Prediction Markets

Prediction Markets: Real-time Data & Volume Aggregator

Our live dashboard tracks the prediction market landscape in real-time, comparing Kalshi and Polymarket across the metrics that matter. Track daily, weekly and YTD volume across individual contracts. This includes active markets, transaction counts, and category-level breakdowns. Kalshi crossed $12B in monthly volume in March and Polymarket crossed $10B, both hitting new all-time highs.  If you are looking for an exchange, see our list of prediction markets here.

Prediction markets are a real-time signal for everything from Fed decisions to election outcomes. Whether you’re comparing Kalshi vs. Polymarket for arbitrage opportunities or tracking which platform dominates specific categories, this is your central hub.

Live Data
Weekly Notional Volume Total USD value of contracts traded during the last complete calendar week.
$5.0B
K Kalshi
$2.7B (55%)
P Polymarket
$2.2B (45%)
U Polymarket US
$5.9M (0%)
Active Markets Number of prediction markets currently open for trading on each platform.
321,617
K Kalshi
270,270 (84%)
P Polymarket
50,439 (16%)
U Polymarket US
908 (0%)
Weekly Transactions Total number of trades executed during the last complete calendar week.
45,347,255
K Kalshi
19,027,366 (42%)
P Polymarket
26,319,889 (58%)
U Polymarket US
— (—)
Open Interest Total USD value of unsettled contracts currently held by traders.
$992.5M
K Kalshi
$534.4M (54%)
P Polymarket
$449.2M (45%)
U Polymarket US
$8.9M (1%)
Last updated: April 4, 2026 at 11:53 PM PDT

Kalshi
CFTC Regulated
Volume (rolling)
24H $207.0M -15.5%
7D $1.4B -7.5%
30D $6.4B -3.7%
Top Categories (24h)
1 ⚽ Sports $184.5M
2 ₿ Crypto $18.0M
3 🌍 World $2.5M
Top Markets (24h)
1
Michigan at Arizona
🏀 Sports $19.4M
2
Illinois at UConn
🏀 Sports $16.9M
3
San Antonio at Denver
🏀 Sports $9.2M
Polymarket
Decentralized Platform
Volume (rolling)
24H $268.2M -13.9%
7D $2.2B -21.3%
30D $11.9B +47.9%
Top Categories (24h)
1 ⚽ Sports $135.8M
2 🏛️ Politics $50.2M
3 📦 Misc $43.5M
Top Markets (24h)
1
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
⚽ Sports $8.4M
2
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona
⚽ Sports $7.3M
3
Spurs vs. Nuggets
🏀 Sports $6.5M

Top Markets by Volume

Highest trading activity across platforms

1
Michigan at Arizona
Kalshi 🏀 Sports
Michigan Outcome
$19.4M
—
Apr 4
Closed
1

Michigan at Arizona

Kalshi
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Michigan
Volume $19.4M
2
Illinois at UConn
Kalshi 🏀 Sports
UConn Outcome
$16.9M
—
Apr 4
Closed
2

Illinois at UConn

Kalshi
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome UConn
Volume $16.9M
3
San Antonio at Denver
Kalshi 🏀 Sports
Denver Nuggets Outcome
$9.2M
—
Apr 4
Closed
3

San Antonio at Denver

Kalshi
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Denver Nuggets
Volume $9.2M
4
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 16%
$8.4M
$6.2M
Jul 19
Active
4

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 16%
France 14%
England 12%
Argentina 9%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 5%
Norway 3%
Netherlands 3%
Japan 2%
Morocco 2%
Colombia 2%
Belgium 2%
Cape Verde 1%
Uzbekistan 1%
Iran 1%
New Zealand 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Qatar 1%
Curaçao 1%
Switzerland 1%
Haiti 1%
South Alabama 1%
Uruguay 1%
South Korea 1%
Croatia 1%
Egypt 1%
Congo DR 1%
Algeria 1%
Ecuador 1%
Ghana 1%
Scotland 1%
Paraguay 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Canada 1%
Jordan 1%
South Africa 1%
Australia 1%
Mexico 1%
Tunisia 1%
Sweden 1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 1%
Senegal 1%
Austria 1%
Panama 1%
Cezchia 1%
Iraq 1%
Turkiye 1%
Volume
$8.4M
Open Int.
$6.2M
Ends
Jul 19
5
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
FC Barcelona Outcome
$7.3M
—
Apr 4
Closed
5

Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome FC Barcelona
Volume $7.3M
6
Spurs vs. Nuggets
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Nuggets Outcome
$6.5M
—
Apr 4
Closed
6

Spurs vs. Nuggets

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Nuggets
Volume $6.5M
7
Timberwolves vs. 76ers
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
76ers Outcome
$5.6M
—
Apr 3
Closed
7

Timberwolves vs. 76ers

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome 76ers
Volume $5.6M
8
Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals
Kalshi 🏏 Sports
Rajasthan Royals Outcome
$5.4M
—
Apr 4
Closed
8

Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals

Kalshi
🏏 Sports Closed
Outcome Rajasthan Royals
Volume $5.4M
9
US forces enter Iran by..?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
April 30 96%
$5.1M
$11.3M
Dec 30
Active
9

US forces enter Iran by..?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
April 30 96%
December 31 96%
Volume
$5.1M
Open Int.
$11.3M
Ends
Dec 30
10
Michigan at Arizona: Spread
Kalshi 🏀 Sports
Michigan by >1.5 pts Outcome
$4.4M
—
Apr 4
Closed
10

Michigan at Arizona: Spread

Kalshi
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Michigan by >1.5 pts
Volume $4.4M
11
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 24%
$4.1M
$12.1M
Nov 6
Active
11

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8%
Jon Ossoff 8%
Kamala Harris 4%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
Jon Stewart 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
Mark Kelly 2%
Ro Khanna 2%
James Talarico 2%
Hunter Biden 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
MrBeast 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Ruben Gallego 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
Cory Booker 1%
George Clooney 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Volume
$4.1M
Open Int.
$12.1M
Ends
Nov 6
12
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 37%
$4.0M
$11.2M
Nov 6
Active
12

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 37%
Marco Rubio 20%
Tucker Carlson 5%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Donald Trump Jr. 2%
Glenn Youngkin 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
John Thune 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Joe Kent 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Ted Cruz 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Volume
$4.0M
Open Int.
$11.2M
Ends
Nov 6
13
Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?
Polymarket 🔬 Tech
260–279 Outcome
$3.9M
—
Apr 3
Closed
13

Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Polymarket
🔬 Tech Closed
Outcome 260–279
Volume $3.9M
14
RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
RCD Mallorca Outcome
$3.6M
—
Apr 4
Closed
14

RCD Mallorca vs. Real Madrid CF

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome RCD Mallorca
Volume $3.6M
15
Detroit at Philadelphia
Kalshi 🏀 Sports
Detroit Pistons Outcome
$3.6M
—
Apr 4
Closed
15

Detroit at Philadelphia

Kalshi
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Detroit Pistons
Volume $3.6M
16
Bulls vs. Knicks
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Knicks Outcome
$3.5M
—
Apr 3
Closed
16

Bulls vs. Knicks

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Knicks
Volume $3.5M
17
F1 Drivers' Champion
Polymarket 🏁 Sports
Will George Russell be the 2026 43%
$3.4M
$1.2M
Dec 5
Active
17

F1 Drivers' Champion

Polymarket
🏁 Sports Active
Will George Russell be the 2026 43%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 32%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 7%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 5%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 4%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 2%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 1%
Volume
$3.4M
Open Int.
$1.2M
Ends
Dec 5
18
Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Connecticut Huskies Outcome
$3.4M
—
Apr 4
Closed
18

