Ember

Ember is a public AI prediction engine designed to enhance the trustworthiness of predictions in the dynamic landscape of real-money markets. Built on the principle that transparency is crucial, Ember employs three distinct AI models—Claude (Anthropic), Grok (xAI), and Gemini (Google)—to independently analyze live markets on Polymarket every morning at 7 AM EST. This independent analysis enables Ember to identify high-conviction signals when there is a divergence of 10 or more points from the crowd consensus. Each prediction is timestamped and locked before outcomes are known, ensuring that no edits or deletions occur post-factum. With a focus on accuracy, each model's performance is tracked using Brier scores, providing a calibration metric that rewards both confidence and correctness. Ember serves prediction enthusiasts, traders, and analysts seeking a reliable, data-driven approach to betting.

Independent AI Analysis

Ember's unique approach utilizes three AI models that analyze predictions independently. This diversity in analysis prevents consensus bias and encourages genuine divergences, allowing users to identify high-conviction signals that could inform their betting strategies.

Real-Time Market Data

Ember synthesizes data from various sources, including prediction markets, bookmaker lines, and AI research feeds. This comprehensive data collection, executed in real-time, ensures that users receive the most up-to-date information before making decisions.

Timestamped Predictions

Every prediction made by Ember is timestamped before the outcome is known. This feature adds a layer of accountability, as users can verify predictions and outcomes without concerns of post-prediction edits or deletions.

Daily Divergence Alerts

Ember highlights daily divergences between its models and the crowd, allowing users to see which predictions are most mispriced. These alerts are issued daily at 7 AM EST, providing timely insights that can enhance betting strategies.

Betting Strategy Optimization

Traders and bettors can use Ember's predictions to optimize their betting strategies. By identifying high-conviction signals where the AI diverges from the crowd, users can make more informed decisions that could lead to higher profitability.

Market Analysis

Analysts can leverage Ember's data to gain insights into broader market trends. By understanding where AI models disagree with crowd sentiment, analysts can identify potential market inefficiencies and areas for further investigation.

Research and Development

Researchers in the AI and betting sectors can utilize Ember's comprehensive data and predictions to develop new models and methodologies. The transparency and accuracy of the data allow for rigorous testing and validation of new predictive techniques.

Risk Management

Investors can use Ember to manage risks effectively. By tracking the performance of the AI models and understanding when discrepancies arise, users can adjust their exposure to specific markets and outcomes based on informed predictions.

How does Ember ensure the accuracy of its predictions?

Ember tracks the accuracy of its predictions using Brier scores, which measure both the accuracy and confidence of predictions over time. This allows users to assess the reliability of the AI models.

What happens if the AI models all agree on a prediction?

When all three models agree, it is noted, but the emphasis is on divergence. The focus on disagreement helps users identify potential mispricings in the market, as consensus among the models is less likely to indicate an edge.

How often are predictions made and updated?

Predictions are made daily at 7 AM EST, with the results of these predictions locked in before any outcomes are known. This ensures that users have a clear and transparent view of past predictions.

Can I access past predictions and their outcomes?

Yes, Ember maintains a public record of all predictions made by its models, including outcomes and post-mortem analyses of any incorrect calls. This transparency helps users learn from past predictions and improve their betting strategies.