1/ If you’re a founder you’ve probably heard someone say “oh, I’ve seen this idea before - it didn’t work” or “isn’t this just like that other thing that person/company X tried?”
Yesterday, the founder of a well-known, successful company called me to reference check two people he was considering for a senior role. He wasn’t looking for reassurance. He was genuinely trying to understand them, including anything that might cause him to reconsider either
unpopular opinion: the generational companies will come from these "slow growth" / "small tam" startups
- building from first principles of networks and defensability, not chasing low retention growth
- niche TAM's will be 100x bigger than expected. VCs always get TAM wrong.
2 interesting arbs right now in VC:
“Slow” growth - everyone is obsessed with funding the companies going 1 to 10m+ in ARR, lots of overlooked businesses going 1 to 3m.
“Small” TAMs - everyone is obsessed with funding the next trillion-dollar companies. Lots of great outcomes
unpopular opinion: the solution is networks not verticalization. network effects have changed dramatically with AI but they are still the best (only?) form of defensability from both the AI labs and the inevitable competition