by Calculated Risk on 1/12/2026 08:21:00 AM

I've been thinking about this for some time.

After 21 years of writing this blog almost daily, I've decided to stop writing the daily updates on the blog.

However, the economic data "IV" is still in my arm, and I'll be writing a weekly economic summary at the end of each week (via a newsletter - see below). This will have three parts: the Schedule of economic data for the following week, a Review of data for the previous week, and a Commentary on a current topic. 

And I'll be writing the Real Estate Newsletter usually 4 to 6 times per week (this remains my main focus).

Thanks for reading the blog all these years! I hope it has been useful and informative.

Thanks to all the people who have helped me over the years.  And a special thanks to my friend Tanta; I miss her dearly.   Best to all.

The weekly update will be here:
and the Real Estate Newsletter (published 4 to 6 times per week) is here:

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2026 07:50:00 PM

Weekend:
• Schedule for Week of January 11, 2026

Monday:
• No major economic releases scheduled.

From CNBC: Pre-Market Data and Bloomberg futures S&P 500 futures are down 16 and DOW futures are down 104 (fair value).

Oil prices were up over the last week with WTI futures at $59.37 per barrel and Brent at $63.60 per barrel. A year ago, WTI was at $77, and Brent was at $80 - so WTI oil prices are down about 24% year-over-year.

Here is a graph from Gasbuddy.com for nationwide gasoline prices. Nationally prices are at $2.74 per gallon. A year ago, prices were at $3.03 per gallon, so gasoline prices are down $0.29 year-over-year.

by Calculated Risk on 1/11/2026 08:12:00 AM

Hotel occupancy was weak in 2025.   It is difficult to tell early in the year because travel is always weak in early January. 

From STR: U.S. hotel results for week ending 3 January

The U.S. hotel industry reported positive year-over-year comparisons, according to CoStar’s latest data through 3 January. ...

28 December 2025 through 3 January 2026 (percentage change from comparable week in 2024 and 2025):

• Occupancy: 50.5% (+4.4%)
• Average daily rate (ADR): US$175.47 (+3.4%)
• Revenue per available room (RevPAR): US$88.65 (+7.9%)
emphasis added

The following graph shows the seasonal pattern for the hotel occupancy rate using the four-week average.

Click on graph for larger image.

The red line is for 2026, blue is the median, and dashed light blue is for 2025.  Dashed black is for 2018, the record year for hotel occupancy. 

It is difficult to judge performance early in the year.

Note: Y-axis doesn't start at zero to better show the seasonal change.

The 4-week average will increase seasonally for the next few months.

 

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2026 02:11:00 PM

At the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter this week:

Click on graph for larger image.

• Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

• The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

• 1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December

• Asking Rents Decline Year-over-year

• Update: The Housing Bubble and Mortgage Debt as a Percent of GDP

This is usually published 4 to 6 times a week and provides more in-depth analysis of the housing market.

by Calculated Risk on 1/10/2026 08:11:00 AM

The key reports this week are December CPI, Existing Home Sales and November Retail Sales. Also, New Home Sales for September and October will be released.

For manufacturing, the December Industrial Production report and the January New York and Philly Fed manufacturing surveys will be released.

----- Monday, January 12th -----
No major economic releases scheduled.

----- Tuesday, January 13th -----
6:00 AM: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for December.

8:30 AM: The Consumer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for 0.3% increase in CPI, and a 0.3% increase in core CPI.  The consensus is for CPI to be up 2.7% year-over-year and core CPI to be up 2.7% YoY.

10:00 AM: New Home Sales for September and October from the Census Bureau.

This graph shows New Home Sales since 1963 through August 2025.

The dashed line is the sales rate for August.

The consensus is for 714 thousand SAAR for October.

----- Wednesday, January 14th -----
7:00 AM ET: The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) will release the results for the mortgage purchase applications index. This will be two weeks of data.

8:30 AM ET: The Producer Price Index for December from the BLS. The consensus is for a 0.3% increase in PPI, and a 0.2% increase in core PPI.

