Mike Soroka

Mike Soroka, 27 (wow, he’s young!), possesses one of the most unique careers on this list. Making his MLB debut in 2018 at the age of 20, Soroka played for the Braves and White Sox before signing a deal with the Nationals this offseason. An All-Star in 2019, one of the most game’s talented young pitchers, and a member of the Braves’ elite group of SPs, Soroka’s career shows that development isn’t linear. He had shoulder issues and a right Achilles tendon surgery after the fabulous 2019 season (2.68 ERA / 174.2 IPs / 142 Ks) and didn’t reappear until 2023. He then got flipped to the White Sox, put in the bullpen, and finally got stretched out to be an SP. He’s been a solid signing for the Nationals, and there’s more upside here.

Before his struggles post-surgery, Soroka leaned on a mix of Sinker (SI), gyro Slider (SL), Four-seam fastball (4S), and Change-up (CH). This heavy-duty SI usage made him one of the most effective groundball (GB) pitchers in the league. The SL and CH provided solid whiffs, and the 4S served its role collecting strikes and functioning as the back-up Fastball (FA). Due to his injury, Soroka’s pitch shapes and delivery changed. There will be a video below, but one notices he had a higher leg lift, more weight shifted on his back leg, and more spinal tilt getting down slope in 2019. He’s a lot more rotational and appears more balanced in his lower half in 2024. The tendon injury affected his ability to shift his weight in his delivery. His vertical release point went from 6.5 ft in 2019 to 6.2 ft in 2023 — pre- and post-surgery, respectively. His SI had better perceived steepness, but evened out after his recovery.

After this new development, Soroka had to shift gears. He leaned on his 4S/SL combo, taking center stage with the SI now in the backseat. Results on the 4S/SL combo were good; the SL returned a 41.9% whiff and .341 SLG, and the 4S had a 21.1% whiff and .358 SLG. The 4S has some deviation from his arm slot:

Moving on to this year, Soroka changed his Slider into a Slurve (SLV) shape. Although there appears to be a minor grip change, I think Soroka is working with a Curveball cue now as opposed to a Slider one. He’s thinking more supination/outside of the ball/curveball. The new shape creates more favorable contact and better in-zone rates, albeit at a slight dropoff in whiff%.

Here’s a comparison of the shapes:

• 2025 Slurve: 81 MPH / -12 iVB / -8 HB
• 2024 Slider: 82 MPH / -5 iVB / -4 HB

Soroka is leaning more heavily on the 4S this year (12.5% increase) and has almost completely dropped his SI and CH usage. The 4S has put up a .523, and the whiff is down — likely related to that increase in use. He’s also toyed around with a Kick Change-up to create more whiffs as it deviates from his slot. Enough summary, let’s get to some changes for Soroka.

Soroka has room for three easy adjustments that will lead to success. The first change revolves around pitch design: Soroka needs to throw a pitch to bridge the SLV/4S. He throws his SLV on the 2S tracks, so flipping the grip to the other side of the 2S track will create a hard gyro SL or cutter (FC) shape. Using a slider cue but heater intensity with the grip pictured below should get him to this shape: 87 MPH / 5 iVB / -3 HB. Experiment with your grip, thumb positioning, and intent. Soroka also spins his breaking balls well like Robert Stephenson and Drew Rasmussen, potentially creating late seam-shift on his gyro SL — more on that for a different day.

The next change regards his pitch usage. Mike is essentially a two-pitch SP; unless those two pitches are elite, hitters play a game of chance at the plate, sitting on one of his two pitches (usually guessing the heater and doing damage). Soroka needs to mix up his pitches. Against righties (RHBs), Soroka needs to use more SI for first-pitch strikes (0–0 counts), use the new FC and more SLV in 2Ks or ahead of hitters, and use the new FC and SI when behind in the count to create more favorable contact. He could also sprinkle in the Kick CH when needed for a whiff or weak contact. Against lefties (LHBs), I’d use a hair more FC first-pitch, more SLV, and either CH variant when ahead in counts, and the new FC when behind to LHBs. Having both CH variants — if he shows command and distinct shapes for both — would create more options to RHBs but even more favorable results against LHBs.

The last adjustment for Soroka is location-based. I want him to use his 4S and SI more in the outer-third to RHBs to steal a strike and to create a different look. I also want him to front-hip the SI to LHBs to maximize his ability to jam them, especially early in counts.

Some of these changes need to take place in the off-season, but here are the easier ones: 1. Try the FC shape. 2. Use more SI early and when in trouble to RHBs. 3. Be creative in getting LHBs out — could be more CH or the new FC. If his command isn’t great to the gloveside, then that execution would be an off-season goal.

Soroka is a free agent at the end of the year and is earning an affordable $9 million this year. He is one of the most intriguing arms at this deadline, almost certain to be traded, and possesses a higher ceiling with minor adjustments.

Possible Destinations: Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays, or San Diego Padres

Charlie Morton

Charlie Morton, 41, is no spring chicken. After a difficult April, Diamond Chuck moved to the bullpen in hopes of better performance, and shortly thereafter, he returned to his rightful role as an SP. With the Orioles in the AL East’s cellar this year, Charlie is a lock to be traded.

Morton is another interesting story; a late bloomer, he broke out at the age of 33, fueled by his elite Curveball (CU) and a change in pitch usage — a tale reminiscent of Seth Lugo. Morton played for 9 years before his breakout, mostly with the Pittsburgh Pirates. Going to the Houston Astros was the best thing for Morton’s career. He won a World Series in 2017, went to a Championship Series in 2018, and signed a 2 year/$30 million contract with the Rays in 2019. He was also an All-Star in 2018 and 2019, later appearing in the 2019 Playoffs and a World Series again in 2020. Charlie then won the World Series in 2021 with the Braves, the team that drafted him. He had a legendary World Series performance, where he continued to pitch with a broken leg. That’s the pitcher I’d want to start a World Series game for my team. As time starts to wear on Morton, the results have gone backwards for the 41-year-old:

• 2022: 4.34 ERA / 172 IPs / 205 Ks
• 2023: 3.64 ERA / 163.1 IPs / 183 Ks
• 2024: 4.19 ERA / 165.1 IPs / 167 Ks

This year is different for Charlie Morton. While he was primarily CU/4S since 2017, Morton is tapping into his extensive pitch mix. He’s accessing more supination and leveraging seam effects on his SI/4S/CH. Without getting into the nitty-gritty, Morton increased the iVB (carry) on his heater by 2 inches, improved his CH — 2.5 MPH increase and 3 inches more drop, and created more late seam-shift on his SI. He changed the grip slightly on the 4S and SI; he dropped his old CH grip for a Kick CH grip. An old dog can learn new tricks after all, in this case, leveraging the seams to continue his career. So why is Charlie performing so poorly?

2025 has Morton grasping at straws; the shapes, locations, and results are all similar to the last two years. I think the issue stems from pitching in the zone more often, giving batters a chance to do more damage. The good news is that the SI is as good as it’s ever been, and the new CH gives him another whiff pitch.

Here’s how Charlie gets better for a competitor: he mixes things up, works on his locations, and becomes aware of when the game gets away from him.

Charlie’s easiest fix is shifting his pitch use. He needs to find a way to improve his 4S/CU results. Against RHBs, I’d give the FC more runway. The results don’t look great on paper, and there’s some trouble commanding it, but looking at the videos of his use, it’s been a great pitch. It’s different from all the other pitches in his arsenal and provides more room for the 4S and CU to operate. I’d go more 4S/FC first-pitch, give the FC a chance when ahead in counts, and more FC/CU behind in counts. Morton’s formerly elite CU fares better against LHBs. For LHBs, I’d go more SI first-pitch (I’m a huge fan of the front-hip strategy), sprinkle in more CH ahead in the count, and then leverage the FC behind in counts. Being smarter with usage is going to help make Morton’s bread and butter better.

For locations, Morton needs to elevate his 4S more often. The pitch performs its best at the top third of the zone or out of the zone. He needs this location to get better, especially in 2Ks. The CH has an amazing shape, but its location means it’s an insta-take out of the hand. The Orioles have used a middle-middle target at times to maximize the miss distance and ability, but I’d emphasize starting it top shelf and letting it drop. He would also be a fun pitcher to play around with more glove-side locations to right-handed batters.

The last thing that’s always confused me about Diamond Chuck is the blow-up outings. PitcherList refers to a pitcher who blows up as a ‘Cherry Bomb’ or ‘HIPSTER.’ Morton always has outings where things get out of control, and here are examples from this year: BAL @ TBR 7/18 — 5.1 IPs / 4 Ks / 7 ERs, BAL @ ATH 6/7— 2.1 IPs / 5 Ks / 4 ERs, and CIN @ BAL 4/20–2.1 IPs / 2 Ks / 7 ERs. These starts tend to go shaky command or poor execution, runners get on base, execution gets worse, or he barely misses targets, and they capitalize. There are clear warning signs when Charlie starts to fail, and playoff teams have quicker hooks.

