• Published by H.M. Gartley in the early 1930s in his book titled “Profits in the Stock Market.”
• The system is based on the idea that markets move in recurring and predictable patterns and that these patterns can be used to identify profit potential in the market.
• Gartley pattern, as described by Mr. Gartley, had no relationship with the Fibonacci ratios. As for me, the primary reason why only I use this system as a pattern recognition tool and as a way to confirm if some levels are significant in the chart.
• Larry Pesavento improved the original pattern by relating the swing points with the Fibonacci levels. Fibonacci ratios was used to anticipate the possible swing points
• The idea behind recurring patterns goes against Wyckoff’s first rule which states that markets and individual securities do not behave in the same way twice. This means that each market cycle is unique and that historical price patterns may not necessarily repeat themselves in the future.

Why Harmonics?

Harmonic patterns provide traders with valuable information about potential market movements. Harmonic patterns are based on the premise that price movements in financial markets follow specific geometric patterns and ratios.

These patterns can provide insights into potential price reversals, continuation, or consolidation.

One of the key benefits of using harmonic patterns in technical analysis is that they help traders identify potential entry and exit points for their trades. By analyzing these patterns, traders can identify support and resistance levels and use them to determine their stop loss and take profit levels.

In addition to providing entry and exit signals, harmonic patterns can also help traders manage their risk. By using Fibonacci ratios, traders can calculate potential price targets and adjust their position sizes accordingly to minimize their risk exposure.

Another advantage of using harmonic patterns in technical analysis is that they can be combined with other technical indicators to provide a more comprehensive trading strategy. For example, traders can use moving averages, trend lines, and other chart patterns to confirm the signals provided by harmonic patterns.

Harmonic patterns are a technical analysis tool used by traders to identify potential reversal points in the markets.

There are several types of harmonic patterns, including ABCD, bat, crab, butterfly, cypher, shark, three drives, and 5–0, they share some key similarities and differences.

Similarities:

All harmonic patterns are formed by a sequence of price swings that conform to specific Fibonacci ratios of retracements and extensions

All harmonic patterns have a specific set of rules that must be met in order to confirm the pattern.

Differences:

Each harmonic pattern has its own unique shape and structure, which makes them easily distinguishable from one another.

Each has its own specific Fibonacci ratios that govern its structure and shape.

Some harmonic patterns, such as the butterfly and cypher patterns, are more rare and less commonly observed in the markets, while others, such as the ABCD pattern, are more common and frequently observed.

Basic Harmonic Patterns:

ABCD

The ABCD pattern is the simplest and most commonly observed harmonic pattern that has two equal price legs, followed by a retracement, and then a final price leg that is equal in length to the first leg.

The pattern is confirmed when the final leg retraces to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the first leg, and is often used to identify potential reversal points in the markets.

It is the basis of the other more complex harmonic patterns.

The Gartley Pattern

The Gartley pattern is the most common harmonic chart pattern. The fib ratios on this pattern need not be exact, but the closer they are, the more reliable the pattern becomes.

Gartley’s patterns also called the two step pattern incorporates the classic ABCD pattern but they are a little bit more complicated. The Gartley 222 pattern is constructed by 5 pivot or swing points. The Gartley Patterns can be visualized as ‘W’ or ‘M’.

Accordingly, the resulting move can reach as far as 1.272 of the entire zigzag (ABCD) move, but its not always the case.

The Butterfly Pattern

The butterfly pattern is a relatively rare and and among the most complex harmonic pattern that is similar to the crab pattern, but has longer retracements and extensions. The pattern was discovered by Bryce Gilmore.

The pattern is confirmed when the final leg retraces to the 1.618 Fibonacci level of the initial move, and is often used to identify potential reversal points in the markets.

The Bat Pattern

The bat pattern is a more complex harmonic pattern that is based on the ABCD pattern, but has additional retracements and extensions making it more complex and less common. The pattern was identified by Scott Carney.

The pattern is confirmed when the final leg retraces to the 0.886 Fibonacci level of the initial move, and is often used to identify potential reversal points in the markets.

The Crab Pattern

The crab pattern is another complex harmonic pattern similar to the bat pattern, but has longer retracements and extensions. Scott Carney claimed it was the most accurate harmonic pattern.

The pattern is confirmed when the final leg retraces to the 0.886 Fibonacci level of the initial move, and is often used to identify potential reversal points in the markets.

Based on our recent back test, the crab pattern is the rarest of all patterns. It is often seen as an indication of a significant reversal in the markets.

The Deep Crab Pattern is characterized by a deeper C-D leg compared to the standard Crab Pattern, which results in a more powerful reversal signal. A deep Crab ha 2.34 to 3.618 CD leg.

• The Shark pattern

The shark pattern is a rare and complex harmonic pattern that is similar to the cypher pattern, but has unique retracements and extensions.

The pattern is confirmed when the final leg retraces beyond the 1.13 Fibonacci level of the initial move, and is often used to identify potential reversal points in the markets.

It is one of the most complex harmonic patterns and is rarely seen in the markets.

Advanced Harmonic Patterns:

The Cypher Pattern

The cypher pattern is another relatively rare and complex harmonic pattern similar to the bat pattern, but peculiar retracements and extensions.

The pattern is confirmed when the final leg retraces to the 0.786 Fibonacci level of the initial move, and is often used to identify potential reversal points in the markets.

Discovered by Darren bends, the Cypher is an offshoot of the more widley known butterfly pattern that provides high probability entry signals into reversal trades.

IMPORTANT: Always Follow The “B” Rule.

The steps above will allow you to identify valid Cypher patterns.

However, one last step you should always take for maximum confirmation is checking is the “B” rule.

The “B” rule states that point B CANNOT breach the 78.6% retracement of move X — C. And that includes candlestick wicks. If price breaches this ratio the pattern becomes invalid and suggests a different structure is forming.

The 5–0 Pattern

The 5–0 pattern is a rare and complex harmonic pattern that is similar to the butterfly.

The 5–0 pattern is similar to the butterfly pattern but has different retracements and extensions.

It is relatively rare and is often seen as a sign of a significant reversal in the markets.

Just as it is with the shark pattern, the 5–0 harmonic pattern is a relatively new pattern. Carney discovered it and wrote about this pattern in the second book in his harmonic series, ‘Harmonic Trading: Volume Two’.

The 5–0 pattern is easily one of the wonkiest looking patterns. Depending on the amount of knowledge you have about harmonic patterns, the 5–0 will look different, and this is mainly because the 5–0 pattern begins a 0. If you are familiar with seeing XABCD, then 0XABCD will undoubtedly look different.

The patterns are relatively new but are getting more popular lately. It stands out from the other harmonic patterns because it is meant to begin a new trend rather than discover retracement. There are two types of this pattern, bullish and bearish.

The convergence zones discovered with the help of the shark pattern makes it possible for us to accurately detect the rebound but doesn’t necessarily lead to the restoration of the previous trend. On the other hand, regular rollbacks aim to determine the ability of the forces dominant on the market in the previous period (bears or bulls) to get the initiative back to their disposal. If they are not sufficient, the last reversal of the previous trend occurs, but already within another pattern — 5–0 harmonic pattern.

The Three-Drive Pattern

The three drives pattern is a simple and commonly observed harmonic pattern that consists of three equal price legs, followed by a retracement, and then a final move in the opposite direction that is equal in length to the initial move.

The pattern is confirmed when the final leg retraces to the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the entire move, and is often used to identify potential reversal points in the markets.

The three drives pattern is based on three equal price legs and is relatively easy to identify.

It is often seen as an indication of a significant reversal in the markets.

The three drives pattern consists of a series of higher highs or higher lows. It is similar to the ABCD pattern. The difference is that a Three drives pattern is made of 5 legs, while an ABCD pattern has only 4. Three-Drives is a reversal pattern, so it signals an upcoming change in a trend.

Statistical Data

While harmonic patterns had experience high success rates based on their statistical data in the past, market dynamics change overtime. This is the exact reason why we recently conducted back testing on the patterns with existing market data in 2023 using the top 3 by market cap in Crypto along with some 21 other alt coins.

Crab Pattern remains to be the rarest harmonic and also the most accurate in hitting T1 from entry point.

Gartley has the highest percentage of reaching T2 from T1 which is 60.29% of 403 trade samples. This means that once a gartley pattern reaches T1 which is 0.618 of the previous move, it is likely to reach its previous peak or low.

How to Trade Harmonics?

• Pattern Recognition
• Price Action
• Support and Resistance Levels
• Momentum Indicator Divergences
• M and Ws in Bollinger Bands

Trading strategies using harmonic patterns:

• Entry and exit strategies for trading harmonic patterns
• Risk management techniques for trading harmonic patterns
• Combining harmonic patterns with other technical analysis tools

Hello Traders! Welcome to Coin Index Alerts, your go-to source for index updates on the cryptocurrency market.

