LA-Sen, LA-5: Rep. Julia Letlow (R) Will Run for Senate

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Breaking News

In a move that has apparently been in the works behind the scenes for quite some time, Trump pre-endorsed three-term Rep. Julia Letlow (R) for Senate over the weekend and she officially entered the race today. Letlow is by far the biggest-name primary challenger to Sen. Bill Cassidy (R), who has been on bad terms with Trump since voting for the 2021 second Trump impeachment. With Trump’s backing and a good rapport with most corners of the party, Letlow is likely now the clear favorite in the primary and for the Senate seat overall. There is a crowded field of lesser-known Republicans in the race, including State Treasurer John Fleming (R), State Sen. Blake Miguez (R), State Rep. Julie Emerson (R), PSC member Eric Skrmetta (R), and St. Tammany Parish commissioner Kathy Seiden (R); it seems likely all will be relegated to also-ran status at this point, with Letlow and Cassidy the clear favorites to advance to a primary runoff.

Letlow’s decision opens up LA-5, an R+18 seat covering an “L” shape along most of Louisiana’s Mississippi border, including most of the Monroe area and most of the White-majority portions of the Baton Rouge metro area. The Shreveport Times has a helpful Great Mentioner. State Sen. Rick Edmonds (R) is seen as certain to run, along with appointed LSU Board of Regents Chair Misti Cordell (R) and Livingston Parish GOP official Larry Davis (R). “Likely to run” are State Sen. Stewart Cathey (R) and State Reps. Daryl Deshotel (R), Michael Echols (R), and Dixon Wallace McMakin (R). State Rep. Jack McFarland (R) “won’t rule it out.”

Other names for the Great Mentioner include ex-US Reps. Garrett Graves (R), who was redistricted out in 2024 but has represented a large chunk of this seat, and Ralph Abraham (R), who retired from this seat in 2020 but has stayed politically active and now serves as a mid-level Trump administration official in the CDC. State officials in this seat are Insurance Commissioner Tim Temple (R) and PSC member Mike Francis (R); both could have self-funding ability. Baton Rouge Mayor Sid Edwards (R) could also be a formidable contender if he ran. Other legislators in the seat include State Sens. Beth Mizell (R), Franklin Foil (R), Eddie Lambert (R), Glen Womack (R), and Jay Morris (R) (the latter of whom lost a run for this seat in 2013). There are also about a dozen other State Reps here; one name worth a mention is State Rep. Neil Riser (R), who lost the 2013 special election for this seat in an R-on-R runoff. There are also a number of GOP officials in the North Shore region that could easily carpetbag. From the prior candidate file, ex-State Rep. and 2020 candidate Lance Harris (R), 2023 gubernatorial candidate Stephen Waugespack (R), ex-State Treasurer John Schroder (R), and ex-State House Speaker Clay Schexnayder (R) live in this district or close enough to carpetbag. Though none of this year’s also-ran Senate candidates live here, most of them live within a reasonable carpetbagging distance and some of them (particularly Fleming, who represented the adjacent LA-4 from 2008 to 2016) might be tempted to switch here.

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Political Roundup for January 20, 2026

