I'm trying out duplicating the Weekend Data Dump on Substack.
Help me out by subscribing and by liking and sharing posts. I also post here on TDR seven days a week, including Weekend Data Dump and Winter War of
2022. I occasionally post short data dump-type items on my Substack "Notes" section.
In case you missed it on Substack: When You Lose a War, a Lot of Details Look Bad in Retrospect
In case you missed it on Substack: Globalize the Intifida? Focus the Punishment
In case you missed it on Substack: The 2025 National Security Strategy (final thoughts and table of contents)
In case you missed it on Substack: Which Empire in Europe Will Bite the Dust?
Venezuela is dragging its feet on releasing political prisoner. Why?. A virtual occupation is difficult. Fear will subside as the Great Raid fades from memory. Fear must be reinforced constantly.
Well:
“A U-Haul driver allegedly plowed into a massive crowd of protesters at
an anti-Iran regime rally in Los Angeles on Sunday — injuring at least
two people in a chaotic scene caught on video.” Later I read the driver
was pro-MEK who are communists who oppose the mullahs and the
anti-mullah protesters.
Yeah, I assumed Iranians on the streets are getting professional help from abroad.
That help doesn’t make the opposition fake. It just tips the balance
away from the state with all its instruments of power. Hell, I don’t assume it has to be state-provided support. Tip to Instapundit.
You only need sufficient signal to support a revolution--not the volume needed to televise it in real time. Tip to Instapundit.
In the Caribbean Sea, America captured a fifth sanctioned Venezuelan tanker.
Homeland defense:
“The U.S. Coast Guard closed out 2025 with record success in maritime
drug interdictions, seizing more than 511,000 pounds of narcotics valued
at more than $3.8 billion, the service announced in a news release.”
The M1E3 Abrams is being displayed at the Detroit Auto Show, which began on Wednesday.
F-35 pilots will be able to control several large CCA “wingmen” drones using tablets.
America
and South Korea established a joint ground forces command as part of a
long-held goal of transferring responsibility for fighting a war from
America to the South Koreans.
We will likely know what was decided by the time this is published:
“President Trump is scheduled to be briefed Tuesday on options to
respond to the protests in Iran, according to U.S. officials[.]” And
maybe before if this is a ruse.
The U.S. apparently used a sonic weapon during mission to capture Maduro. To be clear, this is a less-than-lethal weapon designed to reduce deaths while protecting American forces. Do we have an airborne area effects weapon now?
This reduces one avenue for Iran to strike Israel:
“Following an evacuation warning to Lebanese civilians, the IDF
confirmed that it had begun striking Hezbollah infrastructure in
“several areas” of southern Lebanon on Sunday evening.”
This year, Finland will start receiving the 64 F-35s it purchased.
It is not the most expensive plane on a per-plane basis. It is the most
expensive total purchase price for all planes produced.
F-22 updates will keep it flying into the 2060s.
America doesn’t win its wars. I emphatically disagree, other than Afghanistan which we chose to lose: “It is also necessary to consider the point spread our military uniquely operates under in non-great power wars. And don’t forget the big picture context!“
Ukraine’s effort to build its own long-range cruise missile.
An economic cold war. The national security strategy
wants economic rather than military competition. Hopefully China sees
mutual benefit to a purely economic competition. Good luck with that.
Spheres of influence are good? I reject that false solution to great power competition.
Is Cuba next?
Well sure, it is more vulnerable to collapse without Venezuelan oil.
And the fall of that hostile regime would be good for America. But China
and to a lesser extent Russia could assume the financial burden of
sustaining Cuba if having a Caribbean outpost is important enough to
them.
Is this a revolution in Iran? Hard to say.
The mullahs could ride out the surge of opposition as they have in the
past. But I also ask whether a threat to the mullah regime if it pans
out that way is a revolution or the fragmentation of the rump Persian Empire that we call Iran today.
Good: “Germany is planning to set up a joint Nato operation in the Arctic in an effort to dissuade Donald Trump from annexing Greenland.”
