Amberdata

In 2025, stablecoin supply reached $269B, with $77B added over the year. The majority of this capital was concentrated in USDT (69%) and USDC (24%), representing a significant pool of undeployed liquidity. Historically, this type of expansion reflects positioning ahead of market moves rather than a reaction to them. 

Bitcoin’s on-chain positioning has undergone a significant reset. Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has declined from approximately 0.55, a level associated with optimism, to near 0.02, approaching capitulation territory. This shift reflects more than just price movement. It represents a broad transition in market psychology, from profit-taking and confidence toward fear, realized losses, and positioning reset. Historically, these transitions mark key inflection points in market structure. Not because sentiment alone drives price, but because it reflects how much excess positioning has been cleared from the system. The current setup suggests a market that is no longer overheated, but still in the process of rebuilding conviction.

ETF flow data shows a consistent pattern: institutions allocate into strength, not ahead of it. Peak inflows occurred during periods of price expansion, reinforcing trends rather than predicting reversals. This has important implications for how flows should be interpreted. They are better viewed as confirmation of positioning, not a leading indicator. 

October’s ETF outflows were widely interpreted as institutional capitulation. In reality, they were driven by basis compression forcing arbitrage unwinds, not a change in long-term positioning. Understanding the mechanism matters. It changes how you interpret flows entirely.

TF accumulation in 2025 reached 257,285 BTC, or roughly 7% of circulating supply. This represents a structural shift in Bitcoin’s market. The marginal price setter is no longer the same. 

Implied volatility is compressing across both BTC and ETH 7-day ATM IV • BTC: ~52, down from ~69 earlier this month • ETH: following a similar compression pattern Periods like this tend to be unstable equilibria Historically, sustained low IV regimes resolve with sharp directional expansion The market is calm on the surface But structurally, pressure is building

The ETF flow story has effectively consolidated into one signal: IBIT. BlackRock captured ~$24B in inflows, representing ~82% of net new ETF capital. At this point, tracking IBIT flows provides a clear lens into institutional positioning. As market structure evolves, flows are becoming more informative than narratives.

The ETF narrative in 2025 was widely misread. October’s “outflows” were not institutions exiting. They were basis trades unwinding as carry collapsed from 15% to under 5%. Meanwhile: • Stablecoin supply expanded by $77B • BlackRock and Fidelity captured the majority of flows • Institutional demand remained structurally intact Section 8 follows the flows and shows where capital is actually positioned heading into 2026. https://hubs.la/Q048VX450

Blockworks DAS NYC 2026 🤝 We spent the week speaking with institutional teams across the ecosystem, discussing market structure, positioning, and where capital is moving. One of the biggest themes across those conversations was stablecoins and their growing role in financial infrastructure. The shift is real.

Most options traders focus on direction. Few understand how volatility exposure changes once a trade moves in the money. On the latest tastylive episode, Greg Magadini, CFA, breaks down a structure designed to adapt as volatility shifts, not fight it. The key level remains 75K. A break higher could open the path toward the mid 80s.