Revival of the Belt and Road Initiative in Africa

 Australia's Griffith University and the Green Finance & Development Center in Shanghai published on 18 January 2026 "China Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) Investment Report 2025" by Christoph Nedopil Wang.

Since the beginning of BRI in 2013, the report says Chinese construction projects (profit making opportunities by Chinese construction companies) totaled $837 billion globally while investment projects totaled $561 billion globally.  The figures are based on having an active memorandum of understanding with China at the time of the report.  Energy, mining, and transportation projects top the list.

In 2025, Africa accounted for a significant increase ($61.2 billion) in BRI engagement (construction projects and investment), but most of it was in construction projects (47 percent of global total) and not investment (22 percent of global total).  Nigeria alone accounted for $24.6 billion in construction projects and the Republic of the Congo for another $23.1 billion.  

Do Chinese Arms in Venezuela Hold Lessons for Chinese Arms Transfers to Africa?

 China-Africa Security Radar posted on 19 January 2026 an article titled "Chinese Weapons in Venezuela: Are There Any Lessons for Africa?"

Venezuela relies heavily on Chinese weapons.  According to some accounts, the weapons performed poorly vis-a-vis American weapons used in the abduction of President Nicolas Madura.  This raises questions about Chinese arms transfers to Africa and whether they are a good match against American weapons, or if more training is required in their use. 

Minnesota Immigration Crackdown Impacts Somali Businesses

 The Associated Press published on 18 January 2026 an article titled "Somali Businesses Struggle during the Minneapolis ICE Crackdown" by Sarah Raza.

Minneapolis/St. Paul has the largest concentration of Somali Americans in the United States.  The crackdown on immigrants in the Twin Cities has forced many Somali businesses to shut down.

China Steps Up Soft Power in Africa

 The South China Morning Post published on 18 January 2026 an article titled "How China Is Stepping Up Africa China Offensive to Boost Cultural Ties, Deepen Influence" by Jevans Nyabiage.  

China began 2026 by emphasizing its people-to-people and soft power interaction in Africa.  This was one of the features of Foreign Minister Wang Yi's visit to Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Lesotho.

Fraying of US-South Africa Relations

 The Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies published on 16 January 2026 a policy brief titled "South Africa Eyes Confrontation with Trump over Growing Ties to China, Russia, Iran" by Max Meizlish and Daniel Swift.

South Africa's ANC-led government is testing the limits of cordial relations with the Trump administration by strengthening its ties with China, Russia, and Iran.  

Trump Says US Is Ready to Restart Mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia

 NBC News posted on 17 January 2026 an article titled "Egypt Welcomes Trump's Offer to Mediate Nile Water Dispute with Ethiopia" by Freddie Clayton.

In a letter to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, President Trump said he is "ready to restart U.S. mediation between Egypt and Ethiopia to responsibly resolve the question of "The Nile Water Sharing' once and for all."

Comment:  When the Trump administration tried during its first term to mediate among Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan the Nile water issue, it did not end well.  The Egypt-Ethiopia "war" is also one of the eight that President Trump has said he has already resolved.   

China's Space Engagement with Africa

 The Center for Strategic and International Studies published on 15 January 2026 a report titled "In China's Orbit: Beijing's Space Diplomacy in the Global South" by Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, and Aidan Powers-Riggs.

China is engaging in space cooperation across the Global South and Africa has emerged as a focal point of its efforts, especially Egypt, Ethiopia, and Namibia.  This study provides satellite photography to document China's facilities in all three countries.  

Former Indian Ambassador to Ethiopia Assesses China's Approach to Africa

 The Indian website Firstpost published on 16 January 2026 a commentary titled "China Recalibrates Its Africa Outreach: Insights from Wang Yi's Tour" by Gurgit Singh, former Indian ambassador to Germany, Indonesia, Ethiopia, ASEAN, and the Africa Union.

