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Increased oil production and robust non-oil sector expansion will boost regional growth in 2026, but the recent de-escalation of regional hostilities remains very precarious.
Defaults totaled 125 last year, down from 148 in 2024, with many speculative-grade issuers accessing capital markets to refinance. Distressed exchanges made up about two-thirds of defaults.
Performance will be generally stable but vary across sectors and regions. Private credit will influence asset origination while demand for AI will help maintain credit quality in many ABS sectors.
Conditions for regional and local governments in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK will remain difficult as healthcare and social spending continues to outpace scant revenue growth.
Energy security and affordability concerns will drive issuers to take pragmatic approaches to transition while the costs of extreme weather rise and AI shapes power demand, labor and data governance.
A sharp market correction would slash AI investment, strain startups and ripple across the semiconductor and data center industries. But demand for AI-related services would continue to grow.
Profit growth will reduce leverage, but vulnerabilities will persist in real estate and chemicals.
Nearly half of our industry sector outlooks (ISOs) are stable and EBITDA forecasts are largely holding firm, but unsettled consumer sentiment and shifting trade and economic policy all pose hazards.
Demand for data center capacity will continue to surge in 2026. Even as projects expand in size, developers are accelerating construction schedules to meet their tenants’ urgent need for capacity.
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