How to approach a gardening-type project

The process of identifying where you are in relation to your goals (something we might call point A) and mastering new material to maneuver yourself to where you want to be (something we might call Point B) is essentially what successful adults almost exclusively spend their time doing.  I challenge you to name one hero or role model who did not go through this process.  What Point B becomes does change as you move through your life and become more successful, but why not start now and get good at the process while you’re still young?

W. Walter Tinsley, Bring Home the Score

Previously, how to approach a hunting-type project.

More previously,

Gardening-type projects are going to apply to most of your relationships, networking, and sales where you’re motivated to get something from other people: you’re paying a lot of attention to the qualitative state of someone/something else, trying to cultivate it responsively but also efficiently, and depending a lot on your memory of what it liked and didn’t like in the past. Some of your efforts bloom, and some don’t, and it never really ends. Much of it depends on which people happen by chance to be drawn to your personality type, just like how the local climate and conditions affect what grows and how easily. There’s no definition of “done,” just easily judged states of better and worse. Some non-obvious examples of gardening-type projects are social media marketing, dating from the male perspective, intelligence work, and searching for a job. The time horizon is actually pretty short, because you’re trying to maintain daily short contacts with each plant to water it, monitor it, and respond quickly (reasonably quickly) to small opportunities and crises. You want to reflect on the progress of each little project every week or two, so it pays to have snapshots that make the differences more concrete and obvious in retrospect. (Do gardeners take pictures of their plants over time? I would, especially if it were automated.) That means maintaining a CRM is crucial. In this type of project, it’s hard to set traditional goals because it doesn’t just depend on you and you’re never really done spinning plates, you just take long breaks sometimes and let the garden fall apart for a while.

https://aeolipera.wordpress.com/2024/01/03/types-of-project/

Gardening-type projects are probably the most important for material success in modern life, because personal finance and wealth-building is a lot like gardening. This has become more salient to me in recent years, as I’ve been striving to become good at money despite my natural anti-materialistic streak. I’ve also had a recent epiphany about how to do stuff like this.

But first, let’s talk about video games!

Subset Games has a couple of very different games called Into the Breach and Faster Than Light. The former plays like chess, and I loved it. It’s pretty close to deterministic (if you pick the right moves, you’ll win) and rewards the tendency to slow down and overanalyze your next move for very simple outcomes. It’s very appealing to the sort of mind that enjoys a rigorous syllogism, and I beat the campaign on hard on my second try. If you can restate modus tollens in your own words off the top of your head*, you’d probably love it. My friend Zeke bounced off it, but he loves Faster Than Light. This is more of a resources management game, where you balance concerns, grow your crew and ship’s capabilities in parallel, acquire money, spend money, spread your attention broadly and shallowly across everything at once, and make tons of little decisions as you prepare for some final challenge (on a time limit). Early successes can compound into big successes and big mistakes often spiral into catastrophe, just like in the game of life (or XCOM, which I think is more popular in this genre). If you have an overabundance of executive function, you’d probably love it. I have a deficit of executive function as part of my inattentive ADHD, so this game is stressful for me.

Skipping to the end, most of adult life is like the one I’m bad at, and not coincidentally I’m quite poor relative to my IQ. Also not coincidentally, Zeke is happily married with five kids and has amassed a moderate net worth, despite getting his bachelor’s degree in a major less marketable than creative writing. Being naturally like me is only useful for specializing in something technical where the job market doesn’t crash the month before you graduate (but c’est la vie). Zeke is also quite the gardener, again not coincidentally.

Enough preamble, how does he do it? It’s simple! The success of all gardening-type projects can be broken down into values, targets for optimization, strategy, rules of thumb, daily metrics, and knowledge. Let’s tackle these in reverse order.

Knowledge is the context you need to make good decisions at every level. It’s the variable that will make or break you, and should be your #1 focus and priority for succeeding at gardening-type projects. Because gardening-type projects necessarily involve a lot of waiting around, you should spend about 80% of your time learning what to do and why–as a rule of thumb–and only about 20% of your time actually doing anything. If you’re the phlegmatic type, or just inclined to armchair philosophy, this should come as great news! There is no knowledge that isn’t valuable for gardening-type projects, but some knowledge is much more valuable. What you don’t know will always hurt you, and if it’s fundamental ignorance it will probably kill you. Refer to my post on foundational books for a highly useful taxonomy of knowledge. For most gardening-type projects in life, you’ll never run out of useful stuff to learn, so front-load your studying with foundational books, but don’t make the mistake of never starting (active learning is the best kind), and only stop studying if you’re tired of the compound growth that is its result.