If I had to give Charlie 3 things to make him better: 1. Use more FC and CH. 2. Elevate the 4S more, especially when ahead. 3. Continue to compete and trust the team to be aware of blowups.

Possible Destinations: Seattle Mariners, Kansas City Royals, or San Diego Padres

Luis Severino

Luis Severino, 31, has searched for himself after his return from a multitude of injuries over the past 5 years. One of the Yankees’ most impactful pitchers in the last decade, he found himself on a deal with the Mets last year and performed admirably. Now, Severino is having an odd season for the Athletics. The A’s signed him to a 3 year/$67 million contract, the largest guaranteed amount of money in franchise history, but the results haven’t been convincing. He’s posted a 4.95 ERA / 125.1 IPs / 92 Ks. Although many pundits bring up the home/road ERA splits, he’s not whiffing hitters well and getting hit around. How did Severino get here?

Luis is a pitcher who has always thrown hard. He was in the top 10% of Fastball velocity from his debut in 2015 to his second All-Star campaign in 2018. He primarily relied on a 4S/SL combo during this period, and the results were extremely fruitful. After suffering a multitude of lat injuries and then getting Tommy John Surgery (TJS), one of the most valuable SPs in the AL threw 120 IPs from 2019 to 2022. The lat injuries continued to follow him in late 2022 and later into 2023, his worst season to date. These constant lat issues are most likely a byproduct of how he throws the ball and gets to his release. 2023 saw Severino leaning on an expanded pitch mix with notable introductions of the FC, SI, and SW. He likely didn’t have great feel that year, but 2024 marked the start of a rebound. Sevvy weaned off his power 4S and leaned on his SI and SW more (21% and 16% increase year-over-year). These pitches created more favorable results for Severino through a 46.3% groundball (GB) rate and 5.7% barrel rate. Helping the Mets get into the playoffs, Severino also made several playoff stats last year and was electric.

This season is going poorly for Severino, with everything trending in the wrong direction. The most notable differences from his tenure with the Mets and his current year with Sacramento are the GB rate and whiff rate drop-offs. GB% (higher the better) and hardhit% (lower the better) went from 46.3% and 35.6% in 2024 to 41.8% and 43% in 2025. The whiffs on his SW, FC, and SL dropped 17.2%, 8.6%, and 15.4% this year. The strangest part about his decline is that all of the shapes are similar in both years.

Initially, I thought his performance was better on the road or that the A’s were using a pitch-to-contact strategy. The road part isn’t true, but the pitch-to-contact might be. There are two reasons why this strategy might be occurring: a 10% increase in FC use this year overall (if split by hands and use cases, it jumps even more), and different pitch locations/execution strategies. There are three significant changes in location on the SI/SW/FC. In 2024, Sevvy emphasized using the SI down and in on batters; this year, it’s left up and catches more plate. The SW isn’t buried as well as it was in 2024 and left up in the zone, likely to freeze a batter or catch a back or front door. The FC has a similar issue, left up for batters to catch out in front. If these changes were more privvy to LHBs or RHBs, they would work like burying FCs in on LHBs’ hands or SWs in on LHBs, but these are more general pitch location strategies. Can Severino recover this season?

There are a few things Severino needs to try as the season winds down.

The only pitch design change would be throwing a CU or Slurve (SLV) shape to create a more vertical look to his extremely East-West game. I think he could throw a CU with a shape similar to 84 MPH / -8 iVB / -5 HB using a grip on the two-seam (2S) tracks. Spencer Bivens — who has a similar arsenal, slot, and supination capacity — made a similar change this year. He could also play around with a Kick CH or Splitter/Split-Finger (FS/SPL) to create more whiffs, especially to LHBs.

The main change for Severino is being able to execute and locate his pitches as well as he did last year. Burying the SW and SI down and in, and using the FC in on LHBs and for a strike against RHBs would help tremendously. If he can create similar locations, then the results will follow.

The last issue to address is pitch usage. I’d lean heavier on the 4S/SI first-pitch, use less SI when ahead, and more 4S behind in the count against RHBs. Against LHBs, I’d use more FC first-pitch, more SL + less SI ahead in the count, and more FC behind in the count. This count is also where the new CU could come in, and unless he develops a better feel with the current CH, I’d kick it from the arsenal.

Severino’s talent is clear: he still throws mid-to-upper 90s and possesses a nasty arsenal. He needs to improve his approach and locate more effectively to get more favorable results.

Possible Destinations: New York Mets, Los Angeles Angels, or New York Yankees

Kyle Freeland

Kyle Freeland, 32, at first glance, is a bad pitcher. He’s been a member of the Colorado Rockies his entire career; however, this fact could change at the drop of a hat. Freeland isn’t having the best season, but it’s his changes, above-average command, and durability that signal his potential. Let’s dive in.

Freeland, drafted #8 overall by the Rockies in 2014, has spent 9 seasons in Colorado, generating a career 4.54 ERA / 1,199 IPs / 894 Ks. After an amazing year in 2018 and two postseason appearances by the Rockies in 2017 and 2018, Freeland hasn’t had much to cheer about. Competing in one of the toughest divisions in the league, the Rockies (besides their historic mismanagement) have spent many seasons in the NL West’s basement. Although the Rockies lacked any competitive fire, they signed Freeland to a 5-year/$64.5 million contract in 2022. That was a sizable and deserved reward for the most stable pitcher in Colorado. Freeland has suffered a few injuries recently: a right shoulder subluxation in 2023 and a left elbow strain in 2024, limiting his durability.

Coming into 2025, Freeland made some sizable changes. Coors kills pitch quality and pitch separation, but Freeland found ways of mitigating this effect and generates much more distinct pitch shapes than in years past. He’s no longer a pitch-blender, but an SP with a fleshed-out mix. The best part of Freeland is the better CU and new SW. He was always a three-fastball shape guy, but now he has two legitimate whiff pitches. The CU has a better overall shape this year as it’s thrown hard with good depth, and the SW gives him a pitch to carve LHBs. The most important part about acquiring Freeland is how Coors kills his shapes and affects his results.

Freeland has always posted above-average command through his low walk rates and high in-zone rates. This superpower, coupled with the improved shapes and a bit of deception, makes Freeland an easy pitcher to bet on.

The change that Kyle needs the most is his pitch locations. The biggest location issue is his 4S. It’s being thrown down the middle, and even if the whiffs won’t be better than league average, the whiff jumps by 6% when he throws it at the top of the zone, which he’s shown the ability to do on multiple occasions. The CU could be buried down in the zone, like in 2024, especially ahead in counts, and the SW needs to be pushed even more out of the zone. He does such a great job at striking the ball, but when he gets ahead of batters, he needs to expand the zone.

In terms of pitch usage, he needs to leverage his complete mix. Against RHBs, he needs to use everything first-pitch like a mystery box. Freeland has good use in 2Ks but should drop the 4S even more. Sprinkling the SI and FC when he’s behind in the count will get hitters off his 4S. For LHBs, I’d say go with more CU and SW ahead in counts and drop the 4S when behind for the SI. Freeland does get killed versus righties, but he’s got enough in his arsenal to minimize the damage.

The last change for Freeland is toying around with the CH to find a better shape. This change could be spiking it, splitting it, or getting it on the 2S tracks to garner more pitch movement that’s deviated from his arm slot.

Freeland is owed money, but he is a capable back-end starter capable of pitching in the postseason. Getting out of Coors will be the best thing he’s ever done.

Possible Destinations: Seattle Mariners, Houston Astros, or Boston Red Sox

Tomoyuki Sugano

I saved the best for last — renowned command-artist Tomoyuki Sugano. Sugano, 35, is a perplexing pitcher: he’s a 35-year-old rookie, uses the kitchen sink to get outs, and played in the Nippon Professional Baseball (NPB) for 12 years. He doesn’t strike out the world but commands the ball well and uses his mix to throw hitters off-balance.

Sugano was a highly-touted prospect before his NPB debut. Drawing comparisons to Greg Maddux for his command and stuff profiles, Sugano impressed many teammates and carved in the NPB. His career stats in the NPB are incredible — 2.45 ERA / 1857 IPs / 1585 Ks. He only posted one year with an ERA above 3.5, in 2019. In an interview with Jake Rill, Miles Mikolas said about Sugano: “First thing I said to him when I saw him [last week in Baltimore], I said, ‘You’re late.’ I said, ‘You should have been here four years ago, maybe five.’ When I came back in 2018, I told him every year that I was in Japan, I said, “Hey man, you’ve got to go to MLB. You’ve got some of the best stuff I’ve seen playing baseball.” What makes Sugano so special?

Although he’s posted a 4.38 ERA / 109 IPs / 71 Ks in 2025 so far, he grinds hitters down. He throws three fastballs (4S, FC, SI), two breaking balls (SW and CU), and a unique SPL shape. He barely walks anyone and posts above-average zone rates on three pitches. Due to his slot and arsenal, the GBs aren’t great for Sugano, and he succeeds by creating a variety of weak contact results, including flyballs and pop-ups. His SPL has posted quality results so far (.283 SLG and 26.4% whiff).

