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A thread 🧵
$BTC ETFs pulled in nearly $1bn on 21 September.
A three-day run of $1.59bn has more than reversed the $746m pulled around the Fed hike.
September is now $1.45bn in the green, though one day carried most of it.
$BTC is up 47% off the July low, and holders still aren't cashing out.
Adjusted SOPR, which shows whether coins are moving at a profit or a loss, is near 1.01, barely above breakeven, versus 4% at the August breakout.
This time there is barely any selling to absorb.
$BTC just closed back above its 50w average for the first time in about 45 weeks.
For many trend traders, that is the line between bull and bear.
Price is now near $86,000, well above the average at $78,255, but that line is still falling.
It confirms only once it turns up.
$BTC needs three things to validate a breakout.
Net taker buying
Expanding coin-denominated OI
Continued ETF inflows
A close below $77,100 invalidates the structure, exposing the True Market Mean at $76,677.
Bitfinex Alpha in @Cointelegraph