Daily metrics are the choice of where you spend your time, money, and effort. They represent the independent, causal variable that breeds success. In gardening, it’s the watering, weeding, and other tasks that constitute the necessary work. In sales, it may be the number of contacts you have with leads and customers, or maybe the number of minutes you spend talking to them. In competitive running, it’s the duration of time per week you spend running and the quality and quantity of your recovery time. In a more complex endeavor, like your health broadly speaking, you may have to balance work time, which you use to pay for everything else, family time, exercise time, cooking time, organizing time (so you don’t miss doctor appointments), and so on. It’s harder to pick targets for optimization, but there are guidelines like “work out 4x/week for 30 minutes or more” that will get you 80% of the way there (a respectable passing grade!). These aren’t the things you want, per se, but they’re the daily and weekly minutiae that get you what you want in time.

Rules of thumb are, in my opinion, the most important kind of worldly wisdom there is. These are quantitative guidelines that take the load off your executive function by eliminating the bulk of your decisions, which become obvious, and providing perspective for the ones that need more scrutiny. For example, as a rule of thumb your rent or mortgage payment shouldn’t exceed 30% of your income. If you’re buying a house to flip, the purchase price should not exceed 70% of the property’s After Repair Value minus the estimated repair costs. As a rule of thumb, your meals should be 1/3 protein, 1/3 carb, and 1/3 vegetable. As a rule of thumb, you should run in Zone 2 or less 80% of the time. As a rule of thumb, you should do heavy compound barbell lifts in sets of 5 (or “fahve”). Usually you can find these rules of thumb in the foundational books, during your initial immersion phase, but nowadays all the advice on the internet is 90% disclaimers and 10% useless sentimentalism (“have fun!”), so they’re getting harder to find. You may have to invent your own as you go.

Strategy refers to the fact that people and starting contexts are different enough that you may have to modify the normal advice to fit your situation. Think of it as different ways of getting victory points: everybody wants the same points, but if military conquest is overvalued by the other players you might want to go for a science victory. Please don’t mistake this for the common (and retarded) sentiment that “there are as many ways to squat as there are people who squat.” There are only a couple really good ways to do anything, there’s definitely a best one for your situation, and you’re gonna get hurt if you aren’t at least in the same ballpark as the right strategy. And if you’re wondering whether you’re special, you’re not. A guy in a wheelchair knows whether he’s in a wheelchair. So do the normal strategy or get an expert to design your special strategy.

Targets for optimization are the variables you track that will tell you whether you’re succeeding in the long term. It’s the scoreboard you choose for your big annual goals. In sales, it’s your sales numbers. In fitness, it’s your performance numbers. In chess, it’s your Elo rating. In gardening, it’s the weight of your harvest. This is probably the easiest one to understand, but also has the most common pitfalls. The one to watch for the most is premature specificity. This is a fancy way of saying you don’t start your education by studying for the SATs, you build up a foundation of skills and knowledge and then do your test prep. Please notice I’m not completely opposed to teaching to the test…quite the contrary. (See the devil’s advocate argument in favor of standardized testing in “Bring Home the Score” by W. Walter Tinsley.) But getting specific too early is how you “get out over your skis.” When your training for a triathlon, you don’t practice by running triathlons at race pace, you spend a few months building up your aerobic base and then linearly ramp up specificity over a few months in the “build” phase.

The other danger is paperclips maximizing, which is prevented by keeping in mind the difference between your quantitative targets and qualitative values.

Values are the ethereal, unapproachable, unmeasurable things we’re trying to get at by gardening (or whatever) but can never quite reach. In psychometrics, it’s the elusive idea of g that we imperfectly approach by measuring IQ. For example, we aren’t actually gardening because we want to convert the earth’s mass into produce, it’s a murky mix of the desires to eat good produce, give some produce away, save some money, connect with the earth, scratch the itch to nurture something, feel a sense of accomplishment, learn about nature, and lots of other things that defy comprehensive definition. Keeping Goodhart’s Law in mind, that the targets we optimize for will cease to be good proxies for our values as we get better at optimizing, will prevent the paperclip maximizing problem. Values are by necessity subconscious and nonverbal (ref. Rory Miller), you will have to use visualization techniques to build your intuition for them. You will then have to use your judgment to decide whether your values and targets have become decoupled to the point that you have to pick new targets. No one can do this for you, and if you try to lawyer your way out of it you’ll only be hurting yourself and the people for whom you’re responsible.

Now that you have all the mental tools you need, let’s bring it all together.

We’ve all seen the video of the superspy dusting off some bullet wounds to take down the bad guy after he remembers some emotional moment, or the soldier who defeats impossible odds after watching his comrade die in battle.  Unfortunately, this is mostly the stuff of movieland.  Unless you’re a fictional character, the truth about emotions and motivation is that they really don’t get you very far on their own.  Granted, heightened emotion and soaring motivation are great tools for clarifying what you want and what you need to do, but in real life there is almost no situation where someone achieves something difficult by being particularly emotional or motivated.  In fact, quite the opposite is true, as almost all great achievements are composed of countless small decisions made toward that goal.

