Research

Measurements NegativeEV has run on real betting markets, graded against what actually happened. One page per finding, with its sample, its window, and its method.

Each page records one measurement: what was graded, how many of them, over what window, at which price, and what came out. The explainer pages under https://negativeev.com/about answer the question a bettor is asking; these pages are the record the explainers cite.

Every figure is graded against real outcomes - real final scores, real box scores, real match results - not against the simulator. A number that did not clear its own noise floor is either left out or named as such on the page.

New to a market? The explainers cover favorites versus underdogs, picking a winner at a price, betting the over, measured, the worst-priced common bet and the prop board, market by market.

Findings, newest first

• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 30: Schwarber to homer at +233 (measured 2026-08-30): Five thousand simulations had Schwarber homering 27.5% of the time. Against +233 that grades Negative EV at about -9%, and it becomes a play at +264 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-30-schwarber
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 29: Schwarber to homer at +180 (measured 2026-08-29): Five thousand simulations had Schwarber homering 24.8% of the time. Against +180 that grades Negative EV at about -31%, and it becomes a play at +303 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-29-schwarber
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 28: Olson to homer at +255 (measured 2026-08-28): Five thousand simulations had Olson homering 29.3% of the time. Against +255 that grades Roughly Fair, and it becomes a play at +241 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-28-olson
• ATP: ATP match odds, graded against 19 seasons of results (measured 2026-08-27): Every price tier came in under what it implied. Sides at 5.00 or longer were priced at 13.5% and won 10.5%, about -26% per bet. https://negativeev.com/research/atp-match-odds
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 27: Alvarez to homer at +230 (measured 2026-08-27): Five thousand simulations had Alvarez homering 20.5% of the time. Against +230 that grades Negative EV at about -32%, and it becomes a play at +388 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-27-alvarez
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 26: Schwarber to homer at +240 (measured 2026-08-26): Five thousand simulations had Schwarber homering 32.9% of the time. Against +240 that grades Positive EV at about +12%, and it stays a play down to +204. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-26-schwarber
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 25: Ohtani to homer at +210 (measured 2026-08-25): Five thousand simulations had Ohtani homering 32.6% of the time. Against +210 that grades Roughly Fair, and it becomes a play at +207 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-25-ohtani
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 24: Buxton to homer at +200 (measured 2026-08-24): Five thousand simulations had Buxton homering 29.5% of the time. Against +200 that grades Negative EV at about -12%, and it becomes a play at +239 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-24-buxton
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 23: Ohtani to homer at +210 (measured 2026-08-23): Five thousand simulations had Ohtani homering 25.8% of the time. Against +210 that grades Negative EV at about -20%, and it becomes a play at +288 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-23-ohtani
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 22: Ohtani to homer at +240 (measured 2026-08-22): Five thousand simulations had Ohtani homering 24.6% of the time. Against +240 that grades Negative EV at about -16%, and it becomes a play at +306 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-22-ohtani
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 21: Ohtani to homer at +215 (measured 2026-08-21): Five thousand simulations had Ohtani homering 26.3% of the time. Against +215 that grades Negative EV at about -17%, and it becomes a play at +280 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-21-ohtani
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 20: Alvarez to homer at +220 (measured 2026-08-20): Five thousand simulations had Alvarez homering 22.0% of the time. Against +220 that grades Negative EV at about -30%, and it becomes a play at +354 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-20-alvarez
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 19: Schwarber to homer at +215 (measured 2026-08-19): Five thousand simulations had Schwarber homering 27.6% of the time. Against +215 that grades Negative EV at about -13%, and it becomes a play at +263 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-19-schwarber
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 18: Ohtani to homer at +200 (measured 2026-08-18): Five thousand simulations had Ohtani homering 39.0% of the time. Against +200 that grades Positive EV at about +17%, and it stays a play down to +157. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-18-ohtani
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 17: Ohtani to homer at +180 (measured 2026-08-17): Five thousand simulations had Ohtani homering 38.9% of the time. Against +180 that grades Positive EV at about +9%, and it stays a play down to +157. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-17-ohtani
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 16: Alvarez to homer at +250 (measured 2026-08-16): Five thousand simulations had Alvarez homering 28.6% of the time. Against +250 that grades Roughly Fair, and it becomes a play at +249 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-16-alvarez
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 15: Alvarez to homer at +230 (measured 2026-08-15): Five thousand simulations had Alvarez homering 28.0% of the time. Against +230 that grades Negative EV at about -8%, and it becomes a play at +257 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-15-alvarez