The two changes I have for Sugano are usage and location-related.

For Sugano’s pitch usage, he needs to use all his tools well. He gets killed in 0–0 counts versus RHBs. Against righties, he also needs to throw a mystery box for his first pitch, use the SPL/4S combo when ahead, and more 4S/FC behind in the count. Against lefties, he needs to use more FC ahead in the count and mystery box behind in the count. Diversifying the arsenal, along with his exceptional command, makes his shapes play up.

For his location game, Sugano’s command makes changes easy. His two best pitches in 2Ks are the SPL and 4S. The SPL is good because of its unique movement and location, and the 4S he elevates in 2Ks. The other pitches catch way too much plate, even as he goes to whiff set-ups. Get that SW away and get that CU down!

Sugano is talented and suffering in his first taste in the MLB, but his talent and abilities are worth big-league trust.

Possible Destinations: Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, or Kansas City Royals

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Honorable Mentions: Andrew Heaney, Erick Fedde, Jeffrey Springs, and Tyler Anderson

Andrew Heaney, 34, is a strange pitcher. He pitched well for LAD in 2022 and TEX from 2023 to 2024, but he’s struggling this year. Heaney leaned away from his 4S/SL combo that made him special. The velo has fallen each year, and he’s accessing more supination this year, which is a bad thing. Get him back to his superpower.

Erick Fedde, 32, is an East-West guy who doesn’t have amazing velocity and was recently DFA’d by the Cardinals. The Braves claimed him, and there’s something there. He won the Choi Dong-won and MVP in the KBO in 2023. He likely needs a better 4S and downer breaker shape.

Jeffrey Springs, 32, is a higher-slot pronator with a great mix. He won’t blow hitters away with velocity, but his crossfire delivery enables sustainable results. He’s cost-controlled and worth an extended look by a competitor, although I don’t think he’s for sale.

Tyler Anderson, 35, is a fun pitcher with deception and a ‘bad’ arsenal. Similar to Heaney, he had a career revival in LAD. He struggled a bit in his first year with the Angels, but he looks like a bona fide SP2 for them. His funky delivery and shapes tricks hitters. I also don’t think he’s available due to his owed money and the Angels’ hopes for a playoff spot.

Jimmy Herget

Jimmy Herget, 31, is a journeyman reliever (RP). Once a trusted arm in the Angels’ bullpen, he posted poor results in 41.1 innings pitched (IP) over the last two years. Even with disappointing results, analytically inclined teams claimed Herget and gave him tryouts at various points. Although the Rockies make some of the most questionable decisions in baseball, they claimed Herget off waivers from the Cubs, giving him an extended look for 2025 — and he’s repaid them in full: 2.89 ERA / 53 IPs / 43 Ks.

Drilling down further, he’s pitched to a 1.23 ERA / 22 IPs / 14 Ks on the Road. Although the underlying stats tell a different story about how he’s getting success (not great K-BB%, avg. whiff%, or poor GB%), Herget has historically had above-average command and elite contact suppression skills. While he’s average in some categories, I think Herget is a great change-of-scenery candidate and has shown significant improvement this year, especially in his arsenal versatility.

A sidearm supinator with low extension, Herget creates one of the more unique looks in the MLB. His arsenal includes a sweeping curveball (CU), a gyro slider (SL), a sinker (SI), a four-seam fastball (4S), and a changeup (CH). Herget’s recent success relates to his increase in SL usage. He’s relied heavily on the CU/SI combo over his career, which led to a phenomenal 2022 season. The new SL and its use not only bridge the gap between the two offerings but also create an additional threat of his SL. This newer pitch also helps with his struggles against left-handed batters (LHB) because of the arsenal’s extreme East-West nature. He also spins the CU ~3000 rpms, possessing above-average ability to spin the baseball and manipulate his wrist position to create pitch shapes (hence the other shapes as well).

Herget’s changes are pretty standard for an RP. There is some shape manipulation available, but the easiest fix is his pitch usage. For RHBs, I’d increase CU and 4S 0–0 and more 4Ss in 2Ks. For LHBs, I’d bring up the SL use 0–0, leverage more SL behind in the count, and use more 4S in 2Ks. Even without changes to his season, Herget would be a valuable arm as the shapes will play better away from Coors, and he’s shown significant improvement. He doesn’t have options; however, he becomes a free agent in 2028.

Possible Destinations: Tampa Bay Rays, New York Mets, or Seattle Mariners

Jake Bird

The next pitcher on the list is also a member of the Colorado Rockies: Jake Bird. Bird, 29, has a fascinating arsenal but an equally interesting baseball mind. Interviewed by Fangraphs recently, he discussed his career year with the Rockies and his changes to perform at Coors. The full piece is linked below.

In his four seasons with Colorado, Bird has displayed moments of success. Although he has a career 4.40 ERA, Bird showed durability in 2023 when he threw 89 IPs. He runs above-average to elite GB%, average in-zone rates on his SW/SI, and possesses unique pitch shapes. His contract status grants his team 2 more option years, and he becomes a free agent in 2029.

Bird is similar to Herget as a low-slot supinator limited in extension (and just like Herget, he runs his CU up to ~3000 rpms). His East-West arsenal goes SW, SI, CU, cutter (FC), and 4S. He creates a unique look through a deceptive delivery in which he ducks down and rotates through his body. His extreme supination bias, paired with his seam orientations, allows him to have a ton of deviation from his arm slot. The perfect example of this effect is his new Sweeper shape:

• 2024 Shape: 85.5 MPH / 3 iVB / -10 HB
• 2025 Shape: 84 MPH / 6 iVB / -14 HB

He’s flip-flopped the Sinker and Sweeper use, and it’s paid off, as evidenced by the jump in whiff% and K%.

Bird’s changes are also tied to pitch usage. He could design a better 4S, but that’s an off-season goal and might be difficult given where his wrist is in space at ball-release. The quick hits on Bird against RHBs are to throw more FC and CU first-pitch and less SI in 2Ks. Essentially a righty-killer, Bird struggles to get the job done v. LHBs. Bird needs the FC against LHBs. If he uses the SI, hitters will wait on it or drive it away, regardless of how much it deviates from slot. Use more FC first-pitch and more FC behind in the count. He can shape a gyro SL (which could be useful against LHBs), but I want to simplify the mix. Just like Logan Webb, Bird’s FC is fine even if it might not have the most aesthetically pleasing shape.

I will not sugarcoat it: Bird has been awful in high leverage this year. 18 Gs / 12.46 ERA / .559 SLG. Woof. He has been better in years past, and maybe it’s just a change of scenery thing. The upside and tools are there; it’s up to the acquiring team and Bird to put it together.

Possible Destinations: Seattle Mariners, Philadelphia Phillies, or Tampa Bay Rays

Shelby Miller

Shelby Miller, 34, is having a renaissance on a selling team. Although he’s been injured (currently on the IL with a forearm strain) a couple of times over the past couple of years, Miller’s potential has always been tantalizing. A top prospect and key piece in both the Jason Heyward and Ender Inciarte/Dansby Swanson trades, one could say Miller had a fine career just 5 years ago.

After being an SP for 7 years, Miller found his way to the bullpen. He bounced around on waivers for a bit but then showed a revamped arsenal with the Giants in 2022, allowing him to land a contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers (LAD) for 2023. Miller played well for LAD and parlayed that performance into a role with the Tigers; however, the injuries continue to follow Miller, particularly in his elbow. Props to the Arizona D-Backs (AZ) for signing him and believing in him, as he will net them a prospect at the deadline. His 2025 line: 1.98 ERA / 36.1 IPs / 40 Ks.

Interestingly, Miller’s success with the Dodgers and D-Backs features different usages for his pitches. Always having a great 4S, Miller used more SW in LAD and more Split-Finger (SPL) in AZ. He’s a higher-slot, pronation-biased pitcher. His 4S is a unique pitch: 95 MPH / 18 iVB / 11 HB with 7.1 ft of extension from a 5.3 release height. Coupled with its location in the upper third of the zone, Miller destroys hitters.

The main changes for Miller are leveraging more secondaries in 2Ks and developing/throwing a better gyro SL or bridge pitch. His 4S falters a bit against RHBs late in counts, which throwing more SW or SPL could alleviate. He had a cutter as his main secondary for years — this pitch would be phenomenal to re-add. It might be an off-season goal.

He’s been decent in high leverage this year (19 Gs / 4.15 ERA / .417 SLG), but I’d trust his experience heading into a postseason.

Miller has some familiarity with the teams listed below, and these teams need high-leverage arms.

Possible Destinations: Los Angeles Dodgers, Philadelphia Phillies, or Detroit Tigers

Isaac Mattson

Isaac Mattson, 30, is finally breaking out for the Pirates. He’s posted a 2.42 ERA / 22.1 IPs / 25 Ks. He performed similarly at AAA this year: 2.57 ERA / 21 IPs / 25 Ks. Mattson’s career is a strange one: he was a prospect with the Angels, he pitched with the Orioles’ AAA depth for two years, then bounced around on minor-league (MiLB) deals until landing a gig with the Pirates. Another talented pitcher on a clear seller, Mattson has a ton of control (only 0.029 years of service time) and 2 minor league options.

