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Gestalt #270

Nipah Virus in India (and Bangladesh?)

At least 5 people have been infected with Nipah virus in the Indian State of West Bengal, which is immediately adjacent to Bangladesh. This virus has a high fatality rate (approximantely 70%). It is transmitted to humans by bats. Some people have been infected as a result of consuming date palm sap which has been contaminated by bats. Human-to-human spread of the virus has been reported in cases with close contact. The current outbreak in humans involves health care workers. Thus, there is almost certainly human-to-human transmission in this outbreak. How many humans are in the chain of transmission is difficult to say based on the information currently available. Also, it is possible that there are cases in Bangladesh which have not yet been reported. There have been many reports of Nipah virus in Bangladesh in the past.

What is almost never said about vaccines

Lost in the anti-vaxx battles is one simple fact: vaccines save the US taxpayers and companies enormous sums of money. Yes, saving lives is the most important thing, but money is also relevant. There have been lots of economic analyses done, but you can think about this for yourself. How many times have you missed work due to illness from an infectious disease? How much money did you cost your place of business by your absence? Mutliply this by all the other workers who get sick every year at your company. If you have your own business, you know how bad it is for your bottom-line to be out for a week. Also, consider the long term effects of illness. Infectious diseases like measles can cause life-long disability. The cost of treating children who will have permanent mental or other impairment is staggering. There is a great, and legitimate, concern about healthcare costs in the US. What doesn’t get said, often enough, is that preventative medicine, especially vacination, is the best way to keep costs down. The anti-vaxxers in the current administration are not only going to shorten our lives, they are also going to bring us to economic ruin.

Greenland isn’t a political issue, it’s a brain problem

Attempts to explain President Trump’s behavior as a result of politics are becoming increasingly strained. No one seems to want to state the obvious – he’s crazy. His brain is simply not working properly. Yes, it does make sense for the US to want control of Greenland. It is strategic. If the US can acquire it by convincing the people of Greenland to join the US though payments or other inducements, we should definitely do this. But threatening to invade the territory of a NATO ally and taking it by force? This is just plain nuts. President Trump’s behavior isn’t going to get better. Dementia is a one-way trip. Expect increasingly bizarre and dangerous orders from him.

References

Research and development priorities for Nipah virus outbreak preparedness
https://www.nature.com/articles/s44360-025-00014-9
Avumegah, et al. 2026

Health and Economic Benefits of Routine Childhood Immunizations in the Era of the Vaccines for Children Program — United States, 1994–2023.
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/73/wr/mm7331a2.htm
Zhou et al. 2024 Morbidity and Mortality Weekly report

Health and Economic Impact of the United States Varicella Vaccination Program, 1996-2020
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10941259/
Zhou et al. 2024 Journal of Infectious Diseases

Gestalt #269 – Turmoil

There’s a lot going on this week. How can we understand it? What should we do about it?

Cuba – The “mystery” virus and the quiet crisis

In some of the tabloids, there are reports of a “mystery” virus that is making people very sick and sending large numbers to the hospital. In fact, it seems as if there are several well-known viruses causing disease in Cuba including dengue and chikungunya.

Cuba today is indeed a country of sick citizens who do not know exactly what they are suffering from. All they know is that they are being infected by “the virus” – a sinister ghost that has drifted across the entire island, wiping out its inhabitants. First come the high fevers, then red spots develop, or else peeling skin. Vomiting, diarrhea and headaches are inevitable. The hands and knees swell. Victims can barely stand on their feet, and there are those who have not walked again even after the worst is over. A limp indicates a virus survivor. Citizens who drag their legs or complain about achy joints have likely also been hit.

-snip-

Almost all families in Cuba have had someone sick at home due to the country’s epidemiological crisis. The disease is in fact a combination of several mosquito-borne viruses, a model of “combined arboviruses” that includes dengue, Oropouche and chikungunya, as well as other respiratory viruses such as H1N[1] influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and Covid-19.
-‘We are dying’: Cuba sinks into a health crisis amid medicine shortages and misdiagnosis. Carla Gloria Colomé , EL PAIS, December 13, 2025

The Communist dictator who runs Cuba, Miguel Díaz-Canel Bermúdez, has ordered a cover up of the terrible state of healthcare in Cuba. This is not the only problem in Cuba. Decades of mismanagement by its communist rulers has resulted in an economy that is failing. Even availability of basics like food is in question. The recent arrest of the head of Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, will put even more pressure on Cuba due to Cuba’s reliance on Venezuela for its oil. It is impossible to predict when the Cuban government will fall, but it is a matter of when, not if.