Connecticut Huskies vs. Illinois Fighting Illini

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Connecticut Huskies
Volume $3.4M
19
Wizards vs. Heat
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Heat Outcome
$3.2M
—
Apr 4
Closed
19

Wizards vs. Heat

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Heat
Volume $3.2M
20
Men's College Basketball Champion
Kalshi 🏀 Sports
Michigan 73%
$3.2M
$21.8M
Apr 21
Active
20

Men's College Basketball Champion

Kalshi
🏀 Sports Active
Michigan 73%
UConn 28%
Volume
$3.2M
Open Int.
$21.8M
Ends
Apr 21
21
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
$3.1M
$2.5M
Jun 30
Active
21

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
San Antonio Spurs 20%
Boston Celtics 11%
Denver Nuggets 9%
Detroit Pistons 5%
Cleveland Cavaliers 5%
New York Knicks 4%
Houston Rockets 2%
Minnesota Timberwolves 2%
Los Angeles Clippers 1%
Los Angeles Lakers 1%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Charlotte Hornets 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Miami Heat 1%
Volume
$3.1M
Open Int.
$2.5M
Ends
Jun 30
22
Bitcoin above ___ on April 3?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$66,000 Outcome
$3.0M
—
Apr 3
Closed
22

Bitcoin above ___ on April 3?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $66,000
Volume $3.0M
23
Pistons vs. 76ers
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Pistons Outcome
$2.9M
—
Apr 4
Closed
23

Pistons vs. 76ers

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Pistons
Volume $2.9M
24
Bitcoin above ___ on April 4?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
$58,000 Outcome
$2.8M
—
Apr 4
Closed
24

Bitcoin above ___ on April 4?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome $58,000
Volume $2.8M
25
Michigan at Arizona: Total Points
Kalshi 🏀 Sports
Over 142.5 Outcome
$2.7M
—
Apr 4
Closed
25

Michigan at Arizona: Total Points

Kalshi
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Over 142.5
Volume $2.7M
26
Magic vs. Mavericks
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Magic Outcome
$2.6M
—
Apr 3
Closed
26

Magic vs. Mavericks

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Magic
Volume $2.6M
27
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 70%
$2.6M
$14.2M
Dec 30
Active
27

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 70%
June 30 46%
May 31 35%
April 30 18%
April 15 5%
April 7 1%
Volume
$2.6M
Open Int.
$14.2M
Ends
Dec 30
28
Celtics vs. Bucks
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Celtics Outcome
$2.5M
—
Apr 3
Closed
28

Celtics vs. Bucks

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Celtics
Volume $2.5M
29
Miami vs New York Y
Kalshi ⚾ Sports
New York Yankees Outcome
$2.4M
—
Apr 4
Closed
29

Miami vs New York Y

Kalshi
⚾ Sports Closed
Outcome New York Yankees
Volume $2.4M
30
Real Betis Balompié vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Draw Outcome
$2.4M
—
Apr 4
Closed
30

Real Betis Balompié vs. RCD Espanyol de Barcelona

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome Draw
Volume $2.4M
1
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 16%
$90.3M
$6.2M
Jul 19
Active
1

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 16%
France 14%
England 12%
Argentina 9%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 5%
Norway 3%
Netherlands 3%
Japan 2%
Morocco 2%
Colombia 2%
Belgium 2%
Cape Verde 1%
Uzbekistan 1%
Iran 1%
New Zealand 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Qatar 1%
Curaçao 1%
Switzerland 1%
Haiti 1%
South Alabama 1%
Uruguay 1%
South Korea 1%
Croatia 1%
Egypt 1%
Congo DR 1%
Algeria 1%
Ecuador 1%
Ghana 1%
Scotland 1%
Paraguay 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Canada 1%
Jordan 1%
South Africa 1%
Australia 1%
Mexico 1%
Tunisia 1%
Sweden 1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 1%
Senegal 1%
Austria 1%
Panama 1%
Cezchia 1%
Iraq 1%
Turkiye 1%
Volume
$90.3M
Open Int.
$6.2M
Ends
Jul 19
2
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 24%
$50.7M
$12.1M
Nov 6
Active
2

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8%
Jon Ossoff 8%
Kamala Harris 4%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
Jon Stewart 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
Mark Kelly 2%
Ro Khanna 2%
James Talarico 2%
Hunter Biden 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
MrBeast 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Ruben Gallego 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
Cory Booker 1%
George Clooney 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Volume
$50.7M
Open Int.
$12.1M
Ends
Nov 6
3
US forces enter Iran by..?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
April 30 96%
$34.3M
$11.3M
Dec 30
Active
3

US forces enter Iran by..?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
April 30 96%
December 31 96%
Volume
$34.3M
Open Int.
$11.3M
Ends
Dec 30
4
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 37%
$32.6M
$11.2M
Nov 6
Active
4

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 37%
Marco Rubio 20%
Tucker Carlson 5%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Donald Trump Jr. 2%
Glenn Youngkin 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
John Thune 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Joe Kent 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Ted Cruz 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Volume
$32.6M
Open Int.
$11.2M
Ends
Nov 6
5
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 70%
$24.1M
$14.2M
Dec 30
Active
5

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 70%
June 30 46%
May 31 35%
April 30 18%
April 15 5%
April 7 1%
Volume
$24.1M
Open Int.
$14.2M
Ends
Dec 30
6
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 18%
$23.4M
$28.9M
Nov 6
Active
6

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 18%
Gavin Newsom 17%
Marco Rubio 10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6%
Tucker Carlson 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Jon Ossoff 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Josh Shapiro 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
LeBron James 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Andy Beshear 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
JB Pritzker 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
James Talarico 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Thomas Massie 1%
Volume
$23.4M
Open Int.
$28.9M
Ends
Nov 6
7
Eurovision Winner 2026
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
Finland 39%
$20.8M
$1.4M
May 15
Active
7

Eurovision Winner 2026

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Finland 39%
France 11%
Denmark 10%
Greece 7%
Australia 7%
Israel 4%
Sweden 4%
Italy 3%
Romania 3%
Ukraine 2%
Estonia 1%
Portugal 1%
Azerbaijan 1%
Serbia 1%
Montenegro 1%
Albania 1%
United Kingdom 1%
San Marino 1%
Georgia 1%
Poland 1%
Austria 1%
Latvia 1%
Armenia 1%
Norway 1%
Czechia 1%
Lithuania 1%
Belgium 1%
Bulgaria 1%
Switzerland 1%
Cyprus 1%
Moldova 1%
Germany 1%
Malta 1%
Croatia 1%
Luxembourg 1%
Volume
$20.8M
Open Int.
$1.4M
Ends
May 15
8
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
$20.0M
$2.5M
Jun 30
Active
8

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
San Antonio Spurs 20%
Boston Celtics 11%
Denver Nuggets 9%
Detroit Pistons 5%
Cleveland Cavaliers 5%
New York Knicks 4%
Houston Rockets 2%
Minnesota Timberwolves 2%
Los Angeles Clippers 1%
Los Angeles Lakers 1%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Charlotte Hornets 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Miami Heat 1%
Volume
$20.0M
Open Int.
$2.5M
Ends
Jun 30
9
F1 Drivers' Champion
Polymarket 🏁 Sports
Will George Russell be the 2026 43%
$17.7M
$1.2M
Dec 5
Active
9

F1 Drivers' Champion

Polymarket
🏁 Sports Active
Will George Russell be the 2026 43%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 32%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 7%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 5%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 4%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 2%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 1%
Volume
$17.7M
Open Int.
$1.2M
Ends
Dec 5
10
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
No Outcome
$15.4M
—
Mar 30
Closed
10