Lets review our index indicators to aid us in our analysis of the broader market.

Total Market Cap 1 (3 Scenarios)

• Support: 1.18 T
• Resistance: 1.259 T

For the Bulls

Potential Shark Pattern (Scenario 1)

• Targets- 1.75 T or 47%Rally
• Downside Risk: 724 B or 39% Dip
• Trigger: Strong bounce at current support

Bullish Cypher Pattern (Scenario 2)

• Targets- T1= 2.1 T, T2= 2.99 T and T3= 4.5 T
• T1 is synonymous BTC hitting 42K long term
• Downside Risk: 724B or 39% Dip
• Trigger: Strong bounce at current support

For the Bears

Potential Shark Pattern (Scenario 3)

The potential shark pattern we drew on the daily last week still very much valid showing signs of a possible head and shoulder forming.

• Downside Targets: 854 B, 28%
• Needs to break below 1.18 T

Our previous short term analysis last week projecting the entire market cap to test the previous trendline did happened although it came a bit later.

As we projected last week, this retest will likely result into a rejection and will lead to deeper correction at 1.085T.

Total Market Cap 2 (Except BTC)

Long Term Scenarios:

• Support: 608 B
• Resistance: 663 B

For the bulls

Potential Cypher Pattern (Long Term) No Changes

• Targets:1.22 T, 1.176 T, 2.579 T
• Downside Risk: 423 B
• Trigger: Bounce at current inverse head and shoulder neckline

Inverse Head and Shoulder, 1D (Failed to bounce)

The pattern neckline failed to act as a support. This means that if price failed to go above it, the rally in the previous week was a fakeout and invalidates the pattern.

• Target- 803 B
• Directional Bias: Hidden Bullish Divergence at current support, H4.
• Downside Risk: 423 B
• Trigger: Bounce at current inverse head and shoulder neckline. This trigger failed to hold.

For the bears

Potential Shark Pattern, 1D

The recent break below 608B confirmed this move. Will likely had to it 507 target on a failed retest at 608B level.

• Downside Targets: 507 B
• Previous criteria was met as expected. Needs to stay below 608K to remain valid.

Previous and Current Week:

From our expectations last week, it did not bounce as initially projected but breach 608B to the downside heading to our projected downside target at 507B

For the next few days we could see deeper correction to 507B as we projected previously after the rejection at the trendline.

Total Market Cap 3 (Except BTC and ETH)

Long Term Scenarios:

Bullish Cypher Pattern, 1W

Total Market Cap 3, 1D

For the bulls

Bullish Cypher Pattern (Still Valid)

• Targets: 837 B , 1.68 T
• Downside Risk: 281 B
• Trigger: Break above head and shoulder neckline at 412 B

For the bears

Potential Shark Pattern, 1D (Currently unfolding)

• Downside Targets: 332 B, 277 B, 195B
• Needs to break below 332B to confirm lower targets
• Invalidation: Break above head and shoulder neckline at 412 B

Previous and Current Week:

We discussed previous week that the trend channel is significant and that a break at the support would trigger 3 possible down targets.

The trend channel broke to the downside and could result into a significant dip towards 332 B, 277 B, or lower at 195B.

Bitcoin Dominance

We had a brief rally to retest previous high as anticipated and the assumption that a complex head and shoulder pattern is forming is likely happening.

A break lower than 47% will result to further dip to 44% or lower.

• Support: 47%
• Resistance: 49%
• Targets- 44%, 42% and 33.4% levels
• Upside Risk: Break above 49%
• Trigger: Break below 47%

BTC

We projected a resumption of BTC dip to 25K last week and we dipped as low as 27K forming a possible neckline to a head and shoulder formation. It bounced to 30K shortly after reaching this level. Basically a whipsaw had occurred during the week when price went up and down on these levels.

These explains why some news of some old bitcoin accounts including ETH ICO wallet have risen from dormancy over the past few days. Clearly they were meant to stir panic from the public in a bid to suppress the price.

Projection

• Support: $25,000
• Resistance: $31,600 — $32,000
• Directional Bias: Bearish Divergence- 1D, H4 and H1 and Volume Bearish Divergence at 1D.
• Breakdown Target: $25,000
• Upside Risk: $32K
• Invalidation Point: $32,000

Long Term Assumption (No Changes)

Key Levels and Long Term Targets are still valid.

Key levels remain to be 42K, 25K and 10K

Updated Long Term Projection on $BTC- Scenario 1

Updated Long Term Projection on $BTC- Scenario 2

Analysis:

BTC.D bearish projection while BTC also projected bearish, Alts will likely decrease or be stable.

Altcoin Dominance

No changes since last week. There remains to be a possibility of a strong increase in dominance by alts over BTC as we projected last week. This confirms a possibility of short term dips on BTC.

• Support: 9.25%
• Resistance: 10% and 11.88%
• Targets: 12.88%, 14.27%, 16.73%and 19.56%
• Downside Risk: 7.98
• Trigger: Break above 11.88%

Dollar Index (DXY)

We had a retest at the neckline as we have projected 2 weeks ago at 100.3 level although it only went as low as 100.5 falling short of the target.

• Support: 100
• Resistance: 102.66

For the bulls

Potential Shark Pattern 1D (Long Term)

• Targets: 112
• Downside Risk: 100
• Trigger: Break above 102.66

For the bears

Head and Shoulder Pattern, 1D (Slim Chances)

• Downside Targets: 88.6
• Needs to break below 100 to confirm head and shoulder breakdown

S&P 500:

We had a bearish projection on S&P 500 last week which resulted to 2.5% dip. A rebounce occured shortly to retest previous high.

Bearish projection will likely continue which validates a bullish dollar index.

Bearish Short Term

• Support: 4079
• Resistance: 4183
• Downside Target: 3939
• Upside Risk: 4183
• Trigger: Break below 4079

Fear and Greed Index

FED Interest Rates

No Change: FRED is at 4.83% as of April, a slight increase from 4.67% of March 2023, Fed peak rate target is at 5.1%

Upcoming: Fed Interest Rate Decision May 03, 2023 02:00PM ET

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

No Change:

Here are the details of the CPI data released on April 12,2023:

— CPI rose just 0.1% Month-over-month

— Annualized Consumer Price Index in the US declined to 5% in March.

Source: FRED Economic Data

Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS)

Consumer Price Index

Conclusion:

Generally the market had a relief rally from the dips in the past 2 weeks but the general trend is still at the bearish side. This is the case as long as the current rally does go above 31K.

This is also the case for S&P 500 which recently rallied as we anticipated last week but generally the direction is still to the downside.

Altcoin dominance over BTC is still projected to rise in the broader market.

It would be interesting to anticipate Fed Interest Rate Decision May 03, 2023.

Note: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency involves significant risk, and you should not invest more than you can afford to lose.

See Also:

• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 21, 2023
• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 14, 2023
• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 7, 2023
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #04
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #03
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #02
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #01
• CPI and Fed Rates: Bull or Bear?

INDEX INDICATOR: QUICK GUIDE

Bitcoin Dominance: It is a measure of the relative importance of Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies.

Altcoin Dominance: Altcoin Dominance measures the market share of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin, indicating the relative strength of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.

• Altcoin Dominance is calculated as 100% minus Bitcoin Dominance
• Increasing Altcoin Dominance suggests investors are comfortable taking risks with alternative cryptocurrencies.
• Decreasing Altcoin Dominance may indicate risk-averse investors prefer Bitcoin’s stability.
• Changes in Altcoin Dominance are often inversely correlated to changes in Bitcoin Dominance.

Dollar Index (DXY): The Dollar Index (DXY) measures the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is not specific to the cryptocurrency market, but can have an impact on the market because cryptocurrencies are often denominated in US dollars.

• An increasing DXY may make risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks relatively more expensive for foreign investors, potentially reducing demand and pushing down prices.
• Conversely, a decreasing DXY may risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks relatively cheaper for foreign investors, potentially increasing demand and pushing up prices.

S&P 500: For most part, S&P 500 has positive correlation with BTC, which means that the two markets tend to move in the same direction.

Fear and Greed Index: This index can be used to identify periods of market optimism or pessimism and to make trading decisions based on market sentiment.

• If the Fear and Greed Index is high, it may indicate that the market is overheated and due for a correction
• If the Fear and Greed Index is low, it may indicate that the market is oversold and potentially presenting buying opportunities.

Why we need to check fear and greed index?

1. If public is extremely fearful, it may indicate that they are overly worried. This could create a good opportunity to buy.

2. When public becomes too greedy, it often means that the market is about to go through a correction.

God bless! Happy Week End!