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Roundups

First today, there are two special elections today, a Louisiana Rules Top Two race in Georgia and a general in Virginia.
GA-SD-18 is an R+12 seat covering western Macon, western Warner Robins, and some rural areas to the west around Forsyth, Thomaston, and Fort Valley. 6 candidates are facing off. The lone Democrat, farmer and ex-Fort Valley (pop. 9K) councilman Lemario Brown (D), is basically certain to come in first, as 5 Republicans are also in the race. Ex-State Rep. Lauren Daniel (R) narrowly won a purple seat in 2022 around McDonough in Atlanta’s southeast exurbs, well outside of this district, before narrowly being ousted in her re-election primary in 2024 and carpetbagging to this area. Forsyth (pop. 4K) Mayor Eric Wilson (R) is an ambulance company executive who has served 6 years as Mayor of the rural town. 2002 State Senate candidate Nathan Warnock (R) lost 2 primaries for State Senate in suburban Atlanta, taking 4% and 11% in the special and regular primary that year. First time candidates in the race are attorney and farmer Steven McNeel (R) and retiree Eugene Allison (R). Overall, a runoff is likely between Brown and one of the Republicans, though Brown could even have a small chance to win in a single round if Democrats are energized and Republicans are caught napping. Daniel, Wilson, and McNeel seem to be the serious Republicans, and any of the 3 could advance to a runoff with Brown. This seat is likely to stay in GOP hands in a runoff, but might be on the edge of being competitive if Democrats perform at the high end of their recent advantage in low-turnout specials.
VA-LD-17 is a White-plurality D+22 seat covering the Franconia and Huntington areas of Fairfax County, immediately south of Alexandria and southeast of the Mixing Bowl. Nonprofit exec Garrett McGuire (D) should be a prohibitive favorite over GOP operative Christopher Cardiff (R).

Now today’s news:

Senate:

AK-Sen: An Ivan Moore poll has ex-Rep. Mary Peltola (D) leading US Sen. Dan Sullivan (R) 48-46.

DE-Sen: Veteran John Shulli (R) is the first notable Republican into the uphill race to take on incumbent Sen. Chris Coons (D). Civil servant Christopher Beardsley (D) is challenging Coons in the primary.

KY-Sen: An internal poll from OnMessage (R) for a PAC backing ex-AG Daniel Cameron (R) has Cameron leading the primary to succeed retiring Sen. Mitch McConnell (R). Cameron takes 40%, to 25% for Rep. Andy Barr (R) and 13% for businessman Nate Morris (R). Democrats have a crowded primary field including 2022 nominee Amy McGrath (D), 2022 nominee Charles Booker (D), and State Rep. Pam Stevenson (D).

MI-Sen: Glengariff for the Detroit News has a poll with a competitive race in the contest to succeed retiring Sen. Gary Peters (D) – and on balance a very good result set for the likely GOP nominee, ex-Rep. and 2024 nominee Mike Rogers (R). Rogers ties Rep. Haley Stevens (D) 44-44, while he leads State Sen. Mallory McMorrow (D) 46-42 and 2018 gubernatorial candidate Abdul El-Sayed (D) 48-42.

WY-Sen: Continuing the quick GOP consolidation around Rep. Harriet Hageman (R) in her bid to move up to the Senate, both of the state’s sitting Senators, retiring Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R) and Sen. John Barrasso (R), have endorsed Hageman.

Governor:

AL-Gov: 2022 candidate Chig Martin (D), a hemp businessman who took 6% in the primary 4 years ago, will mount another run for Governor this cycle. Martin is likely to be an underdog to ex-US Sen. Doug Jones (D) in the Democratic primary to succeed termed-out Gov. Kay Ivey (R). US Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R) is the likely GOP nominee.

AK-Gov, AK-LG: Ex-Anchorage Mayor Dave Bronson (R) has chosen little-known financial advisor Josh Church (R) as his LG running mate. 10 Republicans are in the race to succeed termed-out Gov. Mike Dunleavy (R); Bronson is the second after businesswoman Bernadette Wilson (R) to announce a running mate. State Sen. Matt Claman (D) and ex-State Sen. Tom Begich (D) are in the race for Democrats.

CA-Gov, LAX-Mayor: 2022 LA Mayoral candidate and developer Rick Caruso (D) announced he would not run for any office in 2026, ruling out a run to succeed retiring Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) or a rematch with Los Angeles mayor Karen Bass (D). In the overcrowded gubernatorial race, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan (D) is considering a late entry. Mahan remains little-known statewide, but may have an ideological lane as an upscale relative moderate. Around 8 major Democrats are in the race, along with Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco (R) and former UK parliament aide Steve Hilton (R).

