Conditional probability: an educational defect in Physics didactics
Conditional probability is something physicists have a hard time with. There are a number of reasons I know this is true. Primarily I know it is true from my own experience: I had a high-middling to excellent didactics experience in physics, and was basically never exposed to the idea. When I got out into the “real world” of, say, calculating probable ad impressions this concept became of towering importance. It took me a while to grasp it, and I still occasionally struggle with the idea, but it’s actually pretty simple.
What is the probability a man is over 6′ tall? Well, in the US, you look at the normal distribution and find it’s about 14%. If you know both his parents are 6′ tall, the number is higher. If both his parents are 5′ tall, the number is lower. That’s a practical example of conditional probability. Making it super concrete, imagine you have a deck of cards. Probability of drawing an ace is 4/52. Probability of drawing an ace if (conditionally) 10 cards have been drawn with no aces is 4/42. Probability of drawing an ace if you pulled 10 cards and two of them are aces (conditionally) is 2/42. You can do it with urns or dice or whatever; make yourself happy with your favorite example.
Statistical mechanics seems like this is where you should learn such things in physics, since we have no independent probability theory classes. I looked in Reif and Ma, the two books I learned statistical mechanics from. Reif doesn’t have the concept in the index, though it mentions Markoff and Fokker-Planck (he does mention conditional probability here). Ma only mentions it to argue that he doesn’t need it to teach statistical mechanics (later bringing it back in various places in a sort of ad-hoc way: I shouldn’t have slept in so much in that class). Ma even manages to avoid mentioning conditional probability in his treatment of Fokker-Planck, a considerable intellectual achievement for a set of equations for calculation of a conditional probability. As such, most physicists end up thinking of probabilities as funny sorts of ratios that must add up to one, which is right for a lot of cases in physics, but which is not correct in the general sense. Most of the classical statistical physics done with canonical ensembles (aka most of it) assume we can ignore conditional probability. Stuff like non-equilibrium thermodynamics is going to contain a lot of conditional probability, since it is dynamic and one-way in the same sense as the above card game. Our one example of a non-equilibrium thermodynamic relation which rises to the level of a law, the Onsager relations, certainly uses conditional probability, though Onsager himself never mentions it explicitly. The fact that he never uses the words, nor are they used in didactic explanations probably keeps physicists from having a good think about the implications of conditional probability in this and in other places. Out of sight, out of mind.
There are more pedestrian examples of physicists missing out on conditional probability; I’ll list a couple below:
Jung/Pauli synchronicity. When I was a young pot smoking man, I read with great interest a book on the correspondence between Jung and Wolfgang Pauli on the subject of synchronicity. If you’re unfamiliar with the topic, the following clip from Repo Man explains it well; lots of weird coincidences happen, and our brains ascribe meaning to them. Feels a lot like psychic powers or something. The reality is, the otherwise incredibly meticulous Pauli didn’t know enough about conditional probability, even to the level of understanding the trivial Birthday Paradox. It’s all conditional probability: it’s only surprising because our brains don’t intuitively grasp how conditional probability works. The brain observes many things in a short period of time; if some of them happen to overlap in a conditional way over a human consciousness tier period of time (minutes, hours, a day or two), the brain flags it as something significant, even when it’s entirely expected, like a group of 23 people being 50% likely to have a shared birthday. Pauli is a lot smarter than me; arguably smarter than any living current year physicist whose name isn’t Roger Penrose, yet he missed this obvious thing. Probably because his life was a mess and he was drinking too much, but also because he was probably never exposed to the idea in school or anyplace else.
Fermi Paradox is a case where a Nobel prize winning physicist kind of left out important conditional probability aspects of a model. As we all know it is a calculation of there being other forms of intelligent life in the universe based on approximated probabilities. The Drake Equation lists number of stars in the universe, approximate probability of a planet in the habitable zone, age of solar systems, probability of life, intelligent life, civilizations, civilizations with space travel, etc. In the end he sums things up by multiplying all the numbers together, and comes to the conclusion that there must be intelligent life which we should be able to observe or which have visited us, or there are hidden and depressing dangers which wiped out all these space faring alien cultures. If you look carefully at what he did, you might never notice he didn’t use any conditional probability. Probably he elided over some important conditional probability. For example, most species go extinct in a way that fits the Survival model; there’s no reason to think intelligent ones have any special advantages, and lots of reasons to think any sort of megafauna, intelligent or otherwise is going to be at least as likely as any other species of megafauna to go extinct over time. This is just one of the conditional probability factors at work here. Though maybe earths are just rare, or intelligent life is unlikely in conditions where they might discover electricity (aka aquatic life). Conditional probability isn’t necessarily the right tool here for a quick look at orders of magnitude, but it is conspicuous for its continued absence in a calculation which heavily implies it might be useful.