Venezuela isn’t free yet. That is the problem with a virtual invasion.
Huh:
Northern and Southern Commands will become American Command, or
AMERICOM; the European, Central, and African Commands will become
International Command, and Indo-Pacific Command will not be changed. No Polar Command?
I have no problem with this path, as described, to getting illegal aliens legalized.
The proto-imperial EU can hardly strip away the prefix without an army!
“European Union Defense Commissioner Andrius Kubilius has said the bloc
should consider establishing a standing military force of 100,000
troops and overhaul the political processes governing defense.” Resist this danger to America.
Wow:
“Venezuela’s much-touted antiaircraft systems were essentially not
connected when U.S. forces entered the skies over Venezuela’s capital,
and they may not have been working for years, former officials and
analysts said.” Well, you don’t have to be great to win--just better
than the enemy.
Perhaps my nervousness about the Artemis II path back to the Moon that I expressed last week is not justified.
Huh:
“The Trump administration is nearing a trade deal with Taiwan to reduce
its tariff rate to 15% and commit Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing
Corporation (2330.TW) , opens new tato building at least five more facilities in Arizona, the New York Times reported on Monday[.]” Who needs an Article 5 guarantee?
Trump was briefed:
“Long-range missile strikes remain an option for a potential US
intervention, but Pentagon officials have also presented cyber
operations and psychological campaign responses, the sources said.”
Non-kinetics are great. But people being shot need to see those
murdering them killed, too.
Remember that the Cape of Good Hope route is the alternative to a blocked Red Sea route:
“Warships from China, Russia and Iran amassed in the waters off South
Africa to kick off a weeklong drill alongside the South African National
Defense Force.”
Senator Kelly sued the Pentagon for reducing his rank and pension
for his despicable “obey illegal orders” video. While I don’t think
Kelly as a sitting U.S. senator should be restricted, the solution is
for someone in elected office is to resign their commission and forfeit
their military pension to escape the UCMJ.
I’m
opposed to “perfidy” in war--usually practiced by unlawful
combatants--but I’ve expressed my opposition to regular military assets
disguised as civilians. But if the US plane not painted like a military plane that hit a drug boat had military insignia on it, was it really a violation of the rules of war?
Does this mean all the SFAB units will be eliminated?
“The Army has formally inactivated the Security Force Assistance
Command based in North Carolina, eliminating the headquarters that for
years oversaw brigades tasked with advising foreign militaries.”
Ukraine is using vehicle-mounted Hellfire anti-tank missiles in an anti-UAV role.
Drone air defense:
“Sweden has allocated €1.4 billion ($1.6 billion) to establish multiple
dispersed air defense units equipped with short-range air defense
weapons to guard cities and critical infrastructure against aerial
threats.” A “new” threat requires an old priority.
Is refusal a reflection of confidence in Mexican capabilities or fear of cartel power? “President Claudia Sheinbaum said Monday she rejected an offer from President Trump to use the U.S. military against the country’s drug cartels[.]”
Sh*t got real:
“The United States virtual embassy in Iran urged American nationals to
‘leave Iran now,’ citing protests that are ‘escalating and may turn
violent.’”
Is Iraq moving toward the strong horse by inviting American oil companies to operate there
“finally mark a decisive shift in Iraq’s geopolitical stance back
towards the U.S. and its Western partners, away from Russia, China,
Iran, and their allies?”
China is buying more Russian oil as India reduces its purchases.
When America relied on Persian Gulf oil, it established the Rapid
Deployment Force. Which evolved into CENTCOM. How will China react to
relying more on Russian oil exports in order to reduce its vulnerability
to a stoppage?
Iran has crossed America’s red line: “Hundreds of protesters have been killed by security forces in what may be the largest − and possibly most consequential − wave of protests in Iran since 2009, human rights groups say.”
I assume the hope is that this will be brief because the mullahs will feel more pressure and flee: “President Donald Trump said on Monday that countries that do business with Iran will face a new 25% tariff.”