Welcome to our crypto newsletter, where I intend to provide you with the latest insights on the crypto market. In this edition, we will cover the following:

1. Top News
2. Market Overview
3. Coin/Token Analysis
4. Upcoming Events
5. News and Events
6. Conclusion
7. Related Publications

1. Top News for the week

Rising Bitcoin Balance on Binance Indicates Possible ‘Selling Pressure’

According to on-chain data from Coinglass, Bitcoin’s balance on Binance has increased by 51,622.03 BTC, or almost $1.5 billion, in the past 30 days. This increase in BTC balance on Binance has raised concerns about a possible sell-off.

The $30,000 price level is considered significant as the historical transaction volume at that level is at an all-time high, indicating that it goes beyond just sentiment.

Meanwhile, Decentrader’s analysis of exchange liquidity shows that the $35,000 price range is crucial for closing leveraged BTC short bets. According to Decentrader, there are more BTC shorts than longs, which coincides with a return of nearly $1 billion in open interest.

However, if the issues surrounding the US dollar persist, there may be an inflow of funds into alternative assets such as cryptocurrencies, which could potentially push BTC past current resistance levels. Bitcoin is currently facing resistance at around $30,000, with support at $27,790.

2. Market Overview:

Generally the market had a relief rally from the dips in the past 2 weeks but the broader trend is still at the bearish side. This is the case as long as the current rally does not go above 31K.

The marked increase on Binance bitcoin balance could seen as an added strain to the selling pressure at current levels.

This is also the case for S&P 500 which recently rallied as we anticipated last week but generally the direction is still to the downside.

Altcoin dominance over BTC is still projected to rise in the broader market.

Regulatory scrutiny activities in the US is still ongoing particularly on cases of XRP, Bittrex, Sushi and possibly with Coinbase.

The hype on meme coins still can be visibly felt.

Overall market seems to be net short despite recent minor rally, more details on this could be seen on our index analysis

3. Coin/Token Analysis:

Bitcoin (BTC):

BTC

We projected a resumption of BTC dip to 25K last week and we dipped as low as 27K forming a possible neckline to a head and shoulder formation. It bounced to 30K shortly after reaching this level. Basically a whipsaw had occurred during the week when price went up and down on these levels.

These explains why some news of some old bitcoin accounts including ETH ICO wallet have risen from dormancy over the past few days. Clearly they were meant to stir panic from the public in a bid to suppress the price.

Projection

• Support: $25,000
• Resistance: $31,600 — $32,000
• Directional Bias: Bearish Divergence- 1D, H4 and H1 and Volume Bearish Divergence at 1D.
• Breakdown Target: $25,000
• Upside Risk: $32K
• Invalidation Point: $32,000

Long Term Assumption (No Changes)

Key Levels and Long Term Targets are still valid.

Key levels remain to be 42K, 25K and 10K

Why we need to check fear and greed index?

1. If public is extremely fearful, it may indicate that they are overly worried. This could create a good opportunity to buy.

2. When public becomes too greedy, it often means that the market is about to go through a correction.

Ethereum (ETH):

The bearish outlook we saw on ETH last week progressed as we expected it. The weakness we saw on its previous rally resulted to a dip towards $1937 and $1,777.

Currently the $1,777 level is acting as a support which was also the neckline of the inverse head and shoulder breakout 2 weeks ago. We have a hidden bullish divergence on 1D chart which could mean a potential bounce to retest the previous high at $2140.

Long Term Projection: No Changes

• Support: $2,000 and $1,756
• Resistance: $2,140

For the bulls

Bullish Cypher Pattern (Long Term)

• Targets: $3,618 and $6,950
• Downside Risk: $1400
• Trigger: Break above $2,148

For the bears

Potential Shark Pattern, 1W

• Downside Targets: $1400
• Needs to break below $1777 to confirm failure of previous inverse head and shoulder breakout

Binance Coin (BNB): There’s been a lot of FUD growing on binance recently.

The projection that we had last week that BNB will likely retest its ascending triangle trend support is still valid.

• Support: $272
• Resistance: $346
• Breakout Target: $460 (low probability)
• Downside Risk: $211 if triangle breaks to the downside

Doge Coin (DOGE):

Doge still in the range and our projection of a possible will attempt to break from accumulation range is still valid.

No changes on key levels.

• Support: 0.06419
• Resistance: 0.1048
• Breakout Target:0.15
• Downside Risk: 0.026 if break below 0.06419
• Invalidation Point: Break below 0.1048

Sushi Token (SUSHI):

No Changes on Sushi long term

Currently, Sushi is in a Wyckoff accumulation range, which makes it an interesting opportunity to watch.

If it breaks the whitelines, it could signify a significant move.

Moreover, it’s on a possible compound fulcrum bottom, and if it breaks to the upside, it could potentially lead to a strong bullish rally.

• Support: 0.94
• Resistance: 1.3 and 1.88
• Breakout Target: $2.88, $3.65 and $5
• Downside Risk: 0.0515
• Invalidation Point: Break below 0.0515

Shiba Inu (Shib)

Shib went down 8% despite bullish fundamentals for the week as we expected it last week.

SHIB is still on a bearish pennant continuation pattern despite successive bullish themed news.

• Support: 0.00000989
• Resistance: 0.00001179
• Breakdown Target: 0.00000607
• Upside Risk: 0.00000989
• Invalidation Point: Break above 0.00000989

The Graph (GRT)

GRT dipped 11% for the week as we expected.

Currently, GRT is on a bearish pennant continuation pattern.

• Support: 0.1366
• Resistance: 0.1724
• Breakdown Target: 0.09
• Upside Risk: 0.1724
• Invalidation Point: Break above 0.1724

DEGO Finance (DEGO)

Dego has a bullish divergence in H4.

• Support:1.916 and 1.779
• Resistance: 2.529 and 2.859
• Target: 2.529 and 2.859
• Downside Risk: 1.779
• Invalidation Point: Break below 1.779

Ronin (Ron)

RON resumed the downtrend without our expected short bounce.

Currently, Ron is likely formy a possible head and shoulder top before resuming the projected long term downtrend. See long term analysis here.

• Support: 0.951 (projected neckline)
• Resistance: 1.145 and 1.3
• Trigger: Break below 0.95
• Breakout Target: 0.59 and 0.486
• Invalidation Point: Break above 1.445

Fantom (FTM)

We projected FTM to dip 27% despite bullish news last week and went down as expected to about 14%.

Bearish continuation still valid.

Loopring (LRC)

LRC went down 11% for the week as expected.

Bearish continuation still valid.

5. Upcoming Events

Major:

• BTC Halving: April 22,2024
• Fed Interest Rate Decision: May 03, 2023 02:00PM ET
• LTC Halving: August 5, 2023

Minor:

• Consensus 2023: Austin Apr 26–28, 2023
• AVAX Summit: Barcelona May 3–5, 2023
• XMR Annual Meeting: Prague,June 25, 2023
• Sweatcoin Beta Game Release, June 30, 2023
• ETHCC: Paris, July 17–20, 2023
• May 26, Aug. 7, Oct. 19 and Dec. 30, 2023 — time frames in which the U.S. government might sell its Bitcoin holdings, including those seized from the Silk Road dark web case. Read more

Source: https://coindar.org/en

Token Unlocks:

• RON will unlock tokens worth $39.3m on April 27
• DYDX will unlock tokens worth $18,843,170 on May 09
• APT will unlock tokens worth $53,067,823 on May 12
• BIT will unlock tokens worth$98,193,937 on May 15
• APE will unlock tokens worth $66,461,645 on May 17
• AVAX will unlock tokens worth $188,259,714 on May 28
• OP will unlock tokens worth $408,193,692 on May 31

Source: https://token.unlocks.app/

6. News and Events:

• Blockchain and crypto leaders converged at DAO Tokyo as Japan increases adoption.
• ‘Binance JAPAN’ to Debut in June 2023
• Terraform Labs co-founder and nine others indicted in South Korea.
• Ethereum ICO participant awakes after 7.7 years of dormancy. On April 21, a bitcoin whale that had been inactive for a decade transferred 279 bitcoins — worth $7.8 million at the time of the transaction — to three new addresses. That transaction came a day after another long-dormant bitcoin whale transferred 2,071.5 BTC — worth $60.7 million — after nine years of inactivity.
• Republicans move to take regulatory power over stablecoins from Gensler, SEC.
• Shiba Inu Community Showcases Strength at Consensus 2023
• Asia’s gaming giants bet on Web3 to transform the global gaming landscape
• Asia’s current gaming domination ‘crucial’ for Web3 games: DappRadar

Conclusion:

Our directional bias on BTC along with S&P 500 is still on the downside despite some previous rally we experienced in the past few days.