There are about 11 million people in Cuba. Should that country be destabilized, there will be an awful lot of refugees if it doesn’t get a lot of help from the US – fast.

Iran – Be careful what you wish for

Many people would like to see regime change in Iran. This might happen in the near future. There are massive ongoing protests which may or may not succeed in toppling the government of the mullahs. Iran is in deep trouble. Partly it is a result of sanctions but largely due to governmental incompetence and corruption. Food inflation is a real threat to Iranians. Even water availability is in question in Tehran. A government that cannot guarantee food and water will not last for long.

The question is: what comes next? Reza Pahlavi, the son of the last Shah of Iran, is making a play to be the next ruler of Iran. The international community should do nothing to help him. The enemy of your enemy is not necessarily your friend. His father was brutal dictator who oppressed his people and deserved to be overthrown. Installing another Pahlavi as dictator of Iran would be a mistake. The Iranian people should choose their next leader, hopefully one who will focus on basics like food and water; avoid foreign entanglements; and work to reintegrate Iran into the community of nations.

If this doesn’t happen… Well, Iran has been working on weapons of mass destruction, and not just nuclear bombs. They have a biological weapons program. I’m not sure how advanced it is, but I do hope we have someone focused on securing them, should Iran descend into chaos. Biological weapons are a lot harder to track than nuclear weapons.

The United States – Staying safe by avoiding malicious people

It is too soon to judge all of the circumstances of Renee Good’s death in Minneapolis. More videos will come to light and we will have a better picture of what happened over time. One thing is clear though, she should not have been where she was. And she was urged to do to what she did by someone close to her. Now, there are groups urging more direct action in areas where there are ICE agents. This is a really bad idea.

The best way to express your opinion on ICE or any other government policy is through the ballot box. This is how real change is achieved in the US. If you feel the need to protest, then go to the source of the policy you disagree with and protest there, which is usually Washington DC. Get a permit and make sure you obey all laws. Interfering with ICE or any other form of law enforcement is illegal and foolish. That doesn’t mean that ICE agents have the right to shoot anyone they are annoyed with. But you don’t know what is going on in any individual ICE agent’s head. The ICE agent who shot Renee Good had been attacked, with a car, and was nearly killed, a few months ago. Renee Good did not know that. Would she have been in a car near that agent if she had?

The protests today are being sponsored by groups who wish to install a communist dicatorship in America. These include the “Party of Socialism & Liberation”; you will see their name at the bottom of some of the well-made signs seen at some of the protests. This group is funded by a businessman located in Shanghai with close ties to the Communist Party of China. You will also see signs with the abbreviation – FRSO. That stands for “Freedom Road Socialist Organization”. This is another communist group. I realize that not everyone who protests is a communist sympathizer. However, protesters who simply want to change government policy should avoid being near these people and should also avoid ICE agents. The communists want to stir up trouble in the US and don’t care who gets hurt in the process.

Be smart. Stay safe.

References

Party for Socialism and Liberation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Party_for_Socialism_and_Liberation

Freedom Road Socialist Organization
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Freedom_Road_Socialist_Organization

Worthwhile

A book

In Dubious Battle – John Steinbeck
https://www.goodreads.com/book/show/56083.In_Dubious_Battle

A movie

Red Nightmare
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cgR4apcz_Ew

Gestalt #268

A bad flu year

The early and severe flu seaon we are currently experiencing reminds us that “ordinary” flu can be devastating. Children and older people are getting hit hard this year. Hospitals are overwhelmed and there are many tragic deaths. How much of this is due to this particular strain of flu and how much is due to a poorly matched vaccine and low vaccine uptake is not clear, yet. “Ordinary” flu can kill you just as dead as a pandemic strain. Taking precautions during infectious disease outbreaks is always a good idea. Mask up, if you want to stay vertical.

Asian War Theater

Japanese leaders have floated the idea of Japan getting nuclear weapons. They really have no choice about this. China intends to build an Asian empire. It cannot do this with an intact Japan. If Japan cannot deter China with nuclear weapons, Japan will be destroyed. It is really that simple. China is getting ready to invade Taiwan. The US government needs to be ready to deal with this. Xi may not wait for the next US President.

European War Theater

Some say Russia cannot invade western Europe because its economy is so poor. To these pundits I ask, what was Russia’s economy like right after WW II? Did that stop them from taking half of Europe? Who stopped them from taking the other half? Russia’s superpowers are: 1. They have nuclear weapons and won’t hesitate to use them. 2. Many Russians are on the verge of suicide right now. They won’t resist being sent to the meat grinder in Ukraine or anywhere else. 3. Putin can draw on an endless supply of hopeless young men from all over the world who will risk their lives for pennies.