Lock and load:
“The Army’s updated solicitation signals a clear intent to expand
domestic ammunition manufacturing capacity and secure a stable second
source for key calibers used across U.S. forces.”
The U.S. should avoid “nation building” in Venezuela.
Sure. But distinguish “nation building” from “state building.” Trying
to make tribal Afghanistan or Somalia actual nations of unified people
is folly. But a friendly government is necessary to prevent chaos and the trouble that can breed there.
From the journal of the echelon above reality’s conventional wisdom: “The Iranian Regime Could Fall But a U.S. Strike Would Prop It Up”. I reject that rally around the flag argument. Note that seven months ago America bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities. Iranians are burning and not rallying around the mullah flag.
Russians have noticed Russia’s multiple foreign policy failures: “’An entire era is coming to an end,’ wrote
a pro-war military blogger under the pen name Maxim Kalashnikov on
Sunday, reflecting growing criticism of the Russian leadership.” Indeed,
I’ve noted the end of the Russian Decline Era already.
Canada is not hedging its broad and deep relationship with America by reaching out to China. Anybody who thinks that is possible--or wise--is delusional.
I’ve been resisting being hopeful about the chances of overthrowing the mullahs in Iran. My resistance is weakening.
I
heard the son of the former Shah calling on Iranians to wage cyber-war
on the mullah regime. I assume that at least partially runs cover for
Western (including Israeli) cyber operations.
North Korea doubles down worse relations with America and South Korea, while embracing nukes. Can China really be happy with North Korea as a loose nuclear cannon on the deck of U.S.-China relations? But perhaps North Korea and Russia have decided to resist domination by China.
Someone on Substack wrote that small UAVs force infantry into trenches, tunnels, and other cover. This is true. Until it isn’t. Consider the World War I Western Front.
Infantry was forced underground to avoid fires. But during the war,
weapons, equipment, and tactics emerged that made World War II
different.
I’m sure Trump would be happy with only this:
“Greenland’s government said on Monday it will increase efforts to
ensure the defence of the Arctic territory takes place under the
auspices of NATO[.]” The threats to take Greenland are for achieving
this.
Whether victorious or crushed, the Iranian people are staging a revolution:
“When they say ‘Death to Khamenei,’ they have crossed that threshold
and entered this new era of both hope and tragedy.” Well, maybe a dissolution. But it is definitely a death match with the mullahs.
My glimmer of hope for Iran has faded. I have said it depends on whether the mullahs have security forces ready to kill. The mullahs have that:
“The Iranian regime is using an unprecedented level of brutality to
suppress protests.” Can America effectively help? There are limits to
aerial firepower and cyber war.
The Iraq War continues as
“the United States will not engage with any prime minister or appointee
to the Foreign Affairs Ministry, Defense Ministry, Interior Ministry,
Counterterrorism Service, National Intelligence Service, or Iraqi Army
Chief of Staff who has ties to Iranian-backed Iraqi militias[.]”
The Islamist Syrian government began a limited offensive against Syrian Democratic Forces west of the Euphrates River.
Havana Syndrome still unexplained even as the Pentagon investigates a potential device.
If I had to guess--and I neither have to nor have any knowledge to
bolster the guess--this is either a listening device or trying to impose
a pattern on random afflictions. Okay, two guesses.
Speeding to disaster? “The U.S. Army will field the long-anticipated Bell MV-75 tiltrotor aircraft this year ahead of its former schedule[.]” I’m skeptical of the deep penetration mission of the aircraft formerly known as the V-280. I’ll make an exception for small, well-planned special forces missions.
Ah, two SFABs will be retained:
“The 1st SFAB, regionally aligned to U.S. Southern Command, will stay
at Fort Benning, Georgia, while the 5th SFAB, which is aligned to U.S.
Indo-Pacific Command, is set to stay at Joint Base Lewis-McChord in
Washington[.]”
To the shores of the Senkaku Islands:
“The Marine Corps’ only permanently deployed expeditionary brigade
stood up a new headquarters company on Tuesday, aligning it with a
Japanese amphibious brigade to streamline joint humanitarian and
warfighting missions in the Indo-Pacific.”
