by the effects of immigration.

The net effect is that, as a trend, those who benefit the least from lower cost goods are the ones who suffer the most from wage depreciation.

If we want to insulate ourselves from the negative effects of immigration, we must get a moat between us and and competitors. Twenty years ago, the moat of education was sufficient. Now an influx of Indians trained in math and science has started to bridge that moat. We are importing doctors from other countries as well. Specialization has helped some create a sphere in which they do not have massive competition. We need to work on other economic moats if we wish to protect our earning power. Accumulated capital, used wisely, can provide a massive business advantage.

My father, a PE, did landscaping for a change of pace about 13 years ago, mainly sprinkler systems. As illegal immigrants showed up, they started to depress the profit margin in the business. My father jumped to more specialized projects that required greater capital investment and drew more heavily on his engineering knowledge. He is still doing very well, and he recommends that before we get into a business, make sure that illegal immigrants can’t be competing with us 1 week after they cross the border.
I am now thinking about how to widen the economic moat around myself.  I need more skills (bo staff skills, mustache growing skills), more capital (no negative savings rate for me, thank you very much), and more business connections (soon I will have 2).  There are a ton of dollar bills out there looking for a good home, and I want to provide that.

Peace out, hombres.

I’m Broke and Its All Your Fault!

I saw an article in Yahoo news that displayed all the brilliance of America’s media. As I read through the article, I was surprised at the lack of thought, and the use of different phrases to make it look like the borrowers are just people who had bad luck. The borrowers chose to take a great risk when they used “exotic” (reads “you probably can’t afford it”) loans. If they ever read a paper or watched news, they knew that rates were at the bottom, and could not feasibly go lower. Those who sell themselves into slavery and use the proceeds to live high for a day shouldn’t be surprised when the buyer comes. Apparently this writer thinks they should, and states how they are undeserving participants in a massive tragedy over which they had no control.

“I have three borrowers who desperately need to refinance and they aren’t going to be able to do it. They are going to lose their homes,” said Patrick Schwerdtfeger, a Walnut Creek mortgage broker for Windsor Capital.

I will interpret. I have three people who can’t afford their homes and nobody will loan them any money. They need to refinance to a lower rate. They got in at a low teaser rate because they wanted more house than they could afford or because they decided they wanted to spend their money on something else. Now those stinking bankers aren’t going to give loans to people who have a fantastic chance of going bankrupt in the near future. They’ll have to move into a neighborhood they can afford.

The intelligence continues.

Borrowers with blemished credit records and inadequate paperwork to verify their incomes are having the most trouble getting mortgages.

Here is another piece of sage reasoning. The media is all over banks because they made loans that people couldn’t afford to borrowers in the sub prime market. Now, apparently this writer thinks we should do it again. Banks don’t want to lend money to people who haven’t paid their bills on time in the past and those who are not likely to have the resources to pay them in the future (trouble verifying income). Given how many people lied on their loans in the first place, it is hard not to agree with the banks. I have a lot of respect for self employed people, part of it because they are able to work without a regular paycheck. Banks don’t want to assume that risk for free (and that is assuming people are having trouble verifying their income because of paperwork issues instead of the standard lying cheat reason).

The media is sure that the only way out of this mess is for the government to save us. Apparently, the government also has plans to save tourists in Vegas from appalling losses.

Other media stories point toward the trouble that the wealthy have buying a home. If you’re really wealthy, shouldn’t you be able to afford it? People with a $5,000,000 home (and corresponding mortgage) are in the rat race just as much as those with a $100,000 house. The media is claiming that people have learned that people know what they have done wrong, and are all penitent. On the other hand, people are trying to continue to live mortgaged to the hilt.

I read a idiotic article from a “financial adviser” which said you should always have as large a loan as possible out on your house. That is a great idea in the ideal world, where the stock market returns 11.8% a year, no one ever gets laid off or laid up, and real estate appreciates every year. In this world, it is looking like our grandparents aren’t as stupid as we thought they were. Reducing your exposure can help you keep your house during difficult times, and sleep well during all of them. The spring in my step and peace of mind I will get from knowing my house is paid off are worth the few percent a year.

Making Bunkbeds for my kids.

My kids are 3.5 and 2 years old and I have another on the way. The boys are going to be sleeping in one room so I need to get them a bunkbed. I looked at buying and I think that I will just build. A bunch of 2×6’s aren’t that expensive, and I figure I will finish it in tung oil. The bunk beds on craigslist seem to be very overpriced. I will take pictures to let you you how it goes, in case you ever need to do something like it.  Updating-  Plans with pictures here.

On another note, we had sunrocket, which pooped itself out. We are now going with a calling card, tel3advantage. We will let you know how it goes. So far it seems to work. They charge 1.9 cents a minute with no fees, and the connection was clearer then sunrocket. More to come.



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