China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi has just completed a visit to Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Lesotho and skipped Somalia at the last minute.  Wang Yi's visit demonstrated that China is adjusting its methods in Africa to reflect debt fatigue, security volatility, and intensifying great power competition.   

US Condemns Iranian Participation in South African Naval Exercise

 Newsweek published on 16 January 2026 an article titled "US Issues Strong Statement on China-led Naval Drills with Iran" by Micah McCartney.

Three Iranian warships--a corvette and two converted tankers--arrived in South Africa for the BRICS' naval exercise involving ships from South Africa, China, Russia, and the UAE.  

The US embassy in Pretoria issued a statement that "it is particularly unconscionable that South Africa welcomed Iranian security forces as they were shooting, jailing, and torturing Iranian citizens engaging in peaceful political activity South Africans fought so hard to gain for themselves."

The South African government apparently asked the Iranians to keep the ships in the harbor and only participate in the naval exercise as observers.

What Africa Wants from China in 2026

 The Africa Center for Strategic Studies published on 16 January 2026 an analysis titled "What to Expect from Africa-China Relations in 2026."

The focus of the analysis is what Africa hopes to get from China in 2026.  In summary, Africa seeks to rebalance its ties with China concerning debt sustainability, value addition, and industrialization and to move toward a more equal and transparent partnership that prioritizes long-term African development.  Africa wants a strategic partnership aligned with Agenda 2063.

Slashing Climate Resilience Programs Does Not Put America First

 Foreign Affairs published on 16 January 2026 an article titled "Less Foreign Aid, More Climate Risk: The Massive Costs of Gutting USAID" by Alice Hill and Lindsey Doyle.

Modest investment in USAID-financed climate-resilience projects has been gutted by the Trump administration.  Slashing funding and decimating the institutions that deliver it is neither fiscal prudence nor putting America first.  

Kenya-China Trade Deal and US Takes Step to Renew AGOA

 The Eastleigh Voice published on 15 January 2026 an article titled "Kenya Secures New Trade Deal with China Granting 98 Percent Zero-duty Access for Exports" by Barack Oduor.

Kenya and China reached a preliminary agreement that allows for 98.2 percent zero-duty market access for Kenyan goods.  The US House of Representatives also renewed for 3 years the Africa Growth and Opportunity Act, which if approved by the Senate and signed by the president, would give Kenya widespread duty-free market access to the United States.

Comment:  Kenya has for years run a huge trade deficit with China.  It remains to be seen of this trade agreement with Beijing will improve the situation significantly from Kenya's standpoint.  In recent years, Kenya has had a modest goods and services trade surplus with the United States.  

Dubai's DP World to Remain in Somaliland

 Reuters published on 13 January 2026 an article titled "DP World Says Somaliland Port Operations Continue Amid Regional Tensions."

Dubai-owned ports and logistics DP World said its operations were continuing at Berbera port in breakaway Somaliland following an escalation of tension between the UAE and Saudi Arabia in nearby Yemen.  In addition, Somalia's government in Mogadishu said it was annulling all agreements with the UAE, including port deals, although it does not control Hargeisa's deal with DP World.    

Ethiopia-Eritrea and Regional Dynamics

 The International Crisis Group posted on 15 January 2026 a 39-minute podcast titled "The Ethiopia-Eritrea Standoff" with Michael Woldemariam, University of Maryland, and Alan Boswell.  

Tension between Ethiopia and Eritrea continues to grow.  Both countries are increasing their purchase of weapons and extending their competition into the conflict in Sudan.  International pressure may be restraining direct conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea.  The political space in Tigray Region continues to fragment, although the faction aligned with Eritrea now has the upper hand.

Landlocked Ethiopia is pressing its effort to gain access to the Red Sea, now focusing on Eritrea's port of Assab, which is driving the tension with Asmara.  Eritrea takes the position that it cannot negotiate its sovereign territory.  Both countries also compete to be seen as leaders in the region.  