I’m skeptical you can avoid collateral damage--the only reason to defend this way--by netting an attack drone. If the drone falls to the ground and detonates anyway, was the target really defended?
China only wants to lull India for a future snatch and grab mission:
“Top leaders in India and China want to maintain the peace along their
border and are working to bridge a trust deficit between the militaries
of the two countries[.]”
America struck jihadis in Nigeria in cooperation with Nigeria:
“The US delivered critical military equipment to Nigeria, reinforcing
security cooperation with Africa’s most populous nation as it seeks to
curb terrorism, banditry and kidnappings that have destabilized large
parts of the country.”
As I’ve long said, Trump isn’t pro-Russian. He’s been trying to calm a rabid pit bull. Russia will pay a price: “The United States accused Russia on Monday of a ‘dangerous and inexplicable escalation[.]’”
I
once swore to defend against foreign and domestic enemies. Activists
ignorant of rule of law and what Nazism is have edged from protest into
low-level insurrection pushed by politicians and media. Those inspiring
activism got a woman killed and will get more killed. For God’s sake, stop. Via Instapundit.
This is long overdue:
“The Trump administration on Tuesday labeled Muslim Brotherhood
branches in Lebanon, Jordan, and Egypt as terrorist organizations.” Via
Instapundit.
Sh*t got real: the U.S. is withdrawing excess personnel from bases near Iran.
The
decision to make the next Navy destroyers have guns and vertical launch
cells rather than include hypersonic missiles led to the decision to
build a battleship. I’m skeptical the BBG will be more than a CG.
Marine
Force Design still insists it can wage combined arms warfare without
the tanks, artillery, and other supporting assets the Marines ditched
for missiles and drones. I’m skeptical.
I sure hope killing enemies and breaking their stuff doesn’t get lost in the ether: “Information operations, cognitive operations,
and cyber operations as a ‘salient form of warfare’ are ‘meta trends’
that are reshaping modern conflict, [the INDOPACOM commander] said.”
Yeah, the willingness and ability of the mullahs to kill Iranians has sapped my brief moment of hope.
Is there a level of outside help that can change the calculation? And
if so, are America and our allies willing to provide it in time to do
any good?
The EU fanboys have latched on to the Greenland kerfuffle as the latest faux crisis to justify a powerful EU that makes European nations mere provinces in the empire. Don’t give the EU power--or an army.
That model of mediocrity, Antony Blinken, says America is abandoning the world to dominate the Western Hemisphere. No, I think America focuses on repairing the Western Hemisphere as the foundation of power projection to support allies abroad who take the lead. There are problems with that, I admit.
Russia denies harassing Germany with small drones; and Germany pretends to investigate the problem.
Russia loses money for each jet it sells to China. But no worries! They’ll make up for that with volume of sales.
The mirage of spheres of influence:
“the economic costs of imperialism, the lack of coercive capacity to
hold territory, and the inevitable overlap of ‘backyards’ will lead not
to orderly dominance, but to global chaos, instability, and endless
warfare that will ultimately backfire on the instigators.” Heartily endorsed.
I’ve
been skeptical about Iran’s regular army having a role in defeating the
mullahs after nearly 50 years of mullah rule to shape their leadership.
But I’m hearing they are still, in part, an option to get non-mullah
rule. Hmm.
Trump’s threats to take Greenland to protect American security are directed at--with good reason--China and Russia,
and not Denmark. And I wonder if our NATO allies are in on the sham
threat against Denmark to make America’s threat to stop China and Russia
more credible. Or maybe they’re just that skittish.
The effort to activate the War Powers Resolution over Venezuela failed in the Senate. I just want to note that in 2011 when America attacked Libya for months, the Obama administration argued the resolution didn’t apply because Libya wasn’t shooting back at America’s aircraft.
