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Featured

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Nvidia Blows Away Estimates

February 25, 2026
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    Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales

    February 25, 2026
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    How ‘Doomers And Boomers’ Took Over US Equity Options

    February 25, 2026
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    Albert Edwards Says AI Macro Doomsday Is ‘Here Right Now!’

    February 25, 2026February 25, 2026

Markets

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On Citrini’s 2028 AI Dystopia

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026
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    The US Stock Market’s Officially Too Big To Fail

    February 23, 2026February 24, 2026
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    How Stocks Could Go From Selling Off To Melting Up

    February 23, 2026February 24, 2026
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    Weekly: Is Blue Owl The Private Credit Canary?

    February 21, 2026February 23, 2026
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    If The ‘Smart Money’ Is A Contrarian Indicator, It’s Time To Sell

    February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

politics

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The Tariff Ruling Isn’t About Tariffs

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026
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    Funds Who Bet Against Trump’s Tariffs Face Stark Choice

    February 22, 2026February 24, 2026
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    Trump Castigates Supreme Court, Promises Even Higher Tariffs

    February 20, 2026February 23, 2026
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    Trump’s Tariff Emergency Gets Thumbs Down From SCOTUS

    February 20, 2026February 22, 2026
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    ‘As Soon As This Weekend’: Iran’s Out Of Time

    February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

Duly Noted+

Cheap Stocks Are Going Extinct

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026

Down Payment Burden Emerges As Biggest Homebuyer Hurdle

February 18, 2026February 19, 2026

Economy

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Citrini’s AI Dystopia Story In 10 Easy Macro Points

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026
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Real US Home Values Are Still Shrinking

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026
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Lipstick On A Pig

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026

Nvidia Blows Away Estimates

February 25, 2026

The high drama around Nvidia’s Q4 report was amplified on Wednesday afternoon in the US

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Leave a Comment on Nvidia Blows Away Estimates

Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales

February 25, 2026

Boy, I’ll tell you what: US housing’s in a bad, bad way. I realize this

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1 Comment on Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales

How ‘Doomers And Boomers’ Took Over US Equity Options

February 25, 2026

“Doomers and boomers.” That’s the US equity options space in a nutshell. The description comes

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1 Comment on How ‘Doomers And Boomers’ Took Over US Equity Options

Albert Edwards Says AI Macro Doomsday Is ‘Here Right Now!’

February 25, 2026February 25, 2026

SocGen’s Albert Edwards knows a thing or five about macroeconomic apocalypses, having predicted all of

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14 Comments on Albert Edwards Says AI Macro Doomsday Is ‘Here Right Now!’

On Citrini’s 2028 AI Dystopia

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026

I used to wonder if the genius, multilingual Bulgarian provocateur who taught me the tricks

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21 Comments on On Citrini’s 2028 AI Dystopia

Citrini’s AI Dystopia Story In 10 Easy Macro Points

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026

While painstakingly reviewing the dystopian near-future novella that destabilized markets early this week, I wrote,

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15 Comments on Citrini’s AI Dystopia Story In 10 Easy Macro Points

Real US Home Values Are Still Shrinking

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026

Real home values in America just shrank for a seventh consecutive month. “Just” isn’t quite

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3 Comments on Real US Home Values Are Still Shrinking

Lipstick On A Pig

February 24, 2026February 25, 2026

Could’ve been worse. Seriously. It really could’ve been worse. One of this week’s only two

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2 Comments on Lipstick On A Pig

The US Stock Market’s Officially Too Big To Fail

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026

Late last week, I called the US economy a Potemkin village and not for the

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7 Comments on The US Stock Market’s Officially Too Big To Fail

Cheap Stocks Are Going Extinct

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026

Where can one find some cheap stocks? Put differently, where are the bargains in the

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3 Comments on Cheap Stocks Are Going Extinct

How Stocks Could Go From Selling Off To Melting Up

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026

If investors can overcome the psychological albatross that is “pure tariff chaos” and assuming cold-hearted

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5 Comments on How Stocks Could Go From Selling Off To Melting Up

The Tariff Ruling Isn’t About Tariffs

February 23, 2026February 24, 2026

Donald Trump’s Customs and Border Protection agency said they’ll stop collecting trade duties implemented under

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9 Comments on The Tariff Ruling Isn’t About Tariffs

‘A Real Mess’: US Consumers, Trade Partners Face ‘Pure Tariff Chaos’

February 22, 2026February 23, 2026

“To be very frank, it’s a real mess.” So said Itsunori Onodera during an interview

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4 Comments on ‘A Real Mess’: US Consumers, Trade Partners Face ‘Pure Tariff Chaos’

Funds Who Bet Against Trump’s Tariffs Face Stark Choice

February 22, 2026February 24, 2026

On Friday, while regaling reporters following the unfavorable Supreme Court ruling which crumbled a key

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10 Comments on Funds Who Bet Against Trump’s Tariffs Face Stark Choice

Weekly: Is Blue Owl The Private Credit Canary?

