| Judgment Day |
[Nov. 8th, 2016|07:20 am]
danalwyn
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Every cycle they tell you that this will be the most important election of your lifetime. They might have actually gotten it right this time.
Nobody really has a good idea of what's going to happen. Let's all hope for the best today. |
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| Deja vu |
[Nov. 6th, 2016|08:42 pm]
danalwyn
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Seriously, can the FBI just be done with this shit? I feel like I'm watching the election's worst moments eternally on rerun. Let's get back to the work of actually having an election here. |
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| Brexit! |
[Jun. 25th, 2016|09:08 am]
danalwyn
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So now the post-Brexit stuff is going down. It's still very murky and unclear and about the only thing I can see a consensus on is that Cameron is a terrible politician. I mean, really. This is the second referendum he's mismanaged, and he can't even keep his own party in check. They may deserve their just desserts. The rest of the UK probably doesn't.
Presuming that Brexit doesn't simply die in committee or get set on fire or spontaneously combust in a second "Are-you-really-sure" referendum, the situation has become interesting to watch - from a distance. Things that were unthinkable a few weeks ago are now not only thinkable, but possible. That should worry the hell out of a lot of people, although everything is so far off that there's no point in worrying now. Still, for the sake of speculation, here's some ideas that have come up, which are fascinating in the 'unfolding trainwreck' way of things:
1) The Dissolution of the United Kingdom: One big argument for Scotland staying with the UK is that it would remain part of the EU (a new nation would not get that effect). But if the UK leaves, Scotland might choose to stay behind. That seems a reasonable outcome. Additionally, Northern Ireland is economically dependent on an open border with the Republic of Ireland. The Unification of Ireland would be interesting (and would hand an unprepared Republic of Ireland a smoldering fuse to put out). Wales might also do a bit better out of the UK, although it's unclear whether they'll make the jump.
2) The Disposition of the Expats: There are always a surprising number of British expats looking to spend their days in more southern and sunnier climes, often under the auspices of post-Schengen open border agreements. What happens to them post-Brexit? If the EU is feeling mean, they'll say that British citizens no longer have the right to live in Europe without a lot more paperwork, but the houses have to be taxed anyway. It's a good way to make some money for the countries involved, and it's not like the situation vis-a-vis Britain could be much worse.
3) The Free City of London: While we're carving up the British Empire, let's take it's most valuable part. London was definitely on the Remain side of the ledger. Its multi-ethnic, multi-cultural nature, its immigrant past, and the ties of its main financial industries to international markets make it a perfect candidate to be in the EU. If the departure descends into plebiscite hell, it would be interesting to see if London makes a break for city-state status. Southeastern England wouldn't be a huge country, but it would be bigger and richer than some similarly sized nations, like Austria. This is a catastrophic idea, but the fact that people are talking about it even in jest is an "interesting" development (as in the Chinese curse).
4) Learning to spell things without a u: The UK is no longer the world power it was last week. One of the UK's natural strengths was in its position in a series of alliances. Now its ties with the rest of Europe seem in tatters. The UK isn't on that good of speaking terms with most of its former (non-white) colonies. The only thing left to them is their "Special Relationship" with the US - which just got a lot less special because there's a lot less they can offer. This may look a lot more like a client relationship than an alliance if the UK can't recover some European ground, just due to the hostile climate they have created locally and the dependence that fosters on her remaining friends. That's okay. The US is always willing to step up. We'll soon teach the British not to stick 'u' in every possible word, and not to use words like 'lorry' that aren't in real English (American English), and how to provide soldiers for American interventions. Hey, maybe you'll even get to become a US state once London is gone!
Overall though, there are a few years left to shape this conversation. Don't worry about the catastrophes. The damage can still be contained. Or reversed. Or we get a do-over. This isn't just politics, this is history and history is never over. |
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| Tea Leaf Reading |
[Apr. 16th, 2016|08:28 am]
danalwyn
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There's a lot of tea leaf reading you can do in the Presidential Primaries in the US right now. A lot of it can be done with using the ghost votes (early absentee ballots and all that) cast for Republicans no longer in the race to predict who should have stayed in, and what the voters of a state really think. You can do entire pages of statistical analysis on this. That's on top of the reams of which poll results are likely to be altered because of which candidate's last minute ground game, etc., etc.
Probably more productive to just drink the damn tea. At this point, the Republican race is really up in the air (the Democratic less so), and everyone should accept that until after the conventions are over. Then it's time to start figuring out what to do for the actual race that half the country has forgotten about. |
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| The End of Another Era |
[Mar. 5th, 2016|12:11 pm]
danalwyn
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So, Delmer Berg is dead.
I didn't actually know about Delmer Berg until this week, until he died, but he was the last survivor of the Abraham Lincoln brigade, and his death means that a strange but relevant portion of American history has slipped from living memory.
It's strange to look back at the 1930s and think that, at that time, both fascism and communism were seen as possibly viable successors to democracy. It is strange to remember that Americans of that time, in the throes of the great depression, amid the labor struggles and the struggles for survival that characterized the United States during the mid-30s, were so alarmed by the spread of fascism that some of them chose to volunteer to fight against the fascists in Spain.
