World Cup '14: Challenge Accepted
Jun. 9th, 2014 05:35 pmA man must react when the gauntlet is placed.
Four years ago,
burning_phoneix and I had a competition to see who could guess the teams who would make it out of the group stages of the World Cup. Unlike his usual form, he actually won that one, comfortably. For someone who usually fails before my might, it was a rare victory, which he has cherished and brandished for four years. It's kind of like Manchester City bringing up their last two Premiership titles to United, while forgetting decades of dominance beforehand.
Keen to feel even better about himself, he has issued the challenge again, with stakes: whoever gets the most picks right this year wins a game, chosen by the winner, valued up to $25 on Steam.
My friend, the challenge is accepted.
Below are my picks to make it out of each group, and why. I look forward to reestablishing my omnipotence in all matters, and punishing Fenix for being the bus-parker he is1.
GROUP A
IN: Brazil, Mexico
OUT: Croatia, Cameroon
Obviously, Brazil is the favourite. They're not only the favourite, they're head and shoulders better than every other team. But I flip-flopped on the second team at least once, each. I actually had Cameroon tabbed to win until I remembered that their strikers are as old as I am. Mexico is a hot mess. And while I love the Croatian team, I don't like their odds having to start against Brazil, and being an Eastern European team in Brazil in June.
Ultimately, I think Mexico's coaching change will help them advance out of what is going to be a bit of a dogfight. This is a tough group, despite Brazil's obvious dominance. If this tournament was anywhere but Brazil, I'd have Croatia advancing handily, but it's not.
GROUP B
IN: Spain, Chile
OUT: Netherlands, Australia
It's going to be trendy to pick the Dutch to advance along with the champs, but I'm going to go with Chile for a few reasons:
1) The Dutch are good up front, but the bad news is that they all don't get along very well. There's some France potential here. The days of Total Football are long over.
2) Chile is a lot more comfortable in this heat than the Dutch.
3) Yeah, Chile's defence is weak, but that's the case for virtually every team outside the seeds.
I think second place in this group comes down to a 2-1 victory for the Chileans. Sure, they'll probably get worked by Brazil in the Round of 16, but hey, that's not bad for them!
As for Australia, they are awful, and they are in a tough group. We could see them give up some cricket scorelines.
GROUP C
IN: Columbia, Ivory Coast
OUT: Greece, Japan
I feel kind of bad for the Japanese here, because they got put into the worst possible draw, match-up wise, that didn't involve the Germans. Small, fleet of foot team that likes to run... in a hot country against physical teams. The Greeks might literally eat Shinji Kagawa.
Overall, picture Columbia faring the best, and the Ivory Coast surviving. This is assuming that they don't choke like they do every other World Cup and end up losing 3-0 to the Greeks.
GROUP D
IN: Uruguay, Italy
OUT: Costa Rica, England
Boy, did England get fucked here. Italy, Brazil Killer Uruguay™, and even a frisky Costa Rican squad. Prediction: England loses to Costa Rica and the nation collectively shits itself, which is an accomplishment for a people that boil virtually everything.
I think Uruguay actually wins this group. The Italians are far from home, in a very hot climate, and relying on too many older players.
GROUP E
IN: Switzerland, France
OUT: Ecuador, Honduras
The ironic thing is if England or the US were in this group, they'd probably win it. As it is, we have Switzerland, who are... *checks* SIXTH in the FIFA rankings!? When'd that happen? I don't think they're that good, but they're not shit, either. Then there's Ecuador (who won't play well so close to sea level) and Honduras (who are basically just happy to be here, and might rival Greece for most shots blocked because they put all eleven men in their own box).
And then... there's France. Frankly, anything can happen with these guys. They could win the whole thing. They could lose all three matches and literally murder Deschampes. Frankly, I don't think they get far - I have them second, especially after losing Ribery, and that means meeting Argentina - but they have enough on talent alone to get past Ecuador and Honduras.
GROUP F
IN: Argentina and Nigeria
OUT: Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iran
One thing we know about this group: there will be goals. Bosnia is the team I want to support just for beautiful football alone. They score, and score, and score. Defence? Just an excuse to score more goals! Argentina is Argentina. And Iran is so bad that they're going to be plucking the ball out of their net all tournament.
I really want to say that Bosnia is going to go through. I really, really do. But Nigeria are, among the three Not Argentina teams, the most solid defensively. And personnel wise, B-H are the most susceptible to something going wrong because they don't have much room for error. If a key player goes down with an injury, or gets into discipline trouble, they're in big trouble. I'm playing it safe by picking Nigeria, but this is one I want to be wrong on.
