Jump to:
- What is climate change adaptation?
- What is a Climate Change Risk and Opportunities Assessment?
- What is the Island’s climate like now?
- How will the climate change on the Isle of Man?
- How much will the world warm?
- What does this mean for us?
- How the risks were evaluated and outcomes
- What are the opportunities for the Isle of Man?
- What is the Isle of Man Government doing?
- What can you, as an individual do?
‘Adaptation and Resilience’ is a key supporting pillar of the Climate Change Plan 2022-27 to deliver the changes needed to protect our communities, businesses and our way of life from the impacts of climate change.
As an island we are vulnerable to impacts on our supply chains and from flooding, coastal overtopping and increasing severe weather events. Through early assessment and action and aligning with best practice from across the British Isles and Europe, we will be more resilient to the increasing risks and minimise future costs.
What is climate change adaptation?
Adaptation actions are those taken to become more resilient to the changing climate by anticipating the adverse effects of climate change and taking appropriate action to reducing the risk from its impacts (e.g. sea level rise, heatwaves, flooding, drought etc).
Climate resilience essentially means making sure people, places, and systems can survive, recover, adapt, and thrive as our climate changes.
Adaptation works together with climate mitigation (reducing our output of warming greenhouse gases) to reduce climate risks. The first step in the process of adaptation is identifying risks in order to effectively address them.
What is a Climate Change Risk and Opportunities Assessment (‘CCROA’)?
The National Climate Risk and Opportunities Assessment is the Island's first nationally comprehensive look at how climate change could affect the systems we rely on – like health, infrastructure, the economy and the environment.
The Isle of Man Government engaged specialists RSK Group to produce an independent technical report providing the evidence base in the form of a climate change risk and opportunity assessment to inform an Adaptation Strategy. It was guided by local and expert knowledge ensuring outcomes support high-quality decisions relevant to the Isle of Man.
A CCROA is a way of identifying the climate change impacts on a region or organisation, understanding the risks they present, and prioritising those risks to enable effective adaptation action.
The risk assessment looked at scenarios of how the Isle of Man’s climate could change by 2050 and 2080 if the world warms by 2°C or 4°C, with the latter becoming increasingly more likely.
What is the Island’s climate like now?
Currently, the Isle of Man has a temperate and oceanic climate with relatively mild winters and cool summers. Temperatures are generally highest in August (average monthly maximum of 18.15°C) and lowest in February (average monthly minimum of 3.88°C).
We get approximately 883mm of rainfall per year. Rainfall is experienced across the seasons and the year (but is greater in the winter), however, we get more in our central hilly areas.
The Isle of Man is already experiencing increases in average temperatures, shifts in the seasons, fewer frost days (-54%) and more frequent intense extreme weather events.
Table: Observed yearly averages from the Ronaldsway Met Office, for core climate variables for four thirty-year periods from 1961 to 2020.
How will the climate change on the Isle of Man?
Cutting-edge climate science used in the assessment revealed that the Isle of Man will experience gradual changes in average temperature (by up to 3.2°C), with hotter drier summers (up to 4.5°C) and warmer wetter winters (up to 3.2°C), as a result of climate change.
The Island will face challenges similar to other island and coastal communities in the British Isles, such as rising sea levels (up to 0.68m), shifting weather patterns, increased rainfall (up to 48% more in winter) and an increased occurrence of extreme weather events impacting human health, transportation and the environment.
The average annual temperature of the Isle of Man is projected to increase under both 2°C and 4°C of global warming. Under the 4°C pathway temperatures continue to rise beyond 2050 to up to 3.2°C by 2080.
Summers are expected to become hotter and drier as the global climate warms. This increases likelihood of drought and heightens the risk of wildfires.
Average projection
- Summer temperature:
+1.3°C by 2050 (at 2°C)
+2.4°C by 2080 (at 4°C) - Summer rainfall:
-9% by 2050 (at 2°C)
-17% by 2080 (at 4°C)
Highest projection
- Summer temperature:
+2.4°C by 2050 (at 2°C)
+4.5°C by 2080 (at 4°C) - Summer rainfall:
-29% by 2050 (at 2°C)
-41% by 2080 (at 4°C)
Winters are expected to become warmer and wetter as the global climate warms. This increases likelihood of flooding and damage to our built environment as well as harvesting crops and disrupting planting seasons.
- Winter temperature:
+0.7°C by 2050 (at 2°C)
+1.6°C by 2080 (at 4°C) - Winter rainfall:
+11% by 2050 (at 2°C)
+21% by 2080 (at 4°C)
Highest projection
- Winter temperature:
+1.9°C by 2050 (at 2°C)
+3.2°C by 2080 (at 4°C) - Winter rainfall:
+30% by 2050 (at 2°C)
+48% by 2080 (at 4°C)
By 2080 we could see sea levels rise by +0.44 metres to +0.68 metres at the higher projection. This will put the Island at increased risk of coastal flooding and erosion.
How Much will the world Warm?
Even if global action to reduce emissions is successful and global warming is limited to 2°C or below by 2100, the Isle of Man along with the rest of the world is still expected to experience significant changes to its climate. Many residents have already experienced first-hand more unpredictable weather and changing seasons at current levels of warming.