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 14: Caglianone to homer at +213 (measured 2026-08-14): Five thousand simulations had Caglianone homering 18.5% of the time. Against +213 that grades Negative EV at about -42%, and it becomes a play at +441 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-14-caglianone
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 13: Schwarber to homer at +238 (measured 2026-08-13): Five thousand simulations had Schwarber homering 26.4% of the time. Against +238 that grades Negative EV at about -11%, and it becomes a play at +279 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-13-schwarber
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 12: Murakami to homer at +270 (measured 2026-08-12): Five thousand simulations had Murakami homering 19.3% of the time. Against +270 that grades Negative EV at about -28%, and it becomes a play at +417 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-12-murakami
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 11: Shohei Ohtani to homer at +219 (measured 2026-08-11): Five thousand simulations had Ohtani homering 25.6% of the time. Against +219 that grades Negative EV at about -18%, and it becomes a play at +291 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-11-ohtani
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 10: Shohei Ohtani to homer at +225 (measured 2026-08-10): Five thousand simulations had Ohtani homering 24.7% of the time. Against +225 that grades Negative EV at about -20%, and it becomes a play at +305 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-10-ohtani
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, August 9: Matt Olson to homer at +263 (measured 2026-08-09): Five thousand simulations had Olson homering 20.5% of the time. Against +263 that grades Negative EV at about -26%, and it becomes a play at +388 or longer. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-09-olson
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, 8 August 2026: Kyle Schwarber to homer (measured 2026-08-08): Five thousand simulations had Schwarber homering 27.1% of the time. Against +231 that grades Negative EV at -10%, and the price reaches break-even at +269. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-08-schwarber
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, 7 August 2026: Shohei Ohtani to homer (measured 2026-08-07): Five thousand simulations had Ohtani homering 31.5 out of 100. Against +276 that grades Positive EV at +19%, and the price stops being a play at +217 or shorter. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-07-ohtani
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, 6 August 2026: Kyle Schwarber to homer (measured 2026-08-06): Five thousand simulations had Schwarber homering 32 times in 100. Against the +190 middle of the board that grades Negative EV at -6.1%, and the price reaches break-even at +209. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-06-schwarber
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, 5 August 2026: Kyle Schwarber at +175 (measured 2026-08-05): The board priced Schwarber to homer at 36.4%. Five thousand simulations of the game said 31.6%, and the break-even price was +217. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-05-schwarber
• MLB: Chalk of the Day, 4 August 2026: Kyle Schwarber at +150 (measured 2026-08-04): The board priced Schwarber to homer at 40%. Five thousand simulations of the game said 27.7%, and the break-even price was +261. https://negativeev.com/research/chalk-2026-08-04-schwarber
• MLB: How much of a sportsbook board is Negative EV? (measured 2026-07-21): 55.5% of the board graded Negative EV and 75.7% had no edge either way. The longshot end was worst, at 71.0% negative. https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-board-census
• MLB: What the best price is worth on an MLB board (measured 2026-08-02): across six mainstream retail books the best moneyline price beat a typical one by about 1.5% of stake, and a better-than-typical price existed on 95.9% of sides. https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-line-shopping
• MLB: Pitcher strikeout props, both sides (measured 2026-08-02): on 2,061 props the over side returned about -4.5% per bet, outside its noise floor for the first time. The ordering between lines is still not settled. https://negativeev.com/research/pitcher-strikeout-props
• MLB: MLB totals, over vs under (measured 2026-08-02): across 1,067 games the overs returned about -4.4% per bet and the unders about -0.7%, both inside their noise floor. Overs still grade worse; the size is not measured. https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-totals
• MLB: MLB run lines (measured 2026-08-02): the home -1.5 side returned about +3.8% per bet and the road +1.5 side about -5.4%. On 753 games both sit inside their noise floor, and this is the third window to order the sides differently. https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-run-lines
• MLB: MLB moneylines (measured 2026-08-02): both sides together returned about -1.8% per bet, favorites at -0.8% and underdogs at -3.1%. All three point estimates sit inside their noise floor; the direction is the finding. https://negativeev.com/research/mlb-moneylines
• MLB: Anytime home run props (measured 2026-08-02): 18,468 props graded against real outcomes returned -23.1% per bet, against -5.1% on hits props over the same window - both outside their noise floor. The strikeout over row in the same pass is -4.5% on 2,061 props. https://negativeev.com/research/anytime-home-run-props
• MLB: Batter total bases, both sides (measured 2026-08-01): overs realized about -6.9% and unders about -3.5% at the best price on each side. The first market measured with no near-fair side. https://negativeev.com/research/batter-total-bases

These are market averages. The one bet in front of a reader is priced on its own game: paste it at https://negativeev.com/ and see the simulated win probability and its EV. 10 free checks a day, unlimited signed in.