The thermodynamic arrow of time. The arrow of time is considered a root problem in physics. Microscopic classical physics, there is no obvious arrow of time. The equations work the same way backwards as forwards. Yet you can assemble the microscopic equations into large ensembles and get the very irreversible laws of thermodynamics. Watanabe wrote an important paper on this subject in 1965 where he noticed that we leave out the conditional probabilities when formulating the statistical mechanical ensembles we use to calculate things and derive thermodynamic relations which make things like steam engines possible. Watanabe’s paper is influential with people with good taste, but mostly has been ignored. Certainly ignored in didactics, and often disputed for reasons which remain obscure to me. Rovelli and friends for example (linked above) think it’s a bad argument for various fiddley reasons which make no sense to me, but the idea of using conditional probability to ascertain where the arrow of time is coming from seems obvious. Of course I don’t know how to do it; I’m a mere statistical dabbler. Physicists resist this with all their might; you can find otherwise obviously intelligent people saying, effectively, “it just isn’t, OK.”
My favorite potential example of this is ET Jaynes idea that the mysteries of quantum entanglement go away when you think about conditional probability. I like this one a lot. Mostly because it dispenses with all the psychic powers quantum mysticism that has sprung up around the ideas of quantum mechanics. Also because it dispenses with quantum computers, which are both obviously fake and retarded. But mostly because Jaynes is the patron saint of physicists who make the jump to data science, and so, was uniquely qualified to bring this sort of thing up. Data science people have to know all about conditional probability: that’s pretty much what they’re doing, all day, every day. If nothing else, the fact that the main engagement with this idea in the literature ends up agreeing with it, rather than deboonking it kind of indicates that the conditional probability is weak among physicists. That’s not to say Jaynes was right, but the lack of informed argument against it indicates a weakness in the topic of conditional probability. If indeed the ideas of Jaynes turn out to be true (I’m in no position to adjudicate), this example will be held up by some future Thomas Kuhn type of thinker to be a spectacular example of a field of very smart people deluding themselves with didactic deficiencies, mathematical ignorance and group-think. As Mencken put it:
The liberation of the human mind has never been furthered by such learned (pedant) dunderheads; it has been furthered by gay fellows who heaved dead cats into sanctuaries and then went roistering down the highways of the world, proving to all men that doubt, after all, was safe – that the god in the sanctuary was finite in his power and hence a fraud. One horse-laugh is worth ten thousand syllogisms. It is not only more effective; it is also vastly more intelligent.

As an aside, I found another contemporary researcher who seems to take the conditional probability approach to get rid of quantum woo. I haven’t read his papers in detail, but they seem to be thoughts along the same lines as Kracklauer and others mentioned in the previous article. It’s entirely possible that entanglement is exactly what Scott Aaronson thinks it is, but the fact that its one application is only useful for pumping up fraudulent penny stocks thus far, I mean, I dunno considering the above it wouldn’t surprise me if the big wrinkly brains got this one wrong.
I suppose statisticians also have a hard time with conditional probability with Simpson’s “paradox” being a prime example, and Berkson’s paradox being a less known one. Contemporary statistical practitioners aren’t supposed to be deep thinkers though, so they get a pass.
Optimizing for old battles
About 3/4 of our management expertocracy is optimizing for old battles. It’s a pattern which is pervasive in Western Civilization, which is one of the reasons everything is so weird right now. Gather together a group of bureaucrats to solve a real problem, it’s still there 50 years later doing …. things. Things which are probably not important or even helpful. New people get hired to work on new things, and the old fungoid bureaucracy is still there doing things which may or may not be helpful.
As an example, it is bizarre to me that people want to genetically engineer rice to produce vitamin-A. Also that USDA approved rice is required by law to be “fortified” with a bunch of crap nobody needs. Dealing with the latter: nobody in the US needs “fortification” in their goddamned rice or anything else. Most people in the US are over-provisioned with nutrients, and those who aren’t can take a goddamned vitamin pill. In particular, adding iron to rice is fucking insane. Men do not need iron in their diet. They get enough from meat, eggs or legumes that they eat. There’s reason to believe iron in particular in USDA fortificants is dangerous. It’s not something humans evolved to eat, and it’s not the same chemical as exists in actual food. The other shit: vitamin-A and some B vitamins: vitamin-A might also be …. suboptimal, and I don’t want that crap in my food. Wash your rice, fellow Americans. It removes some of the arsenic, but mostly it removes the slop the vendors are required to add to the rice. Genetically engineering rice to produce vitamin-A; what could go wrong? Considering recent track record of “muh scientists” it seems like a lot could go wrong. These substances were added to rice and flour back in the day because people didn’t eat much of anything else. It’s an 80 year old health intervention; literally something we did in WW-2 to help the soldiers and imposed on the colonies afterwords. Can we revisit this idea? I don’t think it’s helping, and it might be hurting people.