The market is still net short.

Although there has been a lot of excitement around meme tokens recently, it is important to exercise caution.

Shib is also on a bearish continuation pattern so the risk is high for those who would FOMO into this sector. A lot of alts have this bearish pattern right now although there are some that could see some rally next few days like DEGO, Dusk, Luna and some few others

Altcoin dominance over BTC is also projected to rise in the broader market so we expect Alts to rally once BTC stabilizes at some level. Although most alts are bearish right now particularly those which gave recent rallies.

See also:

• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 28, 2023
• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 21, 2023
• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 14, 2023
• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 7, 2023
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #03
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #02
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #01
• CPI and Fed Rates: Bull or Bear?
• Bitcoin Dilemma
• “Technical Analysis: Is the Recent Bitcoin Rally Sustainable”

Big Reminders!!!

We are bounded by probabilities.

Manage your risk:

“Know when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em, cut your losses short, let your winners ride!”

Even the best probabilistic models have their limitations, and there are always factors that are beyond our knowledge or control.

Anything can happen.

Note: The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

Trading cryptocurrency involves significant risk, and you should not invest more than you can afford to lose. The content provided is based on our analysis and opinion, and we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided.

You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and should seek the advice of a qualified financial professional before making any investment.

Thank you for reading our weekly crypto newsletter. We hope you found this analysis helpful. If you have any questions or feedback, please feel free to reach out to us.

We’ve seen massive capitulation and it has formed a harmonic shark pattern in the process.

It will likely go sideways from here initially but generally we already had our first change of structure under Wyckoff Accumulation.

Its just a matter of time before this fully reverses.

If you missed bitcoin a decade ago, this is your next bitcoin.

Our trigger is RSI trendline break or Wyckoff Accumulation breakout, which ever comes first.

Long Term Projection

• Support: $ 1.10
• Resistance: $ 2.3
• Directional Bias: Bullish Divergence- H4 and Volume Bullish Divergence at 1W.
• Breakout Target: $39 , $76 , $ 156 and $ 237

You may track the chart progress here.

FTX Fallout

Silvergate Bank, which entered the cryptocurrency market by offering bank accounts to companies providing services in the Bitcoin space, has gone bankrupt.

The collapse of FTX triggered a devastating bank run on Silvergate, with clients withdrawing $8.1bn from the bank, which led to a colossal loss of $1bn due to the bank having to sell off assets, including bonds, at a lower price than their marked value on the balance sheet. read more…

Note: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

God Bless! And Happy Trading!

And while some of these criticisms are valid, more often, they are unfounded and stems more on a trader’s inadequate knowledge or lack of understanding on the tool.

In this article, I will show you simple ways on how you can elevate your trading game with Fibonacci tool.

But before that, let’s talk about its origins.

Fibonacci is a mathematical sequence introduced by Leonardo Fibonacci, an Italian Mathematician in the early 13th century.

It emanates from a sequence of numbers called the Fibonacci sequence.

Its a sequence of numbers in which the next number is derived by adding the two previous numbers in the sequence starting from 0 and 1.

Here’s the sequence.

Notably, there exist constants within the relationships of the numbers in this sequence. For instance, you pick a number in the sequence, divide it with the number preceding it and you get 1.618, a value known as the golden ratio.

The Golden Ratio, is a special number that can be found in many different facets of life, such as in shapes and patterns in geometry, in the growth patterns of plants, animals like snail shells and even in the structure of human DNA.

It has fascinated people for centuries because it appears to be connected to the beauty and balance found in the nature.

These are the Fibonacci levels that are used in the financial markets.

There are Various Ways to Apply Fibonacci Levels:

• Gauge the Strength of the Trend
• Trend Identification
• Identification of Trend Exhaustion
• Identify Quality Break Out Trades
• Pullback Trade
• Identify Targets

We will discuss these methods but first lets show you how to plot Fibonacci levels using Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Extension Tools.

We will use the BTC Logarithmic Chart of 2019–2022 for this examples. First, lets mark the successive swing points where we would anchor our tools. Swing points are the peaks and bottom of every trend. Lets mark the as A, B and C.

There are two Fibonacci Tools that you can use using your tradingview account. The Fibonacci Retracement and Fibonacci Extension.

Plotting Fibonacci Retracement Tool

Let’s do the retracement first. In ploting the retracement tool you need 2 key points. We will use point A and point B for this example.

Step 1- Click the Fibonacci retracement tool

Step 2- Click the tip of swing point A

Step 3- Click the tip of swing point B

Step 4- Make sure the tool is properly aligned with the swing points

Step 5- You may now analyze the data.

Plotting Fibonacci Extension Tool

Step 1- Click the Fibonacci extension tool

Step 2- Click the tip of swing point A

Step 3- Click the tip of swing point B

Step 4- Click the tip of swing point C

Step 5- Make sure the tool is properly aligned with the swing points

Step 6- You may now analyze the data.

In this particular example, while the succeeding rally exceeded 4.236 Fib level, notice how the price was stalled along the way in two key price levels.

The first one was the blue line which is the 0.786 fib extension of the previous rally which coincides with its previous high (resistance level) at swing point B.

The second significant event here is how price was stalled in 3.618 at $42K level which at this point was at price discovery, meaning there was no particular price history where you can peg the level in the past other than the extension level.

This illustrates one of key usefulness of Fibonacci extension tool. It can anticipate price levels at areas where there is no previous price history.

Gauge the Strength of the Trend

Among the most unpopular use of Fibonacci is to gauge the strength of the trend which are normally done in price action, volume price analysis and other indicators.

Arguably the best way to gauge the strength of a trend is through Fibonacci.

As a general rule, if pull backs or retracement occur in 50% level or lower, the trend is still strong.

Conversely, if retracements fall above 50% to 100%, either the trend is weak or its likely going flat or sideways consolidation.

When price action reaches around 78.6% fib level of the previous move, price will likely take a while in ranging market before it is able to retest its previous high in a upward trend or its previous low in a down trend.

A bounce or rejection at 38.2% fib level or lower normally results in a break out and will likely create new highs in an uptrend, or new lows in a down trend.

This general rule can also be applied a supplemental element of trend identification in price action.

Trend Identification

In an uptrend, counter trend declines usually do not exceed 50% of previous rally.

Conversely, during a downtrend, counter-trend rallies usually do not exceed 50% of previous decline.

While it can aid trend identification, it can also be applied in identifying trend exhaustion in both directions.

Identification of Trend Exhaustion

During an uptrend, deep counter trend declines signifies exhaustion of a rally and signals an impending change of price structure.

In simple terms if during an uptrend, we saw a retracement beyond 0.618 level, its a clear sign that the market is already building a case for a change in direction of momentum.

Similarly during a down trend, deep counter trend retracements signifies exhaustion of the dip and signals an impending change of structure.

Identify Quality Break Out Trades

There are plenty of ways to identify quality breakout trades from horizontal key levels like what we discussed in RSI and Volume Price Analysis but a little known method is the use of Fibonacci retracement tool.

For RSI, you need to see the momentum oscillator break above or below the previous swing high or low to ascertain that the trend is strong and a good candidate for a break out trade.

In the case of volume, you need to see a strong surge in volume as the price breach the key level to confirm that the break is valid with strong momentum.

For Fibonacci its quite simple. If the bounce occurred 0.382 or lower, its likely a good retracement for a strong trend continuation.

Its best however to combine this method to other tools to get optimum results.

There are two ways to trade this.

First is to buy the retracement provided there is a sufficient reason to believe that the potential level will likely hold.

Momentum Bounce Play Set Up

Criteria:

• There is a strong trend
• The potential level is within 0.382 fib level or lower.
• There should be a support at the previous trend (for uptrend) or resistance (for downtrend)
• There should be a bullish volume for uptrend or bearish volume for downtrend.
• RSI bullish divergence for uptrend and RSI bearish divergence for downtrend
• Bullish candlestick pattern on the key level for long set up or bearish candlestick pattern for bearish set up.
• Point of entry is on a confirmed bounce on long set up or confirmed rejection for short entry.

Second way to trade momentum is to wait for the break out to occur before making the trade.

Momentum Break Out Play Set Up

Criteria:

• There is a strong trend
• There should be a valid break out from the previous high for uptrend or previous low for downtrend.
• The bounce level or rejection level prior to breakout is within 0.382 fib level or lower.
• There should be a bullish volume for uptrend or bearish volume for downtrend.
• RSI bullish divergence for uptrend and RSI bearish divergence for downtrend
• The entry point is at the valid break out point or break down point.

Pull Back Trade

The most popular use of Fibonacci is through pull back trades. Its a technical trading strategy using Fibonacci retracement tool to identify potential entry or exits of a potential trade. Its similar to the momentum bounce play but the key difference is that the bounce happen after a deeper correction.