GROUP RAPE
IN: Germany, Portugal
OUT: Ghana, United States
As far as groups of death go, this is the ninth circle. Holy shit.
So obviously, it's going to be Germany and Portugal. The only way that changes is if Ronaldo breaks his leg in the Germany match (which, thankfully for the other two, is first). And Ghana is unlucky; they're the best African squad to make the tournament, but ran into two buzzsaws, even if I don't trust Portugal to play to potential; they're France with hotter women.
So, let's talk about Landon Donovan, since everyone else and their fucking mother will be.
I honestly think that once Klinsman saw the draw, and saw he was going to likely finish last no matter what - Ghana is good, trust me - that he figured this World Cup was ultimately a throwaway, and also a good chance to integrate younger players while sticking it to Donovan - who he has a history with before the US team - in the process.
For anyone asking "wait, would the coach really keep a guy off the national team during the world's biggest competition out of spite?", yes, this coach would. Klinsman's son's tweet was not an accident; there is real animus there, and it's unfortunate because for one, Donovan deserves better, and for two, in American international sports, it never ends well when a coach decides to make a statement with their most famous player. Ben Smith made that mistake for the women's hockey team in 2006, and they didn't even make it to the gold medal game. If this ends like that story did, Klinsman won't even get to see his young squad blossom in '18.
GROUP H
IN: Belgium and Russia
OUT: South Korean and Algeria
Algeria are also-rans. And football neophytes might not know it yet, but Belgium is solid. VERY solid. More on this down below.
So the group's drama really comes down to Russia and South Korea. On the one hand, I've been pretty down on the European teams playing in the heat so far, and it doesn't get any more Eastern European than Russia, many of whose best players played in the RPL. On the other hand, I don't think South Korea is that good. Here's why I have Russia advancing:
1) Better competition. Russia qualified in Europe, while South Korea barely qualified in the weakest federation outside of Oceana.
2) South Korea can't defend set pieces at all. I think Russia will slot one home in their match.
3) Fabio Capello is good enough to get them through, despite what the English think.
Naturally, just humbling Fenix isn't good enough. I have predictions for the rest of the bracket. This is where things get edgy, and are going to prove I'm either a genius or got a bit too speculative.
For what it's worth, my bracket is on ESPN: http://games.espn.go.com/world-cup-bracket-predictor/2014/en/entry?entryID=845440
ROUND OF 16
* Brazil d. Chile - This will be a fun match, and the Chileans will make it interesting, but Brazil has too much quality.
* Columbia d. Italy - Again, Italy is old and is going to be on fumes at this point. Columbia might run them into the ground.
* Switzerland d. Nigeria - The Swiss aren't *that* good, but they're not bad. They'll beat a Nigeria side that might beat itself first.
* Germany d. Russia - Barely a contest.
* Spain d. Mexico - And once again, Spain exerts its dominance over the Mexicans... but enough about the 1600s.
* Uruguay d. Ivory Coast - No contest in my opinion. Cote d'Ivory is not that good.
* Argentina d. France - Could France be the first team to forfeit a World Cup knockout match? God, I hope so. I do so love seeing this team implode.
* Belgium d. Portugal - And the rest of the world goes "woah".
QUARTERFINALS
* Brazil d. Columbia - Who will have more pressure: the Brazilians, who have an entire nation demanding their victory, or the Columbians, who proved in '94 what happens when you make mistakes at this stage?
* Germany d. Switzerland - The Swiss's lack of relative talent finally bites them.
* Uruguay d. Spain - At this point, Spain's probably running out of gas, while Uruguay's getting stronger. And it's been so long since we've seen a Spanish collapse, no?
* Belgium d. Argentina - And the rest of the world goes "WHAT THE FUCK"
SEMIFINALS
* Brazil d. Germany - Tight game, but the Brazilians win a close one, as the rest of the country looks restlessly at the other match...
* Uruguay d. Belgium - Finally, the climate and youth of the Belgians catches up with them, setting up arguably the greatest rematch in World Cup history...
FINAL - BRAZIL V. URUGUAY
* Brazil 2, Uruguay 1. Though I wonder: normally, when a team loses, the country riots. That could be the opposite here. I do think the Brazilian team will hold through ridiculous pressure, because I rate Scolari that highly. The dark years of Dunga are over! And while this won't "heal" the country - the division is too great - there will still be a huge deal at avenging 1950.
1 - A direct Twitter quote: "Oh oh, @superbus isn't gonna let me live this down: with 4 midfielders and the main GK out injured, I switch out my counter attacking... For pure defensive Greece style in Footyman2014....and suddenly I'm winning games...like a lot if them." I, on the other hand, run a 4-3-2-1 with two deep-lying playmakers, a B2B, two attacking wingers and a striker, in a fluid system, and I make my spectators sing my name in praises regarding my attacking style of football. I cannot just win for myself. I have to win for the sake of beautiful football. Joga Bonito!