Folic acid is another, possibly even more alarming nutritional example. The US government mandates (since 1998) it be put in stuff like cereal and bread. The idea is to prevent folate deficiency, which can cause neurological issues, especially in infants; folate deficiencies can cause neural tube defects in infants, a rare and awful condition. The problem is folic acid and folate are different substances, and they behave differently in the human body. Folic acid does not exist in nature, at all; only in the test tube and in “fortified” american grains. It’s so different from natural folates, it is used to induce kidney damage in animal experiments. Folic acid needs to be metabolized in the body into folate, and one can develop actual antibodies against it, which causes problems with the folate receptor. Autistic kids have a lot of these antibodies fiddling with their folate receptors. This supplement came about because of experiments on rats, who process folic acid differently from humans. A fact which wasn’t figured out until 2009, 11 years after the mandates (which have spread worldwide). It was seen as a harmless addition which was an unambiguous public health win, but nobody has bothered thinking about whether there might be problems with this chemical, despite all the behavioral and health problems that have sprung up since the stuff was mandated in the food supply. This isn’t something I’ve fully figured out, and I wouldn’t stake my life on the idea, but it looks like it could be bad and it is unambiguously clear that the public health organizations are determined to put this bullshit in everyone’s flour, with no thought for whether this might actually be harming more people than it helps. Concerned citizen scientists have a website you can look at. There’s also a video including Covid Grandpa which made me aware of it.
Cholesterol: there is a fairly strong correlation between heart disease and high levels of LDL cholesterol. Unfortunately, there is also a fairly strong correlation between long life and high levels of LDL cholesterol when the patient is older. What means? The standard doctor thing is cholesterol bad, giving a number of interventions which may or may not marginally increase lifespan, while having terrible side effects. They tried another intervention recently: crispr gene therapy to reduce cholesterol. That one is unambiguously bad; one of the participants in the trial died already. The reality is, various bureaucrats have decided cholesterol bad, and are managing the number. Actual scientists driven by truth-seeking are still puzzled by this correlation, and notice other things are better predictors of cardiovascular disease. For example, the ratio of HDL to triglycerides; lots of HDL is good, lots of triglycerides is bad. Most people with high LDL have a lot of triglycerides because they’re sustained on a diet of sugar and grease, so this correlation could be measuring the same thing. I sometimes have high LDL (mostly when doing something keto-like with low fiber, which is a known phenotype which also doesn’t have increased CVD risk), always high HDL and never high triglycerides. Also no heart disease in my family. Other scientists notice a particular kind of heart disease is anti-correlated with cholesterol. Also, dementia, which ought to be disturbing to anti-cholesterol bureaucrats, but somehow isn’t. Others notice CVD’s biggest risk factor is actually insulin resistance. There are other ideas; APO-B is another one which people take drugs to control. Same problem as LDL: you’re controlling a number correlated with a risk, not the risk. When you look at the risk after you control the number, not so much. Yet we still have imbeciles talking about putting statins in the goddamned water. All public health officials talking about putting anything in the food or water should be machine gunned into a ditch, and the remaining ones need to look at the current state of the research with some consequences (perhaps shipping them to El Salvador to aid with their public health problems) if they get it wrong. Of course this will never happen, as the unseeing bureaucracy is dedicated to number go down. The reality is, LDL is correlated with a whole bunch of other stuff, and the metabolic dysfunction that causes heart disease isn’t caused by the presence of LDL. They need to go find the discriminating factor here, and treat that. Dispensing statins to everybody isn’t useful.

Consider another example: pollution from cars. Particulates, unburned hydrocarbons, nitrogen dioxides, carbon monoxide: 60s cars were farting out some nasty shit (including lead vapor). You could kill yourself idling a car in the garage back in the day. Car exhaust is now pretty clean; even smoky diesels are now barely smoky. The bureaucracies continue to drive these numbers down: new US standards coming again in 2027, this despite car exhaust being quite breathable now (don’t try this at home). The relentless pressure to build more electric vehicles is also related to this. Meanwhile, tires and braking material leave obvious layers of dirt everyplace near cars being used. You breathe that shit; it’s not good. Car tires are probably the biggest source of microplastics in people’s lives. Braking material is basically asbestos (ceramic brakes are floated as a longer lasting alternative, but nobody knows if the dust they make is worse or better -there’s less of it anyway). If you live in a city in southern Europe you’re also surrounded by mopeds which have no emission laws associated with them: or if they do I don’t know how they manage to smell like 1960s era car exhaust. Yet, the car makers are required every couple of years to reduce their pollutant levels: they’re not doing anything about the big problem, but making everyone’s lives worse optimizing on the old problem.