External and Internal Illegal Drug Networks

There is no doubt that drugs are a serious problem in the US. This is at least one reason given for the recent US action in Venezuela. Disrupting external drug networks is a reasonable goal. However, what about internal drug networks? Most cocaine comes to the United States through Florida. Drug lords operate openly in Miami. They buy super expensive cars at Miami car dealerships; go to the finest Miami restuarants; date the catalog models from Collins Avenue (Miami Beach); live in the nicest neighborhoods; and launder their money at the WASPiest of banks. Cocaine is then funneled to well-heeled Wall Street traders with the assistance of various ethnic mafias. Perhaps we could ask Governor DeSantis and Attorney General Bondi why the Drug Lords of Miami and the bankers who serve them go untouched? Perhaps President Trump could use his knowledge of his “associates” in the construction business in New York City to disrupt at least one of the mafias that operate there? You know, before he went soft in the brain, Rudolph Giuliani was a heck of a prosecutor and one of the best mayors New York City has ever had. Could he redeem himself by returning to his roots and helping the Trump administration root out the New York and New Jersey mafias?

Worthwhile

Books

Barnaby Rudge – Charles Dickens
https://www.gutenberg.org/files/917/917-h/917-h.htm

Young Man from Caracas – Tom Ybarra

Movies

Scarface (1983) – Brain De Palma
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scarface_(1983_film)

Wag the Dog – Barry Levinson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wag_the_Dog

The Bank Job – Roger Donaldson
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Bank_Job

Gestalt #267 – The Great Fakening

Fake health news

The CDC has become unreliable as a source of medical information. I have long complained about their communication strategy. However, under RFK jr., they have hit new lows. They are now disseminating false information about a variety of vaccines and implementing policies likely to result in the deaths of Americans, especially children. We need a single source of reliable information about vaccines and the threats from infectious pathogens, both natural and artificial. We don’t have that right now.

Fake security news

“Tough on crime” polticians brag about this arrest or that confiscation of drugs, etc. We are using expensive missles to blow up fishing boats carrying cocaine to Europe. Yet, organized crime in the US seems to continue with little resistance. Why is this? There are streets in every major American city where you can buy illegal drugs quite openly. The cops in these cities know where the drug markets are and who the major drug dealers are. The police chiefs in these cities know. The mayors know. The governors of the States these cities are in know. And the FBI could easily find out if they wanted to know. We have, at both State and the federal level, ample resources to completely disrupt all organized crime in the United States – drugs, gambling, prostitution, you name it. But we don’t. Why? Can you guess? Yeah, big bags of money to the right people. See a big “bust”? Now you know who missed a payment.

Fake political news

President Trump often talks about “fake news”. He seems to mean any story that is damaging to him, whether it is true or not. However, I have recently seen actual “fake news”. A YouTube video featuring a well-known conservative commentator appeared to be reporting an interview on Fox News with President Trump that was interrupted because President Trump was making such extreme accusations that Fox lawyers demanded that the interview be terminated to avoid law suits. In fact, this interview never happened. I don’t know exactly how the YouTube video was created, but I suspect that actual footage of the conservative commenator was spliced together with some generated AI material to fill gaps. This false and defamatory video had a minimal and inadequate statement about how it was created and clearly fooled the people who commented about the “story”. I do not believe that YouTube could not identify this video as fake. I do not believe that they didn’t know that it was defamatory. Yet, they left it up. Why? This is just the beginning of what we can expect with AI. Not just that the technology will be used to create fake stories, but that media giants will use these stories as weapons against people they don’t like.

Seeing past the deception

Finding accurate information will only get harder, in almost every domain. Sociopathic predators have been given the green light to prey on the gullible and now have the technology to fool even the most perceptive of us. Even if you want to listen to only authoritative sources, what can you do when the authorities are liars?

For myself, I believe what I see with my own eyes in the real world. I trust nothing I see on the internet. Not that it is all lies, just that I no longer have any way to figure out whether it is real or not. We can only perceive a small part of what is happening in the real world directly. It may be useful to cultivate friends in other regions of the country and even in other countries and get eyewitness reports from them about what is happening in their region. Reading books, especially those written before the 1990s, will give you a more accurate picture of how the world actually works. Test your model of the world constantly. If things don’t add up, investigate further. But be careful. Asking too many questions that relate to corruption can put you in danger.