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome No
Volume $15.4M
11
Fed decision in April?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting 98%
$14.9M
$5.7M
Apr 28
Active
11

Fed decision in April?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting 98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$14.9M
Open Int.
$5.7M
Ends
Apr 28
12
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
No Outcome
$13.4M
—
Mar 31
Closed
12

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome No
Volume $13.4M
13
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Arizona Wildcats Outcome
$12.1M
—
Mar 28
Closed
13

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Arizona Wildcats
Volume $12.1M
14
Men's College Basketball Champion
Kalshi 🏀 Sports
Michigan 73%
$10.0M
$21.8M
Apr 21
Active
14

Men's College Basketball Champion

Kalshi
🏀 Sports Active
Michigan 73%
UConn 28%
Volume
$10.0M
Open Int.
$21.8M
Ends
Apr 21
15
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the 66%
$9.5M
$5.8M
Apr 11
Closing Soon
15

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closing Soon
Will the 66%
Volume
$9.5M
Open Int.
$5.8M
Ends
Apr 11
16
Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Michigan Wolverines Outcome
$9.3M
—
Mar 29
Closed
16

Tennessee Volunteers vs. Michigan Wolverines

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Michigan Wolverines
Volume $9.3M
17
Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Édouard Philippe 28%
$8.9M
$421.2K
Apr 29
Active
17

Next French Presidential Election

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Édouard Philippe 28%
Jordan Bardella 21%
Marine Le Pen 9%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 6%
David Lisnard 5%
Dominique de Villepin 4%
Sarah Knafo 3%
Raphaël Glucksmann 3%
Bruno Retailleau 3%
François Hollande 3%
Gabriel Attal 2%
Fabien Roussel 1%
Ségolène Royal 1%
Xavier Bertrand 1%
Manuel Bompard 1%
Olivier Faure 1%
Valérie Pécresse 1%
Michel Barnier 1%
Clémence Guetté 1%
François Bayrou 1%
Sébastien Lecornu 1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1%
Élisabeth Borne 1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet 1%
François Asselineau 1%
Clémentine Autain 1%
Carole Delga 1%
Juan Branco 1%
Bernard Cazeneuve 1%
François Ruffin 1%
Mathilde Panot 1%
Gérald Darmanin 1%
Jean Castex 1%
Éric Zemmour 1%
Marine Tondelier 1%
Laurent Wauquiez 1%
Volume
$8.9M
Open Int.
$421.2K
Ends
Apr 29
18
Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?
Polymarket 🔬 Tech
260–279 Outcome
$8.6M
—
Apr 3
Closed
18

Elon Musk # tweets March 27 - April 3, 2026?

Polymarket
🔬 Tech Closed
Outcome 260–279
Volume $8.6M
19
Brazil Presidential Election
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%
$8.2M
$1.6M
Oct 3
Active
19

Brazil Presidential Election

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%
Flávio Bolsonaro 38%
Renan Santos 7%
Fernando Haddad 5%
Ronaldo Caiado 3%
Tarcisio de Freitas 1%
Jair Bolsonaro 1%
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior 1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro 1%
Eduardo Leite 1%
Romeu Zema 1%
Camilo Santana 1%
Geraldo Alckmin 1%
Volume
$8.2M
Open Int.
$1.6M
Ends
Oct 3
20
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 69%
$8.2M
$1.8M
Apr 11
Closing Soon
20

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closing Soon
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 69%
Fidesz–KDNP 32%
the Momentum Movement (Momentum) 1%
Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) 1%
LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) 1%
the Democratic Coalition (DK) 1%
the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) 1%
Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) 1%
the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) 1%
Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) 1%
Volume
$8.2M
Open Int.
$1.8M
Ends
Apr 11
21
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30 4%
$7.8M
$8.7M
Apr 29
Active
21

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30 4%
Volume
$7.8M
Open Int.
$8.7M
Ends
Apr 29
22
Cavaliers vs. Lakers
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Lakers Outcome
$7.7M
—
Mar 31
Closed
22

Cavaliers vs. Lakers

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Lakers
Volume $7.7M
23
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
FC Barcelona Outcome
$7.5M
—
Apr 4
Closed
23

Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Closed
Outcome FC Barcelona
Volume $7.5M
24
Lakers vs. Thunder
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Thunder Outcome
$6.9M
—
Apr 2
Closed
24

Lakers vs. Thunder

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Thunder
Volume $6.9M
25
Spurs vs. Nuggets
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Nuggets Outcome
$6.6M
—
Apr 4
Closed
25

Spurs vs. Nuggets

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Nuggets
Volume $6.6M
26
Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Connecticut Huskies Outcome
$6.4M
—
Mar 29
Closed
26

Connecticut Huskies vs. Duke Blue Devils

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Connecticut Huskies
Volume $6.4M
27
Pistons vs. Thunder
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Thunder Outcome
$6.2M
—
Mar 30
Closed
27

Pistons vs. Thunder

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Thunder
Volume $6.2M
28
Augusta National Invitational - Winner
Polymarket ⛳ Sports
Scottie Scheffler 14%
$6.0M
$732.7K
Apr 12
Active
28

Augusta National Invitational - Winner

Polymarket
⛳ Sports Active
Scottie Scheffler 14%
Bryson Dechambeau 8%
Jon Rahm 8%
Rory McIlroy 7%
Ludvig Aberg 6%
Xander Schauffele 5%
Matt Fitzpatrick 4%
Cameron Young 4%
Justin Rose 3%
Hideki Matsuyama 3%
Tommy Fleetwood 3%
Akshay Bhatia 2%
Viktor Hovland 2%
Min Woo Lee 2%
Robert MacIntyre 2%
Jordan Spieth 2%
Sepp Straka 2%
Patrick Reed 2%
Brooks Koepka 2%
Collin Morikawa 2%
Will Zalatoris 2%
Phil Mickelson 1%
Tom Kim 1%
Taylor Pendrith 1%
Adam Scott 1%
Sergio Garcia 1%
Jason Day 1%
Max Homa 1%
Keegan Bradley 1%
Wyndham Clark 1%
Denny McCarthy 1%
Thomas Detry 1%
Shane Lowry 1%
Fred Couples 1%
Patrick Cantlay 1%
Tony Finau 1%
Sahith Theegala 1%
Sam Burns 1%
Zach Johnson 1%
Billy Horschel 1%
Byeong Hun An 1%
Nicolai Hojgaard 1%
Charl Schwartzel 1%
Bubba Watson 1%
Joaquin Niemann 1%
Dustin Johnson 1%
Brian Harman 1%
Tyrrell Hatton 1%
Davis Thompson 1%
Danny Willett 1%
Rasmus Hojgaard 1%
Corey Conners 1%
Russell Henley 1%
Justin Thomas 1%
Sungjae Im 1%
Cameron Smith 1%
Aaron Rai 1%
Maverick McNealy 1%
Volume
$6.0M
Open Int.
$732.7K
Ends
Apr 12
29
76ers vs. Heat
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Heat Outcome
$5.9M
—
Mar 30
Closed
29

76ers vs. Heat

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Heat
Volume $5.9M
30
Timberwolves vs. Pistons
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Pistons Outcome
$5.8M
—
Apr 2
Closed
30

Timberwolves vs. Pistons

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Pistons
Volume $5.8M
1
2026 FIFA World Cup Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Spain 16%
$241.7M
$6.2M
Jul 19
Active
1

