Curve into the target
I’m pretty bad at bowling and frisbee.
I roll the ball or throw the disc straight at the target, but away it curves.
After this happens a couple times, I adjust. I stop aiming straight, since that’s not working. If it always curves to the left, I aim to the right.
It feels wrong to aim away from the target. But it curves back to the center. It works.
Same with thoughts. I try to think straight. But sometimes my thoughts miss.
I would under-estimate how long a project would take. So now I double my estimate - (aim to the right) - which brings it closer to the truth. It feels wrong, because I really do think it will take a month, but out loud I say “two months”. Now my estimates hit the target.
I tend to believe my memories are correct. But I learned from experience that they’re fabricated. So now I try to assume that all my memories are false.
Aiming your thinking away from the target feels wrong but makes it right.
Another definition of the word “true” means straight and accurate. And the word “bias” means angled or curved. So we can choose beliefs that are not true, because they are useful to compensate for our bias.
Beautiful post!
I tend to want to believe that everything will work in my favour, so I assume that nothing will and proceed accordingly.
Love this reframe. Reminds me of:
"Skate to where the puck is GOING TO BE."
You can be "right", or you can hit the target. What's your goal?
I think that's why there is sometimes (but not always) wisdom in crowds.
We all have our own internal biases, and when you take the average, those biases can offset each other.
That sounds like an expectation management. It works for me
My 'aim' to tackling any project has included a large planning and organizing phase during which I usually get bogged down and start chasing after other ideas.
I'm imagining that aiming away against the direction of my curve would be to plan less and just do more.
I think that's good insight and certain fibres of my being want to rail against it, but my pattern indicates that trying to outline as deeply as I do ends up sending me down a path of setting up scaffolding and moving on to the next structure, leaving my walls and roof and insulation unfinished.
Well if these are the kinds of posts that will be in the upcoming book then sign me up. I never thought about bias this way, and I kept thinking of it as something to try to notice/eliminate/avoid/compensate for, but when put in this frame, it's kind of just a tool. Adjust thoughts closer to reality so that they end up getting you more accurate results over time.
An awesome facet of the broader idea of "useful, not true". I can't wait for more because I'm also fascinated by it. Cheers!
Excellent and thought provoking. Reminds me of what I saw stenciled in all caps in white paint over the anti-aircraft guns while on a tour of the battleship USS Alabama: LEAD, DAMMIT, LEAD.
Even an arrow, straight and true, paints an arc, not a line.
Fascinating and useful!
This reminds me of that rule in trading on the financial markets - the ultimate goal of it of course is to make net profits, but if you focus too much on the profits you might end up with net losses - the saying goes like this:
"If you take care of your losses, the profits will take care of themselves."
Works for me. - Risk-management is what makes or breaks it. Profits are a consequence of good risk-management. As a beginner I had it wrong. A few years into it, I now know what to focus on, and the net results proof me right.
Derek, I've followed your writing since you started sharing your thoughts with the public and . . . I like the way you think! :-)
Continue! Please.
Brilliant idea! It's very close to me. I think that some things cannot be achieved at all if we aim straight for them. Happiness is a good example. Or success, if that's the only thing we're after, it can rarely be satisfying, but when we focus on our service instead, success can come unexpectedly as a bonus or side effect.
Ohh I think I see where you're going with your next book... I love the idea. Beautifully illustrated with a simple metaphor.
ANONYMOUS PLEASE - do what you want this this. DO NOT CREDIT ME.
This is like windage with long long marksmanship. I was in the "girl scouts".
CORIOLIS AND EOTVOS
When a Marine or SOF long-range marksman is in the northern hemisphere on Earrth, the bullet is deflected to the right (depending on if you are shooting N to South or East to West). In the southern hemisphere, the bullet is deflected to the left - all because the Earth is spherical and rotating. So as you said you have to curve into target.