The basic problem using this strategy is the question, “at which Fibonacci level will it reverse?”. This is where most traders get it.

The key to finding the right entry is to build up the case for a potential trade.

Criteria:

• There is a trend or a possible trend
• The potential level is at 0.5 to 0.786 fib level
• Look left for previous structure. There should be a support at the previous trend (for uptrend) or resistance (for downtrend)
• There should be a bullish volume for uptrend or bearish volume for downtrend.
• RSI bullish divergence for uptrend and RSI bearish divergence for downtrend
• The price action at the key level is at overbought or oversold territory
• There should be a bottom reversal pattern or atleast a shift in momentum at the key level
• There should be an Elliot Wave confluence.
• Point of entry is on a confirmed bounce on long set up or confirmed rejection for short entry.

Identify Targets

After identifying entry points on the trade from key levels, the next valuable role of Fibonacci tools is to identify potential target for the move.

It is important to avoid being entirely dependent of fibonacci retracement and extension tools alone and to use them along side other technical analysis tools and indicators.

Retracement Levels

Using Fibonacci retracement tool, one can identify potential target by identifying support and resistance at key Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels are 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels which can be used as potential targets and exit points.

In this particular example the 78.6% retracement level was used the short target.

Extension Levels

Fibonacci extension tool on the other hand is used to identify price targets beyond the limits of the current trend. The tool projects potential price targets on Fibonacci levels beyond the high or low point of the trend typically 127.2%, 161.8% and 261.8% or higher. These levels can be used as areas where to take profit on a given trade.

Important Notes to Remember on Fibonacci Trading:

• Don’t use Fibonacci as stand alone concept
• It’s less reliable in shorter timeframes
• Pay attention to the broader trend when trying to spot pull back trade opportunities

So there you have it, we were able to discuss the Fibonacci sequence that underpins the Fibonacci trading method.

We were able to illustrate the ways we can employ the tool to identify and gauge the strength of trend, identify trend exhaustion, break out trades, pull back trades including setting up targets.

Till next time!

MARKET UPDATE: April 15–21, 2023 (News and TA Round Up)

Welcome to our crypto newsletter, where I intend to provide you with the latest insights on the crypto market. In this edition, we will cover the following:

1. Top News
2. Market Overview
3. Coin/Token Analysis
4. Upcoming Events
5. News and Events
6. Conclusion
7. Related Publications

1. Top News for the week

Pepe Coin rallies 1,000,000 percent

Crypto traders on Twitter are shifting their attention from Shiba Inu-inspired tokens to Pepe the Frog-themed tokens.

A new cryptocurrency called Pepe (PEPE) was launched on Sunday and has increased in value by over 100,000% in five days.

The token has achieved $110 million in trading volumes on Uniswap and a market capitalization of $160 million as of Wed morning.

Pepe token has gained popularity with 29,000 individual holders and over $1.3 million in liquidity locked up in a Uniswap trading pool.

The token is not officially associated with the original Pepe the Frog meme or its creator, Matt Furie.

The crypto community has a history of embracing meme-themed tokens, such as dogecoin (DOGE) and shiba inu (SHIB).

2. Market Overview:

The market briefly rallied after partnership deal between eToro and Twitter last week but currently in a broad sell off.

We saw a craze hype on meme coins with frogs as newly launched Pepe Coin made huge rally in just few days.

Regulatory scrutiny activities in the US is still ongoing particularly on cases of XRP, Bittrex, Sushi and possibly with Coinbase.

Overall market seems to be net short, more details on this could be seen on our index analysis

3. Coin/Token Analysis:

Bitcoin (BTC):

Our previous bearish analysis on $BTC reached its breakdown target at $28,800.

Updated Projection

• Support: $25,000
• Resistance: $31,600 — $32,000
• Directional Bias: Bearish Divergence- 1D, H4 and H1 and Volume Bearish Divergence at 1D.
• Breakdown Target: $25,000
• Upside Risk: $32K
• Invalidation Point: $32,000

Update on Long Term Assumption

Key Levels and Long Term Targets are still valid.

Key levels remain to be 42K, 25K and 10K

Source: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Why we need to check fear and greed index?

1. If public is extremely fearful, it may indicate that they are overly worried. This could create a good opportunity to buy.

2. When public becomes too greedy, it often means that the market is about to go through a correction.

Ethereum (ETH):

The break out we saw last week failed and this was supported by the divergence with volume we observed which was a sign of weakness.

Its now attempting a test at $1937 and $1,777 level as its current support.

For the nex few days, we will likely see a minor bounce at $2055 at its current level which is the 0.786 fib level or the previous move. Upon rejection at $2055, it will likely resume the dip as we have a bullish divergence in H4 and H1.

Note: Dipped instantly with no bounce. short term chart invalidated, refer to long term scenarios.

Long Term Projection:

• Support: $2,000 and $1,756
• Resistance: $2,140

For the bulls

Bullish Cypher Pattern (Long Term)

• Targets: $3,618 and $6,950
• Downside Risk: $1400
• Trigger: Break above $2,148

For the bears

Potential Shark Pattern, 1W

• Downside Targets: $1400
• Needs to break below $1777 to confirm failure of previous inverse head and shoulder breakout

Binance Coin (BNB): There’s been a lot of FUD growing on binance lately.

The attempt to break through resistance failed again, will likely retest its ascending triagle trend support in the next few days.

• Support: $272
• Resistance: $346
• Breakout Target: $460 (low probability)
• Downside Risk: $211 if triangle breaks to the downside

Doge Coin (DOGE):

Doge still in the range and possibly will attempt to break from accumulation range.

No changes on key levels.

• Support: 0.06419
• Resistance: 0.1048
• Breakout Target:0.15
• Downside Risk: 0.026 if break below 0.06419
• Invalidation Point: Break below 0.1048

Sushi Token (SUSHI):

No Changes on Sushi long term

Currently, Sushi is in a Wyckoff accumulation range, which makes it an interesting opportunity to watch.

If it breaks the whitelines, it could signify a significant move.

Moreover, it’s on a possible compound fulcrum bottom, and if it breaks to the upside, it could potentially lead to a strong bullish rally.

• Support: 0.94
• Resistance: 1.3 and 1.88
• Breakout Target: $2.88, $3.65 and $5
• Downside Risk: 0.0515
• Invalidation Point: Break below 0.0515

Shiba Inu (Shib)

Currently, SHIB is on a bearish pennant continuation pattern.

• Support: 0.00000989
• Resistance: 0.00001179
• Breakdown Target: 0.00000607
• Upside Risk: 0.00000989
• Invalidation Point: Break above 0.00000989

The Graph (GRT)

Currently, GRT is on a bearish pennant continuation pattern.

• Support: 0.1366
• Resistance: 0.1724
• Breakdown Target: 0.09
• Upside Risk: 0.1724
• Invalidation Point: Break above 0.1724

Ronin (Ron)

Currently, Ron is retesting its support and could bounce here for 15% to 25% rally before resuming reversal to the downside. See long term analysis here.

Note: Dipped instantly with no bounce, short term chart invalidated, refer to long term scenarios.

• Support: 1.145
• Resistance: 1.3
• Breakout Target: 1.3375 and 1.45
• Downside Risk: 0.93
• Invalidation Point: Break below 1.14

Fantom (FTM)

Loopring (LRC)

5. Upcoming Events

Major:

• BTC Halving: April 22,2024
• Fed Interest Rate Decision: May 03, 2023 02:00PM ET
• LTC Halving: August 5, 2023

Minor:

• Consensus 2023: Austin Apr 26–28, 2023
• AVAX Summit: Barcelona May 3–5, 2023
• XMR Annual Meeting: Prague,June 25, 2023
• Sweatcoin Beta Game Release, June 30, 2023
• ETHCC: Paris, July 17–20, 2023
• May 26, Aug. 7, Oct. 19 and Dec. 30, 2023 —time frames in which the U.S. government might sell its Bitcoin holdings, including those seized from the Silk Road dark web case. Read more

Source: https://coindar.org/en

Token Unlocks:

• AXS will unlock tokens worth $32.1m on April 17
• RON will unlock tokens worth $39.3m on April 27
• DYDX will unlock tokens worth $18,843,170 on May 09
• APT will unlock tokens worth $53,067,823 on May 12
• BIT will unlock tokens worth$98,193,937 on May 15
• APE will unlock tokens worth $66,461,645 on May 17
• AVAX will unlock tokens worth $188,259,714 on May 28
• OP will unlock tokens worth $408,193,692 on May 31

Source: https://token.unlocks.app/

6. News and Events:

• Giant Ethereum (ETH) Whales Move Over $110,000,000 in Crypto As Markets Stall — Here’s What They’re Up ToCrypto exchange Bitrue suffers $23M hack due to hot wallet exploit
• BTC price quotes now live on Twitter following eToro partnership
• Bitcoin ‘mega whales’ send BTC price to $30K as volatility hits crypto
• May 26, Aug. 7, Oct. 19 and Dec. 30, 2023 — as critical time frames in which the U.S. government might sell its Bitcoin holdings, including those seized from the Silk Road dark web case.
• US SEC charges Bittrex with operating unregistered securities exchange
• US House committee chair repeatedly presses SEC chair: ‘Is Ether a commodity or a security?’
• Binance users get new ETH deposit addresses: Here’s what to do
• Exploit targets crypto veterans, drains over $10M across 11 blockchains

Conclusion:

We see an indecision in the broad market, this is evident in the altcoins. We have seen many bearish continuation patterns like Shib, FTM, LRC, GRT and many others.