2026 FIFA World Cup Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Spain 16%
France 14%
England 12%
Argentina 9%
Brazil 9%
Portugal 7%
Germany 5%
Norway 3%
Netherlands 3%
Japan 2%
Morocco 2%
Colombia 2%
Belgium 2%
Cape Verde 1%
Uzbekistan 1%
Iran 1%
New Zealand 1%
Saudi Arabia 1%
Qatar 1%
Curaçao 1%
Switzerland 1%
Haiti 1%
South Alabama 1%
Uruguay 1%
South Korea 1%
Croatia 1%
Egypt 1%
Congo DR 1%
Algeria 1%
Ecuador 1%
Ghana 1%
Scotland 1%
Paraguay 1%
Ivory Coast 1%
Canada 1%
Jordan 1%
South Africa 1%
Australia 1%
Mexico 1%
Tunisia 1%
Sweden 1%
Bosnia-Herzegovina 1%
Senegal 1%
Austria 1%
Panama 1%
Cezchia 1%
Iraq 1%
Turkiye 1%
Volume
$241.7M
Open Int.
$6.2M
Ends
Jul 19
2
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Gavin Newsom 24%
$217.1M
$12.1M
Nov 6
Active
2

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Gavin Newsom 24%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 8%
Jon Ossoff 8%
Kamala Harris 4%
Pete Buttigieg 4%
Josh Shapiro 4%
Jon Stewart 2%
Andy Beshear 2%
J.B. Pritzker 2%
Mark Kelly 2%
Ro Khanna 2%
James Talarico 2%
Hunter Biden 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
LeBron James 1%
Stephen A. Smith 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
MrBeast 1%
Liz Cheney 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Raphael Warnock 1%
Beto O’Rourke 1%
Bernie Sanders 1%
Andrew Yang 1%
Hillary Clinton 1%
Chelsea Clinton 1%
Phil Murphy 1%
Ruben Gallego 1%
Barack Obama 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Rahm Emanuel 1%
Oprah Winfrey 1%
Jasmine Crockett 1%
Cory Booker 1%
George Clooney 1%
John Fetterman 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Gina Raimondo 1%
Jared Polis 1%
Mark Cuban 1%
Roy Cooper 1%
Chris Murphy 1%
Volume
$217.1M
Open Int.
$12.1M
Ends
Nov 6
3
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
J.D. Vance 37%
$166.7M
$11.2M
Nov 6
Active
3

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
J.D. Vance 37%
Marco Rubio 20%
Tucker Carlson 5%
Ron DeSantis 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Donald Trump Jr. 2%
Glenn Youngkin 2%
Thomas Massie 2%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Brian Kemp 1%
Kristi Noem 1%
Mike Pence 1%
Matt Gaetz 1%
Byron Donalds 1%
John Thune 1%
Erika Kirk 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Joe Kent 1%
Steve Bannon 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
Elise Stefanik 1%
Tom Brady 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Rand Paul 1%
Katie Britt 1%
Marjorie Taylor Greene 1%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders 1%
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Josh Hawley 1%
Ted Cruz 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Volume
$166.7M
Open Int.
$11.2M
Ends
Nov 6
4
Presidential Election Winner 2028
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
JD Vance 18%
$127.8M
$28.9M
Nov 6
Active
4

Presidential Election Winner 2028

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
JD Vance 18%
Gavin Newsom 17%
Marco Rubio 10%
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez 6%
Tucker Carlson 3%
Kamala Harris 3%
Jon Ossoff 3%
Donald Trump 2%
Josh Shapiro 2%
Pete Buttigieg 2%
Ron DeSantis 2%
Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson 1%
LeBron James 1%
Kim Kardashian 1%
Elon Musk 1%
Tim Walz 1%
Stephen Smith 1%
Michelle Obama 1%
Nikki Haley 1%
Zohran Mamdani 1%
Donald Trump Jr. 1%
Ivanka Trump 1%
Greg Abbott 1%
Eric Trump 1%
Andy Beshear 1%
Glenn Youngkin 1%
Ro Khanna 1%
Vivek Ramaswamy 1%
Wes Moore 1%
Tulsi Gabbard 1%
JB Pritzker 1%
Gretchen Whitmer 1%
Jamie Dimon 1%
James Talarico 1%
Pete Hegseth 1%
Thomas Massie 1%
Volume
$127.8M
Open Int.
$28.9M
Ends
Nov 6
5
2026 NBA Champion
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
$73.4M
$2.5M
Jun 30
Active
5

2026 NBA Champion

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Active
Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
San Antonio Spurs 20%
Boston Celtics 11%
Denver Nuggets 9%
Detroit Pistons 5%
Cleveland Cavaliers 5%
New York Knicks 4%
Houston Rockets 2%
Minnesota Timberwolves 2%
Los Angeles Clippers 1%
Los Angeles Lakers 1%
Golden State Warriors 1%
Phoenix Suns 1%
Charlotte Hornets 1%
Portland Trail Blazers 1%
Orlando Magic 1%
Atlanta Hawks 1%
Toronto Raptors 1%
Philadelphia 76ers 1%
Miami Heat 1%
Volume
$73.4M
Open Int.
$2.5M
Ends
Jun 30
6
F1 Drivers' Champion
Polymarket 🏁 Sports
Will George Russell be the 2026 43%
$67.7M
$1.2M
Dec 5
Active
6

F1 Drivers' Champion

Polymarket
🏁 Sports Active
Will George Russell be the 2026 43%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 32%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 7%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 5%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 4%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 3%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 2%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 1%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 1%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 1%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 1%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 1%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 1%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 1%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 1%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 1%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 1%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 1%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 1%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 1%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 1%
Volume
$67.7M
Open Int.
$1.2M
Ends
Dec 5
7
What price will Bitcoin hit in March?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
No Outcome
$60.2M
—
Mar 31
Closed
7

What price will Bitcoin hit in March?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome No
Volume $60.2M
8
Eurovision Winner 2026
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
Finland 39%
$60.1M
$1.4M
May 15
Active
8

Eurovision Winner 2026

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Finland 39%
France 11%
Denmark 10%
Greece 7%
Australia 7%
Israel 4%
Sweden 4%
Italy 3%
Romania 3%
Ukraine 2%
Estonia 1%
Portugal 1%
Azerbaijan 1%
Serbia 1%
Montenegro 1%
Albania 1%
United Kingdom 1%
San Marino 1%
Georgia 1%
Poland 1%
Austria 1%
Latvia 1%
Armenia 1%
Norway 1%
Czechia 1%
Lithuania 1%
Belgium 1%
Bulgaria 1%
Switzerland 1%
Cyprus 1%
Moldova 1%
Germany 1%
Malta 1%
Croatia 1%
Luxembourg 1%
Volume
$60.1M
Open Int.
$1.4M
Ends
May 15
9
Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 69%
$55.8M
$1.8M
Apr 11
Closing Soon
9

Hungary Parliamentary Election Winner

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closing Soon
TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) 69%
Fidesz–KDNP 32%
the Momentum Movement (Momentum) 1%
Our Homeland Movement (Mi Hazánk) 1%
LMP – Hungary’s Green Party (LMP) 1%
the Democratic Coalition (DK) 1%
the Christian Democratic People’s Party (KDNP) 1%
Movement for a Better Hungary (Jobbik) 1%
the Hungarian Socialist Party (MSZP) 1%
Dialogue for Hungary (Párbeszéd) 1%
Volume
$55.8M
Open Int.
$1.8M
Ends
Apr 11
10
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
No Outcome
$52.5M
—
Mar 30
Closed
10

Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closed
Outcome No
Volume $52.5M
11
Fed decision in April?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting 98%
$46.3M
$5.7M
Apr 28
Active
11

Fed decision in April?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting 98%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 meeting 1%
Volume
$46.3M
Open Int.
$5.7M
Ends
Apr 28
12
US forces enter Iran by..?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
April 30 96%
$45.3M
$11.3M
Dec 30
Active
12

