Resolution source: Epoch AI's list of notable AI models. I will check this source on January 1st, 2026, to see whether there is a model that uses more than 1e28 FLOPS https://epoch.ai/data/notable-ai-models

AI models do not only include LLMs, but...

Associated grant: New Incentives — General Support (April 2020)

Cryogenic pauses on time spent do not count as years lived. Cyber existences do not count. All organ replacements and transplants (including brain and head) count as continued living of the original human.

Will resolve if one or more human born...

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jan '26.

The resolution source for this market will be information from...

This question resolves based on https://lmarena.ai/?leaderboard Arena Score on June 30 at 4pm ET.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the AI industry experiences an industry downturn by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, the AI industry will be considered to have...

Arden Koehler: "...do you have a guess at what degree of warming we would need to reach for the full-scale collapse of society, perhaps due to very, very widespread famine to have say a 10% chance of happening? Mark Lynas: "Oh, I think… You want to...

Is this description of the US from Hananias recent post Conservatives Win All the Time Conservatives Win All the Time accurate?

“[...] Recently major institutions [have] become openly anti-white and anti-male. Gay propaganda in schools has exploded,...

Creating shorter timeline market as 2028 one seems to be v bullish.

I tried with GPT-3 to draw some donuts. I really did. It kept giving me a shirtless man. Or a scary looking spider.

I tried again with GPT-3.5 aka the "ChatGPT". It was very bad...

If Trump does not win the 2024 US presidential election, resolves N/A.

If Trump does win, resolves Yes if, in any single incident before the end of 2026, more than 2 protestors or rioters die in public clashes with the authorities in the District...

In the upcoming game, scheduled for February 9, 2026 If FC Fredericia wins, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If...

Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the listed...

This market will resolve based on Fannie Mae's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.

If no IPO occurs by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by June 30, 2026".

Market capitalization...

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the UT-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A...

In the upcoming CBB game, scheduled for January 22 at 7:00 PM ET:

This market will resolve to "Over" if the Towson Tigers and Elon Phoenix combine to score 147 or more points in this game.

If the combined total is less than 147, this market will...

Will China be able to mass produce humanoid robots by the end of 2025?

Resolves the same as the original on Metaculus.

(https://www.metaculus.com/questions/question_embed/19878/?theme=dark)Resolution criteria

The question resolves Yes if credible...

"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).

"take control" means direct managerial authority of...

End of sunday, pacific time

75% of notifications showing up within a few minutes of when they should, hour-late notifications or spotty notifications won't count

This market will resolve according to the player who is awarded the 2025–26 NBA Most Improved Player.

If the listed player is not announced as a finalist for the 2025–26 Most Improved Player, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution...

In August 2024, musicians Noel and Liam Gallagher announced they would return as Oasis for a new tour in 2025 (BBC, Billboard). On 27 August 2024, the originally announced UK shows included 12 dates scheduled to run from 4 July 2025 to 9 August 2025...

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the IA-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take...