So how does a 30-year-old, minor-league journeyman become a potential add for a playoff contender? Although he releases from .7 ft higher and has a slightly shorter extension than Shelby Miller, both pitchers have similar strengths: they use their 4S about 65% of the time, throw a split-grip off-speed as their primary secondaries, and pummel hitters with upper third 4S locations. Mattson is leveraging his unique talents as a higher-slot pronation-biased pitcher: carry 4S and good CH.

Mattson’s delivery is also somewhat unique. He changed his starting position from his debut in 2021 to 2025 (notably his pelvis). He starts on the first-base side of the rubber and strides toward the batter, almost slightly across his body.

Although it’s more or less Mattson’s first season in an extended look, he’s had a few games in higher leverage. He’s had 8 Gs / 7.36 ERA / .500 SLG so there’s room for improvement.

Mattson’s changes stem from some pitch design more than usage because he’s posted some limited whiffs. He limits damage and SLG but lacks a second whiff pitch and struggles when he gets into 2Ks. I propose keeping the SL but spike-gripping the old CU on the two-seam (2S) tracks. He’s tried a SW shape as the whiff pitch, but there’s little feel given his arm swing/arm action. The 2021 CU was good but too slow, hence spiking the breaking ball and cueing it something like “throw it hard, think slider, PR velo, etc.”

I do wonder if there’s room to make him more cross-fire while maintaining the velocity to increase deception. This idea is an off-season project.

Possible Destinations: Philadelphia Phillies, New York Mets, or Tampa Bay Rays

Garrett Cleavinger

The last pitcher that isn’t talked about enough heading to this deadline is the only lefty on this list — Garrett Cleavinger. Cleavinger, 31, is having a great season: 2.48 ERA / 36.1 IPs / 49 Ks. He does almost everything well and has elite whiff%/K% this year: 35% and 33.3%. His arsenal is SI/SL/SW/4S/FC. The best part is he’s a free agent in 2028 and only costs $1.2 million this year.

Cleavinger has an interesting baseball story as well. He’s been a piece in two major trades: Jeremy Hellickson in 2017 and the Jose Alvarado deal in 2020. The Dodgers gave him a decent run, but injuries and the roster crunch led to his departure from the City of Angels after 2 years. The Dodgers traded him to the Rays, and Cleavinger found himself in Tampa Bay. He’s been a stud for the Rays since.

Cleavinger, a 3/4 slot supination-biased pitcher, is a mid-to-upper 90s left-hander with a deep pitch mix. All of Cleavinger’s pitches are average or above-average by eye tests, Stuff+, pitching bot, etc. The lefty has a deceptive delivery: he sinks low to the ground and hides the ball behind his back, only showing it to the batter as he releases the pitch. This deception helps the already good ‘stuff’ play up even more. The delivery isn’t without consequences — this unique movement pattern, velocity, and pitch movements lead to average to below-average in-zone rates. If he commanded the ball better and was more durable, he would be an SP3.

He’s doing well in high leverage this year: 15 Gs / 3.68 ERA / .433 SLG.

The Rays interestingly swapped Cleavinger’s pitch use from 2024 to 2025. Leaning on the SI/SL/SW combo as opposed to 4S/FC/SL has been amazing. The Rays optimized his pitch usage very well for this season. There is some room for more 4S/FC, but there’s also a reason they went away from it. It would be great to see Cleav embrace an even pitch usage to make batters gamble at the plate every time they see him. He’s the best left-handed RP people aren’t talking about.

Possible Destinations: New York Mets, Seattle Mariners, or Philadelphia Phillies

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Notable Mentions: Aaron Bummer, Jose A. Ferrer, and Anthony Bender

Aaron Bummer, 31, is worth an article about his potential: uniqueness, plus shapes, above-average command, and durability. He swapped his SW for CU this year and dropped his FC. He’s a free agent in 2027 and is worth stretching out to a starter (more on that soon).

Jose A. Ferrer, 25, is a fun arm for many reasons. He has two option years, virtually no service time, and already pitches high leverage for Washington. He throws upper 90s from the left side and needs to optimize some usage. Ferrer also limits hard contact and has great command (doesn’t walk anyone, plus has above-average zone rates).

Anthony Bender, 30, is an East-West, lower-slot supinator who is also mid-to-upper 90s. Every pitch in his arsenal is above-average, and he has a funky delivery. He has 3 option years and is a free agent after 2028.

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https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-conversation-with-jake-bird-the-pitching-nerd-conquering-coors-field/

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/shelby-miller-is-still-evolving/

Everyone knows the struggles of the Los Angeles Angels. Smack dab in the heart of a division with heavyweights like the Houston Astros and Texas Rangers, and flanked by two low-payroll, innovative organizations — the (now Sacramento, soon-to-be Las Vegas) Athletics and Seattle Mariners — the Angels haven’t made the playoffs since 2014. They’ve had chances since. The same team that saw the end of Albert Pujols’ great career, Mike Trout’s peak, and Shohei Ohtani’s rise to power now has a chance to make the postseason with a different roster than the star-studded lineups and albatross contracts of years past.

The Angels’ situation is a strange one at best. A team that refuses many modern, analytical initiatives and is led by one of the game’s more hands-on owners — Arte Moreno — is doing surprisingly well this year. This organization ‘rushes’ players to the big leagues and bases its roster construction more on talent than fit, but they have done a great job of late.

This team is the embodiment of the saying, “one year better, not one year older.” There are many young, breakout players: Zach Neto, Nolan Schanuel, Jo Adell, Christian Moore, etc. Neto, 24, went from a .761 OPS in 2024 to a .794 OPS in 2025 with significantly better batted-ball outcomes, notably a 14% increase in LA Sweet-Spot%. He’s gone from a 5 WAR defensive-first Shortstop to an above-average hitter. Schanuel has gone from a .705 OPS in 2024 to a .763 in 2025. He’s striking out less and making better contact, and so on. Jo Adell, 26, is the other player to mention.

Adell, once a top prospect, is one of the toolsiest and most-talented players in the MLB. He had elite sprint speed, bat speed, and exit velocities. He drew comparisons to Mike Trout, and after 6 seasons, Adell is finally breaking out. Also increasing his OPS by 100 points this year, Adell built on necessary changes and his superpowers. He’s always made loud contact, but now Adell is making more flush contact and contact more often. His Z-Contact% increased from 72.6% in 2023 to 78.9% in 2024 and then to 81.6% in 2025. His whiff decreased from 38.5% in 2023 to 29.8% in 2024 to 28.4% in 2025. The barrel% increased 5.3% and LA Sweet-Spot% increased by 5.2% from last year. He’s made some stance changes that have driven this productivity since 2023. Starting more squatted down, Adell has a shorter leg kick and more flexed, less extended body ‘shape’ this year. This position allows him to maintain coordination in his pelvic position, and he gets to pitches better. This Jo Adell is the superstar everyone expected.

Mike Trout is a bit different this year. He suffered a rough first three months in the season, and after a multitude of injuries over the last couple of years, Mike Trout suffered another one: a left knee contusion. Trout sold out for power or three-true outcome in the first third of the season (.180 AVG / .250 OBP / .450 SLG and a 30.6% whiff), but since returning from the injured list, he’s a more well-rounded threat at the plate (.277 AVG / .401 OBP / .459 SLG and 26.5% whiff). As Mike acclimates to his previous level of play, powered by more rest and focus at DH, the league needs to watch out. Each player on this team deserves a deep dive.

Although he’s no longer the everyday manager of the team due to medical issues, Ron Washington is to credit for many of the players’ breakouts. Washington is a true leader of men and has coached from 1996 to 2025 in various capacities. He’s had 10 years as the manager of MLB teams, including two World Series appearances with the Rangers in 2010 and 2011. Washington brought in much of his staff and familiar players over his tenure with the Angels (the team loves familiar players — check their AAA depth and the number of times the Angels selected them to the roster or their relation to Wash), but more importantly, he sat down with young players like Jo Adell and leaders like Mike Trout to give the team more guidance and a stronger identity. This strength, coupled with the team’s lack of analytical application, leads me to believe that the team has incredible feel or intuition.

This team trusts its players to compete. They seem to have great feel and intuition in their hitters and setting them up to succeed. Young players who faltered in years past, like Adell and O’Hoppe, are given more chances to play without blocking from others. Adell had 6 years and everyday development before he put it together. The team signs many veterans, giving them an extended runway to put it together in Anaheim. Yoan Moncada was uber-talented but was constantly injured over the past years — he’s figuring it out; Tyler Anderson posted a horrible first year with the Angels and rebounded nicely. Tim Anderson got a shot at the Shortstop job early in the year, and Chris Taylor looks better in a small sample for them.