Minnesota is edging into insurrection with state and local officials inciting resistance to proper federal law enforcement. The incitement has led to an ambush of an ICE officer. There wouldn’t be “chaos” if local authorities turned over criminal aliens. False patriotism anti-Nazism is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
Top-attack mine:
“A smart anti-tank munition that helps soldiers hold their own against
tracked vehicles is being hurried to the force after successful testing
in Bavaria.”
Promoting Europe’s defense industry:
“The European Union said Ukraine must buy weapons and military
platforms from European manufacturers under a new €90 billion ($104.8
billion) loan, unless they aren’t able to supply what Kyiv needs.”
Japan and the Philippines signed a defense agreement on logistics for joint military exercises and disaster response.
America’s military interest in Greenland has been active since 1941.
Not to be cruel, but you know America isn’t actually going to capture Greenland from Denmark when Macron warns America not to invade. This is just performance art for the next job Macron wants--Emperor of Europe.
Mowing the grass:
“In 2025 the UN continued to maintain a peacekeeping force in Somalia.
U.S. drones and warplanes continue to attack Islamic terrorist
operations in various areas of Somalia. Islamic terrorist group Al
Shabab continues to be active. Piracy returned to waters off the Somali
coast.”
The Navy selected a new LST design.
This CLIP proposal sounds like my external magazine USV concept for “reloading” Navy warship VLS cells while in the fight.
The Army wants South Korea to develop a longer range 155mm cannon using a 58 caliber barrel for use on a wheeled vehicle.
These authors defend the aircraft carrier and claim Ukraine lessons for the Navy are apples and oranges comparisons. I agree with that. But defending the role of carriers in recent power projection missions to defend carriers is an apples and oranges issue for the carrier sea control mission.
Is
it just me wondering this, but won’t traditional anti-tank shells and
missiles just punch through those elaborate anti-drone screens being
mounted on armored vehicles?
Replacing the Stinger anti-aircraft missile.
War is fundamentally a human endeavor. Your perfect strategy could fail because commanders get tired.
Given the filters that already stand between your precisely calibrated
diplomatic signal and the enemy leader that already make things
dangerous in a crisis, enemy leaders get tired when interpreting that
signal.
Well sure, America is in an economic war with China. The national security strategy was pretty clear about have that instead of a hot or “just” a cold war. But I find the 5,000-year old civilization knowledge claim rather silly. Their people live no longer than our people in a 250-year-old country.
I have no idea if the Iranian revolution (or counter-revolution if you refuse to accept 47 years of status quo) will succeed. But if it fails, will this crisis cripple Iran’s ability to attract jihadi fanboys abroad?
Is China a military or economic superpower? I have that book to read. I agree we over-estimate China’s military power (so far). Yet China only has to be able to project dominant power 500 miles from its borders to inflict global damage. As for the Cold War? The USSR was about 100 miles from the Rhine.
Sounds about right:
“The regime will likely succeed in quelling this resistance if it can
retain the loyalty of security forces and prevent those who are
resisting the regime from acquiring the wherewithal to challenge the
regime’s ability and willingness to sustain its crackdown.”
The elites of the mullah regime in Iran are moving gold and wiring money abroad
in a sign that the possibility of the fall of the government is not
negligible. My instinct is to strike when opportunity arises. But maybe
time (and quiet moves) will work instead of missiles. Tip to
Instapundit.
A Chinese line in the orbit? Tip to Instapundit.
Mission accomplished:
“Troops from several European countries, including France, Germany,
Norway and Sweden, are arriving in Greenland to help boost the Arctic
island’s security[.]” Come for “stopping” Trump. Stay for actually
stopping China!
Is China prying Thailand away from its long alliance with America?
Hmmm. We’ve been allies a long time. I keep reading warnings but don’t
know if they are realistic or extrapolations from Chinese desires to a
future reality.
I almost get tired of advising people to just breathe when I see Europeans leaping on chairs in panic over every White House utterance:
“Denmark, Greenland and the U.S. agreed to form a high-level working
group ‘to explore if we can find a common way forward’” per the Danish
foreign minister.