-W. Walter Tinsley again

The way to win at gardening-type projects is going to vary by discipline, but they’ll always require you to connect all these concepts together like an assembly line. Ideally, your knowledge will inform your daily decisions, which will allow you to hit your daily metrics, which your rules of thumb predict will optimize your targets, that will then satisfy the subconscious values that motivated you to garden in the first place. But you have to do this in the opposite order, starting with why like that Simon Sinek guy said: meditate on your values, pick a target that’ll move you toward them, strategize how you’ll get there, develop guiding rules of thumb for what daily metrics to hit and why, and make good daily decisions based on your knowledge. And because gardening-type projects are 80% knowledge based, your typical decision should be to spend time learning how to do it properly, with only 20% of your time spent actually doing it.

If you want to get really good at this, go through Brian Tracy’s Maximum Achievement training kit.


*Absence of the symptom implies absence of the condition.

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Ideal energy fluctuations

One of the things you learn from physical training* is that, ideally, your energy expenditure should either be high or low. This is measured by my Garmin as “stress.” It’s not good to cruise through your day at a moderate pace, what could be described as grinding, chronic stress. Rather, you want to have a couple peaks of high effort, followed by rest, punctuated by a baseline of easy effort (analogous to Z1 “recovery” or Z2 “aerobic base” levels of stress). The combination of hard efforts, easy efforts, and recovery has the effect of producing supercompensation, which over time raises the effectiveness of your efforts across all effort levels and makes you recover faster. This is also true on the macro scale. Ideally, your life should have seasons in it: seasons of working harder, seasons of working slower, seasons more focused on learning, and seasons more focused on doing.

Here are some observations about typical energy reactions to different things we do daily:

  • We’re better primed for passive learning right after waking up.
  • After passively learning for a while, we’re primed for creative work. This could be because it was boring and this made your body and mind antsy to do something meaningful, or it could be because it was inspiring and you want to apply the knowledge or build on it.
  • The best way to prime your body and mind for shallow or active work is to exercise.
  • You should eat right after working out.
  • Ideally, you’d want to nap after every time you work out. This is great for your recovery (i.e. gainz) and lowers your stress and heart rate closer to your baseline so you aren’t burning the candle as quickly the rest of the day.
  • However, you’re probably too wired to nap right after working out, so you’d want to give it an hour or so to let your digestion put you to sleep.

These observations suggest the following ideal order: Sleep > Learn > Deep work > Exercise > Eat > Shallow work > Sleep (and repeat). Extended further, the ideal daily routine would be…

Early morning: Wake > Read Bible > Pray > Exercise > Breakfast > Shallow work > Mid-morning nap (probably not practical, so you may have to settle for putting your feet up while doing something that doesn’t require much of you).

Late morning: Wake > Passive practical learning > Deep work or active learning > Exercise > Lunch > Shallow work > Early afternoon nap.

Afternoon and evening: Wake > Read something useful but not too technical (your energy level is lower this late in the day) > Knock out a couple semi-deep tasks > Do something physical > Dinner > Chores > Start chilling out for the big overnight nap > Sleep.

Two naps per day is asking a lot, but if I were a professional athlete that’s what I’d be shooting for. Similarly, three hard study sessions in a day is a lot to ask unless you’re a full-time college student (but maybe you are). Three cycles of this idealized energy flow is practically impossible unless your life situation is already completely ideal, but I think if you try out just one good pass through the basic pattern you’ll be pleased with the results. It’s pretty powerful.

You might also try it in a miniaturized form. I can imagine this working for people with ADHD. For example:

Read a blog post > Do a 15-minute pomodoro > Set of pushups > Snack > Knock out one quick task > Rest your eyes for 10 minutes > Repeat


*You can also learn this from Cal Newport’s work in Straight-A Student or Deep Work, from trading stocks, or from working in any domain at a high level. I just like using exercise as the example because it’s concrete and it’s where I’ve learned everything I know about personal development.

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Splitting time with employers for continuing education

This is a suggestion for an ideal social norm we could approach someday, not something I would suggest actually trying to negotiate explicitly in real life in the current year with your real employer. They probably aren’t ready.

As a society, we haven’t yet come to terms with the idea that some of the more complex service jobs should be billing more for their knowledge than for their time. Ideally, I should be working very little as an IT support technician, because when I know what I’m doing I can fix things very quickly. Often the time I spend on a problem can be measured in seconds. Even more ideally, I spend a small amount of time on prevention and I’d be working even less in the future. How does this wonderful ideal happen? Through continuing education, the practice of which is outside the scope of this post. For our purposes, we need only accept Brian Tracy’s suggestion that 10 hours of continuing education per week is a good number.