US forces enter Iran by..?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
April 30 96%
December 31 96%
Volume
$45.3M
Open Int.
$11.3M
Ends
Dec 30
13
US x Iran ceasefire by...?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
December 31 70%
$41.1M
$14.2M
Dec 30
Active
13

US x Iran ceasefire by...?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
December 31 70%
June 30 46%
May 31 35%
April 30 18%
April 15 5%
April 7 1%
Volume
$41.1M
Open Int.
$14.2M
Ends
Dec 30
14
Augusta National Invitational - Winner
Polymarket ⛳ Sports
Scottie Scheffler 14%
$40.1M
$732.7K
Apr 12
Active
14

Augusta National Invitational - Winner

Polymarket
⛳ Sports Active
Scottie Scheffler 14%
Bryson Dechambeau 8%
Jon Rahm 8%
Rory McIlroy 7%
Ludvig Aberg 6%
Xander Schauffele 5%
Matt Fitzpatrick 4%
Cameron Young 4%
Justin Rose 3%
Hideki Matsuyama 3%
Tommy Fleetwood 3%
Akshay Bhatia 2%
Viktor Hovland 2%
Min Woo Lee 2%
Robert MacIntyre 2%
Jordan Spieth 2%
Sepp Straka 2%
Patrick Reed 2%
Brooks Koepka 2%
Collin Morikawa 2%
Will Zalatoris 2%
Phil Mickelson 1%
Tom Kim 1%
Taylor Pendrith 1%
Adam Scott 1%
Sergio Garcia 1%
Jason Day 1%
Max Homa 1%
Keegan Bradley 1%
Wyndham Clark 1%
Denny McCarthy 1%
Thomas Detry 1%
Shane Lowry 1%
Fred Couples 1%
Patrick Cantlay 1%
Tony Finau 1%
Sahith Theegala 1%
Sam Burns 1%
Zach Johnson 1%
Billy Horschel 1%
Byeong Hun An 1%
Nicolai Hojgaard 1%
Charl Schwartzel 1%
Bubba Watson 1%
Joaquin Niemann 1%
Dustin Johnson 1%
Brian Harman 1%
Tyrrell Hatton 1%
Davis Thompson 1%
Danny Willett 1%
Rasmus Hojgaard 1%
Corey Conners 1%
Russell Henley 1%
Justin Thomas 1%
Sungjae Im 1%
Cameron Smith 1%
Aaron Rai 1%
Maverick McNealy 1%
Volume
$40.1M
Open Int.
$732.7K
Ends
Apr 12
15
Men's College Basketball Champion
Kalshi 🏀 Sports
Michigan 73%
$36.4M
$21.8M
Apr 21
Active
15

Men's College Basketball Champion

Kalshi
🏀 Sports Active
Michigan 73%
UConn 28%
Volume
$36.4M
Open Int.
$21.8M
Ends
Apr 21
16
LA LIGA Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Barcelona 94%
$31.3M
$694.3K
May 29
Active
16

LA LIGA Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Barcelona 94%
Real Madrid 5%
Atletico Madrid 1%
Villarreal 1%
Volume
$31.3M
Open Int.
$694.3K
Ends
May 29
17
NBA MVP
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 94%
$25.1M
$1.1M
Jun 9
Active
17

NBA MVP

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Active
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 94%
Victor Wembanyama 5%
Nikola Jokic 1%
Luka Doncic 1%
Anthony Edwards 1%
Cade Cunningham 1%
Tyrese Maxey 1%
Jaylen Brown 1%
Cooper Flagg 1%
Donovan Mitchell 1%
Giannis Antetokounmpo 1%
Jalen Brunson 1%
Kawhi Leonard 1%
Devin Booker 1%
LeBron James 1%
Ja Morant 1%
Trae Young 1%
Anthony Davis 1%
Volume
$25.1M
Open Int.
$1.1M
Ends
Jun 9
18
UEFA Champions League Winner
Polymarket ⚽ Sports
Arsenal 25%
$23.5M
$1.8M
May 30
Active
18

UEFA Champions League Winner

Polymarket
⚽ Sports Active
Arsenal 25%
Bayern Munich 23%
Barcelona 17%
PSG 14%
Real Madrid 11%
Liverpool 7%
Atletico Madrid 4%
Sporting 1%
Club Brugge 1%
Volume
$23.5M
Open Int.
$1.8M
Ends
May 30
19
Next French Presidential Election
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Édouard Philippe 28%
$21.1M
$421.2K
Apr 29
Active
19

Next French Presidential Election

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Édouard Philippe 28%
Jordan Bardella 21%
Marine Le Pen 9%
Jean-Luc Mélenchon 6%
David Lisnard 5%
Dominique de Villepin 4%
Sarah Knafo 3%
Raphaël Glucksmann 3%
Bruno Retailleau 3%
François Hollande 3%
Gabriel Attal 2%
Fabien Roussel 1%
Ségolène Royal 1%
Xavier Bertrand 1%
Manuel Bompard 1%
Olivier Faure 1%
Valérie Pécresse 1%
Michel Barnier 1%
Clémence Guetté 1%
François Bayrou 1%
Sébastien Lecornu 1%
Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1%
Élisabeth Borne 1%
Yaël Braun-Pivet 1%
François Asselineau 1%
Clémentine Autain 1%
Carole Delga 1%
Juan Branco 1%
Bernard Cazeneuve 1%
François Ruffin 1%
Mathilde Panot 1%
Gérald Darmanin 1%
Jean Castex 1%
Éric Zemmour 1%
Marine Tondelier 1%
Laurent Wauquiez 1%
Volume
$21.1M
Open Int.
$421.2K
Ends
Apr 29
20
Next Prime Minister of Hungary
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the 66%
$20.3M
$5.8M
Apr 11
Closing Soon
20

Next Prime Minister of Hungary

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Closing Soon
Will the 66%
Volume
$20.3M
Open Int.
$5.8M
Ends
Apr 11
21
Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?
Polymarket 📊 Economics
Kevin Warsh 97%
$20.2M
$3.5M
Oct 30
Active
21

Who will be confirmed as Fed Chair?

Polymarket
📊 Economics Active
Kevin Warsh 97%
Judy Shelton 1%
Michelle Bowman 1%
Christopher Waller 1%
Stephen Miran 1%
Rick Reider 1%
Scott Bessent 1%
Kevin Hassett 1%
Jerome Powell 1%
Volume
$20.2M
Open Int.
$3.5M
Ends
Oct 30
22
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30 4%
$20.1M
$8.7M
Apr 29
Active
22

Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30 4%
Volume
$20.1M
Open Int.
$8.7M
Ends
Apr 29
23
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30 14%
$18.2M
$8.3M
Jun 29
Active
23

Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30 14%
Volume
$18.2M
Open Int.
$8.3M
Ends
Jun 29
24
2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion
Polymarket 🏒 Sports
Colorado Avalanche 19%
$18.1M
$630.9K
Jun 29
Active
24

2026 NHL Stanley Cup Champion

Polymarket
🏒 Sports Active
Colorado Avalanche 19%
Tampa Bay Lightning 14%
Carolina Hurricanes 12%
Edmonton Oilers 9%
Dallas Stars 8%
Montreal Canadiens 7%
Vegas Golden Knights 6%
Minnesota Wild 5%
Buffalo Sabres 5%
Pittsburgh Penguins 3%
Ottawa Senators 3%
Boston Bruins 2%
Anaheim Ducks 2%
Utah Mammoth 2%
New Jersey Devils 1%
San Jose Sharks 1%
Winnipeg Jets 1%
Columbus Blue Jackets 1%
Seattle Kraken 1%
Nashville Predators 1%
St. Louis Blues 1%
New York Islanders 1%
Washington Capitals 1%
Philadelphia Flyers 1%
Los Angeles Kings 1%
Detroit Red Wings 1%
Calgary Flames 1%
Volume
$18.1M
Open Int.
$630.9K
Ends
Jun 29
25
What price will Ethereum hit in March?
Polymarket ₿ Crypto
No Outcome
$18.0M
—
Mar 31
Closed
25

What price will Ethereum hit in March?