Now that we’ve talked about the wonderful seasons this team put together, let’s move on to the trade aspect of this article. The Angels are in an extremely weak division. The A’s have dropped to last place, the Rangers don’t look great this year, the Mariners can’t hit, and their starters are injured, and Houston has a whopping 17 players on the injured list, but a gritty team fueled by underappreciated players like Zack Short and Cooper Hummel. The time is now for Anaheim to go all-in. They have one of the worst farms in baseball, Mike Trout is only getting older, and the core is strong enough for a deep playoff run. They have enough trusted arms for a push: SP — Kikuchi, Anderson, and Soriano; RP — Jansen, Detmers, and Zeferjahn. This team needs pitching because it has the 3rd worst FIP in the MLB (4.64) and 3rd worst K-BB% (10.0%).

Although the Angels could get a bat on the market to bolster their line-up further, buying a utility player like Willi Castro and getting pitching is necessary. Anaheim needs a veteran SP that they can trust to start a playoff game and give them innings to get there. They need an arm that doesn’t need guidance or adjustments. The starters I would inquire about are Seth Lugo, Merrill Kelly, and Luis Severino. All of these SPs have deep pitch mixes and postseason experience. I’d prefer Lugo or Severino because the whiff potential is extremely good. Severino, in particular, is one of the best road starters in baseball. He’s locked up in Sacramento but signed to a decent deal, so if they get him, they can keep him for the foreseeable future.

A potential deal for Severino:

• LAA gets Luis Severino
• ATH gets Christian Moore, Chris Cortez, Nelson Rada, + Sam Aldegheri

The Angels have had a traumatic past buy-situations like the 2023 Waiver Claim fiasco of acquiring Hunter Renfroe / Luis Giolito / Reynaldo Lopez; however, the future looks grim due to the rushed development and farm depletion. If Soler and other players click, the Angels have a chance.

The Angels’ playoff appearance would also jump-start energy into one of the more beautiful, quiet stadiums in the league. I’ve gone to a couple of games in the past couple of months (making the endless drives there and back). The staff is warm and friendly, and the architecture reminds one of a resort.

Due to the playoff drought, Ohtani’s flight to the other LA team, and Trout’s fleeting stardom, the fan base is crying out for something. I know many Angels’ fans, and they know the end is near for one of the greatest centerfielders to ever man the outfield. The fandom understands the lack of analytics leading to some of the most disappointing seasons in recent memory and the reluctance of Moreno to sell the team. These issues culminate in a decent drop-off in attendance (Angels went from the 6th most attended stadium in 2014–2019 to the 11th in 2021–2025). A Nationals’ level decline might be inbound for Orange County’s team.

With the amount of talent on this roster and Trout’s eventual decline, the Angels might as well push all their chips to the middle.

Enter Seth Lugo. Drafted in a round that does not exist anymore (the 34th in 2011, pick #1032), Lugo amazed everyone and defied all odds to not only make the MLB but become one of the most valuable pitchers over the last 3 years. I will not go too much into his story, but here are some quick hits: he has pitched well at every level he’s been at, he was a piece of the Mets’ exceptional group of Starters (Syndergaard, deGrom, Wheeler, etc.), and he was put in the bullpen from 2018 to 2023. Outside of a couple of injuries and minor details, Lugo was always good enough to start, but never had a clear shot at a constant, consistent, talent-packed Mets’ rotation.

Lugo fully transitioned back into starting in 2023 with the Padres. Astute is an understatement in describing the level of savviness displayed by the Padres in that signing. They got ~150 IPs of ~3.5 ERA ball from a guy who had not thrown more than 100 IPs in his previous 5 years. This change of scenery was also important for Lugo’s arsenal, and the Padres leveraged his unique spin capacity (we’ll get to it in a moment) to develop a Slurve, Sweeper, Seam-Shifted Change-up, and depthier gyro Slider. Besides the value to the Padres in terms of innings pitched and experimentation with pitch design, this move also revived Lugo’s career, as he proved to teams that he is not only a healthy SP but also one with upside. His arrival in Kansas City (props to their belief in a 34-year-old SP with a seemingly shaky track record) only accelerated Lugo’s reaching of his potential.

So what makes Lugo special? What differentiates him from the other Aces around the league? What makes him stand out amongst his pitching staff? Similar to his comrades Michael Wacha, Noah Cameron, and Michael Lorenzen, Seth Lugo is not a fireballer. Rather, he uses his large mix and roulette of pitch usage to thrive against hitters.

So, how does he create so many pitch shapes? Seth Lugo has a unique ability to manipulate the baseball. Some call this trait supination or radial deviation or middle finger strength, but what is clear is that Lugo has “wrist talent” and extreme breaking ball ability. This “wrist talent” allows him to orient his wrist in a multitude of ways to shape breaking pitches. Pairing certain orientations (grips) with his wrist angle, Lugo can achieve seam effects. He gets into this supinated position stronger and likely at a higher wrist speed than other pitchers, which then allows him to manipulate the baseball. This trait also allows him to spin his breaking balls so well (which does matter to some degree for batter perception of a pitch, hence ‘Buzzsaw Curveball’). PitchingNinja interviewed Lugo on his Curve, and he said, “It’s all in my wrist.”

In a 2025 interview with MLB, Lugo provided more insight on his specific seam orientations and wrist position on his pitches:

Seth Lugo shows off his different pitch grips, more | 03/10/2025

How many pitches does Lugo have? With Kansas City, he has featured a Curveball, Four-seam Fastball, Sinker, Cutter, Change-up, Slurve, Slider, Death Ball (depthier gyro Slider), Sweepier, Split, and Slow-Curveball (which has been VERY good this year). Okay, that’s a lot of pitches! Although he’s got a unique talent to throw many pitches, does it matter?

Before we get into the fun part of the article, the practical application, we need to understand one more idea. Marek Ramilo over at Driveline is not only one of the best public-facing analytics minds, but also has developed a fleshed-out understanding of ‘tunneling’, but more importantly, pitch decay. Adding a bridge pitch is useful for a number of reasons (command or more favorable contact quality), but its ability to prevent pitch decay is equally important. A good example is a pitcher that is an East-West arsenal and has a Sinker and Sweeper. Batters will sit on one pitch or the other because the movement profiles are so extreme (Max Resnick’s article on Jordan Hicks comes to mind), and adding a cutter to the arsenal would prevent the two main pitches from decaying. It is not just the movement of the bridge pitch that matters, but the threat of the pitch.

Seth Lugo has an incredibly diverse mix, and it shows. David Morgan produces great statistical insight and ranked the Top 10 Pitchers by Arsenal Size. Lugo has the most pitch types of any pitcher with a 2-pitch lead over Chris Bassitt, Yu Darvish, etc. He also has the most ‘even’ arsenal, in which he does not lean on one pitch more than others. Why does this matter?

Lugo’s even distribution is quite troubling as a hitter. He throws almost every pitch evenly outside of his bread-and-butter: Four-Seam and Curve. Although Lugo is going to lean on certain pitch types over others due to use case or contact suppression, the threat of having 10 pitches to face every at-bat drives hitters insane. Imagine that you are facing Lugo as a hitter. The scouting report says heaters early. He starts you with a first-pitch slow curve. Next pitch Sweeper. He then bullies you with breaking balls the rest of the at-bat. What do you do? Batters do break up the zone and pitch types into buckets like fast, slow, sweep, run, etc., but Lugo’s ability to make his arsenal blend together creates beneficial results. It is not just the ability to throw any pitch in any at-bat, but the threat that he could throw any pitch at any time. It’s almost like hitting against a mystery box. His command and ability to shape also influence game-planning against opposing line-ups. If a hitter has a flatter swing plane, he uses his steeper pitches to create swing-and-miss. If a hitter has a steeper plane, he’ll use heaters or off-speed.

This FanGraphs article does a great job of showcasing his ‘evenness’ and how he attacked a 2024 Yankees’ line-up:

Seth Lugo's Kitchen Sink Approach Has Worked Brilliantly

The last important piece of the Lugo-insanity is his delivery. He hides the ball at the start of his delivery, then raises his arms above his head while doing multiple foot taps. As he starts to come down the mound, he has a high leg-lift and a short arm-action while hiding the ball behind his head the whole time. He does not get a ton of extension (which might allow his Curve to break more over time), but he has enough deception.

Just wait until Lugo starts throwing a knuckleball. Then it’s really over for the league.

Further Food for Thought:

Mikey O’Connor had a great question. Mikey: “Do you think having like Lugo, Martinez, Bassitt, Megill in the same rotation would cause decay towards each other, cause every guy throws 7+ pitches, or would it still be hard to prepare for?”

• I think that having multiple pitch mix masters would actually be more difficult to play against, as 1. You now have to game-plan against more and more pitch-mixing 2. The decision fatigue builds, and the momentum slips away from hitters, the more tools a pitcher has.

How sustainable and replicable are Lugo’s pitch shaping and usage strategies?

Does throwing more than 2 Curveball shapes matter in terms of hitter awareness? If they see slow, even if the shape is different, does it matter?

I want to show a certain archetype, the relationship between Quinn Priester and Corbin Burnes, and another pitcher for the archetype.