Coriolis is small. The deflection at 1000 yds with the muzzle velocity of the projectile, given X ammo, 820 m/s and at 45° North, and will be about 8 cm or 3 inches, given all else is good the farther from the farther the shooter from the equator, the higher the amount of deflection. Does not sound key, but imagine you are on a deep sniper team... two of you... small arms only -- and you run into heavy armor. Tanks or APCs... key target is not just the man standing in the hatch, but the antenne on the last vehicle. Hit that antenne and they can no longer communicate. At solid distance they do not even hear the miss. You are on the LAST guy. No one sees the miss because no one is behind him. Take his antenne. Then drop the man in the hatch. Then move up to the NEXT vehicle. Take THAT antenne, then take the leader. Then work your way up. Could be a good day and keep big iron off your boys without breaking squawk or having to bring in Air or anything. Hopefully without breaking cover.
Also, gravity BUT ALSO with Earth Spin. The Eötvös effect is because you are not shooting a laser -- sparklers for guiding in air cover missiles have none.
6 miles and dead on. But with a bullet, it will not go straight forever. It drops. Drop is greater for bullets fired to the West than ones shot to the East so this gets pronounced with large calibers, .338 and 50 -- because ranges can be 2,000 yards and even more.
Painfully true, but once embraced makes life easier! Thank you, Derek!
Enjoyed. Thank you. Here’s a curve you might like. Aim for Venus to get to Mars. ~Best Wishes, Ricardo
www.theguardian.com/science/2022/sep/25/target-venus-not-mars-for-first-crewed-mission-to-another-planet-experts-say
I bowled from ages 4 to 24, and when you grow up doing something, it sticks with you. I also don't throw a curve ball, because they are very challenging to control, I instead throw a hook ball, which has a (mostly) straight trajectory for the first 2/3rds of the lane, and then starts to curve for that final third, bringing the ball into the 1-2 pocket and increasing my chances for a strike.
To do this, I use a ball with a resin shell and a fingertip grip--my fingers only go in to the first knuckle, and because when the ball is released it rotates around the thumb, with my fingers further out, I get more rotation.
I say all of this, because I apply the analogy in a different way: small changes up front can lead to a big difference in outcome at the end.
In software development, that means I look for technologies and techniques which allow me to iterate quickly--because if I can iterate quickly, I can make more changes faster, and deliver a working product that much quicker.
brilliant
Shanker Vedantam has written a book about all these useful illusions. A good read :)
Is that kind of like setting your clock 10 minutes ahead to make sure you're out the door on time in the morning?
Yes! Fun example! — Derek
I came here to say that you might enjoy the book, "Useful Delusions: The Power and Paradox of the Self-Deceiving Brain" by Shankar Vedantam, but I see that another commenter mentioned the same thing. So +1 for that!
Nicely written
Why does it feel wrong?
I gave up on the myth that says setting better goals gives me better results. It can help, to be sure, but. I’ve found that the unexpected turns and obstacles bring the best innovations.
I have my True North, but I’ve learned that all the fun in life comes in the detours and course corrections.
At what point does the new target become the pin on the right instead of the center pin?
Only 10 mins into your website but it’s really resonated so far. Constantly question yourself, choose the beliefs that suit current “next step”, but don’t treat it as gospel forever. One quote that really stood out to me that your work reminded me of “there is only one absolute truth; there are no absolutes” in paraphrasing but appreciate you sharing and being willing to be very different. Absolutely love it
Hi Derek,
When I was 16 I got to go on my uncle Ralph's huge cabin cruiser for a fishing trip on the Sacramento river. When it was time to go back to the marina he gave me the wheel and pointed to a place along the shore about a mile away and said head that way. He went below and I took dead aim at the spot he pointed to. The water was choppy and the boat kept hitting the waves hard. He came out of the cabin fast and stopped me. He said look at the waves and angle between them making a wide curve to the marina. This is not a lane on a highway. The lines move and you should too, or you'll sink us.
"I tend to believe my memories are correct. But I learned from experience that they’re fabricated. So now I try to assume that all my memories are false."
Yes! I do this all the time, but when I give it as advice, I get funny looks.