Polymarket
₿ Crypto Closed
Outcome No
Volume $18.0M
26
Brazil Presidential Election
Polymarket 🏛️ Politics
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%
$17.2M
$1.6M
Oct 3
Active
26

Brazil Presidential Election

Polymarket
🏛️ Politics Active
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva 43%
Flávio Bolsonaro 38%
Renan Santos 7%
Fernando Haddad 5%
Ronaldo Caiado 3%
Tarcisio de Freitas 1%
Jair Bolsonaro 1%
Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior 1%
Michelle Bolsonaro 1%
Eduardo Bolsonaro 1%
Eduardo Leite 1%
Romeu Zema 1%
Camilo Santana 1%
Geraldo Alckmin 1%
Volume
$17.2M
Open Int.
$1.6M
Ends
Oct 3
27
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?
Polymarket 🎭 Culture
No 96%
$15.9M
$2.4M
Dec 30
Active
27

Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?

Polymarket
🎭 Culture Active
Yes 4%
No 96%
Volume
$15.9M
Open Int.
$2.4M
Ends
Dec 30
28
Largest Company end of March?
Polymarket 💰 Finance
NVIDIA Outcome
$13.8M
—
Mar 30
Closed
28

Largest Company end of March?

Polymarket
💰 Finance Closed
Outcome NVIDIA
Volume $13.8M
29
Which company has the best AI model end of March?
Polymarket 🔬 Tech
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026 Outcome
$12.9M
—
Mar 30
Closed
29

Which company has the best AI model end of March?

Polymarket
🔬 Tech Closed
Outcome Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026
Volume $12.9M
30
Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats
Polymarket 🏀 Sports
Arizona Wildcats Outcome
$12.1M
—
Mar 28
Closed
30

Purdue Boilermakers vs. Arizona Wildcats

Polymarket
🏀 Sports Closed
Outcome Arizona Wildcats
Volume $12.1M

Category Breakdown

Compare volume and activity across platforms by category

K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics8,791$1.6M-25.5%
Sports345,612$184.5M-11.3%
Crypto5,215$18.0M-42.2%
Economics3,718$1.9M-22.7%
Finance998$54.6K-14.2%
Tech519$109.2K-18.3%
Culture4,281$467.3K-33.4%
Weather3,595$943.6K-14.9%
Misc165$27.6K-45.3%
World17,206$2.5M+0.3%
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics4,782$50.2M+3.2%
Sports20,731$135.8M+0.7%
Crypto6,129$36.4M-44.1%
Economics663$3.7M-0.2%
Finance894$1.0M+5.4%
Tech493$290.7K-22.9%
Culture863$3.8M+16%
Weather123$48.0K-8.7%
Misc24,674$43.5M-26.2%
Mentions12$13.1K+1.3%
K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics16,483$24.4M-12.6%
Sports773,102$1.1B-7%
Crypto27,221$190.5M-11.8%
Economics2,733$18.5M+20.4%
Finance2,839$3.0M-13.6%
Tech500$829.0K+31.5%
Culture3,204$3.3M+12.8%
Weather7,886$6.7M-14.5%
Misc575$651.1K+42.4%
World43,717$13.4M-5.6%
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics4,310$393.8M-15.4%
Sports16,952$752.2M-19.1%
Crypto20,043$557.3M-38.9%
Economics743$28.8M-30.1%
Finance1,265$27.5M-61.4%
Tech548$11.5M-75.3%
Culture834$29.2M-25.6%
Weather147$791.5K-96.8%
Misc28,303$371.9M+60.1%
Mentions18$618.9K+157.7%
K

Kalshi Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics62,624$92.9M-41%
Sports2,682,252$5.3B-4.6%
Crypto77,490$797.7M+15.3%
Economics5,819$58.7M+28%
Finance7,058$10.9M+17.7%
Tech2,711$3.4M-57.8%
Culture25,403$18.1M-64.7%
Weather20,003$28.8M-16.5%
Misc13,916$6.6M-46.2%
World161,554$48.5M+63%
P

Polymarket Categories

CategoryMarketsVolumeChange
Politics6,629$1.8B-1.2%
Sports73,141$4.4B+45.8%
Crypto48,558$2.4B+112.9%
Economics1,202$447.4M+64.6%
Finance3,079$220.8M+49.9%
Tech1,378$237.2M-28.5%
Culture1,863$165.4M+29.9%
Weather4,829$116.6M+71.5%
Misc94,997$2.1B+86.2%
Mentions129$3.2M+8.2%
Last updated: April 4, 2026 at 11:53 PM PDT

Data sourced from Kalshi, Polymarket, and Polymarket US APIs

Latest news making headlines

  • April 3: Kentucky became the first state to explicitly tax prediction market platforms, imposing a 14.25% levy on transaction fees and signaling a shift toward revenue capture over outright bans as states test the limits of their authority.
  • April 2: The CFTC filed lawsuits against Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut, asserting exclusive federal authority over prediction markets and directly challenging state attempts to regulate or restrict the platforms.
  • April 2: Robinhood sued Washington officials seeking to block state enforcement actions against its prediction market offerings, pushing the legal fight into the Ninth Circuit and escalating the federal-state jurisdiction battle.
  • April 1: Paradigm is building a professional trading terminal for prediction markets, signaling a shift toward institutional-grade infrastructure as Wall Street firms and market makers enter the space.
  • March 31: Texas elevated prediction markets as a priority for its 2027 legislative session, though court rulings may clarify how much authority states ultimately have over the industry before the state’s lawmakers can act.
  • March 30: Kalshi launched a Washington, D.C. ad campaign pushing back on Congressional criticism, emphasizing that its federally regulated exchange already bans insider trading and targeting misconceptions shaping policy debates.
  • March 30: The NFL urged platforms including Kalshi and Polymarket to avoid listing manipulation-prone contracts, such as those tied to injuries, officiating, or pre-determined outcomes, as the CFTC accepts public input on market rules.
  • March 30: Washington filed a lawsuit seeking to declare Kalshi illegal under state law, block resident access, and recover alleged losses, marking another escalation in the growing state-level crackdown on prediction markets.
  • March 27: Kalshi secured margin trading approval through its FCM affiliate and announced an ARK Invest research partnership, completing key infrastructure needed to support institutional-scale, leveraged prediction market trading.
  • March 27: PredictIt rolled out a full platform redesign after surviving a CFTC shutdown attempt, signaling a reset for the legacy prediction market as it repositions within a rapidly evolving regulatory and competitive landscape.
  • March 26: Rep. Seth Moulton barred staff from using prediction markets as Congress introduced additional legislation targeting insider trading risks, adding to a growing list of federal bills focused on the sector.
  • March 26: Coinbase pushed back against a proposed CLARITY Act ban on stablecoin yield, with industry experts warning the restriction could reshape crypto incentives and competitive dynamics with traditional finance.
  • March 24: A DeFi Rate analysis found wide pricing disparities on March Madness games across prediction market platforms, with house take ranging from 1.3% to 8.2%, meaning platform selection alone can materially impact bettor outcomes.
  • March 23: Founders of Polymarket and Kalshi backed a new $35M venture fund dedicated to prediction markets, marking one of the first capital pools focused exclusively on scaling the industry’s infrastructure and startups.
  • March 23: A bipartisan Senate bill aims to restrict sports prediction markets, marking one of the most direct federal efforts yet to limit event-contract trading tied to athletic competitions.
  • March 21: Kalshi was forced to exit Nevada after a court-ordered shutdown, but an April 3 hearing could determine whether the platform can regain access as the broader state vs. federal jurisdiction fight intensifies.
  • March 20: Kalshi’s valuation surged from $2B to $22B in nine months after another $1B raise, fueled by record trading volumes, institutional capital, and accelerating demand for sports-driven prediction markets.
  • March 20: The stablecoin yield debate has become a central fault line in U.S. crypto policy, with banks and crypto firms clashing over whether yield-bearing stablecoins should be treated like deposits as lawmakers near a CLARITY Act breakthrough.
  • March 18: The CFTC’s no-action letter to Phantom allows the crypto wallet to connect users to regulated derivatives and prediction markets without registering as a broker, potentially opening a new distribution layer for event-contract trading.
  • March 17: Milbank attorneys unpacked the CFTC’s latest prediction market guidance, signaling the agency views sports event contracts as swaps under its jurisdiction while launching a formal rulemaking process that could define how the industry is regulated going forward.
  • March 17: Arizona filed 20 criminal charges against Kalshi, marking the most aggressive state action yet and escalating the legal fight beyond civil disputes by alleging illegal gambling and election betting violations.