FL-Gov: Mason Dixon has polling of both primaries to succeed termed-out Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). On the GOP side, Rep. Byron Donalds (R) takes 37%, LG Jay Collins (R) is at 7%, ex-State House Speaker Paul Renner (R) is at 4%, and investor James Fishback (R) is at 3%. For Dems, ex-Rep. David Jolly (R=>D) leads Orange CE Jerry Demings 23%-19%.

KS-Gov: An internal poll for State Sen. Cindy Holscher (D) from PPP (D) has her leading fellow State Sen. Ethan Corson (D) 33-9 in the primary to succeed termed-out Gov. Laura Kelly (D). Corson has so far led Holscher in fundraising and establishment support. Republicans have a crowded primary field for the race.

MD-Gov: A Gonzales Poll has Gov. Wes Moore (D) leading a generic Republican 50-28 for re-election and posting a positive 51-41 approval rating, though his approvals have trended downward through his term. Bank executive Ed Hale (R) and 2024 US Senate candidate John Myrick (R) are in the race to take on Moore, but State Sen. Steve Hershey (R) and State Rep. Christopher Bouchat (R) are exploring, and ex-Gov. Larry Hogan (R) has also been rumored to be interested in a comeback bid.

MI-Gov: 4 former employees have filed a lawsuit against SoS Jocelyn Benson (D), claiming that her department had a discriminatory environment against Black workers. The department had previously settled a lawsuit by another former Black staffer with a $775K payout. Meanwhile, a Glengariff Poll for the Detroit News has Benson, the front-runner for the Democratic nomination to succeed termed out Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D), trailing GOP front-runner Rep. John James (R) 34-32, with ex-Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan (I/D) at 26%.

SC-Gov: The House Ethics Committee has announced that Rep. and gubernatorial candidate Nancy Mace (R) is under investigation for an undisclosed issue. In the race to succeed termed-out Gov. Henry McMaster (R), Mace released an internal poll from Stratus Intelligence (R) that has her leading the crowded GOP primary with 23%. AG Alan Wilson (R) takes 19% and would advance to a runoff, while LG Pamela Evette (R) takes 14% and Rep. Ralph Norman (R) takes 11%. The poll does not seem to have tested the long-shot fifth candidate, State Sen. Josh Kimbrell (R). Amusingly, the poll also has favorability ratings – and shows Mace as the only candidate of the 4 with a net negative favorability, at (-10) compared to between (+10) and (+15) for her rivals.

TX-Gov: Gov. Greg Abbott (R) has a truly insane $106M warchest for re-election as he seeks a fourth term, including raising $23M in Q4 of 2025. State Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D), the front-runner for the Democratic nomination against Abbott, brought in $1.3M in Q4.

WY-Gov: Ex-Spokane County, Washington Sheriff Ozzie Knezovich (R) aborted his run for Wyoming Governor after one day, admitting he does not meet residency requirements. Knezovich was still serving as Sheriff in Washington until 2022, meaning he verifiably can not meet the state’s 5-year residency requirements. State Superintendent Megan Degenfelder (R) and State Sen. Eric Barlow (R) are in the race to succeed termed out Gov. Mark Gordon (R), though several other candidates are considering.

House:

AL-2: 2024 candidate and attorney Hampton Harris (R) will mount a second bid for the congressional seat of Rep. Shomari Figures (D). Harris took 3% and fourth place last cycle in the primary for this light-blue Black-majority seat covering parts of Mobile, Montgomery, and the rural Black Belt region.

AK-AL: Commercial fisherman and construction worker Bill Hill (I/D) will run for Congress as a liberal Independent, and seems to have the connections to run a serious campaign. Rep. Nick Begich (R) is facing a challenge from pastor Matt Schultz (D) for re-election.

CA-11: State Rep. Matt Haney (D) will not run for Congress, instead fixing his sights on the seat of State Sen. Scott Wiener (D), which will be open either in a 2027 special or in 2028 when Wiener terms out. Wiener and businessman Saikat Chakrabarti (D) are to date the major candidates in the race to succeed retiring Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D) in this deep-blue seat covering most of San Francisco.

