Inspiration
How can we forecast Équinoxe’s 2026 rent increase without being misled by changes in portfolio composition, concessions, or tenant turnover?
What it does
Equinoxing analyzes historical lease data to measure true same-unit rent growth, account for concessions, distinguish renewals from turnovers, and forecast Équinoxe’s 2026 rent increase.
How we built it
We combined four Yardi data sources, matched consecutive leases by unit, analyzed contractual vs. effective rent, separated renewals and turnovers, incorporated external market indicators, and backtested our forecasting methodology on 2023–2025 data.
Challenges we ran into
The biggest challenge was separating genuine rent growth from portfolio mix effects and ensuring that leases were correctly matched to the same physical unit. Concessions and different renewal/turnover behaviors added another layer of complexity.
Accomplishments that we're proud of
We built a transparent, data-driven forecasting pipeline that goes beyond a simple average—while validating our methodology against historical years and external market indicators.
What we learned
A simple portfolio-wide rent average can be misleading. The definition of “rent increase” matters, and understanding the underlying data is just as important as the forecasting model itself.
What's next for Equinoxing
Extend the model with property-level forecasting, richer market indicators, automated confidence intervals, and continuous updates as new lease data becomes available.
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