Whale wallets buying Loopring and Fantom, with nearly $1m worth of FTM and over $3m worth of LRC.

The bearish pattern is on current chart of FTM and LRC both projected to drop further for 27% and 65% respectively

Despite this, there are still alts that could potentially be bullish in the next few days.

Among these were Ron, SRM, CKB, Algo, Badger, LUNC, C98 and Dodo to name a few.

Generally we start to see a shift in momentum which was very bullish in the previous weeks to now a bearish sentiment.

S&P 500 is also bearish which is known to be positively correlated with $BTC.

Our directional bias on BTC is also on the downside, however a possible brief retest at the previous trendline or previous high could not be discounted. Generally the direction is still to the downside should a brief retest rally would occur.

The market is net short.

Although there has been a lot of excitement around meme tokens recently, it is important to exercise caution. While Pepe is currently at the peak of its hype and may still have some momentum left, there is a risk of a sudden and significant decline, making it a potentially dangerous choice at the moment.

Shib which is a front runner of memes with Doge is also on a bearish continuation pattern so the risk is high for those who would FOMO into this sector.

Altcoin dominance over BTC is also projected to rise in the broader market so we expect Alts to rally once BTC stabilizes at some level. Although most alts are bearish right now particularly those which gave initial rallies.

We will publish a long list of Altcoin picks once we see bitcoin stabilize at a certain level.

See also:

• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 21, 2023
• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 14, 2023
• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 7, 2023
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #02
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #01
• CPI and Fed Rates: Bull or Bear?
• Bitcoin Dilemma
• “Technical Analysis: Is the Recent Bitcoin Rally Sustainable”

Big Reminders!!!

We are bounded by probabilities.

Manage your risk:

“Know when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em, cut your losses short, let your winners ride!”

Even the best probabilistic models have their limitations, and there are always factors that are beyond our knowledge or control.

Anything can happen.

Note: The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

Trading cryptocurrency involves significant risk, and you should not invest more than you can afford to lose. The content provided is based on our analysis and opinion, and we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided.

You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and should seek the advice of a qualified financial professional before making any investment.

Thank you for reading our weekly crypto newsletter. We hope you found this analysis helpful. If you have any questions or feedback, please feel free to reach out to us.

Hello Trader! Welcome to Coin Index Alerts, your go-to source for index updates on the cryptocurrency market.

Lets review our index indicators to aid us in our analysis of the broader market.

Total Market Cap 1 (3 Scenarios)

• Support: 1.18 T
• Resistance: 1.259 T

For the Bulls

Potential Shark Pattern (Scenario 1)

• Targets- 1.75 T or 47%Rally
• Downside Risk: 724 B or 39% Dip
• Trigger: Strong bounce at current support

Bullish Cypher Pattern (Scenario 2)

• Targets- T1= 2.1 T, T2= 2.99 T and T3= 4.5 T
• T1 is synonymous BTC hitting 42K long term
• Downside Risk: 724B or 39% Dip
• Trigger: Strong bounce at current support

For the Bears

Potential Shark Pattern (Scenario 3)

• Downside Targets: 854 B, 28%
• Needs to break below 1.18 T

For the next few days we will likely see a brief bullish rally to test trendline or higher to previous high at 1.25T but a rejection of these 2 scenarios will lead to deeper correction possibly to 1.085 T

Total Market Cap 2 (Except BTC)

Long Term Scenarios:

• Support: 608 B
• Resistance: 663 B

For the bulls

Potential Cypher Pattern (Long Term)

• Targets:1.22 T, 1.176 T, 2.579 T
• Downside Risk: 423 B
• Trigger: Bounce at current inverse head and shoulder neckline

Inverse Head and Shoulder, 1D

• Target- 803 B
• Directional Bias: Hidden Bullish Divergence at current support, H4.
• Downside Risk: 423 B
• Trigger: Bounce at current inverse head and shoulder neckline

For the bears

Potential Shark Pattern, 1D

• Downside Targets: 507 B
• Needs to break below 608B to confirm fakeout and dip to 507B to form potential Shark Pattern

Previous and Current Week:

Last week we expect a minor retracement at the necklineand a possibility of a rebound due to signs of weak break out momentum and this is exactly what happened. We dipped and retested 608 B level at the neckline.

For the next few days we could see a brief rally to retest 638B or higher at 657B as current support and trendline (red) will likely hold with the presence of bullish divergence in h4 chart.

After a rejection on those resistance levels we will likely se retest of the trendline. A break on the trendline could see deeper correction to 507B as stated in the 3rd high timeframe scenario which was a bearish case.

Overall short term bullish but will shift bearish after rejection at key resistance.

Total Market Cap 3 (Except BTC and ETH)

Long Term Scenarios:

For the bulls

Bullish Cypher Pattern (Long Term)

• Targets: 837 B , 1.68 T
• Downside Risk: 281 B
• Trigger: Break above head and shoulder neckline at 412 B

For the bears

Potential Shark Pattern, 1D

• Downside Targets: 332 B, 277 B, 195B
• Needs to break below 332B to confirm lower targets
• Invalidation: Break above head and shoulder neckline at 412 B

Previous and Current Week:

The current trend channel is significant over the next few days.

A bounce will see a retest over the neckline which is also the resistance at 412 B. This will result to the bullish case scenario.

On the other hand, a break below it will give a significant dip towards 332 B, 277 B, or lower at 195B.

We have a weak tight bullish divergence at H1 chart.

Bitcoin Dominance

We dipped at the neckline at 47% as we projected last week on BTC.D and we also bounced at that level as anticipated.

No changes on previous projection last week except we added 2 deeper targets to the downside.

We will likely continue to see brief rally before the next retest at the neckline to form a complex top pattern that will initiate reversal to the downside.

A break lower than 47% will result to further dip to 44%.

• Support: 47%
• Resistance: 49%
• Targets- 44%, 42% and 33.4% levels
• Upside Risk: Break above 49%
• Trigger: Break below 47%

BTC

Our previous bearish analysis on $BTC reached its breakdown target at $28,800.

Projection

• Support: $25,000
• Resistance: $31,600 — $32,000
• Directional Bias: Bearish Divergence- 1D, H4 and H1 and Volume Bearish Divergence at 1D.
• Breakdown Target: $25,000
• Upside Risk: $32K
• Invalidation Point: $32,000

Update on Long Term Assumption

Key Levels and Long Term Targets are still valid.

Key levels remain to be 42K, 25K and 10K

Analysis:

BTC.D bearish projection while BTC also projected bearish, Alts will likely decrease or be stable.

Altcoin Dominance

After brief rallies the market made a bearish turn towards the end of the week as we expected the dips.

However we are seeing a different perspective in the higher timeframe as we can see a possibility of a strong increase in dominance by alts over BTC. This confirms a possibility of short term dips on BTC.

• Support: 9.25%
• Resistance: 10% and 11.88%
• Targets: 12.88%, 14.27%, 16.73%and 19.56%
• Downside Risk: 7.98
• Trigger: Break above 11.88%

Dollar Index (DXY)

We resumed the brief rally we had last weak as we expected and still waiting for our expected retest at neckline at 100 level.

• Support: 100
• Resistance: 102.66

For the bulls

Potential Shark Pattern 1D (Long Term)

• Targets: 112
• Downside Risk: 100
• Trigger: Break above 102.66

For the bears

Head and Shoulder Pattern, 1D

• Downside Targets: 88.6
• Needs to break below 100 to confirm head and shoulder breakdown

In the next few days, it can potential go higher to 103, or lower to 100. Bearish retest to 100 is more likely. Its situational.