What are prediction markets? 

Prediction markets are a venue for trading contracts tied to the outcome of a future event. Sites such as Kalshi and Polymarket allow participants to buy and sell shares in contracts tied to various markets, including politics, economics, pop culture events, and weather forecasts. 

Contracts are the financial instruments used to facilitate trade in prediction markets. At most sites, traders can buy “Yes” or “No” shares on the outcome, with prices ranging from 1 cent to $1. The price serves as an indicator of the perceived likelihood of an event happening. As an example, consider the following market for an economic indicator: 

Example of how a prediction market works

Using the contracts’ pricing as a guide, traders view it as less likely that the funds rate will not decrease when this contract closes. If their speculation proves to be correct, they would earn $1 per contract. Meanwhile, those who hold “Yes” shares would see the value of their holdings go to zero. 

As prediction markets remain open, the price of contracts will fluctuate as traders buy and sell shares in response to new developments. Naturally, there are no guarantees that the market pricing will translate into exactly what will happen.

However, it is a “wisdom of the crowds” indicator that points to an outcome’s overall probability and likelihood.         

How prediction markets work

Prediction market apps function similarly to other financial markets. Traders buy and sell contracts on the outcome of a future event. For comparison, stock market traders buy and sell shares of companies, while popular markets on a commodities exchange include the price of oil or gold. 

In all of the above, traders are speculating on a result in hopes of being correct and ultimately earning a profit. For prediction markets, there are three main components to know:

  • Contracts: These are the financial instruments that are traded and tied to the outcome of future events.  
  • Participants: Those who are trading in the markets and providing liquidity as they buy and sell based on their predictions. 
  • Mechanisms: The platforms that make the markets available, calculate prices, and facilitate transactions. 

Most prediction platforms feature binary options markets, which translates into participants choosing “Yes” or “No” on the available contracts that they are interested in speculating on. The apps make money by charging a fee that varies based on the price of the market. Using the Crypto.com app and a $100 trade as an example, the fee is capped at a maximum of $1.74.       

As you view the available contracts on prediction market platforms, you’ll notice that the total value of “Yes” and “No” options does not equal exactly $1. For example: 

  • Winner of the March Madness tournament semifinal
  • Duke: $0.72
  • Houston: $0.29

The total of the two prices works out to $1.01. This is due to the spread, which is the difference in demand. There is high demand for a market such as this one with a tight spread. If the spread is more prominent, such as $0.05, there’s lower demand and likely less volume and liquidity in the market for that contract. 

Kalshi and Polymarket provide diverse market options for traders to choose from, such as: 

The pricing of contracts can be viewed as the market’s collective “best guess” on the likelihood of an event outcome.

Most popular markets

You can trade on a wide range of real-world events on prediction market platforms. Contracts are available on outcomes in a variety of markets, including: 

Explore all categories

Sports

Game results, championships, build combo trades

Crypto

Cryptocurrency prices, market events

Culture

Award shows, celebrity news, viral trends

Mentions

Predictions on words and phrases used by public figures

Politics

Election results, geopolitics, politicians

In terms of overall coverage, Kalshi and Polymarket provide the broadest range of options. Crypto.com is currently limited to sports, PredictIt focuses on politics, while other niche platforms have yet to capture a good deal of mainstream attention. Some platforms allow users to propose new markets, while others curate their offerings centrally. 

In terms of overall usage, Polymarket leads in global web traffic, while Kalshi is tops among US-regulated options. Beyond the trading aspect, prediction markets are often cited for their forecast accuracy. The platforms essentially aggregate the opinions of traders, offering a “wisdom of the crowds’ look at the probability of an event or outcome happening. 

How does pricing work on contracts?

Prediction market contracts are binary options that pay out a fixed amount. It’s typically set at $1 if the event occurs, and $0 if it does not. Before the contract settles, prices will fluctuate between those ranges as traders enter and exit positions. 

When viewing a contract offering on a prediction market platform, the pricing reflects the market’s collective estimate of the probability that the event will happen. Consider the following example:

  • Contract: “Will the Fed raise interest rates in May?” 
  • Pricing: $0.70 for “Yes” and $0.32 for “No.”
  • Implication: The market implies a 70% chance of a rate hike and a 32% chance it won’t happen.

As you’ll notice, the pricing doesn’t exactly equal $1, while the implied probability is greater than 100%. Small differences such as these are common and often reflect the spread between bid and ask pricing or trading fees. Markets with higher liquidity tend to have more stable prices and tighter spreads, while wider price swings can happen in less active contracts. 

While contracts remain open, prices will continue to move as traders react to new information and shifting sentiment, providing a real-time snapshot of the overall market sentiment. At settlement, the resolution for a correct contract call is $1, while the other side will drop to $0.

Kalshi vs. Polymarket fee comparison

The trading fees and costs on prediction markets can impact your overall returns. The table below has a breakdown of the main fees you’ll encounter on Kalshi and Polymarket. 

Fee TypeKalshiPolymarket
Trading Fee$0.07–$1.74 per 100 contracts (varies by contract price; see example)No trading fee
Profit/SettlementNoneNone
Deposit FeeACH free; Debit card 2%None (USDC only)
Withdrawal FeeACH free; Debit card $21.5% on USDC withdrawals

Kalshi’s trading fee is variable and depends on the contract price. For 100 contracts, it can be as low as $0.07 and up to $1.74. There are no settlement fees to worry about. Meanwhile, Polymarket does not charge any trading or settlement fees. 

To illustrate the difference, assume that you’re buying 100 contracts at $0.55 on either platform. At Kalshi, this price point triggers the maximum fee for 100 contracts of $1.74, while Polymarket charges $0. You’d be in for a total of $56.74 at the former, and $55 at the latter.  

If you make the right call, the contract settles at $1 in both spots. At Kalshi, you’ll get back $100, less your fee of $1.74, for a total of $98.26. Polymarket will return an even $100 since there are no fees attached. 

Beyond trading and settlement, be sure to consider the deposit and withdrawal fees that are outlined above. Traders should also be aware of potential “hidden costs” like bid-ask spreads, and the potential challenges of exiting positions in less liquid markets.

Profit potential for betting on predictions

Prediction markets offer opportunities for traders to profit by buying and selling contracts. In its simplest form, the goal is to make the correct calls so your contracts settle at full value. Traders can also aim to “buy low and sell high.”