Four years ago,
Keen to feel even better about himself, he has issued the challenge again, with stakes: whoever gets the most picks right this year wins a game, chosen by the winner, valued up to $25 on Steam.
My friend, the challenge is accepted.
Below are my picks to make it out of each group, and why. I look forward to reestablishing my omnipotence in all matters, and punishing Fenix for being the bus-parker he is1.
GROUP A
IN: Brazil, Mexico
OUT: Croatia, Cameroon
Obviously, Brazil is the favourite. They're not only the favourite, they're head and shoulders better than every other team. But I flip-flopped on the second team at least once, each. I actually had Cameroon tabbed to win until I remembered that their strikers are as old as I am. Mexico is a hot mess. And while I love the Croatian team, I don't like their odds having to start against Brazil, and being an Eastern European team in Brazil in June.
Ultimately, I think Mexico's coaching change will help them advance out of what is going to be a bit of a dogfight. This is a tough group, despite Brazil's obvious dominance. If this tournament was anywhere but Brazil, I'd have Croatia advancing handily, but it's not.
GROUP B
IN: Spain, Chile
OUT: Netherlands, Australia
It's going to be trendy to pick the Dutch to advance along with the champs, but I'm going to go with Chile for a few reasons:
1) The Dutch are good up front, but the bad news is that they all don't get along very well. There's some France potential here. The days of Total Football are long over.
2) Chile is a lot more comfortable in this heat than the Dutch.
3) Yeah, Chile's defence is weak, but that's the case for virtually every team outside the seeds.
I think second place in this group comes down to a 2-1 victory for the Chileans. Sure, they'll probably get worked by Brazil in the Round of 16, but hey, that's not bad for them!
As for Australia, they are awful, and they are in a tough group. We could see them give up some cricket scorelines.
GROUP C
IN: Columbia, Ivory Coast
OUT: Greece, Japan
I feel kind of bad for the Japanese here, because they got put into the worst possible draw, match-up wise, that didn't involve the Germans. Small, fleet of foot team that likes to run... in a hot country against physical teams. The Greeks might literally eat Shinji Kagawa.
Overall, picture Columbia faring the best, and the Ivory Coast surviving. This is assuming that they don't choke like they do every other World Cup and end up losing 3-0 to the Greeks.
GROUP D
IN: Uruguay, Italy
OUT: Costa Rica, England
Boy, did England get fucked here. Italy, Brazil Killer Uruguay™, and even a frisky Costa Rican squad. Prediction: England loses to Costa Rica and the nation collectively shits itself, which is an accomplishment for a people that boil virtually everything.
I think Uruguay actually wins this group. The Italians are far from home, in a very hot climate, and relying on too many older players.
GROUP E
IN: Switzerland, France
OUT: Ecuador, Honduras
The ironic thing is if England or the US were in this group, they'd probably win it. As it is, we have Switzerland, who are... *checks* SIXTH in the FIFA rankings!? When'd that happen? I don't think they're that good, but they're not shit, either. Then there's Ecuador (who won't play well so close to sea level) and Honduras (who are basically just happy to be here, and might rival Greece for most shots blocked because they put all eleven men in their own box).
And then... there's France. Frankly, anything can happen with these guys. They could win the whole thing. They could lose all three matches and literally murder Deschampes. Frankly, I don't think they get far - I have them second, especially after losing Ribery, and that means meeting Argentina - but they have enough on talent alone to get past Ecuador and Honduras.
GROUP F
IN: Argentina and Nigeria
OUT: Bosnia-Herzegovina and Iran
One thing we know about this group: there will be goals. Bosnia is the team I want to support just for beautiful football alone. They score, and score, and score. Defence? Just an excuse to score more goals! Argentina is Argentina. And Iran is so bad that they're going to be plucking the ball out of their net all tournament.
I really want to say that Bosnia is going to go through. I really, really do. But Nigeria are, among the three Not Argentina teams, the most solid defensively. And personnel wise, B-H are the most susceptible to something going wrong because they don't have much room for error. If a key player goes down with an injury, or gets into discipline trouble, they're in big trouble. I'm playing it safe by picking Nigeria, but this is one I want to be wrong on.
GROUP RAPE
IN: Germany, Portugal
OUT: Ghana, United States
As far as groups of death go, this is the ninth circle. Holy shit.