FL-2: Ex-Rep. Gwen Graham (D) is considering a comeback bid to succeed retiring Rep. Neal Dunn (R) in this medium-red seat covering the Panama City and Tallahassee areas and the rural central part of the Panhandle. Graham won this seat in 2014 but lost re-election in 2016 after a Dem-backed courtmander made the seat more Republican. On the GOP side, State GOP chair Evan Power (R) and 2024 US Senate candidate Keith Gross (R) are in the race, while State Rep. Jason Shoaf (R) ruled out a bid last week.

GA-14: 22 candidates, including 17 Republicans and 3 Democrats, have officially qualified in the March Louisiana Rules Top Two race to succeed ex-Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R) in this deep-red northwest Georgia seat.

IL-9: Local Dem official Bruce Leon (D) has dropped his bid to succeed Rep. Jan Schakowsky (D) in the absurdly crowded primary for this deep-blue seat based in Chicago’s inner northern suburbs. Leon had been under pressure from establishment liberal forces, including AIPAC, to drop out to reduce the number of more moderate candidates in the field. However, Leon endorsed former FBI agent Phil Andrew (D) with his exit, instead of the candidate the groups were trying to get him to consolidate behind, State Sen. Laura Fine (D). Establishment liberal and pro-Israel groups have raised alarm about the race; both of the presumed front-runners, State Sen. Daniel Biss (D) and professional left-wing activist Kat Abugazaleh (D), are staunch progressives and largely anti-Israel. There are still around a dozen credible Dems running.

KY-4: Little-known candidate Robert Wells (R) has dropped his bid for this conservative seat covering the Cincinnati suburbs and the northern part of Kentucky. The move leaves the primary race a one-on-one contest between maverick Rep. Thomas Massie (R) and his Trump-backed challenger, 2024 State Senate candidate and veteran Ed Gallrein (R).

MA-4: 2020 candidate Ihssane Leckey (D), a former Wall Street regulator who took fifth place and 11% in the open-seat primary 6 years ago, is considering a rematch with now-Rep. Jake Auchincloss (D). The progressive Leckey could get to the left of the establishment liberal Auchincloss in this deep-blue seat, stretching from Brookline and Newton in the inner Boston suburbs through the southwest suburbs to Fall River. Bristol County Sheriff Paul Heroux (D) has also been speculated as having interest in a primary bid against Auchincloss.

NJ-8: Sen. Andy Kim (D) has endorsed Rep. Rob Menendez (D) for re-election in his deep-blue Jersey City based seat. Kim had quietly worked for Menendez’s 2024 primary challenger, then-Hoboken Mayor (and now-State Rep.) Ravi Bhalla (D).

NY-7: Retiring Rep. Nydia Velazquez (D) has endorsed Brooklyn BP Antonio Reynoso (D), a non-Socialist progressive, as her successor in this deep-blue seat covering northern Brooklyn and Western Queens. In doing so, she leveled a shot directly at NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani (D), who has endorsed Socialist State Rep. Claire Valdez (D) for the seat.

NY-10: The progressive (semi-) pro-Israel group J Street has split the baby in the race for this deep-blue Lower Manhattan and northwest Brooklyn seat, endorsing establishment liberal Rep. Dan Goldman (D), but saying they “approve” of his progressive challenger, ex-NYC Comptroller Brad Lander (D). The move allows Lander to receive donations through the J Street platform.

NY-12: Professional gun-control activist and podcaster Cameron Kasky (D) is dropping his bid in the crowded primary to succeed retiring Rep. Jerry Nadler (D) in this deep-blue Manhattan seat. Democrats still have a crowded field, including State Reps. Micah Lasher (D) and Alex Bores (D), attorney and anti-Trump talking head George Conway (D), and Heir Foce Gen. Jack Schlossberg (D), among many others.