8:30 AM: Retail sales for November is scheduled to be released.  

The consensus is for a 0.4% increase in retail sales.

This graph shows retail sales since 1992. 

This is monthly retail sales and food service, seasonally adjusted (total and ex-gasoline).

December retail sales for December have not been scheduled yet.

10:00 AM: Existing Home Sales for December from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). The consensus is for 4.23 million SAAR, up from 4.13 million.

The graph shows existing home sales from 1994 through the report last month.

2:00 PM: the Federal Reserve Beige Book, an informal review by the Federal Reserve Banks of current economic conditions in their Districts.

----- Thursday, January 15th -----
8:30 AM: The initial weekly unemployment claims report will be released.  The consensus is for 208K, unchanged from 208K.

8:30 AM: The New York Fed Empire State manufacturing survey for January. The consensus is for a reading of 1.0, down from -3.9.

8:30 AM: the Philly Fed manufacturing survey for January.  The consensus is for a reading of -5.0, up from -10.2.
----- Friday, January 16th -----
9:15 AM: The Fed will release Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization for December.

This graph shows industrial production since 1967.

The consensus is for a 0.2% increase in Industrial Production, and for Capacity Utilization to be unchanged at 76.0%.

10:00 AM: The January NAHB homebuilder survey. 

The consensus is for a reading of 40, up from 39 the previous month. Any number below 50 indicates that more builders view sales conditions as poor than good.

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2026 02:15:00 PM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: The "Home ATM" Mostly Closed in Q3

A brief excerpt:

During the housing bubble, many homeowners borrowed heavily against their perceived home equity - jokingly calling it the “Home ATM” - and this contributed to the subsequent housing bust, since so many homeowners had negative equity in their homes when house prices declined.
...
Here is the quarterly increase in mortgage debt from the Federal Reserve’s Financial Accounts of the United States - Z.1 (sometimes called the Flow of Funds report) released today. In the mid ‘00s, there was a large increase in mortgage debt associated with the housing bubble.

In Q3 2025, mortgage debt increased $108 billion, unchanged from $108 billion in Q2. Note the almost 7 years of declining mortgage debt as distressed sales (foreclosures and short sales) wiped out a significant amount of debt.

However, some of this debt is being used to increase the housing stock (purchase new homes), so this isn’t all Mortgage Equity Withdrawal (MEW).

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2026 01:12:00 PM

The Federal Reserve released the Q3 2025 Flow of Funds report today: Financial Accounts of the United States.

The net worth of households and nonprofits rose to $181.6 trillion during the third quarter of 2025. The value of directly and indirectly held corporate equities increased $5.5 trillion and the value of real estate decreased $0.3 trillion.
...
Household debt increased 4.1 percent at an annual rate in the third quarter of 2025. Consumer credit grew at an annual rate of 2.3 percent, while mortgage debt (excluding charge-offs) grew at an annual rate of 3.2 percent.

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows Households and Nonprofit net worth as a percent of GDP.  

Net worth increased $6.1 trillion in Q3.  As a percent of GDP, net worth increased in Q3 but is still below the peak in 2021.

This includes real estate and financial assets (stocks, bonds, pension reserves, deposits, etc.) net of liabilities (mostly mortgages). Note that this does NOT include public debt obligations.

The second graph shows homeowner percent equity since 1952.

Household percent equity (as measured by the Fed) collapsed when house prices fell sharply in 2007 and 2008.

In Q3 2025, household percent equity (of household real estate) was at 71.6% - down from 72.0% in Q2, 2025

Note: This includes households with no mortgage debt.

The third graph shows household real estate assets and mortgage debt as a percent of GDP.  

Mortgage debt increased by $108 billion in Q3.

Mortgage debt is up $2.99 trillion from the peak during the housing bubble, but, as a percent of GDP is at 43.9% - down from Q2 - and down from a peak of 73.1% of GDP during the housing bust.

The value of real estate, as a percent of GDP, decreased in Q3 and is below the recent peak in Q2 2022, but is well above the median of the last 30 years.