Chemicals in the environment: I think it’s great we stopped pumping heavy metal and other chemical waste into rivers to make newspaper or whatever. This is a real achievement and has had tremendous long term health benefits. Unfortunately, other regulatory agencies allow companies to put nasty stuff in your clothes and on your skin; in food containers, on frying pans: they even require manufacturers to put “fire retardant” chemicals in your furniture and in children’s clothing. You can’t put it in the ground or in the water, but you have to put it in furniture and children’s clothing; mostly because of an old California law. This stuff is dangerous; it’s probably a big chunk of why men’s testoterone and sperm count has been declining. Back in the 70s when California dipshits forced manufacturers to start adding this crap to furniture, it probably seemed like a good idea. It’s not a good idea. Of course like all shitty ideas from California it’s now a federal standard: U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC) is in charge. Supposedly they’re investigating the flame retardants, but I’m not optimistic they’ll be removed from our lives. The bureaucracy is concerned with burning furniture, which as far as I can tell only happens when dipshits fall asleep smoking on flammable furniture. Why not just ban flammable furniture? You could dump hot coals on any of my furniture and pretty much nothing would happen: no weird chemicals needed.
These problems all have their origins in bureaucratic heat death. When bureaucracies were created, they were innovative and productive organizations. I know it’s hard to believe, but USDA, the FDA and the EPA were once as innovative and productive as early years NASA. Now … not so much. People have been complaining about PFUAs and stuff like fire retardants to the EPA for decades. But the squirreley numskulls who warm the chairs there are too busy doing the crap they’ve been doing since Nixon created them by fiat in 1970. Optimized for old battles. Most of which are already won.
Winter Q4 2025 books
The Kaufmann Protocol Sandra Kaufmann. I saw this lady on youtube somewhere, and she seemed half nuts, so I bought her book. Mostly it’s a rough explanation of some of the human biological system and a list of supplements that good for stuff that breaks down as you get older. It listed some things I didn’t know about, but weren’t very convincing anyway. Astaxanthin, carnosine, curcumin, green tea (EGCG) are all familiar and things I put in my gob on a regular basis. Apigenin, aka Chamomile tea perhaps was the most interesting thing she was touting. Quercetin: great for when you have a cold. Alpha lipoic acid is something I used to take regularly when I was bulking to avoid getting too fat: might be worth tossing in the supplement stack on occasion. A lot of longevity nuts take metformin, and ALA has similar effects without the side effects. I am not a fan of resveratrol; remember how this was a big thing a couple of years ago, then it went away? Pepperidge farms remembers. Anyway she’s big on this and I am not, so this made a lot of the other suggestions rather less interesting.
Plutarch’s Lives v2 (Dryden translation). I think I mentioned reading volume 1, but think I just said “read this book.” Either way I regret not writing notes about the individual lives. If you read Homer’s Competition you’ll get an idea of why you should, but you should probably just read Plutarch. Because I’m a foppish literary man, I have an ancient leather bound 3 volume set, the translation of which dates from 1683. I think Dryden has its charms, but probably you should read something else. Clough came maybe 70 years later and has a decent reputation. North was a generation earlier: Shakespeare’s Plutarch: probably best avoided as it was a translation of a bad French translation. People go into transports about the recent Penguin and Oxford translations. I’ve sampled the Penguin edition, which is incomplete. Both of these are broken down by Greek and Latin and leaves out the comparison passages, and the contrast of having the parallel lives one after the other, which kind of defeats the purpose of the book, though they contain extensive footnotes. Anyway, Pyrrhus: a very ferocious man, though a bit of a cypher. He was almost the next Alexander. He’s compared to Caius Marius, who was a very strange man from Rome. Plutarch’s reading of his life doesn’t differ much from Sallust’s accounts. He was very political; elected to the Consul position 7 times -more than anyone else up until then (I assume the Caesars may have beat him). He was also kind of a communist who ruined the country by allowing poor men into the army (BTW the Wiki page on Marian reforms claiming it never happened is horse shit: Plutarch talks about it for chrissakes). I don’t know why Plutarch compared these two men, as his comparison text didn’t make it to current year. Lysander was a great general of Sparta during the Peloponnesian war, probably most responsible for Spartan victory. He was master of the world, outside of Sparta, where jealous and lesser men who were kings treated him like a manservant. He set up fierce and nightmarish oligarchies of his friends in conquered cities; kept no war booty for himself -a man both corrupt and extremely honest and honorable. Sulla, rival of Marius was compared to him. Sulla’s the guy who broke the republic, using the weapon of poorfag soldiers loyal only to their commanders against Marius himself. Kind of funny he was on the Optimate side, but used Populares against themselves; poorfag Romans were apparently retards. It’s a bit of a chaotic history as Sulla was also fighting various foreign wars; Mithridates, Jugertha, etc. When he marched on Rome, he bathed it in rivers of blood, then retired to hang out with his actor and cross dresser frens, before dying of a horrible disease. They were compared by Plutarch as they were both self made men. Cimon of Athens; reputed to be a degenerate when he was younger, he grew to be a leader of high virtue and generosity, donating much of his wealth to the good of the state and dying relatively young in its service. Lucullus started out sober and later became more lavish in his indulgences as he got older, but also a skilled general and tireless worker for the good of Rome. Both men fought in the orient, and left their conquests unfinished, though for different reasons.