Saudi Arabia and the UAE are engaging in open conflict in Yemen and in the Horn of Africa.  Eritrea wants Saudi Arabia to counter UAE influence in the region.  Addis Ababa probably viewed Israel's recognition of Somaliland favorably while Asmara opposed it.  

One development that would improve relations between Ethiopia and Eritrea is an end to the conflict in Sudan.  This would remove a point of contention and open the door to a rapprochement.  

Saudi-UAE Rivalry Playing Out in Sudan

 AEI's Critical Threats Africa File published on 16 January 2026 an article titled "Sudan" by Michael DeAngelo.

Increasing Saudi-UAE rivalry in Yemen may also be playing out in Sudan where the UAE has backed militarily the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces and Saudi Arabia may now finance Pakistani weapons for the Sudan Armed Forces (SAF).  The SAF deal with Pakistan gives Khartoum another reason to continue to slow roll a Russian naval base on Sudan's Red Sea coast as it has less need for similar military assistance promised by Moscow.

Talks to End Sudan War Resume in Cairo

 The Associated Press published on 14 January 2026 an article titled "Discussions to End Sudan War Resume in Cairo as It Nears the 30Year Mark" by Fatma Khaled.

Egypt's foreign minister and the UN secretary general's personal envoy for Sudan resumed talks in Cairo on 14 January calling on the warring parties to agree to a nationwide humanitarian truce.  Egypt made clear that it would not support any proposal for a divided Sudan.

The Unravelling of the U.S. Foreign Service

 Lawfare Daily published on 14 January 2026 an interview titled "The U.S. Foreign Service at a 'Breaking Point' with John Dinkelman."

John Dinkelman, president of the American Foreign Service Association and a 37-year veteran of the State Department, describes the dismal state of affairs in the U.S. Foreign Service today.

Comment:  I also spent 37-years in the U.S. Foreign Service, albeit in an earlier period than Dinkelman, and find it heart-breaking to learn what is happening to an organization that I love and respect.  

US Suspends Immigrant Visa Processing from 75 Countries

 PBS News published on 14 January 2026 an article titled "State Department Suspending Immigrant Visas for 75 Countries, Citing Public Assistance Concerns."

The State Department announced on 14 January that effective 21 January it will suspend the processing of immigrant visas for citizens of 75 countries whose nationals the Trump administration has deemed likely to require public assistance while living in the United States.  The suspension will not apply to applicants seeking non-immigrant visas, or temporary tourist or business visas.  

The 75 countries include 26 in Africa: Algeria, Cameroon, Cape Verde, DRC, Egypt, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea, Ivory Coast, Liberia, Libya, Morocco, Nigeria, Republic of Congo, Rwanda, Senegal, Sierra Leone, Somalia, South Sudan, Sudan, Tanzania, Togo, Tunisia, and Uganda.  

Iranian Naval Vessels Withdraw from South African BRICS Exercise

 The Daily Maverick published on 12 January 2026 an article titled "Iran Pulls Out of SA's Joint Naval Exercise Amid Political Tensions" by Peter Fabricius.

Three Iranian naval vessels joined warships from South Africa, China, Russia, and the UAE in Simon's Town, South Africa, to participate in a weeklong BRICS' naval exercise.  The Iranian vessels will not, however, join the others as the exercise gets underway.  Pretoria reportedly urged Iran to withdraw from the exercise to avoid antagonizing the United States.  

Will the Voice of America Rise Like a Phoenix?

 The Washington Post posted on 13 January 2026 an article titled "Congress Agrees to Fund Voice of America, Bucking Trump Shutdown Order" by Scott Nover.

A bipartisan spending bill from both houses of Congress would allocate $643 million for broadcasting from the U.S. Agency for Global Media (USAGM), which oversees the Voice of America (VOA).  While that figure is down from the $867 million appropriated for the agency each of the last two years, it is more than four times the $153 million the Trump administration requested that Congress provide to "support the orderly shutdown of USAGM operations."  The package still needs full House and Senate approval before going to President Trump for signature.  