Strategies for doing just that include looking for mispriced outcomes and acting before the rest of the market catches on. While the potential for returns is real, profits aren’t guaranteed. Market efficiency, liquidity, and timing all play a big role in shaping your results. 

How much can you make by buying a low-priced contract?

Buying low-priced contracts can be enticing due to the potential for big returns. Naturally, there’s plenty of risk here. The contract is priced low for a reason, namely that the chances of that outcome happening aren’t great. 

Let’s consider the following fictitious example for an NBA Playoff game in which there’s a clear favorite to win, at least as far as the market is concerned. 

  • Underdog contract price: $0.10 (10% chance)
  • Quantity: You buy 100 contracts for a total of $10. 
  • Kalshi trading fee: $0.63 (for 100 contracts at this price point)
  • Total upfront cost: $10 + $0.63 = $10.63
  • Outcome: Underdog wins; contracts settle at $1 each
  • Payout: 100 × $1 = $100
  • Net profit: $100 – $10.63 = $89.37

In this case, a small investment yields a large return if the prediction is correct. Seeking out low-priced contracts with realistic profit potential can be part of a well-rounded trading approach, but remember to account for the increased risks of trading less-likely outcomes.  

What happens if you sell your contract before the event?

Prediction markets aren’t just about holding contracts to settlement. You can also sell your position before the event concludes if the odds move in your favor. This is especially common in political markets, where news cycles and polling shifts can cause prices to swing rapidly.

Consider the following as an example: “Will Candidate X win the election?”

  • Polymarket contract price: $0.45 (45% chance)..
  • Quantity: You buy 50 contracts for a total of $22.50.
  • New developments and polling substantially boosts Candidate X’s chances. 
  • The contract price rises to $0.70.
  • You decide to sell all 50 contracts at $0.70 each for a total of $35
  • Polymarket trading fee: $0 (no trading fee; only a withdrawal fee applies if you cash out)
  • Net profit: $35 – $22.50 = $12.50
  • If you withdraw your USDC, a 1.5% withdrawal fee applies: $35 × 0.015 = $0.53

By selling before the event, you lock in your gains and avoid the uncertainty of the final outcome. This approach can be especially useful when you think the market has overreacted or you want to cash out and take your profit after a favorable news development. 

Can you profit by betting ‘No’ on an event?

Prediction markets also allow you to profit by betting against an outcome happening. This is where you would buy the “No” side of the equation when you anticipate that the contract will ultimately resolve to that end result. 

Consider the following example: “Will U.S. inflation exceed 4% this quarter?”

  • Kalshi “No” contract price: $0.60 (60% chance).
  • Quantity: You buy 75 contracts for a total of $45. 
  • Kalshi trading fee: $1.50 (at $0.02 per contract for this price point)
  • Total upfront cost: $45 + $1.50 = $46.50
  • If inflation comes in below 4%, each contract settles at $1
  • Payout: 75 × $1 = $75
  • Net profit: $75 – $46.50 = $28.50

Taking the “No” side can be a valuable strategy when you believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of an event. Regardless of which outcome you choose, stick to your comfort level for both contract pricing and the total amount of your trades.   

Are prediction markets the same as gambling? 

Prediction markets are not, by definition, the same as gambling. The former is considered a tool for forecasting outcomes based on probabilities. Casino, sports, and lottery are generally viewed as games of chance. That said, there are similarities between the two, most notably that the goal is to turn a profit.   

From the perspective of a prediction platform, the contracts are on equal footing to a commodities exchange. Using the Chicago Mercantile Exchange as an example, futures and options are traded on stock indexes, precious metals, energy commodities, and more. Traders take positions on the various instruments based on their expectations of what will happen.  

In a prediction market, traders are doing the same thing, albeit in a broader variety of options, such as political, cultural, and economic events. The gambling label has been attached to these platforms as they have risen in popularity, even more so since the introduction of contracts on various sporting events, such as the winner of March Madness or the next Super Bowl winner.  

Prediction market platforms like Kalshi, PredictIt, and ForecastEx are currently available across the US. However, questions on their overall legality continue to linger. A case between Kalshi and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission remains unresolved. Kalshi won the latest round, but litigation is ongoing. 

The platform offered contracts for the 2024 US elections, and has since expanded into sports futures. Meanwhile, states like Illinois, Nevada, New Jersey, and Ohio have presented the company with cease-and-desist letters, essentially arguing that they’re offering unregulated sports betting.     

If interest in prediction markets is a guide, then the future looks incredibly bright. Kalshi and Polymarket have attracted extensive volume for tentpole events that it has offered contracts for, including the 2024 US elections, the Super Bowl, and March Madness.

Understanding the math of prediction market contracts

Prediction market contract pricing is generally straightforward. You can view an available market and quickly determine the implied probability of an event happening, at least as far as the overall market sentiment is concerned. 

That said, the actual trading of contracts takes a little more doing on the calculation front. You can use the below formulas and examples as a cheat sheet to help gain even more of a comfort level with prediction market trading. 

How to calculate the number of contracts you can buy

Formula: Number of Contracts = (Available Capital) ÷ (Contract Price + Fees)

Example:

  • You want to trade $50. 
  • Each contract you’re interested in costs $0.25.
  • Kalshi fee: $0.02 per contract at this price point.
  • Calculation: $50 ÷ ($0.25 + $0.02) ≈ 192 contracts

Estimating potential profit and loss

Formula: Profit = (Sell Price – Buy Price) × Number of Contracts – Fees

Example:

  • You buy 100 contracts at $0.30 and sell at $0.60.
  • Profit = ($0.60 – $0.30) × 100 = $30
  • Kalshi fee: $1.68 (for 100 contracts at $0.60)
  • Net profit = $30 – $1.68 = $28.32

Finding your break-even price

Formula: Break-even Price = (Buy Price + Total Fees) ÷ Number of Contracts

Example:

  • You buy 50 contracts at $0.40, for a total of $20. 
  • Total fees if you sold at the same price: $1 ($0.02 per contract). 
  • Break-even = ($20 + $1) ÷ 50 = $0.42 per contract
  • You need to sell above $0.42 to make a profit.

By taking the time to understand these quick calculations, you could spot appealing opportunities that much quicker. As an added benefit, you’ll be better equipped to manage risk and make more informed trades. 

Risks to consider when trading in prediction markets

Trading in prediction markets can be entertaining and potentially profitable, but it’s not devoid of risk. Understanding the potential pitfalls can help you mitigate unnecessary mistakes and ultimately make more informed decisions. Key risks to consider include: 

  • Unexpected outcomes: There’s always the potential for a complete loss of your stake, even when the odds seem overwhelmingly in your favor.
  • Low liquidity: Certain markets attract a limited amount of volume, which can make it difficult to buy or sell contracts at fair prices.
  • Platform issues: While top platforms tend to operate without lengthy interruptions, there are simply no guarantees when it comes to security or technical glitches. 
  • Regulatory environment: Prediction markets are soaring in popularity and readily accessible, but are also subject to developments from ongoing legal challenges. 
  • Distorted prices: Biases, groupthink, manipulation, and misinformation could all impact contract pricing in both high- and low-volume markets.   

If you trade in prediction markets, there is risk. However, you can take steps to help manage it better. At the top of the list, you should only trade with money that you can afford to lose. Nothing is guaranteed with trading, no matter what the odds may suggest. 

Next, stay informed about what’s happening. Knowing what’s going on with the regulatory front can help you make better decisions on where to park your funds. Lastly, stick to what you know and don’t blindly chase volume. After all, the herd isn’t always correct.