The Young Girls by Henry de Montherlant. Montherlant was in Ernst Junger’s circles during the Paris occupation; his pappy was so conservative he wouldn’t allow a telephone in the house. I basically picked the book because of this, and because wakipedia said it was the world’s most offensively misogynistic series of novels (all four novels were in this book). I was disappointed in this; it’s more like Dangerous Liaisons for sleazy 1920s novelists, except more psychologically astute for modern people. The protagonist is a womanizing writer, so many assume it is a stand-in for the author (it seems unlikely). There are four major “girls” in the story. One is an aging blue stocking from the provinces who writes insane obsessive letters to the protagonist, despite his insistence he just wants to be friends. Almost certainly an example taken in part from life; I’ve known women like this. Another is a religious woman from the provinces who seemingly confuses her religious ecstasies with an obsession with the protagonist (who politely suggests she join a nunnery, despite his being mostly atheistic in temperament). Their interaction with the protagonist is mostly epistolary; hence the comparison to Dangerous Liaisons. The other two: an empty headed beautiful bourgeois woman who takes up most of the drama, and his Moroccan mistress. This is a painful book in that a lot of it is ridiculously awkward and realistic, including the internal dialog of the protagonist. The protagonist is a cad, in a way any man who has had a sex life can uncomfortably relate to. He’s also kind of a narcissistic imbecile, but at least is hilariously misanthropic, which is more amusing in the scenes where he takes his women out on “dates” -his takes on the normies around him are hilarious. It’s a very impressive novel for its psychological depth and as a result, somewhat painful reading. I went and looked at what the dimwit Simone de Beauvoir said about all this in her Second Sex book; I thought she’d be triggered by the psychological nudism, but she simply didn’t get it. The entire essay is just her making hen-like outraged noises, and showing that she had at least thumbed through his books enough to name some of the characters (I don’t think she read any of his books to completion). Orange man bad! While the women don’t come off well in the thing, the male protagonist is … far from a hero or stand in for the author. Montherlant is obviously an aristocratic misanthrope. Everyone in it is vile, and everyone in it is a believable and ordinary human character: quite a neat trick to draw me through 650 pages of people being cringe.
A History of Venice by John Julius Norwich. I read this book about 30 years ago after my first visit to the Lagoon. I read it again at least once since then; it’s an eminently readable history book; like reading a novel or watching an engaging documentary. Anyway, it’s been 30 years and I visited again, so I figured I’d give it another go-through. La Serinissima had its origins in the Visigoth invasions of Italy: in many ways it was as much a continuation of the Roman Empire as Byzantium was. By 800 or so it was a regional power. Its story is a long litany of ambition and trade: one of the great things about the Venetians was their ability to combine trade with cunning and conquest. It was the archetype of the seagoing Merchant Republic, longer lived than Athens, and their system of government is probably the largest influence on the American system. This is a book that rewards the re-reads; I remember the problems with the council of 10 and various ad-hoc councils and their secret police during covid times. This read I was particularly struck at how quickly the decline of Venice happened. While they began the economic slide down with the Portuguese discovery of the Southern Passage around 1500, they were still conquering territory very late in the game in the 17th century in the Captain-General and Dogeship of Francesco Morosini (ending in 1694). This despite out of date naval technology, poor economic prospects compared to their glory days, but still punching well above their weight with skilled leadership and diplomacy, though their final leadership was completely worthless. For centuries they had been renting foreign shipping rather than developing modern armed merchant ships in the Arsenal as a thriving power would have. The leadership figured, after all, they were still making money (shades of the 90s deindustrialization of America) and enjoying the partying which became the national passtime. The leadership class at the end were almost as clown like as current year American leadership. Silvestro Valier who followed Morosini was still a wartime Doge, but he was elected mostly because he was rich and knew how to throw a good party. Others who followed him presided over territorial loss, scandals, and Mosque building in the city. One of the late Doges was a scholar-poet and fellow of the Royal Society and friend to Isaac Newton: admirable qualities, but not leadership qualities. This was the era of Casanova who probably embodied the degenerate morals of the era; adventures, scams, womanizing and partying preferred to mercantile conquest. The penultimate Doge was moderately competent and an actual noble, was married to a ridiculous Greek acrobat he met on a trade mission to Istanbul: something unimaginable in previous eras. The final Doge was a peasant (nobleman on paper through bribery in the previous century), and while not married to an acrobat (his wife was of appropriate station, though literally insane) and a reasonably competent administrator, he had the leadership skills of fermenting cabbage, and so when Bonaparte showed up in the 1790s, it was all over.