OH-7: Brook Park (pop. 20K) councilman Brian Poindexter (D) will join the Democratic primary to take on Rep. Max Miller (R) in this medium-red seat covering most of Cleveland’s western suburbs. Poindexter joins ex-Cuyahoga CE Ed Fitzgerald (D), school board member Scott Schultz (D), and attorney Michael Eisner (D) in the primary to take on Miller.

OH-10: Nurse practitioner and veteran Kristina Knickerbocker (D) will run for Congress. Knickerbocker is the first notable Democrat into the race to take on Rep. Mike Turner (R) in this medium-red seat covering most of metro Dayton.

OH-13: Leetonia Mayor Kevin Siembida (R) will carpetbag to run for Congress. Siembida is a businessman who owns a construction company and serves as Mayor of the Youngstown-area town of 2K, far outside this light-blue Akron and Canton area seat. He is the only notable Republican to date into the race against Rep. Emilia Sykes (D), whose seat was marginally protected for Democrats as part of a redistricting compromise.

VA-1: Tech exec Lisa Verdinovka Khanna (D) is dropping out of the race to take on Rep. Rob Wittman (R). Henrico County DA Shannon Taylor (D) is generally seen as the establishment favorite and clear front-runner in the crowded Dem primary. This currently light-red seat covering most of the Richmond suburbs and the rural northeast part of the state may become more Democratic leaning in re-redistricting.

State Offices:

AL-Agri: Ex-Alabama Agriculture Commissioner Ron Sparks (D) is officially seeking a comeback to the post he held from 2002 until an unsuccessful run for Governor in 2010. Incumbent Rick Pate (R) is termed out and running for LG, while Republicans have a primary between State Sen. Jack Williams (R), farmer and ex-Orange Beach councilwoman Christina Woerner McInnis (R), and Douglas Mayor Corey Hill (R). 

AL-Aud: Madison County commissioner Violet Edwards (D) will run for State Auditor, giving Alabama Democrats a surprisingly credible candidate in the uphill race. Incumbent Andrew Sorrell (R) is facing primary challenges from attorney Derek Chen (R) and gubernatorial staffer Josh Pendergrass (R).

DE-Treas: Financial advisor Ted Lauzen (D) will run for Delaware State Treasurer. Lauzen is a cross-party and cross-state Heir Force member, as his father Chris (R) currently serves as the Republican elected County Treasurer in Kane County, Illinois, in Chicago’s western exurbs. Chris Lauzen also previously served in the Illinois State Senate from 1992 to 2012 and as Kane CE from 2012 to 2020. Ted Lauzen joins 2024 State House candidate Michael A. Smith (D) in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Treasurer Colleen Davis (D).

IA-Agri: Farmer Wade Dooley (D) will run for Iowa Agriculture Commissioner. Dooley joins nonprofit exec Chris Jones (D) in the primary to take on incumbent Mike Naig (R).

VT-LG: Congressional staffer Ryan McLaren (D), who served a decade as a top aide to Sen. Peter Welch (D), will run for Vermont Lieutenant Governor. The move sets up a Democratic primary with ex-LG Molly Gray (D) for the right to take on incumbent John Rodgers (R).

WI-SoS: 2024 State Senate nominee Collin McNamara (D) is dropping his bid for Wisconsin’s nearly-powerless Secretary of State post. The move leaves Milwaukee councilwoman and ex-State Rep. Jocasta Zamarripa (D) as the lone candidate in the race to succeed LG candidate Sarah Godlewski (D) in the post, whose duties are best described as being similar to a low-level file clerk.

MI-SD-35: Elected state school board member Pamela Pugh (D) is denying accusations that she teamed up with a conservative group to file campaign finance complaints against one of her primary rivals, saying that she and the conservative group independently found the same issue improper. One of Pugh’s rivals in this spring’s special election, legislative staffer and former firefighter Chedrick Greene (D), is alleged to have violated campaign finance laws with advertisements showing the candidate in a Saginaw fire station. The Greene campaign has said it consulted Saginaw officials to ensure that its use of the fire station complied with the law. Both primaries next month and the May general election for this purple seat, covering most of the Saginaw-Bay City-Midland metro area, are expected to be hotly contested.