So obviously, it's going to be Germany and Portugal. The only way that changes is if Ronaldo breaks his leg in the Germany match (which, thankfully for the other two, is first). And Ghana is unlucky; they're the best African squad to make the tournament, but ran into two buzzsaws, even if I don't trust Portugal to play to potential; they're France with hotter women.
So, let's talk about Landon Donovan, since everyone else and their fucking mother will be.
I honestly think that once Klinsman saw the draw, and saw he was going to likely finish last no matter what - Ghana is good, trust me - that he figured this World Cup was ultimately a throwaway, and also a good chance to integrate younger players while sticking it to Donovan - who he has a history with before the US team - in the process.
For anyone asking "wait, would the coach really keep a guy off the national team during the world's biggest competition out of spite?", yes, this coach would. Klinsman's son's tweet was not an accident; there is real animus there, and it's unfortunate because for one, Donovan deserves better, and for two, in American international sports, it never ends well when a coach decides to make a statement with their most famous player. Ben Smith made that mistake for the women's hockey team in 2006, and they didn't even make it to the gold medal game. If this ends like that story did, Klinsman won't even get to see his young squad blossom in '18.
GROUP H
IN: Belgium and Russia
OUT: South Korean and Algeria
Algeria are also-rans. And football neophytes might not know it yet, but Belgium is solid. VERY solid. More on this down below.
So the group's drama really comes down to Russia and South Korea. On the one hand, I've been pretty down on the European teams playing in the heat so far, and it doesn't get any more Eastern European than Russia, many of whose best players played in the RPL. On the other hand, I don't think South Korea is that good. Here's why I have Russia advancing:
1) Better competition. Russia qualified in Europe, while South Korea barely qualified in the weakest federation outside of Oceana.
2) South Korea can't defend set pieces at all. I think Russia will slot one home in their match.
3) Fabio Capello is good enough to get them through, despite what the English think.
Naturally, just humbling Fenix isn't good enough. I have predictions for the rest of the bracket. This is where things get edgy, and are going to prove I'm either a genius or got a bit too speculative.
For what it's worth, my bracket is on ESPN: http://games.espn.go.com/world-cup-bracket-predictor/2014/en/entry?entryID=845440
ROUND OF 16
* Brazil d. Chile - This will be a fun match, and the Chileans will make it interesting, but Brazil has too much quality.
* Columbia d. Italy - Again, Italy is old and is going to be on fumes at this point. Columbia might run them into the ground.
* Switzerland d. Nigeria - The Swiss aren't *that* good, but they're not bad. They'll beat a Nigeria side that might beat itself first.
* Germany d. Russia - Barely a contest.
* Spain d. Mexico - And once again, Spain exerts its dominance over the Mexicans... but enough about the 1600s.
* Uruguay d. Ivory Coast - No contest in my opinion. Cote d'Ivory is not that good.
* Argentina d. France - Could France be the first team to forfeit a World Cup knockout match? God, I hope so. I do so love seeing this team implode.
* Belgium d. Portugal - And the rest of the world goes "woah".
QUARTERFINALS
* Brazil d. Columbia - Who will have more pressure: the Brazilians, who have an entire nation demanding their victory, or the Columbians, who proved in '94 what happens when you make mistakes at this stage?
* Germany d. Switzerland - The Swiss's lack of relative talent finally bites them.
* Uruguay d. Spain - At this point, Spain's probably running out of gas, while Uruguay's getting stronger. And it's been so long since we've seen a Spanish collapse, no?
* Belgium d. Argentina - And the rest of the world goes "WHAT THE FUCK"
SEMIFINALS
* Brazil d. Germany - Tight game, but the Brazilians win a close one, as the rest of the country looks restlessly at the other match...
* Uruguay d. Belgium - Finally, the climate and youth of the Belgians catches up with them, setting up arguably the greatest rematch in World Cup history...
FINAL - BRAZIL V. URUGUAY
* Brazil 2, Uruguay 1. Though I wonder: normally, when a team loses, the country riots. That could be the opposite here. I do think the Brazilian team will hold through ridiculous pressure, because I rate Scolari that highly. The dark years of Dunga are over! And while this won't "heal" the country - the division is too great - there will still be a huge deal at avenging 1950.
1 - A direct Twitter quote: "Oh oh, @superbus isn't gonna let me live this down: with 4 midfielders and the main GK out injured, I switch out my counter attacking... For pure defensive Greece style in Footyman2014....and suddenly I'm winning games...like a lot if them." I, on the other hand, run a 4-3-2-1 with two deep-lying playmakers, a B2B, two attacking wingers and a striker, in a fluid system, and I make my spectators sing my name in praises regarding my attacking style of football. I cannot just win for myself. I have to win for the sake of beautiful football. Joga Bonito!