S&P 500:

Bearish Short Term

• Support: 4079
• Resistance: 4183
• Downside Target: 3939
• Upside Risk: 4183
• Trigger: Break below 4079

Fear and Greed Index

FED Interest Rates

No Change: FRED is at 4.83% as of April, a slight increase from 4.67% of March 2023, Fed peak rate target is at 5.1%

Upcoming: Fed Interest Rate Decision May 03, 2023 02:00PM ET

Fed Rate as March 2023

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

Consumer Price Index as of April 12, 2023

No Change:

Here are the details of the CPI data released on April 12,2023:

— CPI rose just 0.1% Month-over-month

— Annualized Consumer Price Index in the US declined to 5% in March.

Source: FRED Economic Data

Federal Funds Effective Rate (FEDFUNDS)

Consumer Price Index

Conclusion:

We see an indecision in the broad market as it is evident in the scenarios we see on both sides coupled with fear and greed index being in the middle.

Generally we start to see a shift in momentum which was very bullish in the previous weeks.

S&P 500 is bearish which is known to be positively correlated with $BTC. Our directional bias on BTC is also on the downside, however a possible brief retest at the previous trendline or previous high could not be discounted. Generally the direction however is still to the downside should a brief retest rally would occur.

Generally, the market is net short.

Altcoin dominance over BTC is also projected to rise in the broader market so we expect Alts to rally once BTC stabilizes at some level. Although most alts are bearish right now particularly those which gave initial rallies.

We will publish a long list of Altcoin picks once we see bitcoin stabilize at a certain level.

Note: The information provided in this article is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice. Trading cryptocurrency involves significant risk, and you should not invest more than you can afford to lose.

See Also:

• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 14, 2023
• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 7, 2023
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #03
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #02
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #01
• CPI and Fed Rates: Bull or Bear?

INDEX INDICATOR: QUICK GUIDE

Bitcoin Dominance: It is a measure of the relative importance of Bitcoin compared to other cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin Dominance Guide

Altcoin Dominance: Altcoin Dominance measures the market share of all cryptocurrencies except Bitcoin, indicating the relative strength of altcoins compared to Bitcoin.

• Altcoin Dominance is calculated as 100% minus Bitcoin Dominance
• Increasing Altcoin Dominance suggests investors are comfortable taking risks with alternative cryptocurrencies.
• Decreasing Altcoin Dominance may indicate risk-averse investors prefer Bitcoin’s stability.
• Changes in Altcoin Dominance are often inversely correlated to changes in Bitcoin Dominance.

Dollar Index (DXY): The Dollar Index (DXY) measures the value of the US dollar relative to a basket of foreign currencies. It is not specific to the cryptocurrency market, but can have an impact on the market because cryptocurrencies are often denominated in US dollars.

• An increasing DXY may make risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks relatively more expensive for foreign investors, potentially reducing demand and pushing down prices.
• Conversely, a decreasing DXY may risk assets like cryptocurrencies and stocks relatively cheaper for foreign investors, potentially increasing demand and pushing up prices.

S&P 500: For most part, S&P 500 has positive correlation with BTC, which means that the two markets tend to move in the same direction.

Fear and Greed Index: This index can be used to identify periods of market optimism or pessimism and to make trading decisions based on market sentiment.

• If the Fear and Greed Index is high, it may indicate that the market is overheated and due for a correction
• If the Fear and Greed Index is low, it may indicate that the market is oversold and potentially presenting buying opportunities.

Why we need to check fear and greed index?

1. If public is extremely fearful, it may indicate that they are overly worried. This could create a good opportunity to buy.

2. When public becomes too greedy, it often means that the market is about to go through a correction.

God bless! Happy Week End!

Bullish Catalyst: Potential Binance and Coinbase listing

Bearish Catalyst: RON will unlock tokens worth $39.3m on April 27

Technical Analysis

• Support: 1.14163
• Resistance: 1.145

For the bulls

• Needs to stay above 1.145 to resume upward trend
• Upside Potential: 2.5

For the bears

• Downside Targets: 1.1248, 0.6, and 0.08
• Needs to break below 0.6 to confirm this downward trend to 0.08
• A break at 0.927 confirms a move down to 0.6

What is Ronin Chain?

Ronin is a layer 2 scaling solution for Ethereum blockchain that uses a sidechain to handle transactions off the main Ethereum network. Ronin chain is the blockchain network that powers the Ronin ecosystem.

The Ronin chain is specifically designed to support the development and deployment of blockchain-based games, digital collectibles, and other non-fungible token (NFT) use cases. It uses a proof-of-authority consensus algorithm to validate transactions and secure the network.

One of the main advantages of the Ronin chain is its fast and cheap transaction processing capabilities. By handling transactions off the main Ethereum network, Ronin is able to avoid the high gas fees and network congestion that can slow down and increase the cost of transactions on Ethereum.

The Ronin chain is backed by the team behind Axie Infinity, a popular blockchain-based game that has gained a large following in the crypto community.

Hacking Incident

In March 2022, there was a $600M hacking incident that occurred on the Ronin Bridge.

The Ronin team responded a week after the hack and immediately halted all transactions on the network to prevent further losses. They then worked with affected users to identify the stolen tokens and implement a recovery plan.

The skymavis team was able to raise funds to refund affected users and also implemented additional security measures to prevent similar hacks from happening in the future.

The hacking and the subsequent recovery stressed the importance of security in the blockchain ecosystem. It also demonstrated the resilience of the community and its ability to come together to address security issues and protect users.

Note: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

God Bless! And Happy Trading!

Note: The information provided is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

God Bless! And Happy Trading!

Hey there trading friends!

We’ve caught some few good Altcoin moves back in 2017 but ARDR trade pegged in BTC is definitely one for the highlight reels.

I’ve always been a fan of Wyckoff theory. Its a holistic approach in analyzing the markets. I mean, let’s be honest — you can’t just look at one aspect of the market and expect to make informed decisions!

Now, here’s where things get really exciting. We’ve gone above and beyond to simplify the Wyckoff method.

Among those creative solutions was the use of the fan chart I learned from John J Murphy’s book “Technical Analysis”.

I figured, when I was able to spot the “selling climax” of a downtrend, it was my cue that Wyckoff accumulation is underway. I did not have to mark all the events in each phases just to be able to keep track of the movements like most Wyckoff users do.

All I needed was to draw three lines from the previous peak to all subsequent peaks. The break out from the third line is my cue to enter position as this is the point at which the price is about to show signs of strength to break away from Wykcoff Range.

Not only did this technique simplified the method of buying along with the whales, but it also allowed us to identify early entries compared to the regular use of Wykoff method. This allowed us to capture most of the bullish move which maximized profit potential.

Few months from this trade in mid 2018, I saw a tweet from Peter Lebrandt about compound fulcrum bottom. This was the first time I came across of the term and so I studied it.

Interestingly, it did looked like the Ardr set up, which makes sense because the pattern is also an Accumulation Range set up. But this pattern is quite unique because while it does look like a head and shoulders, it only occurs as a bottom reversal which makes it rare.

In fact, before Peter’s tweet, I was not familiar with this term as it has not commonly appeared in the past.

However, once it caught the attention of crypto Twitter, it gained popularity among technical traders. Over the past few years, we have observed numerous instances of this setup in the crypto market, and it has become a regular occurrence.

Formation:

The compound fulcrum is an extremely rare pattern.

In fact, if a chartist diagnoses this pattern more than once every few years, then it is being over diagnosed. The compound fulcrum — actually originates in point and figure charting, not in classical charting principles.

The compound fulcrum is always a bottom pattern — — never a top. It occurs when a market forms a complex H&S top pattern after a prolonged and extended decline.

-Peter L Brant

Interpretation:

The Compound Fulcrum pattern is interpreted and indecision pattern as it can be a potential trend reversal or continuation depending on which level it would break out.

If it breaks upper trendline resistance, indicates a bullish pattern, and traders should look for a long entry.

Conversely, if it breaks the support of the trading range, it indicates a bearish pattern, and traders should look for a short entry.

Targets:

The target for the Compound Fulcrum pattern is calculated by measuring the distance between height of the head from the base or range support.

This distance is projected from the breakout point to determine the potential target.

Statistical Performance:

There is however, no statistical data for the accuracy of the Compound Fulcrum because it is not well established as it is a relatively new pattern.

However, traders who have used this pattern have reported a high level of accuracy.

Pattern Failure Points and Fakeouts:

The pattern can fail if the price breaks out of the resistance but fails to maintain the momentum. Traders should be cautious of fakeouts, where the price breaks out of the pattern but quickly retraces back within the fulcrum range.

It can also fail if it breaks bellow the support, leading to a bearish head and shoulder continuation pattern.

Why does the pattern work?

The pattern works because it identifies a period of consolidation in the market, followed by a potential trend reversal or continuation. The pattern’s success is due to the underlying market psychology, where traders are either buying or selling at key support or resistance levels.