Gestalt #266

Genotype D1.1. H5N1 virus infects cattle in Wisconsin

The strain that has infected most dairy cows in the US is H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b genotype B3.13. However, another genotype of H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b, genotype D1.1, has infected cattle in Nevada and Arizona. On December 17, 2025, whole genome sequencing has revealed that cattle in Wisconsin have recently been infected with genotype D1.1 H5N1. Thus, there have been reported to be at least four independent transmissions of H5N1 to cattle from another species in the United States, at least three from genotype D1.1 and at least one from genotype B3.13. The latter genotype has also spread cow-to-cow and cow-to-human. What is happening now is that multiple strains of bird flu are infecting mammals with apparently increasing frequency. We can’t say if/when this result in a human pandemic, with possibly high lethality, but the odds seem to be increasing of this event occurring. This problem is not being addressed with the appropriate level of seriousness by the Trump administration.

Is “seasonal” flu worse this year?

The predominant “seasonal” flu that is causing illness this year is a strain of H3N2. Like all seasonal flus, it has mutated. There are many media reports referring to it as a “superflu”. Some experts suggests that this title is overdone as they don’t see any major change in symptoms from past years. What is clearly true is that large numbers of cases are occurring much earlier than in past years and many hospitals are under pressure. So, if you compare flu cases in November and early December with past years, we can say that there are many more cases than in the past. However, if the flu season also peaks sooner, will it turn out that this season was any worst than past years? At this point, we don’t know. However, I will suggest that, anecdotally, children, and adults, seem to be getting “sick” of flu and other infectious diseases more than they did in the past. Has SARS-CoV-2 weakened the immune systems of many children and adults so that they are more easily and severely infected than in the past? Has RFK jr’s war on vaccines discouraged more people from getting vaccinated? Has the lack of surge capacity in hospitals reach a critical point? So many variables that should obviously be studied and their relative effects quantified. And yet… we are left only with questions, no answers.

Drugs and the White House

It was a bit surreal to see Dr. Nora Volkow (the granddaughter of the famous Soviet communist Leon Trotsky and Director of the National Institute on Drug Abuse), applauding while President Trump signed an executive order loosening restrictions on marijuana, a drug which we know can cause schizophrenia in young people. This, at the same time as the US miltiary is tasked with killing Venezuelans attempting to smuggle cocaine to Europe. Cocaine was used heavily used in the 1970s and 1980s by the rich and powerful in New York City and continues to be used these same groups today. In 2023, a bag of cocaine was found in the White House. Many at the time attributed this cocaine to Hunter Biden who is known to have had problems with substance use. There were also reports of extensive and illegal overuse of prescription drugs such as Xanax and amphetamines in the first Trump administration. More recently, Susan Wiles, current White House Chief of Staff, referred to Elon Musk’s well-documented use of ketamine while he worked in the White House. I can certainly understand that people who work in the White House are under tremendous pressure and may feel that they need chemical “help” to function. However, I am concerned that this is not being done in a medically sound way. President Trump’s recent prime time speech was a bit strange. I have absolutely no evidence for this, but, I would not be surprised if he had been given a stimulant, perhaps an amphetamine, so that he could speak energetically. The hypocrisy of rampant use of drugs inappropriately in the White House also undercuts our moral authority in the current, perhaps quite literal, war on drugs. A question for the White House: Fentanyl is mostly getting into the United States via Mexico. China is the country most responsible for this, not Venezuela. Any plans to blow up Chinese ships bringing in the raw ingredients for Fentanyl to Mexico? What is US policy on drug use? Are we trying to decrease substance use in the US or loosening restrictions on it? Is it OK for some people to use drugs without medical supervision but not others? Is the number one threat to the US export of cocaine to Europe or the import of fentanyl to the US?

References

USDA confirms bird flu case in Wisconsin dairy herd as new wildlife spillover
https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/usda-confirms-bird-flu-case-wisconsin-dairy-herd-new-wildlife-spillover-2025-12-20/
December 20, 2025

What’s really going on with flu this winter?
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cr7lpmkl9r1o
James Gallagher December 20, 2025

Changes in Incident Schizophrenia Diagnoses Associated With Cannabis Use Disorder After Cannabis Legalization
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2829840
February 4, 2025

Trump’s White House Was ‘Awash in Speed’ — and Xanax
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/trump-white-house-drugs-speed-xanax-1234979503/
Noah Shachtman, Asawin Suebsaeng Rolling Stone March 3, 2024

Elon Musk Juggled Drugs and Family Drama on Trump’s Campaign Trail
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/05/30/us/elon-musk-drugs-children-trump.html
Kirsten Grind, Megan Twohey March 31, 2025

China-Based Chemical Manufacturing Companies and Employees Indicted for Alleged Fentanyl Manufacturing and Distribution
https://www.justice.gov/archives/opa/pr/china-based-chemical-manufacturing-companies-and-employees-indicted-alleged-fentanyl
October 24, 2024 US Department of Justice