Armor Building Formula II by Dan John. He wrote another one while I was finishing the last one. Mostly this one is answering the numerous questions which come up on his podcast and in his coaching practice. Lots of good ideas for things to mix up with the ABC complex, also various ways of getting through it, programming it with other workouts, assistance workouts, using it for fat loss, using it 5x a week instead of 3x a week and so on. Also some interesting charts for what your max should be at various press weights; useful for buying a new kettlebell without too much guesswork. Worth it if you’re doing ABC complex training; dude gives a lot to the community, give him a few bucks. He rambles on a bit, but all of his insights are worthwhile.
The Victorian Amateur Astronomer by Alan Chapman. I know it’s hard to believe, but there was a time when science was not an elaborate welfare scheme for PhDs looking for government baksheesh. Oddly enough, people made a hell of a lot more technological and scientific progress when the government wasn’t paying for it. Chapman takes us from around 1820 to 1920 in Great Britain, where an odd assembly of landed gentlemen, beer brewers, street lecturers, gentleman astronomer’s gentlemen, iron mongers, blacksmiths and even humble working class people (and in one case a homeless bum who was pals with George Orwell) did a ton of important astronomical research and discovery, including innovations in optics. This was in the UK mind you, where it is cloudy and rainy most of the time, but the gentlemen amateurs still thought it was an activity worthy of devoting a lot of time and money to. FWIIW there were a few professional astronomers during this era; for example George Airy. Most of these guys relied on other incomes as well, also donations from well to do enthusiasts. The UK used to run a tight ship. Professional astronomy was also oriented towards navigation rather than discovery. The amateurs were generally the great discoverers of the era. It’s an interesting group of people; most interesting, almost unbelievable, were the working class people doing it as a hobby. British of the 19th century were a different species from the present inhabitants.
Titus Andronicus Shakespeare. I’ve seen the Anthony Hopkins movie like 10 times; very fun movie with excellent aesthetics. Everyone hates on this play, down to denying Shakespeare actually wrote such a stinker, mostly because it is ridiculously bloody and violent. This was a common and crowd pleasing genre of the time; more or less a Senecan tragedy. I found it a fun read, I think the right way to think about it is it’s like an Arnold action movie from the 80s. Popcorn Shakespeare. Better than most of the comedies anyway. Apparently he got the story from an old Latin collection of tall tales, the Gesta Romanorum which makes me curious about obtaining the book. Existing translations are a bit steep at 100 bucks where I live, so maybe I’ll hold off for learning Latin or digging up a used copy. Seems like Decameron or Arabian Knights collection of stories. Such things are often useful in decoding more recent cultural production (which often copies such old ideas wholesale).
A Short History of Naval and Marine Engineering by Eng. Capt. Edgar C. Smith, O.B.E., R.N. More or less a history of powered ships from their inception of steam ships to the 1920s or so. A lot of engineering autism involving boiler design, various kinds of prime movers, how they were supposed to be operated, substances used to lubricate them, coaling techniques, armor, tables of ship capabilities, cutaway diagrams. Lots of great diagrams. You can find it online somewhere: I did.
Letters from a Stoic Seneca. Reading this in preparation for reading a couple of Seneca’s plays, which heavily influenced Elizabethan playwrights. I’m broadly sympathetic to the stoicism of the ancients, but confess I find Seneca to be a moralizing twatwaffle about half the time. I haven’t actually finished, as a lot of it is so painful as to negate any of the good stuff.