The Paris Agreement commits us, the UK and other world governments to reduce emissions to limit global average temperatures to 1.5°C (compared to pre-industrial levels).
Efforts now and in the coming years will determine how much the world warms. Without decisive action globally, warming levels could go beyond 2°C and reach 4°C by the end of the century, intensifying risks.
The worse climate change becomes the greater the impact on our human and natural systems will be, therefore making it harder to mitigate, recover and adapt to changes.
What does this mean for us?
As these climate impacts intensify this will have impacts on aspects of Island life.
The CCROA identified 119 risks and 14 opportunities for the Isle of Man across five sectors; economy, health and communities, infrastructure, international dimensions, and natural environment.
Businesses and industries on the Island are at risk from flooding, storms, and coastal erosion. These events can damage buildings, disrupt operations, and increase costs. Key parts of our economy may suffer from unpredictable weather and environmental changes, making it harder to maintain productivity and income, and there is also risks to businesses and individuals on accessing insurance.
People, homes, and communities on the Isle of Man face growing risks from flooding caused by heavy rainfall, rising sea levels, and coastal erosion. These events can damage buildings, disrupt daily life, and threaten livelihoods and our food security. Warmer temperatures may also lead to more pests and disease, which could affect public health and the natural balance of our environment including water quality.
Our roads, transport systems, and energy networks, including power stations and electricity supply lines are increasingly exposed to flooding, storms, and coastal erosion. These risks could lead to power outages, transport disruptions, and costly repairs. Planning ahead is essential to protect these vital services.
As climate change affects countries around the world, the Isle of Man may face indirect impacts such as changes in trade, supply chains, and migration. Rising global temperatures and sea levels could also influence international energy networks and partnerships that the Island relies on.
Our wildlife, forests, rivers, and farmland are increasingly vulnerable to extreme weather like droughts, wildfires, and floods. These changes can harm animals and plants, reduce the land’s ability to store carbon, and make it harder to grow food. Farmers may struggle with new pests and diseases, and the fishing industry could be affected by warmer seas and ocean changes that reduce fish stocks.
How were the risks evaluated?
A risk score was obtained for each of the impacts, which was then assigned a risk rating based on a five-point scale by multiplying the magnitude of potential consequences by the likelihood of the risk occurring.
8 stakeholder workshops were held with over 50 on-Island experts to better understand each risk in more detail and score.
The risk scores were assigned for each impact for the present day and the three climate scenarios being considered (2050s under 2°C, 2080s under 2°C and 2080s under 4°C).
Urgency scores were then applied to each of the 119 risks to indicate the need for adaptation action in two, five, and 10-year intervals, as well as beyond 10 years.
What were the outcomes?
Of the risks, 74 are expected to have a severe or major impact (under 4°C warming by 2080 scenario). A gap analysis found, for these severe and major risks, 62 gaps in current government action of which 54 required actions within two years.
21 of the identified risks need urgent additional action, either over and above what is already happening, or in some cases adaptation needs to start where there is currently nothing happening.
What are the opportunities for the Isle of Man?
There are 14 recognised opportunities for the Isle of Man from climate change, these are;
- Tourism opportunities from hotter drier summers and milder winters
- Opportunities for businesses as demand changes for goods and services
- More opportunities for insurance companies to capitalise on premiums for high risk areas
- Improved health and wellbeing from higher temperatures
- Less heating costs due to hotter summers and milder winters
- Agricultural opportunities both export and domestic from longer growing season, warmer weather etc.
- More migrant workers as displacement increases globally
- New species introduced to the Island, including new fish breeds and new wildlife
- Increased coastal species and habitats due to sea level rise
- Opportunities for increased tree growth leading to forestry productivity and sequestration
- Quality of life improvements from greater interaction between people and the natural environment
What is the Isle of Man Government doing?
The evidence base provided by the CCROA will be used to develop the Isle of Man’s first climate Adaptation Strategy, taking all areas of society into account and prioritising identified risks. It will be developed over the next two years and aims to ensure the economy, people, homes, businesses, and current and future infrastructure are resilient to changing conditions.
Whilst the strategy is being developed, we will continue to:
• Keep improving flood protection by building barriers and clearing drains to reduce flooding risks.
• Strengthen important buildings, roads, and services to withstand storms and floods, ensuring emergency teams are ready.
• Review and update laws and policies to include climate risks and adaptation in all decision-making.
• Protect heritage sites, such as old buildings and coastlines, especially those vulnerable to flooding and erosion.
• Help businesses prepare for climate risks so they can operate during bad weather, like farms protecting crops or shops having backup power.
• Support projects that restore nature, such as planting trees and rebuilding wildlife habitats.
• Promote peatland restoration and wildfire prevention with local community involvement.
The Isle of Man Government recognises its responsibility in this global issue.
By preparing now, we can help keep the Island safe, healthy, and a great place to live — for us and future generations. Early action can also help avoid escalating costs and problems later on.
The Government will work with communities, businesses, and stakeholder groups across the Island to develop this strategy, to be released in coordination with the next five-year Climate Change Plan in 2027. All government departments will strive to include adaptation in their
work.
