Clyma

Clyma is a climate-risk prediction market on Solana Devnet. It combines an interactive geographic globe with a pooled binary market program: users explore climate scenarios generated by Gemini AI, inspect evidence and resolution rules, connect a Phantom-compatible wallet, and trade YES or NO positions in Devnet SOL.

A demo/prod mode toggle lets you switch between curated example markets with rich price history and live Gemini-generated markets backed by MongoDB.

Prototype only. Clyma is not a production financial service. Devnet SOL has no monetary value.

npm install
cp .env.example .env
# Fill in GEMINI_API_KEY and MONGODB_URI in .env
npm run dev

Open http://localhost:3000.

To set up on-chain markets, run the seed script:

solana airdrop 2
node scripts/setup.mjs

A toggle in the sidebar switches between:

• Prod mode (default): Gemini-generated climate markets served from MongoDB. Markets are mapped to on-chain PDAs at IDs 2001–2024.
• Demo mode: Curated example markets with scaled volume (10x), 7-point price history charts, evidence links, and simulated trades. Ideal for demos and testing. No on-chain verification in this mode.

app/api/                  REST API routes
components/globe/         Interactive globe
components/markets/       Market list, details, chart
components/trading/       Purchase review, settlement
components/providers/     Market, wallet, position, globe state
hooks/                    AI forecasts, market program hooks
lib/markets/              Types, calculations, Gemini, demo data
lib/solana/               Config, encoding, PDAs, IDL, instructions
lib/db/                   MongoDB connection, collections, repositories
programs/climate_market/  Anchor program
scripts/                  DB seeding, on-chain market setup

YES and NO deposits enter one program-owned market vault. Before resolution:

YES probability = total YES pool / total market pool
NO probability  = total NO pool  / total market pool

After an authorized resolver records an outcome, each winning wallet receives a proportional share:

user payout = user winning position × total market pool ÷ total winning-side pool

The program uses u128 arithmetic with checked math, rounding down to whole lamports. Cancelled markets allow reclaiming original deposits.

Program Derived Addresses for:

initialize_protocol, create_market, fund_market, buy_yes, buy_no, close_market, resolve_market, claim_winnings, refund_cancelled

Requirements: Node.js 22.13+, npm, Phantom browser extension (optional).

cp .env.example .env
npm install
npm run dev

NEXT_PUBLIC_SOLANA_NETWORK=devnet
NEXT_PUBLIC_SOLANA_RPC_URL=
NEXT_PUBLIC_PROGRAM_ID=EkcwkAzNUCGRcKCA5WJc7GCtUXooubkm3ktesBWQXPBt
MONGODB_URI=
GEMINI_API_KEY=
GEMINI_MODEL=gemini-3.5-flash
GEMINI_MARKET_COUNT=24

Prod mode requires MONGODB_URI and GEMINI_API_KEY. Demo mode works without either — it serves the bundled demo catalogue.

npm run format:check
npm run lint
npm run typecheck
npm test
npm run build

Or run all:

npm run check

The program is pinned to Anchor 0.30.1. Install the toolchain:

cargo install --git https://github.com/solana-foundation/anchor --tag v0.30.1 avm --locked
avm install 0.30.1
avm use 0.30.1
solana-install init 1.18.8

Run Anchor tests:

anchor build
npm run test:anchor

1. Fund a Devnet wallet:

   solana config set --url devnet
   solana airdrop 2

2. Deploy the program:

   anchor deploy --provider.cluster devnet

3. Initialize protocol, create markets, and seed MongoDB:

   node scripts/setup.mjs

4. Set NEXT_PUBLIC_PROGRAM_ID in .env and start the app.

TerraForm incorporates a fine-tuned GRPO (Group Relative Policy Optimization) climate forecasting engine trained on meteorological resolution rules and historical probability outcomes.

• Brier Accuracy Gain: Our 4B fine-tuned GRPO model achieves 0.8048 Inverted Brier, outperforming both the un-tuned Base SFT Model (0.7326) and MiniMax-M3 (0.7768).
• 60% Lower Calibration Error: Reduces Expected Calibration Error (ECE) from 0.2913 down to 0.1167, remaining tightly aligned to the ideal $y=x$ calibration diagonal.
• RAG & Real-Time Evidence: Integrated with Tavily web retrieval to fetch live news context, URLs, and snippets prior to probability generation.

GET  /api/markets
GET  /api/markets/:id
GET  /api/markets/:id/history
GET  /api/markets/region/:continent
POST /api/markets/create
POST /api/predict
GET  /api/users/:wallet/positions
GET  /api/users/:wallet/activity
POST /api/index-transaction
GET  /api/auth/challenge
POST /api/auth/verify
GET  /api/me/positions
GET  /api/me/activity

• No private keys or seed phrases are requested or stored
• Wallet signatures remain inside the browser adapter
• Deterministic PDAs with Anchor constraints
• Checked arithmetic on all pool operations
• On-chain state is authoritative — not browser storage or API metadata

• Resolution is permissioned; no oracle or dispute process
• No order book or limit orders (pooled model only)
• Integer settlement can leave sub-lamport dust in vaults
• Only Phantom wallet and native SOL are wired
• Anchor tests require Rust, Solana CLI, and a local validator

• Durable event indexing and on-chain pool snapshots
• Stablecoin settlement
• Multisig/oracle resolution with dispute window
• Additional wallet adapters
• Production observability and independent program review