Don’t go to physics grad school and other cautionary tales

Contra Professor Katz, I have known more people ruined by drugs. Mostly because I didn’t spend my life as a physics professor as he did. But I can see why he said it, because you’d see a lot of ruined lives in gradual school. It is an essay that should occur to people in light of the incidents at Brown and MIT. I reproduce Professor Katz famous essay in full below, since it seems to have been censored by his employers and otherwise fallen off the internet outside of archive links.
Higher education in general is now a glorified IQ test. Grad school is a harder IQ test. Unfortunately now that we send virtually everyone to college, the average IQ of a college graduate is, as one might predict, average. So, to distinguish oneself, something like going to grad school in physics is signalling about two standard deviations above average. I assume this number is going down as well. I don’t think schooling is an inherent good. For most people it’s just marking time and social signalling. Sure, some people make the most of school and are enriched by it (I certainly was), but the romantic view is the rare exception, not the rule. Most people who go to school simply want a desk job.
I only know about physics grad school, so my comments should be taken in that light. It is a very intense process for most people. There are a number of checkpoints where it can all come to naught, including at the very end of the procedure. Prelim exams, qualifier exams, pre-defense presentations, dissertation defenses. I knew guys who spent 10 years on a Ph.D. in physics and didn’t actually get a Ph.D. in the end because their research didn’t pan out, or their committees thought they were dicks. Most grad students aren’t even paid a living wage for these years, so you actually go into debt for the privilege of gaining what amounts to a certificate in return for a half decade or more of quasi-slavery. You can’t even put the title on your drivers license afterwords. For myself, I crushed it in the early years, but I got sidelined by “peace dividend” funding issues in the mid-90s, personal life issues, financial issues (I took time off to do some tech consulting so I didn’t become homeless), political issues, and towards the end of the process I even developed health issues: carpal tunnel syndrome and an insane condition called idiopathic stabbing headaches (which was a combination of unhealthy lifestyle and …. sulphites, and was as debilitating as it sounded). No fully sane person puts themselves through this kind of thing. I realized I was stuck in the sunk cost fallacy maybe halfway through, but figured I should finish what I started, and managed to squeak by. I was one of the lucky ones who actually had the opportunity to stay in the field, but looking at the careers of people who looked like me, it had basically zero appeal.

Anyway, some people who go to grad school go down a dark path. Imagine being a talented physics student, talented enough to end up in grad school at Brown, and ending up selling fruit (or whatever) in Florida on a visa lottery. Of course conspiriod nitwits are all over this; disappointed it wasn’t an antifa attack on college republicans, we have people saying it was all about the Professor’s research into limitless free energy (his research was nothing of the sort). One that it was Operation Gladio mind control operation, based on absolutely nothing. Also covering up magnetic pole reversals. To say nothing of flying saucers. Nah, pretty sure it was just some guy who cracked after his life was ruined by physics grad school, just like Professor Katz said. If you want to ask hard questions, ask questions like why it was someone talented enough to go to Ivy League physics grad school came to see mass murder as a rational decision. He wasn’t the only example; and there are no wiki pages for grad students who self-delete. Also why, despite all the allegedly socially useful higher education going on these days, so many people believe stupid shit like the men in black deleted a physicist and staged a mass shooting because muh flying saucers.
Lots of people have pointed out the sheer pointlessness of academic careers in current year. Few have pointed out how nasty it can be. It wasn’t particularly nasty to me, but people making this decision should go into the process with eyes open. Or, like, do something else which is actually socially useful, like start a business.
Professor Katz’s essay:
Don’t Become a Scientist!
Jonathan I. Katz
Professor of Physics
Washington University, St. Louis, Mo.
[my last name]@wuphys.wustl.edu
Are you thinking of becoming a scientist? Do you want to uncover the mysteries of nature, perform experiments or carry out calculations to learn how the world works? Forget it!
Science is fun and exciting. The thrill of discovery is unique. If you are smart, ambitious and hard working you should major in science as an undergraduate. But that is as far as you should take it. After graduation, you will have to deal with the real world. That means that you should not even consider going to graduate school in science. Do something else instead: medical school, law school, computers or engineering, or something else which appeals to you.
Why am I (a tenured professor of physics) trying to discourage you from following a career path which was successful for me? Because times have changed (I received my Ph.D. in 1973, and tenure in 1976). American science no longer offers a reasonable career path. If you go to graduate school in science it is in the expectation of spending your working life doing scientific research, using your ingenuity and curiosity to solve important and interesting problems. You will almost certainly be disappointed, probably when it is too late to choose another career.