In March, Trump called for the dismantlement of USAGM, which also funds Radio Free Asia, Radio Liberty, and Radio Free Europe.  Kari Lake, the deputy CEO installed by Trump to shut down USAGM, placed more than 1,300 VOA staffers on paid administrative leave and halted broadcasting operations.  It is the first time the VOA went silent since it was established in 1942.  

Comment:  The decision to dismantle USAGM was especially misguided.  Elon Musk played a major role in the decision.  It is refreshing there is bipartisan support in Congress to fund the agency, albeit at reduced levels.  While this is not yet a done deal, it hopefully invokes the lyrics of the song "Rise Like a Phoenix" by Conchita Wurst, chosen to represent Austria at the 2014 Eurovision Song Contest in Denmark:

Rise like a phoenix

Out of the ashes

Seeking rather than vengeance,

retribution

You were warned

Once I'm transformed, once I'm

reborn

I rise to the sky

You threw me down but

I'm gonna fly 

Ethiopia: Who Is to Blame for Tigray War?

 Ethiopia Insight published on 14 January 2026 a commentary titled "Getachew Blurs Blame for Tigray War to Excuse the Ethiopian State" by Mesfin Ayenew, a political analyst.

The author takes issue with the efforts of Getachew Reda, former interim president of Tigray Region, to explain the Tigray war in a way that selectively absolves Ethiopia's federal government.  Getachew claims the war resulted primarily from the belligerence and rhetorical excess of Tigray's leadership.  The author disagrees.

Somalia Cancels All Deals with the UAE

 Aljazeera published on 13 January 2026 an article titled "'Last Straw': Somalia Cuts UAE Ties after Yemen Separatist's Illegal Entry" by Faisal Ali.  

Somalia cancelled all deals with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) after UAE-backed Yemeni separatist leader Aidarous al-Zubaidi illegally entered Abu Dhabi through the breakaway region of Somaliland.  Mogadishu had other complaints against the UAE, but this was the final straw.  The two countries apparently did not break diplomatic relations.  

China's Long Game in Africa

 Kenya's The Star published on 13 January 2026 an article titled "(Understanding China) Wang Yi's Africa Visit and China's Long Game in a Fractured World" by Stephen Ndegwa.  

The author argues that Africa is not just China's partner for growth but a "co-architect of a new global narrative."  Increasingly, the relationship is rooted in "strategic coherence, institutional cooperation and global multilateral engagement."

Comment:  This highly favorable analysis of the China-Africa relationship conveniently ignores Africa's large and continuing trade deficit with China and the mercantilist policy whereby China sells mostly value-added goods to Africa while importing almost entirely raw materials from Africa.

Career Officers Seeking Ambassadorships: Hibernate for at Least Three Years

 The National Journal published on 12 January 2026 an article titled "Trump's Ambassadors Are Largely Political Appointees" by Ledyard King.

As of January 1, 2026, 64 of the 70 nominated ambassadors--91 percent--have been political choices based on their ties to the Trump administration or the amount of money they donated to the Trump campaign.  In a normal administration, at the end of four years, the ratio is about two-thirds career officers and one-third political appointees.  

Comment:  While the percentage of political appointees to career officers may change over the next three years, the outlook for career Foreign Service officers is pretty dismal.  

Israel's Recognition of Somaliland Changes Dynamic in Horn of Africa

 Ethiopia Insight published on 12 January 2026 a commentary titled "The Geopolitical Ripple Effects of Somaliland's Recognition" by Muktar Ismail, regional analyst.  

Israel's recognition of Somaliland sparked a largely negative international response, underscoring its isolation on the issue.  Of the 15 member states of the UN Security Council, only the United States defended Israel's right to recognize Somaliland.  The al-Shabaab terrorist organization, which controls parts of Somalia, cast the decision as a "Zionist crusader project."