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The overall credit impact from the US operation in Venezuela is limited, but the change raises geopolitical risk and poses longer-term implications for trade, investment and oil production.
Along with muted oil prices, liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports and data center power consumption will boost US gas demand in 2026, and energy security will become more visible in government policy.
While the removal of Venezuela’s longtime leader may help oil companies re-enter that market, the investment needed to increase production there delays any immediate impact on global oil prices.
Life insurers’ earnings will hold steady, with solid recurring returns from existing policies and strong demand for savings and retirement products offsetting flat economic growth.
While global economic growth is likely to stay subdued, insurers will maintain strong profitability and capitalization, underpinning their credit strength.
Even muted economic growth in the US, UK and euro area will support commercial real estate demand, yet loan delinquencies will remain high among underperforming properties.
Firms subject to new US export control requirements could double within a year following a shift to an ownership-based model. The change, intended to close loopholes, could open exporters to new compliance and operational risks.
Cloud companies are pouring billions of dollars into building data centers, but risks from soaring valuations to circular deals are worrying investors.
In the US, cooling wage gains and affordability pressures are eroding consumption growth. In Europe, political and trade tensions will continue to weigh on consumer confidence.
Strong AI and cloud computing demand will aid digital infrastructure, equipment and utility cost recovery charge ABS. For transportation ABS, values for used aircraft and vehicles will remain robust.
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