The united West is “dead”, say the EU fanboys. Another faux crisis to justify the proto-imperial EU ambition of erasing the prefix. If a united West does die, Brussels will be the one pulling the trigger.
Good:
““The Department of War is returning Stars & Stripes to its
original mission: reporting for our warfighters,” Pentagon spokesman
Sean Parnell wrote on X.” Maybe the editors of Early Bird Brief sponsored by Lockheed Martin could follow that example.
Huh:
“One largely overlooked anti-Tehran foreign policy change cemented by
Washington was a new trade agreement negotiated by the Trump
administration between Azerbaijan and Armenia that’s putting a major
economic squeeze on Tehran.”
I assume she will have a role: “Venezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado
gave her Nobel Peace Prize medal to U.S. President Donald Trump on
Thursday during a White House meeting, in a bid to influence his efforts
to shape her country’s political future.” Eventually.
This may be a good idea before we have a Blackhawk Down 2.0 in Minneapolis:
“President Donald Trump threatened to deploy US military forces to
Minnesota in order to quell protests in response to violent encounters
involving federal immigration agents.”
The Golden Hour probably isn’t possible on a conventional battlefield:
“The Army is testing the ability of its combat medics to keep
critically injured soldiers alive on the future battlefield, where they
no longer will be able to rely on quick medical evacuations.”
Shiny object: “The Pentagon on Thursday said it is moving a carrier strike group from the South China Sea toward the Middle East as tensions between the U.S. and Iran continue to rise.” If one or two of our SSGNs are in the region, CENTCOM could act before the Abraham Lincoln group arrives.
INDOPACOM ([sigh] not PAINCOM) commander: “When we operate with allies and partners, we multiply capability and we raise the threshold for aggression.” America has a big role in maintaining those allies and partners. So I commend Congressional interest.
Giving the cartels paid time off until the heat cools off isn’t “dismantled”:
“The Venezuelan government said it dismantled the country’s main drug
trafficking logistics routes during 2025, particularly in the western
state of Zulia.”
Russia reorganizes its army from brigade-based to small divisions.
Of note, the new motor rifle divisions have two mechanized regiments
and one tank battalion. Cold War MRDs had three mechanized regiments and
a tank regiment for maneuver units. I wonder if the naval infantry division is a potential mistake.
Iran resorts to cyber-war on Israel. Will this work out better than trading aerial bombardments?
We should be able to build them like Liberty ships:
The Navy wants to build new frigates with modules built in other areas
assembled in the shipyard. Crewing them is another issue, of course.
The U.S. awarded a contract for “base operating support services” on Diego Garcia. The British government faces unexpected obstacle to giving away Diego Garcia. Fingers crossed.
Peak protest, regrouping, waiting for America--or lack of visibility?
“Iran’s deadly crackdown appears to have broadly quelled protests for
now, according to a rights group and residents, as state media reported
more arrests on Friday in the shadow of repeated U.S. threats to
intervene if the killing continues.”
Is Trump trying “regime reorientation” rather than “regime change” in Iran? I don’t think you can get “tame” Islamist governments. I’m not sure it can be done in Venezuela.
Targets in Iran that America could hit.
Don’t know if Iranian people and military can take advantage of that.
But given Iran’s repeated attacks on America I don’t feel like we would
be “escalating” the long war waged since the mullahs took our embassy in
Tehran at the regime’s birth.
China’s record export surge may be BS. Relying on statistics from underlings eager to please--and fearful of disappointing--might have just crashed the CCP reporting system. Tip to Instapundit.
ISW says the Iranians have suppressed demonstrations for now--but that the maximum security mobilization is not sustainable.
His lips are moving:
“Putin claimed on January 15 that Russia’s war in Ukraine is a ‘direct
response’ to the West ignoring Russia’s interests by expanding NATO,
despite alleged public promises to Russia not to do so.” So you know he is lying.
Is this insufficient? “The 1951 Defense of Greenland
agreement granted the U.S. the right to expand its military presence in
Greenland far beyond World War II levels.” While I suppose it might be
nice to own Greenland if Denmark agrees, can’t this be amended? Or is
the issue getting NATO to help defend it?