Local Offices:

DC-Mayor: Councilman Kenyan McDuffie (I/D=>D), who served on the council as a nominal Independent to skirt the city’s minority-party-representation rules, has officially rejoined the Democratic party and launched his expected bid for Mayor. McDuffie is seen as likely to be the main establishment liberal candidate in the race to succeed retiring Mayor Muriel Bowser, against far-left councilwoman Janeese Lewis George (D).

Indianapolis-Mayor: In a widely expected move, Councilman Vop Osili (D) will run for Mayor of Indianapolis when the seat is up in fall 2027. Incumbent Joe Hogsett (D) has not declared if he will seek a fourth term.

St. Louis, MO-CE: County Assessor Jake Zimmerman (D) will run for St. Louis County Executive, joining State Sen. Brian Williams (D) in the Democratic primary. County Commissioner Dennis Hancock (R) is in the race for Republicans. Indicted incumbent Sam Page (D) is not running for re-election to lead the liberal-leaning county of 1M covering most of St. Louis’s Missouri suburbs but not the city proper.

International:

South Korea: Ex-President Yoon Suk Yeol has been sentenced to 5 years in prison for plotting an auto-coup at the end of 2024. Prosecutors are seeking the death penalty against Yoon for insurrection in a separate trial, with a verdict in that case expected next month; Yoon is facing a total of 8 separate trials.

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Weekend Open Thread for January 16-19, 2026

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Weekend Open Thread

Happy Friday! We will be taking a day off Roundups Monday for MLK Day; regular Roundups will be back on Tuesday.

This week marked the 15th anniversary of the full launch of this website, including the first election-night coverage we ever ran. In true RRH fashion, that race was for…President of the New Castle County Council in Delaware. A lot has changed in 15 years, but we proudly haven’t.

Fifteen years means we’ve posted 780 weekend open threads, each posing questions to you. And at this point, we’re perhaps understandably running short on new questions to ask. So this week’s question is:

What would make for good conversation-starting questions for future weekends? (We’ll keep a list and use the best ones.)

And because it’s the weekend, here’s a playlist to soak up the 2011 vibes.

Political Roundup for January 16, 2026

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Roundups

Congress:

TX-Sen: Emerson polled the Lone Star State’s Senate race with H2H GE matchups and respective partisan primaries. In the contested GOP primary, TX AG Ken Paxton (R) nominally leads the Republican pack by a single point with 27%, followed closely behind by incumbent Sen. John Cornyn (R) at 26%, and Rep. Wesley Hunt (R) is at 16%. 2% of poll respondents support “other” and 29% remain undecided. In the Democratic primary. state Rep. James Talarico (D) leads Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D) 47%-38% with 15% undecided. In GE matchups, Cornyn leads Talarico 47%-44%, Paxton and Talarico are tied at 46% a piece, and Hunt also leads Talarico 47%-44%. Cornyn leads Crockett 48%-43%, Paxton and Crockett are tied at 46% a piece, and Hunt leads Crockett 48-43%.

IL-Sen: An internal GBAO poll for Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi’s (D) Senate campaign has him way ahead of IL Lt. Gov. Julianna Stratton (D), and Rep. Robin Kelly (D) 41%-16%-15%, respectively. 29% of poll respondents are undecided. This polling result is not at all surprising given Krishnamoorthi’s domination of the airwaves thus far.

MT-Sen: University of Montana President Seth Bodnar (I) is planning to run as a faux Independent in the spirit of Dan Osborn’s Senate campaign in Nebraska. Bodnar is running with the support of ex-Sen. Jon Tester (D).

