Dara Massicot (@MassDara) / X

Dara Massicot

2,795 posts

Dara Massicot

@MassDara

Senior Fellow, Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Russia and Eurasia Program, focusing on defense issues in Russia. Opinions mine RTs not endorsements.

Washington, DC

carnegieendowment.org/experts/2282

Joined April 2018

Pinned
Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Oct 8, 2025
Since early 2023, the Russian military has constructed a learning ecosystem to not only adapt to war but institutionalize its combat experience. It remains a flawed organization but it is preparing for the future. My latest ⁦⁦⁦@ForeignAffairs⁩
How Russia Recovered
From foreignaffairs.com
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Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Aug 1, 2022
The long-term damage to the Russian army, marines, VDV from this war cannot be overstated. It goes beyond the numbers of men killed and equipment destroyed. This will also be a story of a military generation that is damaged or gone, and who remains. /1
Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Dec 11, 2023
For those in town making choices on security assistance to Ukraine, if you need more reasons, then I have a warning to share with you about the Kremlin. I feel that I have a duty to warn. /1
2.2M
Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Aug 12, 2024
Russia begins its response to Ukraine's incursion into Kursk. Multiple ministries are involved and the command structure is still forming. Someone in Ukraine knew what they were doing and exploited a weak seam in Russian C2. A few important issues to watch: 🧵
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Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Dec 11, 2023
Replying to @MassDara
The Kremlin is starting to gloat that it is beating us – the west. If they feel like they can win by outlasting the political will of the United States and Europe about Ukraine, they will become much worse in the years to come, cocky and partially reconstituted. /2
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Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Nov 4, 2022
Russian forces are in the middle-to-late stage of a controlled withdrawal/retreat from the west bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson. A few thoughts about why it’s different than the panicky collapse near Kharkiv, and things to consider moving forward (/1 )
Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Jan 11, 2023
Today Shoygu and Gerasimov demoted Surovikin, and put Gerasimov in charge of the operation in Ukraine, demoting their most competent senior commander and replacing him with an incompetent one. This is a story that has it all: infighting, power struggles, jealousy /1
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Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Dec 11, 2023
Replying to @MassDara
Why? Every time the Russians think that they have “won” in a conflict under Putin -- Georgia 2008, Ukraine 2014, Syria 2015 – they learn something about us – and they become overconfident in their abilities and in a few years they try bigger and bolder operations. /4
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Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Oct 23, 2023
It appears that the Russians may be losing multiple brigade elements from the 2nd CAA and DNR forces in their assault on Avdiivka. Gerasimov strikes again, this time with no pushback on his bad ideas (so far). Yet there are some troubling issues to consider. A thread. (/1)
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Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Dec 11, 2023
Replying to @MassDara
It is my job to look at different futures being rebuilt on the horizon. And I tell you that a bruised , vengeful, and overconfident Russia is one of them that I see on the path we are on, unless choices are made now. /3
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Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Dec 11, 2023
Replying to @MassDara
If the Kremlin concludes they can outlast Ukraine and Western support, they will tell themselves they overcame or defeated US and NATO intelligence, planning, weapons, tactics, will, and defense production. It would be an inaccurate but dangerous conclusion for them to arrive at.
251K
Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Nov 13, 2024
I've returned from a research trip to Ukraine, where I met many people in Kyiv and along the frontlines. They are brave and kind in ways that words fail to capture. The situation is serious and urgent for many reasons. I share my thoughts in the thread below. /1
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Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Dec 11, 2023
Replying to @MassDara
The most important reason to continue to fund security assistance to Ukraine is for Ukraine. They want to live free from Kremlin subjugation and brutality. They fight hard, they do not ask anyone to fight for them. Look what they've done already to the Russian army./8
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Dara Massicot
@MassDara
Dec 8, 2024
There are many rumors that Russia is evacuating its bases at Tartus and Khmeimim in Syria, but most assets remain there. If evacuation happens, it will be obvious. A brief thread on what is happening now and what future moves would look like. 🧵
908K