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2026 10:34:00 AM

Today, in the Calculated Risk Real Estate Newsletter: Housing Starts Decreased to 1.246 million Annual Rate in October

A brief excerpt:

Note: The Census Bureau is still catching up. They released Start data for September and October today, but we are still missing November data.
...
The third graph shows the month-to-month comparison for total starts between 2024 (blue) and 2025 (red).

Total starts were down 7.8% in October compared to October 2024.

Year-to-date (YTD) starts are down 0.7% compared to the same period in 2024. Single family starts are down 7.0% YTD and multi-family up 18.0% YTD.

There is much more in the article.

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2026 09:59:00 AM

From the Census Bureau: Permits, Starts and Completions

Housing Starts:
Privately-owned housing starts in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,246,000. This is 4.6 percent below the revised September estimate of 1,306,000 and is 7.8 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,352,000. Single-family housing starts in October were at a rate of 874,000; this is 5.4 percent above the revised September figure of 829,000. The October rate for units in buildings with five units or more was 347,000.

Building Permits:
Privately-owned housing units authorized by building permits in October were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,412,000. This is 0.2 percent below the revised September rate of 1,415,000 and is 1.1 percent below the October 2024 rate of 1,428,000. Single-family authorizations in October were at a rate of 876,000; this is 0.5 percent below the revised September figure of 880,000. Authorizations of units in buildings with five units or more were at a rate of 481,000 in October.
emphasis added

Click on graph for larger image.

The first graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 2000.

Multi-family starts (blue, 2+ units) decreased month-over-month in October.   Multi-family starts were down 7.9% year-over-year.

Single-family starts (red) increased in October and were down 7.8% year-over-year.

The second graph shows single and multi-family housing starts since 1968.

Total housing starts in October were well below expectations.   We are still missing data for November due to the government shutdown.

I'll have more later …

by Calculated Risk on 1/09/2026 09:20:00 AM

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000. The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%.

Earlier: December Employment Report: 50 thousand Jobs, 4.4% Unemployment Rate

Prime (25 to 54 Years Old) Participation

Since the overall participation rate is impacted by both cyclical (recession) and demographic (aging population, younger people staying in school) reasons, here is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.

The 25 to 54 years old participation rate was unchanged in December at 83.8%% from 83.8% in November.

The 25 to 54 employment population ratio increased to 80.7% from 80.6% the previous month.

Both are down slightly from the recent peaks, but still near the highest level this millennium.

Average Hourly Wages

The graph shows the nominal year-over-year change in "Average Hourly Earnings" for all private employees from the Current Employment Statistics (CES).  

There was a huge increase at the beginning of the pandemic as lower paid employees were let go, and then the pandemic related spike reversed a year later.

Wage growth has trended down after peaking at 5.9% YoY in March 2022 and was at 3.8% YoY in December, up from 3.6% YoY in November. 

Part Time for Economic Reasons

From the BLS report:

"The number of people employed part time for economic reasons, at 5.3 million, changed little in December but is up by 980,000 over the year. These individuals would have preferred full-time employment but were working part time because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs."

The number of persons working part time for economic reasons decreased in December to 5.34 million from 5.49 million in November.  This is well above the pre-pandemic levels and near the highest levels since mid-2021.

These workers are included in the alternate measure of labor underutilization (U-6) that decreased to 8.4% from 8.7% in November. This is down from the record high in April 2020 of 22.9% and up from the lowest level on record (seasonally adjusted) in December 2022 (6.6%). (This series started in 1994). This measure is well above the 7.0% level in February 2020 (pre-pandemic).

Unemployed over 26 Weeks

This graph shows the number of workers unemployed for 27 weeks or more.

According to the BLS, there are 1.95 million workers who have been unemployed for more than 26 weeks and still want a job, up from 1.91 million in November.

This is down from post-pandemic high of 4.171 million, and up from the recent low of 1.056 million.

This is above pre-pandemic levels.

Summary:

The headline jobs number in the December employment report was slightly below expectations, however October and November were revised down by 76,000.  The unemployment rate decreased to 4.4%.

This was another weak employment report.