OH-9: ICE Deputy Director Madison Sheahan (R) has resigned in order to challenge longtime incumbent Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D) in this northwestern Ohio district. Sheahan previously served as the secretary of the Louisiana Department of Wildlife and Fisheries and was a former political director for Kristi Noem before joining the federal government. She also led Trump’s 2020 re-election effort in the Buckeye State.

NJ-12: Former U.S. Army combat surgeon Adam Hamawy (D), who saved Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s (D) life, will run for Congress to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D). This open primary has become a bit of a free-for-all for Democrats with nearly a dozen Democrats now running. In that vein, Sue Altman (D), a former NJ-7 Congressional candidate and now a top staffer to Senator Andy Kim (D), is considering carpetbagging into this open seat.

State & Local Offices:

TX-Gov: Emerson also polled the Texas gubernatorial race and found incumbent Gov. Greg Abbott (R) leading state Rep. Gina Hinojosa (D) 50%-42%.

OH-Aud: Maple Heights Mayor (Cleveland suburb, pop. 23K) Annette Blackwell (D) is running for Ohio Auditor. Current State Auditor Keith Faber (R) is termed out and running for OH-AG. OH-SoS Frank LaRose (R) is running here to succeed Faber.

WV-Leg: State Sen. Donna Boley (R), age 90 and first appointed to her seat in the West Virginia Senate in 1985, submitted her letter of resignation last week. In 1991 and 1992, she was the only Republican in the 34-member State Senate, making her the minority chairwoman for all Senate committees. She is the longest serving state senator in West Virginia history.

International:

UK-Reform: Robert Jenrick, the ex-shadow justice secretary, has joined Reform UK after being sacked by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch for “plotting to defect.”

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Political Roundup for January 15, 2026

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Roundups

House:

CA-1: State Assemb. James Gallagher (R) has announced he will run in the upcoming special election to replace the late Rep. Doug LaMalfa (R). Gallagher is the first candidate to announce plans to run, and is running with the support of LaMalfa’s widow, Jill.

FL-2: Two candidates have already entered the race for this now-open seat a day after Rep. Neal Dunn (R) announced his retirement. State Republican Party Chair Evan Power (R) filed yesterday to run. Also filing to run is businessman and former congressional and Senate candidate Keith Gross (R). Gross took 9% in a primary challenge to Sen. Rick Scott (R) in 2024 and briefly ran in last year’s FL-1 special election, but dropped out after President Trump endorsed Jimmy Patronis (R).

IN-5: State Sen. J.D. Ford (D) has announced plans to run for Congress against Rep. Victoria Spartz (R).

NJ-12: Mercer County Clerk Paula Sollami Covello (D) has decided against running in the Democratic primary to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman (D). Sollami Covello also considered running for NJ-3 in 2024, but did not run. A crowded Democratic primary has more than 10 candidates running.

TX-34: Businessman Scott Mandel (R) is the second candidate to leave the Republican primary this week in favor of Trump-endorsed Army veteran Eric Flores (R). Fred Hinojosa (R) also left the race this week and endorsed Flores. Ex-Rep. Mayra Flores (R) and several other candidates are still running in the Republican primary.

WY-AL: Former State School Superintendent Jillian Balow (R) is the third candidate in the race for this open seat. Balow served as Superintendent from 2015-2022, leaving to take the same position in Virginia as an appointee of Gov. Glenn Youngkin (R). She resigned from the position 14 months into the job after a budgeting error led to a $201 million shortfall in the department. She joins Sec. of State Chuck Gray (R) and businessman and former Senate candidate Reid Rasner (R) in the race. Rep. Harriet Hageman (R) is running for US Senate.