There are different classifications, such as supination-pronation and high-slot, low-slot, and three-quarters. I also considered a newer classification of either breaking ball or fastball proficiency to more easily clarify and identify an athlete’s strengths. However, I will discuss a specific pitcher archetype and how it has created success for a previously struggling pitcher.

Enter Quinn Priester. The 24-year-old, a former first-round pick and highly-touted prospect, had struggled at the MLB level until this year. After posting above-average results throughout his MiLB career, Priester was promoted by Pittsburgh (PIT) on July 17th, 2023.

His first two MLB seasons featured some encouraging signs through his Slider shape, strong ground-ball rates (>53%), and an improvement in BB% in 2024. Although there were some good things, Priester pitched to a 7.74 ERA / 50 IPs / 36 Ks in 2023 and a 4.71 ERA / 49.2 IPs / 33 Ks in 2024. Safe to say Priester did not move the needle for PIT (as Skenes would) and would eventually be squeezed out by the pitching depth of Boston (BOS).

So what changed for Priester? How did he go from AAA depth and the seventh SP in the Sox rotation to a legit MLB arm? The short answer is he became Corbin Burnes.

Priester has done a great job of emulating Burnes (I would imagine when the comp. was floated to him he was instantly bought in). Priester decided to remove his cutty and ‘bad’ Four-Seam (4S) shape for a true Cutter (FC) by adjusting the grip on the pitch. He’s leveraging his plus gyro Slider (SL) more than ever and leaning on his Sinker (SI). The comp. to Burnes is shown through Burnes’ 2019 pitch plot and Priester’s 2023 pitch plot:

Already at the outset of their careers, both pitchers possessed cutty 4Ss, good gyro SL shapes, and runner SIs with decent Curves (CU) and Change-Ups (CH). Although Burnes had a higher velocity output and has a different body type than Quinn Priester, they have similar 4S/SL/CU tunnels and throw from similar slots. This supination ability and familiarity with Burnes allowed Milwaukee (MIL) to make some minor changes to maximize QP’s performance.

Priester did try an FC with BOS in 2024, but it finally stuck when he arrived in MIL. They shifted his 4S to that FC grip, and this new grip posted a 5.7% increase in in-zone% and generated more favorable contact results.

Now that Priester has developed this new pitch and better vertical tunnel, what is next for the Brewers’ pitcher?

They will continue to toy around with usage and breaking ball shapes (please spike the CU!), and the one leg that Priester has up on Burnes is his SI shape. Although he throws slower than Burnes, the SI comes from a higher launch and has more drop, making it a ground-ball fiend.

Another pitcher who could fit this archetype is the Marlins’ Max Meyer. Meyer has undergone a substantial overhaul each year he’s been in the big leagues. In 2023, he started from a higher slot or more North-South plane-of-rotation, and in 2024, he added a Sweeper (SW) and re-shaped his SI.

The Marlins love Meyer’s velocity and breaking ball ability; however, shifting his 4S to FC feels like the natural progression for his arsenal. His 4S is a bad pitch by any measure outside of his ability to strike it (IZ%). He will have to balance feel with shaping, but his supination ability and similarities to Priester and Burnes mean that he could have a better Fastball (FA) shape that minimizes contact quality.

Shifting the grip to an FC grip similar to Priester (really any grip that gets that effect) should help the Marlins’ SP take the next step to be their next Ace.

This article needs to be published now more than ever. There is a lot of confusion on this topic because it is nuanced. Is player X a pronator? Is player Y a supinator? But here’s the biggest question of all: Does it matter? I’ll delve into my understanding of pronation and supination, the role of pronation-supination, and the way that seam effects play in arsenal construction.

What is Pronation?

Pronation is when the wrist becomes closed or internally rotated as the ball is being released. Technically, all throwers pronate when they throw the ball, but the difference in wrist angle at release and shaping ability is what creates this spectrum.

Think about how pitchers turn over Change-ups or get behind Fastballs. A pronator is an athlete who flashes a good Fastball shape with high spin efficiency, a quality Change-up, and a limited Slider shape. Think of Tread Athletic’s Pronator Triangle: Fastball, Gyro, and Change-up shape.

A good rule of thumb was 90 to 100% spin efficiency; however, this rule has changed. A pitching analyst or coach should not only use spin efficiency to determine bias but also use slo-mo video to see the wrist at release, look at the player’s movement plot, and observe the ‘throw’ of the athlete.

A couple of popular pronation-biased pitchers with MLB success are Devin Williams, Ryan Pepiot, and Jose Urena.

What is Supination?

Supination, on the other hand (or in this case, wrist angle), is when the wrist is open at release or the forearm is externally rotated. Supinators are usually characterized by seam-shifted pitches like seam-shift Sinkers, Sweepers, and cut-ride Four-Seamers. These supinators also throw the ‘Supinator Special’, in which they throw multiple breaking ball shapes.

Supinators cut the ball to get to their pitch shapes. Imagine ‘holding a bowl of soup’; that’s a supinated wrist/arm position.

Some popular supinators are Corbin Burnes, Max Fried, and Griffin Jax.

Besides the two pitches shown being different pitch types, the point is to emphasize wrist position at release being in either a pronated or supinated state.

What creates pronation or supination in the throw?

This section is the most important part of the article. How one ‘gets’ to their wrist orientation creates ball-flight (paired with seam orientation/grip, which we’ll get into later). I am still learning these aspects myself.

The body takes the path of least resistance.

Everything leads to ball-flight data. A rough understanding of how a thrower gets to their end-point or release is Pelvis → Torso → Arm. If a player has early torso rotation, they will cut the ball unnecessarily at release. If a player has minimal ‘hip-shoulder separation’ or pelvis-tipping, they could push the ball later in ball-flight as opposed to throwing it, causing velocity and shape issues. If a pitcher’s plane of rotation changes, and they start to get scoopier in their throw, they will get into more supinated positions.

Intent is another way in which supination and pronation are created. If a pitcher isn’t throwing at their highest intent, they won’t get behind the ball well or apply the most efficient force as they get to the end ranges of motion. I’ve seen this happen with athletes where they will be at the farther end of the pronation spectrum, 95%, and in a max-intent bullpen, they will sit around this spin efficiency. However, in lower-intensity bullpens, their spin efficiency declines as does their velocity.

There is also a hand limitations aspect to this question. Some guys are physically limited in getting to pronated or supinated positions. A pronator could have difficulty throwing a Sweeper, and a supinator could have difficulty turning over a Change. Some throwers also have chronic issues that lead them into supination or pronation; Tyler Glasnow and his carpal tunnel are to credit for his unique cut-ride heater.

The pitch type that a player throws is important to how their wrist moves in the throw; think about how a pitcher is cued into turning over a Change versus a football cue for a gyro Slider.

A lot of the things go into wrist positions, but these limitations are not the end-all be-all.

When does pronation-supination matter?

This idea doesn’t matter (and pitch design by extension) for throwers under ~90 mphs. When a thrower is sub 90, they need to focus on gaining strength or mobility and working on their throw to maximize velocity. How are they filling their buckets of strength, skill, mobility, etc?

This dynamic matters when leaning into a player’s strengths or if a player loses velocity on their fastball. If a guy is tapping out of his strengths to throw a certain pitch, then he needs to reconsider what makes his pitching style unique. If a player loses velocity by prioritizing cut or getting to a certain shape through compensations, he needs to know his identity. Preserve their uniqueness.

I think this idea matters when considering arsenal design and versatility, but overall, seam effects push the natural lense of each bias out of the way.

A New Way of Looking at Pronation-Supination

The main goal of analyzing pitchers in this way is to lean into your strengths and uniqueness. This idea still applies to most throwers, and the way forward applies to the dynamic of Breaking Ball Ability (wrist talent or spin ability) vs. Fastball (or Off-Speed Quality).

Orion Kerkering really broke the Pronation-Supination dynamic for me; he’s a high-efficiency Fastball thrower with upper 90s velocity and a double plus Sweeper — all which seems contradictory in terms of natural biases. Nick Pivetta also creates multiple supinated pitches even though he has a high efficient Fastball.

For each case I will talk about an MLB pitcher and a pitcher I work with for the classifications.

Regarding Breaking Ball Ability, it’s been called many different things by analysts and scouts. Referred to as wrist talent, supination ability, etc, it describes the ability of a player to throw a multitude of breaking balls, usually with one pus breaking ball. The thrower orients their wrist in many ways to develop numerous breaking ball types.

The MLB pitcher who is the exemplar for this ability is Seth Lugo. He throws a high-spin curveball and has exceptional feel to throw and develop almost any pitch, especially breaking balls. He’s up to 11 pitches this year.

I worked with athlete Sam Brady these last two years at LMU. Similar to Seth Lugo, he throws a 3000 rpm Curveball and can throw almost any breaking ball shape. He added a Sweeper with a plus shape from a single grip orientation change. The wrist talent is clear.

