UPDATED FORECAST 1-17

 Two distinct patterns this winter - couple weeks of wet, followed by couple weeks of dry - we are back in that dry period, reminiscent of most of December prior to Christmas when the flood gates opened with rain through New Years Day.  Stubborn high pressure the culprit, but not very unusual for a La Niña Winter.   Great weather for us and there have been some really epic surf days.   High pressure sticks around for at least another week and then models are hinting at a pattern change again - back to rain.   Until then - mostly light, offshore winds, some fog, small surf the rule.  Small west/northwest swell today through tomorrow - around 4-5ft@13-14 seconds.   Another slightly larger swell from the northwest will fill in Tuesday - peaking at around 6@14 seconds.  Swell direction for both around 280-290 deg.  So mostly fun size waves for the next week or so - Santa Cruz north.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-31

 Hope you enjoyed the past couple of sunny days - next round of storms lining up and will bring rain, wind, swell to the region for the next week or so.   It will be mostly south winds from today forward with increasing swell toward the weekend.   Gale warnings up for Friday when southeast winds will rip with gusts to 40kts.   For the rest of today, small west swell builds in at 5@12 seconds.   For NY day, expect southeast winds to pick up along with a southwest swell building 8@11 and a secondary south swell 6@13 sec.  Friday into Sunday - probably a mess - large storm south swell comes in 14@9 seconds while a bigger west swell fills in over the top of it peaking at 14ft@13 sec.  Swell direction from the south will mostly be 170 deg + while the west swell will be 275 deg.   Not seeing anything but south winds through Sunday night.   Cya in the water.   

UPDATED FORECAST - 12-23

 Parade of storms continues through the end of the week with heavy rain, strong winds and ultimately some very large storm surf to come with it starting tomorrow night.  This will be south swell from the storm direction and likely peak at 16-18 ft @10 seconds.   Large and raw.   A good size west swell will take over late week into the weekend at around 14ft @14 seconds.  High pressure looks to build back in "briefly" for the coming weekend.   More weather on the way between Christmas and New Year's.  Plenty to ride if you know where to look - cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST 12-12

 Northwest swell continues today and will fade into the weekend.   Deep water swell running around 6-8ft at 14 seconds.  Not much swell getting past Santa Cruz, but some.  Biggest SF and to the north.   Our long dry spell will end next week - as high pressure that has been camped in the region since Nov 20 finally moves to the east.  Storm door opens early in the week with on and off light rain forecast from Oregon to SF - not much rain making its way past Santa Cruz yet.   A strong system, possible atmospheric river in fact, sets up for next weekend and that will bring heavier more widespread precipitation.  Swell will stay small after this weekend and then start to increase again by the middle of next week.  Winds will be highly variable and shuffling around from south to north to west and back to south all next week as fronts come ashore.   Cya in the water.  

UPDATED FORECAST - THANKSGIVING AND BEYOND

 Happy Thanksgiving.   Surf starting out smallish this week as a mix of southwest and northwest swells continue to fade - 3-4ft@11-12 seconds from 300 is the nw and around 2ft@13 from 190 on the southwest.  Incoming swell tonight will start to push things back up later Thursday and Friday - peaking around 10@14 for Friday.   Looks like a series of larger swells roll in later in the weekend and into next week.   As always - surf this time of year will be much bigger north of SF.   The storm track is taking a break and staying to the north and east of us - leaving CA high and dry for the most part in the extended.   Pattern might break down 2nd wk in December.   However, storm track remains active which is why we continue to see nice size swell trains.  Winds are light the next two days and then we will see an uptick in north (offshore) winds potentially into the weekend as a low pressure system dives into the Great Basin.  Nice weather, but turning much cooler by Saturday.   Cya in the water.