The Spanish Civil War was an odd time. In our age of cynicism it is odd to think that people saw these new ideas in statecraft as representative of a golden future yet to come. But the Spanish Civil War became the flashpoint for conflict, attracting people of all ideological stripes to all sides. It draw not only on eAmerican laborers and activists, but also on foreign fascists, news reporters, and foreign authors like Ernest Hemingway and George Orwell. It saw the final death of European anarchism, and the collapse of the League of Nations. It was an accurate prelude to World War II, a clash between German and Italian troops on one side, and Soviets on the other, through the crush of Spanish auxiliaries.
The Abraham Lincoln brigade fought for the Spanish Republic, despite the lack of support from anywhere else in the world for the survival of what began as a liberal democratic republic. They were not only committed ideologues, but also wanderers, vagabonds, troublemakers, and adventurers. Equipped by the Soviet Union (and only barely), and facing an increasingly well-equipped Nationalist force, they fought in the heart in the war. They were exposed to the fire of their enemies, and to the pettiness, capriciousness, and vindictiveness of their erstwhile Communist leaders. Some grew disillusioned, some reaffirmed their dedication to international worker solidarity, while perhaps growing apart from Stalinism.
The journey of adventurism and ideology, followed by hopeless battle and eventual disillusionment has uncomfortable parallels to the journey many volunteers for IS now undertake. It is also an uncomfortable reminder to the American Left that once the dedication to workers was so strong that people were willing to journey across the ocean and fight for worker's solidarity. And it's a reminder that people of all stripes are so caught up in the way they view the world that they are willing to cross it and risk death in order to protect their worldview. Sometimes they may even be right.
I can't say what good or ill came out of the Abraham Lincoln brigade, but they overcame terrible burdens and fought for an ideal of solidarity that many of us would choose to applaud against an enemy all of us would choose to loathe. For that they deserve to be remembered. |
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| Jiggery-Pokery |
[Feb. 14th, 2016|08:25 am]
danalwyn
|
Goodbye Scalia, we hardly even knew ye.
I mean, you were around for a while, but your opinions, while strident, were so ideologically incoherent that we had a hard time figuring out what you actually stood for. Something to do with the constitution, we think, or your particular interpretation of it, unless it proved convenient to whoever you were angry at today.
So, who knows? His death leaves the court deadlocked (and Republicans threatening to block nominations), and reduces the vitriol per Supreme Court opinion by about ninety percent, and concentrates most of the burden of judicial incoherence in Clarence Thomas.
May he be replaced soon so we can get on with the damn business of running the country. |
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| Still Raining |
[Jan. 21st, 2016|08:14 pm]
danalwyn
|
It's been raining for a while, off and on. Some people are beginning to get tired of it.
Thing is, we've still gotten barely over half of our winter rainfall (measured July to June). The snowpack is over average, but it's under 100%, and ending the drought will take 150%. In four years or so we've forgotten what winter used to be like in California, and also completely underestimated the sheer amount of damage that we've suffered to our water system.
It's not a vanishing problem. Thing is, people are living in the wrong place, farming in the wrong place, and trying to squeeze water out of the wrong place. It's probably necessary - after all, there's no such thing as a perfect spot where nobody has to worry, but the situation isn't getting much better.
I hold out hope for the rest of the rainy season, but we need all we can get. Maybe this year will be good enough to put us back on the road to recovery. |
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| Manliest of Men |
[Dec. 1st, 2015|07:33 am]
danalwyn
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So, it's been a while since Turkey shot down a Russian jet and nobody seems to have started World War III.
I'm hoping that this will disrupt the strange, peculiar, and in some cases almost homoerotic fascination that members of the American right have with Vladimir Putin as a strong, macho, manly man who doesn't take guff from anyone. For a man who is supposed to show no fear and whose tough use of force is supposed to make everyone else back down he's been putting on quite a show of nothing. Then again, when it comes to the Putin-fanboys in the Republican party making a sensible course correction, I'm not holding my breath. I suppose manly men never admit when they're wrong. |
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| A Reminder That Is Too Late Is Simply Guilt |
[Nov. 3rd, 2015|07:06 pm]
danalwyn
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So, if you are American, hopefully you have done your civic duty. It's probably too late now, but you never know. And if you missed this election day, you can always make it up by annoying your local government in person. It's what I do. |
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| Three decisions |
[Jun. 27th, 2015|09:54 am]
danalwyn
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While everyone is celebrating over Obergefell:
Held: The Fourteenth Amendment requires a State to license a marriage between two people of the same sex and to recognize a marriage between two people of the same sex when their marriage was lawfully licensed and performed out-of-State
one should also not forget Texas Department of Housing:
Held: Disparate-impact claims are cognizable under the Fair Housing Act.
and King:
Held: Section 36B’s tax credits are available to individuals in States that have a Federal Exchange.
It's been a banner week for the court, approving gay marriage, upholding the Fair Housing Act, and continuing the ACA. It's also been a terrible week for Scalia. That's okay too. If you drew a Venn Diagram of Major Court Opinions I Agree With, and Major Court Opinions Scalia Dissents On you would only have to draw one circle. |
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