On the other side of the spectrum is the Fastball specialist. A lot of pitcher that the Brewers target show this pronation ability. The MLB pitcher I want to focus on is Cal Quantrill. Notice his unique ability to get carry behind the ball, generate multiple Fastball shapes, and throw that plus Off-Speed.

I also worked with Jacob Fried at LMU, and he was a pitcher that fell into this extreme Fastball quality and Off-Speed shape spectrum. We tried developing a multitude of breaking ball shapes, and the one we ended up using was a spiked breaking ball grip.

How is my idea different from the Pronation-Supination stuff out there? I advocate leveraging seam effects to create more shapes for pitchers. As opposed to focusing on a pitcher’s natural tendencies, I want to use seam effects, which is a combination of seam orientation and wrist position/orientation, to give players as many options as possible.

If we were sticking with the Pro-Sup dynamic as opposed to being creative and leveraging seam effects, we would have never developed Jacob’s breaking ball.

The Role of Seam Effects

Seam effects are everything in today’s game.

Leveraging how the ball moves through grip (seam orientation) and how a pitcher releases it (wrist position/orientation) is the current state of the game. Spiking a breaking ball or changing an axis or adding a pitch to a pitcher could earn them tons of money and ensure continued playing time — look at Kansas City and their pitch additions to veteran arms.

Optimizing seams and grips to achieve the best shapes for players is essential. Using simplistic cues to minimize negative compensation patterns and orienting seams properly achieves movement that public-facing analysts thought were impossible for certain pitchers.

Pitchers and coaches should play around with grips and see what works.

I will be publishing more content on seam effects in article format and on Twitter; Seam Stamps is a great resource for how certain orienations paired with certain types of throwers result in ball-flight changes: https://seamstamps.com/.

Questions for Future Investigation

Does the spacing of fingers on grips lead to pronation-supination in ball-flight?

Is there an injury risk in players tapping into more or less supination or pronation?

Can we train supination and pronation ability to create more capacity and workload for various pitches?

Thank you for reading and be sure to follow my Twitter and Medium for more content!

So, what is the strategy behind the Royals’ starting success? The Kansas City Royals (KCR) take older pitchers, often undervalued in terms of financial value and notoriety, and with above-average command, to reach the logical conclusion of their archetype: the kitchen-sinker. These pitchers add pitches and leverage their outlier feel to get hitters out. This strategy relies on pitch mix diversity. Recent examples include Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, and Michael Lorenzen.

One of the reasons why it makes sense for the Royals to sign these older guys and try to maximize pitch mix, besides their proven ability to eat innings effectively, is that as a pitcher ages, pitchers lose velocity and experience slot drop. This loss of velocity and slot drop occurs as tissue quality degrades and injuries catch up with pitchers. With the loss of velocity, pitchers need to get increasingly creative. Adding pitches to starters with above-average command and feel allows these pitchers to generate success as they age. From a training economy standpoint, it’s also significantly easier to teach new pitches as opposed to adding velocity and fixing the slot-drop/Plane of Rotation decrease.

Seth Lugo is the best example of this strategy (and I will have more to say about him on a different day), as evidenced by his ability to throw 8+ pitches. Lugo has been on a strange baseball journey to say the least: drafted in the 34th round, which does not exist anymore, originally a back-end starter, then a set-up man for the talent-rich 2016–2021 Mets, and finally a (deservingly) well-paid, productive MLB starter.

He began his journey into this underdeveloped realm of pitch mix in 2023. Always an outlier in his breaking ball quality and feel, Lugo tapped into his superpower and started throwing three different curveball (CU) variants: Curve (CU), Slurve (SLV), and Sweeper (SW). He’s now throwing a Slow-Curve (CS) and a shape similar to a Death Ball (DB), but that’s for a different article. Lugo throws almost every pitch type possible, and his talent netted him a 3-year, 45 million contract with KCR in 2023.

Other pitchers with success in this realm coming into KCR are Michael Wacha and Michael Lorenzen. Wacha added a gyro slider in 2024, which became his best whiff pitch that year, and Lorenzen dominated the last two years after a tough 2023. The Royals have a type, and it works well for them.

Why does this strategy work? I believe this strategy works for a multitude of reasons: pitch quadrants, optionality, batter familiarity and pitch randomization, and sustainability. My first point comes from the idea that hitters work in quadrants. Hitters always look to kill fastballs, but they simplify their approach to better compete at the plate. Let’s say a right-handed batter (RHB) and right-handed pitcher (RHP) are facing off. An RHB eliminates the incoming pitches into quadrants: slow pitch, fast pitch, arm-side pitch, and sweeping pitch.

Adding pitches to this plot increases decision time and creates confusion among batters. Now a hitter has to deal with a cutter (FC) to bridge the fastball (FB) and SW, and a DB to bridge the FB and CU. Hitting became a whole lot harder with two new pitches. This increase in pitches decreases a batter’s effective decisions.

The next point to consider is the optionality that more pitches provide to the pitcher. Having more pitches gives more opportunities for optimal use cases through count leverage and quality of contact. Adding an FC for a guy to get ahead early or a sinker (SI) to limit aerial contact creates better results.

Another benefit of adding pitches is batter familiarity with a pitcher. Imagine facing a pitcher three times in one game (Third Time through the Order) or facing a pitcher fifteen times in a year. Adding a new pitch to the mix versus a batter creates a sense of unfamiliarity and uneasiness. If a hitter waits on one pitch his first time out, a pitcher mixes in several new pitches his next time up. Think about Lugo versus Aaron Judge. The first at bat, he throws him FB, CU, SI. The next time he faces Judge, he can throw his SI, FC, SW, etc (accounting for zone rate and use case, of course).

Piggybacking off this point briefly, Marek Ramilo at Driveline references Pitch Randomization in Pitch Mix+ and Match+ as another frontier for pitchers. Having a deep mix allows a pitcher to throw any pitch in any count, and like a gambler, the batter has to choose what pitch to hedge his bets on. A starter will go to more favorable or feel pitches over others, but the threat still looms to hitters.

The last point is that this strategy is relatively sustainable for older pitchers, especially with the ability to command and shape. Lugo and Wacha are not going to add more velocity, but their ability to shape and command the ball makes decisions tougher. Some pitching minds believe that Fastballs are also the most stressful on a pitcher’s arm, and so, throwing less stress-inducing pitches creates more health and durability throughout a start, season, and career.

This strategy is not without potential trade-offs. Some trade-offs are loss of feel or pitch quality, time to add pitches, and practicality. A pitcher losing feel or quality on his main pitches as he adjusts to throwing new pitches is not good for the pitcher or his team. A guy goes to his FB and CU and loses FB quality for his FC shape. Does it still make sense to add it? A coach or analyst should also look at shaping ability and not force shapes onto pitchers (they should have a general feel for shapes about 5 pitches into a bullpen). Targeted work in bullpens and progressive loading with pitchers needing additional pitches mitigates this onboarding process. The last point is whether or not it’s practical to add pitches to a pitcher over a year. Does this pitch serve x use case? Does it make them better? Etc.

So, what will the Royals do with the mighty Dick Mountain? The Royals will make the most of his uniqueness. He throws around 6 pitches: Four-seam (4S), SI, CU, FC, SL, Change (CH), and SW. He does drop his slot to attack hitters occasionally (which is how he gets to his Sweeper and variants of his 4S/SI/CH). I think they will add a Slurve and develop a better normal-slot gyro SL, SW, and seam-shifted or kick CH.

Thank you for reading! This article is a preview of a couple of ideas I’m developing on pitcher strategy and philosophy.

Josh Staumont, Jake Diekman, Jonathan Hernandez, and Rafael Montero.

Josh Staumont, 30, is a fire-balling North-South supinator with a SL/SI/FF/CU mix. Staumont recovered from TOS this off-season and his results have been favorable but with a decrease in his stuff. Staumont featured a hard, death ball-like CU shape in years past (82 mph and -10 VAA in 2023) but sparingly throws it. His max FA shape velocity this year is 101.1, so he’s on the right track to becoming more effective.

https://x.com/RBunikiewicz/status/1819476172696363127

His arsenal is fairly platoon-neutral and needs an off-speed shape, probably an SPL, to have an arsenal that possesses high whiffs and generates a ton of weak contact.

Some changes for Staumont:

Although the entire arsenal generates strong results, I’d increase the CU use against both hands to generate called strikes + whiffs. It seems that MIN changed his old CU shape to a bigger gyro SL shape and added a harder, almost cutter SL shape.

Both FA shapes summon strong whiffs (47.1% on FF and 23.8% on SI). I’d use the FF more; it needs a middle-middle target because of its poor IZ rate (36.4%).

Overall, Staumont’s arsenal is ready to be slotted in a big-league bullpen somewhere. Use the harder SL shape to get in-zone, the bigger SL for whiffs, CU for weak contact and called strikes, the SI for weak contact, and the FF for whiffs.

Jake Diekman, 37, is a left-handed, East-West pronator. His mix consists of FF/SW/CH/SI/FC. He’s heavy on the use of his FF/SW/CH. He creates very wide horizontal approach angles. Diekman generates above-average whiffs and weak contact; however, Barrel% and Hard Hit% have fallen off significantly.