February 21, 2026February 23, 2026

Four months ago, when a couple of bankruptcies in the auto sector riled regional lenders

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8 Comments on Weekly: Is Blue Owl The Private Credit Canary?

Trump Castigates Supreme Court, Promises Even Higher Tariffs

February 20, 2026February 23, 2026

Donald Trump on Friday presided over an irritable, rambling press conference after the Supreme Court

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10 Comments on Trump Castigates Supreme Court, Promises Even Higher Tariffs

Trump’s Tariff Emergency Gets Thumbs Down From SCOTUS

February 20, 2026February 22, 2026

Illegal. That’s Donald Trump’s tariffs. At least when levied under The International Emergency Economic Powers

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8 Comments on Trump’s Tariff Emergency Gets Thumbs Down From SCOTUS

Inflation’s Back In America. Not That It Ever Left

February 20, 2026February 21, 2026

Inflation’s not tamed in America. The Fed knows it. Minutes from the January FOMC meeting,

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3 Comments on Inflation’s Back In America. Not That It Ever Left

Government Dysfunction Torpedoes US Economic Growth

February 20, 2026February 22, 2026

The US economy expanded at just half the expected pace during the final quarter of

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2 Comments on Government Dysfunction Torpedoes US Economic Growth

America’s ‘Jobless Boom’ Risks Becoming Techno Potemkin Village

February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

Earlier this week, while editorializing around minutes from 2026’s first FOMC meeting, I said we’re

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15 Comments on America’s ‘Jobless Boom’ Risks Becoming Techno Potemkin Village

If The ‘Smart Money’ Is A Contrarian Indicator, It’s Time To Sell

February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

How much faith do you have in large companies’ capacity to remain exceptionally profitable over

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1 Comment on If The ‘Smart Money’ Is A Contrarian Indicator, It’s Time To Sell

‘As Soon As This Weekend’: Iran’s Out Of Time

February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

Donald Trump’s fond of boasting about being “locked and loaded” militarily, a threat he’s aimed

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16 Comments on ‘As Soon As This Weekend’: Iran’s Out Of Time

Another Day, Another Terrible Read On US Housing

February 19, 2026February 20, 2026

If you were looking for signs of life in the US housing market, you won’t

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2 Comments on Another Day, Another Terrible Read On US Housing

Fed Minutes Suggest Willingness To Hike If Inflation Not Tamed

February 18, 2026February 19, 2026

“Most participants” at 2026’s first FOMC meeting judged that inflation in the US is still

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3 Comments on Fed Minutes Suggest Willingness To Hike If Inflation Not Tamed

‘No Landing’ Is Back In A Big Way

February 18, 2026February 19, 2026

Don’t look now, but “no landing” has (very quietly this time) become the consensus global

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6 Comments on ‘No Landing’ Is Back In A Big Way

Will Trump Take The War Plunge In Iran?

February 18, 2026February 19, 2026

Hesitant. That’s me when it comes to parroting an Axios report that a major war

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2 Comments on Will Trump Take The War Plunge In Iran?

Down Payment Burden Emerges As Biggest Homebuyer Hurdle

February 18, 2026February 19, 2026

It’s a familiar dynamic: Mortgage rates in the US fell, prompting an uptick in refis

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2 Comments on Down Payment Burden Emerges As Biggest Homebuyer Hurdle

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter+

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    Resignation

Recent Comments

  • BustedClock on Albert Edwards Says AI Macro Doomsday Is ‘Here Right Now!’
  • derek on Nothing Doing: Lowest Rates Since 2022 Fail To Spur Home Sales
  • therealheisenberg on Citrini’s AI Dystopia Story In 10 Easy Macro Points
  • CL on Citrini’s AI Dystopia Story In 10 Easy Macro Points

Monthly Letters

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Resignation

January 30, 2026January 30, 2026
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The Noriega Analogue

January 3, 2026January 3, 2026
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Bookkeepers

November 30, 2025November 30, 2025
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