From a previous a downtrend with lower low and lower high, the structure decelerates into even level lows and higher highs in the middle of the pattern. It eventually changes to higher highs and higher lows once it breaks higher than the peak of the head of the pattern which was the fulcrum.

An just like fulcrums in real life. The higher pivot point around which a lever rotates, the greater the force needed to create the “cause” , hence the resulting “effect” is even greater just like the example I showed in Ardr.

How is it significant to the current market?

Sushi is on a possible compound fulcrum while also currently beleaguered with incidents of hacking and regulatory legal battle with SEC.

• Support: 0.94
• Resistance: 1.3 and 1.88
• Breakout Target: $2.88, $3.65 and $5
• Downside Risk: 0.0515
• Invalidation Point: Break below 0.0515

As always, this is just my opinion and should not be taken as a financial advise, remember to do your own research and consider your own risk tolerance before making any trades.

That’s all for now, trading friends.

Good luck and happy trading!

Other Examples:

See also:

• Chart Patterns: Navigating Pitfalls, Potentials and Challenges
• Mastering Fan Principle: A Comprehensive Guide
• Broadening Wedge Bottoms
• Trading Progression Guide: Seer Signal Edge
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #02
• Compound Fulcrum by Peter L Brandt

Welcome to our crypto newsletter, where I intend to provide you with the latest insights on the crypto market. In this edition, we will cover the following:

1. Top News
2. Market Overview
3. Coin/Token Analysis
4. Upcoming Events
5. News and Events
6. Conclusion
7. Related Publications

1. Top News for the week

Inflation rises just 0.1% in March and 5% from a year ago as Fed rate hikes take hold

The consumer price index rose 0.1% in March and 5% from a year ago, below estimates.

Excluding food and energy, the core CPI accelerated 0.4% and 5.6%, both as expected.

Energy costs fell and food prices were flat. Used vehicle prices also declined.

A 0.6% increase in shelter costs was the smallest gain since November, but still resulted in prices rising 8.2% on an annual basis.

2. Market Overview:

Government crackdown on digital assets still evident with the Sushi subpoena. This was aggravated after SUSHI experience $3.3 M hacking incident. The team however is making good progress in the recovery effort.

We dipped initially last week but on April 12, 2023 we saw an aggressive rally across all markets in light of positive CPI announcement.

Recent CPI Data release had been encouraging as it showed a glimpse of deceleration, pointing out that we will likely see end to aggressive Fed Rate hike over the past year.

Another hacking incident transpired just today on Bitrue Exchange. Attackers were able to exploit a hot wallet taking away $23M in the process. The story is developing.

Overall market trends, including index indicators point to a brief short term dip .

We will likely be bearish short term as BTC will try to retest its previous breakout area.

3. Coin/Token Analysis:

Bitcoin (BTC): Our long term outlook still valid. $42K remains to be our key level which decides Bitcoin’s long term direction.

Our previous fan chart reversal signal on $BTC was invalidated after BTC broke above the resistance at $29,400.

Here’s an update:

• Support: $29,400
• Resistance: $31,600 — $32,000
• Directional Bias: Bearish Divergence- H1 and H4
• Breakdown Target: $28,800
• Upside Risk: $35,600K
• Invalidation Point: $32,000

BTC RSI, 1D

Source: https://alternative.me/crypto/fear-and-greed-index/

Why we need to check fear and greed index?

1. If public is extremely fearful, it may indicate that they are overly worried. This could create a good opportunity to buy.

2. When public becomes too greedy, it often means that the market is about to go through a correction.

Ethereum (ETH):

Eth resumed its long term bullish trend as we have discussed last week as it breached resistance at $2,000. Current level is at $2100. Will likely retest break out point before resuming uptrend. Bulls need to be cautious here as the break out did not have enough volume.

We have a divergence with volume which is a sign of weakness. It currently has a bearish divergence at daily chart. The breach is also not yet confirmed.

A successful bounce at current support however, will see Eth to reach its inverse head and shoulder target.

Let’s see how it goes.

• Support: $2,000
• Resistance: $2,339
• Breakout Target: $3,631 if further break out
• Downside Risk: $1,695
• Invalidation Point: $1,340

Binance Coin (BNB): There’s been a lot of FUD growing on binance lately.

No Changes from last week, retest on resistance on progress.

The attempt to break through resistance that occurred 4 weeks ago was unsuccessful, as the momentum slowed down during the retest as seen in the RSI. This was clear evidence of the failure.

Now its trying to mount another possible attempt in the short term.

• Support: $272
• Resistance: $346
• Breakout Target: $460 (low probability)
• Downside Risk: $110 if triangle breaks to the downside

Doge Coin (DOGE):

Doge managed to bounce on a hidden bullish divergence on H4. Its still in the range and possibly will attempt to break from accumulation range.

No changes on key levels.

• Support: 0.06419
• Resistance: 0.1048
• Breakout Target:0.15
• Downside Risk: 0.026 if break below 0.06419
• Invalidation Point: Break below 0.1048

Sushi Token (SUSHI):

Despite the recent hacking incident, Sushi’s team responded promptly and the damage was minimal.

And while facing legal battles with regulators, Sushi managed to retain its levels and even experienced minor rallies.

Currently, Sushi is in a Wyckoff accumulation range, which makes it an interesting opportunity to watch.

If it breaks the whitelines, it could signify a significant move.

Moreover, it’s on a possible compound fulcrum bottom, and if it breaks to the upside, it could potentially lead to a strong bullish rally.

• Support: 0.94
• Resistance: 1.3 and 1.88
• Breakout Target: $2.88, $3.65 and $5
• Downside Risk: 0.0515
• Invalidation Point: Break below 0.0515

5. Upcoming Events

Major:

• BTC Halving: April 22,2024
• Fed Interest Rate Decision: May 03, 2023 02:00PM ET
• LTC Halving: August 5, 2023

Minor:

• Consensus 2023: Austin Apr 26–28, 2023
• AVAX Summit: Barcelona May 3–5, 2023
• XMR Annual Meeting: Prague,June 25, 2023
• Sweatcoin Beta Game Release, June 30, 2023
• ETHCC: Paris, July 17–20, 2023

Source: https://coindar.org/en

Token Unlocks:

• DYDX will unlock tokens worth $15.2m on April 11
• BIT will unlock tokens worth $96.67m on April 15
• APE will unlock tokens worth $66.46m on April 17
• AXS will unlock tokens worth $32.1m on April 17
• RON will unlock tokens worth $39.3m on April 27

Source: https://token.unlocks.app/

6. News and Events:

• Crypto exchange Bitrue suffers $23M hack due to hot wallet exploit
• Texas lawmakers propose a gold-backed state digital currency
• Sushi’s head chef addresses community concerns amid SEC subpoena
• Sushi DEX Approval Contract Exploited For $3.3M
• Sushi’s Head Chef Releases Statement Over SEC Subpoena
• Jump in Shiba Inu Breed-Themed Tokens Is Unsustainable, Crypto Traders Warn
• The NEAR Blockchain Operating System is Coming to ConsensusCrypto exchange Bitrue suffers $23M hack due to hot wallet exploit
• Bill protecting Bitcoin mining rights passes in Arkansas Senate and House.

Conclusion:

The CPI index is displaying signs of deceleration, which is a positive indicator in the long-term perspective. This suggests that there may be some easing up on Fed hikes in the near future.

Last week, we experienced a brief dip but then a strong bounce due to positive results in CPI.

While the recent hacking incident on Bitrue may have some impact on the ecosystem, it’s expected to be minimal.

In the short term, there’s a bearish outlook as the recent BTC rally didn’t gain strong momentum.

However, a successful bounce after the retest at 29,400 could generate the momentum needed to test $32K.

Related Publications:

• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 14, 2023
• Coin Index Watch (Alerts) Market Index Update: April 7, 2023
• Crypto Insights: News and Analysis Roundup #01
• CPI and Fed Rates: Bull or Bear?
• Bitcoin Dilemma
• “Technical Analysis: Is the Recent Bitcoin Rally Sustainable”

Big Reminders!!!

We are bounded by probabilities.

Take control of your fate, manage your risk:

“Know when to hold ’em and when to fold ’em, cut your losses, let your winners ride!”

Even the best probabilistic models have their limitations, and there are always factors that are beyond our knowledge or control.

Anything can happen.

Note: The information provided in this newsletter is for educational and informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial or investment advice.

Trading cryptocurrency involves significant risk, and you should not invest more than you can afford to lose. The content provided is based on our analysis and opinion, and we do not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided.

You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions and should seek the advice of a qualified financial professional before making any investment.

Thank you for reading our weekly crypto newsletter. We hope you found this analysis helpful. If you have any questions or feedback, please feel free to reach out to us.