The other variable is speed
Fast and it will stay straight.
Too slow and it will bank right.
"But I learned from experience that they’re fabricated."
... that is the scary bit, and is your name, Rachel? :))))))
Time spent with one's parents - and the difference in my 'perception' of Dad against my sisters is a scary one.
And 'budget' on say two months - but try for one month, so as to have more polishing time... as well as less agro from 'bosses', etc., in six weeks time.
Bias... don't forget the other meaning - useful in this context too - of the bias in a fabric, so easily wearable in one direction, but not in the other, and shows when in say skirts 'against' the bias of how the fabric works...
Hi there Derek,
I like these “true” and “false” types of articles. They keep sharpening my view on things. One thing though… these types of (short) articles, even though they are food for thought for the mature person, they can be confusing for the immature.
But, I suppose in you book (where the article is taken from) you explain things more thoroughly.
Very interesting. Thanks for sharing.
R.R.
This reminds me of what Christopher Wallis describes as vikalpa and assuddha vikalpa.
Stories about yourself and anti-stories, to dislodge/make more flexible your learned ego.
Like using a rose thorn to take out another rose thorn stuck in your finger.
let's just aim, without disregard if it is right or wrong – maybe we hit it, or maybe we don't.
who cares?
Please keep it up! I'm looing forward to a complete book.
This reminds me of Buckminster Fullers concept called ‘Precession’, where the true purpose is found at 90 degrees to what appeared to be the target.
Succinct. Logical. Grounded. I appreciate your perspective. This topic is one I approach with so much emotional heaviness and confusion. It's so refreshing to reframe it in this way. Thank you.
Wow, already can't wait to read the book. This seems like such a simple idea but most of us couldn't be more blinded by it simply because it feels wrong. Looking forward to it.
Love this!
Two of my own observations.
1) I often failed using intellect alone to do things. The more I used it to get like ~2/3 of the way, and then something more like a blind man feeling his way forward, the better I did.
I get the impression that Feel taps into what's in our blind-spot.
2)In stock trading, it becomes really apparent that the brain loves to think in straight lines; and that the market absolutely does not move that way.
Even though nobody knows the next 1,000 points (hat-tip: Peter Lynch), the guys who've studied the most have better guesses about levels, directions, and waves.
Can't wait for the rest of the book!
re: CHOOSE IDEAS NOT IDEOLOGIES
"Contradictions inherent in ideological theories are never a serious embarrassment to them, because ideologies are not aimed at deepening cognition, but at determining the will."
-- Hans Kelsen (p. 286 of his book 'Pure Theory of Law')
Dear Derek!
Great to hear your stimulating thoughts, truth covered in mud in these times.
Derek!! Truth can be proven! Faith precedes it. Faith in falsehood is theory, unproven. Faith in truth proves itself through time.
Truth, like said before, needs no defense, just a listening heart.
So much love to You Derek!!
Rachel
Ps, I paint, would love to have applied for animator, but just an artist 🤗❤🤸♀️👋
Yep, that's me, too. Hanging to the left. I think you just demonstrated why I repeat certain choices, even though it does not look like the same choice at first. The scene looks different, smells different, but circumstances repeat. Each time I understand myself better. The only thing I can adjust is me after all. I am forever re-triangulating my position in life. Good writing, Derek. Thanks.
this is making me skeptical and challenging my thoughts. I like it, It is a different perspective.
This is your toughest idea yet. I read 3 of your books. For this book, this one and the other articles are so slippery that they let me question my train of thoughts while reading. Making huge decisions is like this -- makes you shred and suffer deep inside. (What was the spark that ignites such a thought...) I'll bank the curiosity. Just chuckling/thinking.
Lo brillante de este texto es que no solo identifica los sesgos, sino que propone una estrategia contraintuitiva: abrazar conscientemente nuestras creencias falsas como herramientas de compensación. Es como pedirle a la sección de vientos que toque desafinada para que la sinfonía completa suene armoniosa. Gracias Sivers