Governor:

CT-Gov: Former New York LG Betsy McCaughey (R) has announced a run for governor in neighboring Connecticut. McCaughey, who served as LG from 1995-1998 under Gov. George Pataki (R) has had an unusual political history as a rare double party switcher. After Pataki announced in 1997 that he would drop her as his running mate in 1998, she switched parties and announced plans to run against Pataki as a Democrat. Initially the frontrunner in the primary, she eventually finished a distant second. She returned to the Republican Party in 2010. Also of note, during her time as LG and her campaign for governor of New York, she was known as Betsy McCaughey Ross, being married at the time to future 1st Trump Administration Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross. She joins state Sen. Ryan Fazio (R) and former New Britain Mayor Erin Stewart (R) in the Republican primary. Ex-state Rep. Harry Arora (R) also announced he is exploring a run. Gov. Ned Lamont (D) faces state Rep. Josh Elliott (D) in the Democratic primary in his bid for a third term.

SD-Gov: A second independent has announced plans to run for governor. Retired Air Force veteran Scott Morris is running and needs 3,502 signatures to get on the ballot. Lakota activist and former legislative candidate Allison Renville is also running an independent campaign. 70s and 80s era ex-Sioux Falls Mayor Rick Knobe also considered an independent campaign but decided not to run. In a sign of how bad the Democratic Party brand is in a state that has not elected a Democrat for governor since 1974, while there are multiple independent candidacies, the only Democrat currently running is little-known college student Robert Arnold (D). Gov. Larry Rhoden (R) faces Rep. Dusty Johnson (R), state House Speaker Jon Hansen (R) and businessman Toby Doeden (R) in the Republican primary.

WY-Gov: In today’s second “elected official from one state announces run for governor in another state” story, former Spokane County, WA Sheriff Ozzie Knezovich (R) has announced plans to run for governor in Wyoming. Knezovich served as sheriff from 2006-2022 and returned to his native Wyoming after leaving office. He has since served as chief of police in the small town of Superior east of Rock Springs and was elected to the Wyoming Community College Board of Trustees. There may be a problem with his potential candidacy however as the state Constitution says that candidates must be a resident of the state for 5 years before running for governor. When a reporter pointed this out, he first said “I’ll be back in 2030” and then said that he would check with an attorney because he has owned property in the state for 10 years. If he is able to run, he would face State School Superintendent Megan Degenfelder (R) and state Sen. Eric Barlow (R) in the Republican primary.

States:

CA-AG: Former Huntington Beach city attorney Michael Gates (R) is the first Republican to announce plans to run for Attorney General. Gates has been a prominent critic of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) and fought the state on several issues while defending local ordinances. He left his city attorney job last year to serve in the US Justice Department’s Civil Rights Division, a job which he left in November. Gates is currently the only candidate running against AG Rob Bonta (D).

NE-SD-41: State Sen. Dan McKeon (R) announced his resignation on the floor of the Legislature on Tuesday, just before debate was set to begin on a resolution to expel him over an inappropriate comment and gesture he made towards a legislative staffer last year. The expulsion vote was likely to have succeeded, which would have made him the first member of the Legislature to have been expelled. Gov. Jim Pillen (R) moved swiftly to fill the vacancy and yesterday appointed McKeon’s predecessor Fred Meyer (R) to fill the seat. Pillen had previously appointed Meyer to the seat in 2023 to fill a vacancy created when he appointed then state Sen. Tom Briese (R) as State Treasurer. Meyer did not run for the full term in 2024.

RIP: Former Arizona AG Mark Brnovich (R) has died at the age of 59. Brnovich served two terms as AG from 2015-2023. He also made an unsuccessful run for the Republican nomination for US Senate in 2022. He was nominated last year by President Trump to be Ambassador to Serbia, but the nomination was later withdrawn.

International:

Canada: Quebec Premier Francois Legault announced his resignation yesterday. Legault, who became Premier in 2018 and was reelected in 2022 has seen his CAQ(Coalition Avenir Quebec) party plunge in polls leading up to a provincial election due sometime this year. The separatist Parti Quebecois has a large lead in polls and is expected to win. PQ leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon has pledged to hold another referendum on independence from Canada if the party wins. The last referendum in 1995 failed by just over 1%.

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