The Briefing · Rates & FX desk
The soft landing the DSGE model refuses to call
Private analysts read above-trend US growth into late 2025; the New York Fed's own model puts recession odds at 46 percent. The disagreement is the trade.
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By The Ledger Desk
AI synthesis · 6d ago · 3 sources
The macro dossier on US growth is unusually bifurcated. On one side, Deer Point Macro and Capital Flows describe an economy reaccelerating through the second half of 2025 — credit creation firming, federal receipts rising, hiring intact, margins expanding off pre-tariff inventory.