Sh*t got ... real?
“Britain said on Thursday it would strengthen its military reserve
forces by raising the maximum age at which former personnel could be
called up by a decade to 65.” What kind of fight them on the beaches,
streets, landing grounds, fields, and hills situation is expected?
Or ... getting the element of surprise: “President Trump is delaying a decision on striking Iran
as the White House consults internally and with allies about the timing
for such an operation and whether it would meaningfully destabilize the
regime[.]”
I had briefly toyed with the idea of
going to the Detroit Auto Show to see the new Abrams on display, but
decided it wouldn’t be worth it. Cars honestly don’t thrill me so that
is all I would be interested in. I figured someone would go to it--sure enough! Tip to Instapundit.
While America has had a long interest in keeping Europe out of enemy hands, this is a good question:
“Why do 600 million Europeans insist they need the help of 326 million
Americans to deal with 144 million Russians?” And also, too many Moslem
migrants who hate Europeans.
Breaking ice for fun and illegal profit.
This is a good point. And in the past I’ve asked
if excessive ship rust is separate from ship and crew readiness for
combat; or a visible warning sign that the ship and crew are not ready
for combat.
When the war in Ukraine ends, Ukrainian mercenaries with their skill sets could be an export much in demand. Hopefully if Russia continues to loom over Ukraine after a ceasefire, too many don’t seek fortunes abroad. But it could get ... interesting.
Good question:
“War, diplomacy, or revolt: What comes next in Iran?” With Iran’s
mullahs, if we choose diplomacy remember the quip that diplomacy is all
about saying “nice doggie” to a snarling dog while reaching for a stick.
With sanctions and luck, time may be the stick that brings down the
mullahs.
I’ve been arguing this for a while:
“The West should stop buying into Moscow’s bluff that Russia is
invincible[.]” Indeed, I have a post on that coming up tomorrow on the TDR mothership.
Yes: “The death of U.S. primacy has been greatly exaggerated.” As I argued in my final essay on the 2025 American national security strategy, America is willing to use its power--but not precisely the way our allies would like America to use its power.
Since 2021: “Germany is already deeply entrenched in state censorship and attacks on free speech.” Gosh, what was Vance smoking, eh?
Iran’s mullahs aren’t putting out the Mission Accomplished banner yet.
Huh:
“Insufficient infrastructure investments in Russia’s Far East are
likely hurting Russian economic agreements with the People’s Republic of
China (PRC).” Opportunity knocks.
Iran has called in its foreign Arab militias to kill Iranians:
“Citing a source in Iraq, US broadcaster CNN reported on Thursday that
in recent weeks almost 5,000 fighters from various militant groups
travelled to neighbouring Iran to support the state authorities.”
Taiwan’s opposition parties again blocked a defense appropriations bill. To be fair, there is a backlog of purchases from America yet to be delivered. Still, I worry about Taiwan’s resolve to fight.
Zheng He weeps with envy: “The PRC led military exercises with Iran, Russia, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates from January 9 to 16.”
Not sure what the angle is for securing Greenland for defense, including the Golden Shield, but this seems excessive:
“President Donald Trump on Saturday vowed to implement a wave of
increasing tariffs on European allies until the United States is
allowed to buy Greenland[.]” But the EU wants a crisis.
It was not fully done. And Ukraine found alternatives:
“A year ago, Russia persuaded China to stop selling Ukraine drones or
drone components. The Chinese government said it would be done.”
Make it so:
“American political and military leaders want to modify the way the
industrial base of defense manufacturers and military planners work
together. This will be done by improving flexibility, elasticity, and
surge capacity.”
Good:
“European countries appear to be cracking down against oil tankers
associated with the shadow fleets of Russia and its allies.”
NOTE: I had second thoughts on simply moving Weekend Data Dump to Substack when I realized I rely on searching TDR for old stuff and that I'd lose a lot of sources by splitting them. So I will duplicate the posts on Substack.