American universities train roughly twice as many Ph.D.s as there are jobs for them. When something, or someone, is a glut on the market, the price drops. In the case of Ph.D. scientists, the reduction in price takes the form of many years spent in “holding pattern” postdoctoral jobs. Permanent jobs don’t pay much less than they used to, but instead of obtaining a real job two years after the Ph.D. (as was typical 25 years ago) most young scientists spend five, ten, or more years as postdocs. They have no prospect of permanent employment and often must obtain a new postdoctoral position and move every two years. For many more details consult the Young Scientists’ Network or read the account in the May, 2001 issue of the Washington Monthly.
As examples, consider two of the leading candidates for a recent Assistant Professorship in my department. One was 37, ten years out of graduate school (he didn’t get the job). The leading candidate, whom everyone thinks is brilliant, was 35, seven years out of graduate school. Only then was he offered his first permanent job (that’s not tenure, just the possibility of it six years later, and a step off the treadmill of looking for a new job every two years). The latest example is a 39 year old candidate for another Assistant Professorship; he has published 35 papers. In contrast, a doctor typically enters private practice at 29, a lawyer at 25 and makes partner at 31, and a computer scientist with a Ph.D. has a very good job at 27 (computer science and engineering are the few fields in which industrial demand makes it sensible to get a Ph.D.). Anyone with the intelligence, ambition and willingness to work hard to succeed in science can also succeed in any of these other professions.
Typical postdoctoral salaries begin at $27,000 annually in the biological sciences and about $35,000 in the physical sciences (graduate student stipends are less than half these figures). Can you support a family on that income? It suffices for a young couple in a small apartment, though I know of one physicist whose wife left him because she was tired of repeatedly moving with little prospect of settling down. When you are in your thirties you will need more: a house in a good school district and all the other necessities of ordinary middle class life. Science is a profession, not a religious vocation, and does not justify an oath of poverty or celibacy.
Of course, you don’t go into science to get rich. So you choose not to go to medical or law school, even though a doctor or lawyer typically earns two to three times as much as a scientist (one lucky enough to have a good senior-level job). I made that choice too. I became a scientist in order to have the freedom to work on problems which interest me. But you probably won’t get that freedom. As a postdoc you will work on someone else’s ideas, and may be treated as a technician rather than as an independent collaborator. Eventually, you will probably be squeezed out of science entirely. You can get a fine job as a computer programmer, but why not do this at 22, rather than putting up with a decade of misery in the scientific job market first? The longer you spend in science the harder you will find it to leave, and the less attractive you will be to prospective employers in other fields.
Perhaps you are so talented that you can beat the postdoc trap; some university (there are hardly any industrial jobs in the physical sciences) will be so impressed with you that you will be hired into a tenure track position two years out of graduate school. Maybe. But the general cheapening of scientific labor means that even the most talented stay on the postdoctoral treadmill for a very long time; consider the job candidates described above. And many who appear to be very talented, with grades and recommendations to match, later find that the competition of research is more difficult, or at least different, and that they must struggle with the rest.
Suppose you do eventually obtain a permanent job, perhaps a tenured professorship. The struggle for a job is now replaced by a struggle for grant support, and again there is a glut of scientists. Now you spend your time writing proposals rather than doing research. Worse, because your proposals are judged by your competitors you cannot follow your curiosity, but must spend your effort and talents on anticipating and deflecting criticism rather than on solving the important scientific problems. They’re not the same thing: you cannot put your past successes in a proposal, because they are finished work, and your new ideas, however original and clever, are still unproven. It is proverbial that original ideas are the kiss of death for a proposal; because they have not yet been proved to work (after all, that is what you are proposing to do) they can be, and will be, rated poorly. Having achieved the promised land, you find that it is not what you wanted after all.
What can be done? The first thing for any young person (which means anyone who does not have a permanent job in science) to do is to pursue another career. This will spare you the misery of disappointed expectations. Young Americans have generally woken up to the bad prospects and absence of a reasonable middle class career path in science and are deserting it. If you haven’t yet, then join them. Leave graduate school to people from India and China, for whom the prospects at home are even worse. I have known more people whose lives have been ruined by getting a Ph.D. in physics than by drugs.
If you are in a position of leadership in science then you should try to persuade the funding agencies to train fewer Ph.D.s. The glut of scientists is entirely the consequence of funding policies (almost all graduate education is paid for by federal grants). The funding agencies are bemoaning the scarcity of young people interested in science when they themselves caused this scarcity by destroying science as a career. They could reverse this situation by matching the number trained to the demand, but they refuse to do so, or even to discuss the problem seriously (for many years the NSF propagated a dishonest prediction of a coming shortage of scientists, and most funding agencies still act as if this were true). The result is that the best young people, who should go into science, sensibly refuse to do so, and the graduate schools are filled with weak American students and with foreigners lured by the American student visa.
https://arxiv.org/abs/astro-ph/0310368
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