The main difference between this year and last year is that Diekman his velo is an mph down on all pitches, and he’s not throwing the SI and FC at all.

I’d increase Diekman’s SI usage to create more IZ% and re-add an old weapon v. LHBs. I’d re-implement his FC to steal strikes and create IZ whiffs when needed.

He might need a simplified approach and a big target. He looks like the successful Jake Diekman of ’23 with slightly different batted-ball results.

https://x.com/NYRSZN/status/1817969577046983118

Jonathan Hernandez, 28, is a low-slot (5.4 ft release) East-West pronator. He’s got elite velocity on three distinct pitches: SI/SL/CH. Both of his secondaries post above 35% whiffs, and his SI’s induced launch angles went from 11 LA to 4 LA this year. He also creates a ton of chase and whiff but not too many Ks.

Here are a couple of changes for Hernandez:

Depending on his SI-spotting ability, use two versions of the SI. One SI to gain strikes and create whiffs on the inner third to LHBs/outer to RHBs, and another SI to generate weak contact into RHBs/away from LHBs. Another change is to increase the CH usage to both hands to create more versatility in the arsenal. The CH does have below average IZ%, but it has above-average whiffs and an elite movement profile (probably why it misses). He might be throwing the wrong FA shape. He’s thrown some poorly graded FFs in the past, but he threw a SI at 99 mph / 13 iVB/ 12HB. Anything above 12 iVB from his slot will play in the upper third. I’d also like to see a general target for him to spot his secondaries.

https://x.com/MLBPipeline/status/1164370850251976704

Rafael Montero, 33, was a World Series winner in 2022 with the Astros. Although the spin efficiencies tell a different story, I think Montero is a North-South pronator.

His velo and iVB on his FF are down a tick from when he posted an exceptional 35.8% whiff in ’22. He’s also not throwing his SL at all this year and his IZ rates on FAs, his main pitches, are down about 5%.

Two changes I’d make to Montero are to add a bridge FC or throw the gyro SL harder and get him back to elevating his FF (which may come from a middle-middle target).

The SL shape has been beat up this year — 1.714 SLG and .976 wOBA in 51 pitches thrown — but Montero needs to keep throwing it. A harder shape will generate more swing-and-miss and help his recently inaccurate SL (26.3 IZ% in ’22, 36.9 in ’23, and 35.3 in ‘24). It’ll also help bridge the gap with his FF and recent SL shape.

His FF hasn’t been as prevalent in the upper third of the zone and needs to get back to that location to recreate his FF’s high whiffs.

Montero is ready for a big-league role but needs a few adjustments to get him back to being his old self: a key part of a Historic Astros’ bullpen and World Series run.

https://x.com/PatSullivan05/status/1818757663679005096

Hard hits, fly balls, and home runs victimize Baumann due to his velocity and release point. Baumann’s FF has been unlucky this year, and LHBs crush the pitch to the tune of a .905 SLG and .563 wOBA. Baumann should implement a usage change to his mix. He should be primarily CU/SL/CH v. LHBs (although LHBs also crush his CU). The SL will be the IZ pitch, and the CU/CH will create whiffs.

Baumann’s mix is palatable versus RHBs although he might want to increase SL/CH usage to create more challenges for batters (36.8% whiff on SL). Here’s where the next section and pitch idea comes to fruition.

I want Baumann to add a Splinker shape given his release, pronation bias, and feel for velocity. The pitch would have a steep VAA and create separation from his FF. This pitch would perform well versus both hands but should help his results versus the same hand, creating weak contact and low LAs.

https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1672745954494263296

Thyiago Vieira, 31, is another North-South pronator with plus velocity. He has a fiery presence on the mound and an arsenal of SI/SL/FF/SPL. He also has above-average extension at 6.9 ft. He’s a Tread guy and seems close to figuring it out and being a high leverage RP.

I’d swap his SI and FF usage. His FF grades out well but has the worst batted ball results in his arsenal (12 LA and 93.4 Exit Velo). Both FA shapes have similar IZ rates at the MLB level — SI with 56.7% and FF with 55.7%. The FF collects about 8% more whiffs than the SI and with a small location change to the upper third could collect more. Early SIs to generate weak contact and FF/SL to generate whiffs later.

Vieria’s issues stem from walks so throwing more FAs should correct that. The last change I’d make is to increase SPL use overall to create more whiffs and diversity in his arsenal.

Vieria is close to breaking out and being an effective RP.

https://x.com/beisebolmafora/status/1809161926498206089

Chase Anderson, 36, is an right-handed pronator and an SP/bulk arm. He’s got a deep mix of FC/CH/SW/FF/CU/SI. Anderson is in the prime of his career stuff-wise and needs another shot to capitalize on his stuff and correct his results.

Leaning heavier in to his SW and CH (his most valuable offerings) would result in a lower walk rate and more whiffs, even if it would decrease his IZ% by throwing fewers FCs.

Giovanny Gallegos, 32, is a North-South pronator who formerly carried an elite SL. This true bullet SL (11% spin efficiency) regularly boasts a whiff over 35%. He also has a decent amount of deception in his delivery headlined by a high glove move. Ever since his velo declined, Gallegos results, especially on his FF, have declined.

His FF velo dropped from 93.7 mph in ’23 to 92.2 mph in ’24: whiff went from 20.1% to 6.9%. Gallegos is opening up way earlier in his delivery this year, getting less hip shoulder separation, and not stacked over his pelvis.

A short term fix for Gallegos is developing an FC shape to bridge his effective SL and his poor FF shape. The bridge pitch would be 86–89 mph/7–9 iVB/2–5 HB because his FF is 92 mph/17iVB/8HB, and his SL is 84mph/0iVB/0HB. The bridge pitch would also help results because it would get in-zone more often, helping his subpar IZ rates on his FF and SL (42% and 35%).

Gallegos isn’t too far away from being effective again, and I think a team like LAD, notorious for their use and development of FCs, could help him be an effective RP once again.

https://x.com/PitchingNinja/status/1521219586095525888

NYM changed his shape a decent amount from 2023 to 2024. His SL has degraded this year (86 mph/1 iVB/-2 HB as opposed to 89 mph/0 iVB/-3 HB). The harder SL should get him in the in-zone more often as its a bullet pitch and easier to control. SW lost a bit of sweep (-4 HB), and the SPL is still elite (92 mph/0 iVB/10 HB).

He’s working his way back from injury but still worth a claim as he’s a fireballer with multiple plus shapes. Give him a middle-middle target and let him rip. He has options as well.

Josh Walker, 29, is an interesting North-South left-handed supinator with 2 option years and elite extension. The CU is a gyro ball and returns an extremely high whiff (47% whiff in ‘24). The SI is a nice addition for Walker to generate weak contact versus both hands as it sports a -15 LA in a smaller sample (60 pitches) at the MLB level.

The changes that I’d make to Walker are to re-add the CH and to throw a true FC shape. It’d help bridge the FF/CU shape to generate more whiffs on both of the pitches. His supination prowess should allow him to throw a harder, verty FC on the zero line.

Walker could also introduce a CU to land called strikes or add a SW to increase whiffs versus LHBs.

https://youtu.be/nJm7KnxTVEE

Vinny Nittoli, 33, is a low-slot, East-West supinator with a unique release (4.8ft), elite extension, and cross-body arm action. His arsenal is FC/SW/CU/CH/SI. He’s similar to CHC’s Tyson Miller in mix and stuff.

BAL recently signed him to an MLB deal and analytically-inclined organizations like SEA, PHI, NYM, and CHC have tried their hand at using Nittoli. His biggest struggle are his command issues, but the IZ% on the SW is around 45% this year.

Nittoli is worth a look at the MLB level as the whiff on the FC is 38.6% and his mix will create weak contact. Increasing the CH and CU usage to create more whiffs should make Nittoli a valuable arm for a competing team.

https://x.com/NorfolkTides/status/1811212334154584079

Jesus Tinoco, 29, is a right-handed supinator with an explosive arsenal: SL/SI/FF/CH. He changed his release from 5.9 ft in 2022 to 5.3 ft in 2024. He seems to have an ability to manipulate his SL shape into a harder slutter ( 89 mph/4 iVB/-2HB) or a more traditional SL (86mph/2 iVB/ -6 HB).

I think Tinoco is a usage tweak away from being a high-caliber RP. Using more SLs and CHs to pair with his SI will generate more whiffs, especially to LHBs.

Tinoco’s IZ rates are concerning at AAA (all pitches below 50% IZ); however, the newer, hard SL gets in-zone about 10% more than the old one. The SL also gets in-zone around 60% at the MLB level and collects a 40% whiff.

One other change that I’d make is to develop a bigger SW shape to have another weapon v. RHBs. This shape would be better if he can keep some of the lift he gets with his other SL. He should throw the new, sweepier shape occasionally to not mess up his current biomechanics.

https://youtu.be/C8zXwVdHWAY