We pay lip service to the idea of working smarter and not harder, but the only person on earth who actually follows it is Patrick McKenzie. But the answer is not for everyone with a high school education or better to become petty bourgeoisie. Or at least, we haven’t observed the libertarian flotilla nation idea working in practice yet. (If your plan is to take a bunch of people who can’t get along with other people in any country on earth, put them together on a flotilla, and expect them to get along, that’s a bad plan.) We have to live in a world where 99% of people still have personalities genetically adapted for a pre-industrial agrarian society. Actually the situation is much worse than that, but let’s restrict our analysis to the high-functioning people who comprise functional societies with replacement-level fertility, in theory. 115 average IQs in the absolute best historical case.

This workforce (and their employers) can only be organized according to principles that are just barely beyond the agrarian level of social complexity, which means you can just barely force-fit them into an assembly line process. But they aren’t going to like it, and they’ll need to go home and play Farming Simulator to let off steam from the evolutionary mismatch between their psychology and their lives. If we look at knowledge workers as a class (lawyers, doctors, programmers), they are invariably billing by the hour, or their employer is billing by the hour on their behalf. Best-case scenario, they’re on a fixed salary with a boss whose IQ is north of 130, who understands deeply that work is about results and not effort. (Luckily, that’s the situation I’m currently in.) This isn’t a solution that scales up, and even then the 130-IQ boss will be working within a corporate structure organized for people with 115 IQs.

Returning to the idea of continuing education, the 10 hours have to go somewhere in a normal working week. As of 2025, employers have toyed with the ideas of education leave (which requires you to enroll in formal higher education–not ideal), tuition reimbursement, and sending people to training seminars. In the worst case, employers bill the customer for “research” time, which sets up a perverse incentive for employers to have knowledge workers who are as ignorant and inefficient as possible. The best case is actually Google’s 20% project time, where programmers were encouraged to spend 20% of their time on the clock working on personal passion projects. (Naturally, this excellent program has largely faded as Google’s average level of talent has regressed to the mean of its host society.) None of these solutions is ideal.

Neither is it ideal for employers to push this responsibility entirely on their knowledge workers, because this creates an unfortunate dichotomy between family formation and skill formation. That is, expecting married people with kids to find 10 hours of free time is ridiculous. This is an unfortunate misapplication of social norms meant for ambitious young twenty-somethings just starting their careers onto the entire class of knowledge workers. The result of this catch-22 must be either stagnation of knowledge workers’ skillsets or a fertility crisis among them, and in practice we see both simultaneously. That said, there is some truth to the idea that motivated people must carve out time for something important to them, I’m not disputing that. What I am disputing is the idea that carving out 10 hours of free time is a reasonable social expectation for non-bachelors (or bachelorettes). And I hope I need not prove that middle-aged married people with kids should have different social expectations (but please let me know if you need that).

Here’s how I think it would work in a more ideal world. A knowledge worker shows up to work and studies for an hour on the company’s dime. Then, he stays after work for another hour and studies on his own dime (or does it over lunch, or comes in an hour early). Done five days per week, this makes 10 hours, it’s split up for best retention and a good routine, and it doesn’t cut into the weekend time necessary for house projects, family visits, and observing the Lord’s day of rest. Splitting the time burden accounts for the fact that both the employer and the worker stand to benefit from the increase in skill level, so that it’s no longer this weird push-pull between nicey-nice cooperation and healthy boundaries and the hard economic realities of a collective action problem.

“But AP, some jobs need more than 10 hours per week of continuing education, and some need less!”

I don’t typically try to navigate all possible objections, because Cal Newport says this is bad advice writing and readers are smart enough to modify advice for their own situation, but I’ll make an exception because I’m trying to convince you that 50-50 is a reasonable rule of thumb. If this were common sense, it would already be common practice. So here’s what you do: figure out how much time is appropriate…and split that number 50-50. Pretty simple! Let’s say Brian Tracy is right and Warren Buffet spends 80% of his time learning about the industries he invests in. Is it unreasonable to pass this cost, effectively 80% of his salary, bonuses, etc., on to the stockholders of his company? They don’t seem to mind, provided he turns it into profit. Is it unreasonable to ask him to carve out 40 hours per week of his personal time (assuming a 50-hour workweek)? No, I don’t think so. As a rule of thumb, a person working at that level is supposed to be so absurdly, abnormally energetic that he can work full-time, study full-time, and manage a healthy family without experiencing a decline in sleep quality or quantity. If he weren’t it would indicate a failure of either the efficient market hypothesis or the society’s moral values, to put it gently.

I don’t know whether Warren Buffet has a healthy family life, we’re just saying that ideally he would and this is what it would look like in a healthy society. (And actually, if we assume 40 hours is the right number for studying because that’s what he’s already doing, it would be more like 20 hours of his free time. In reality, he probably does a lot of studying at home too, so let’s say 25 hours at work and 25 at home for a total of 50.)

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Math question that unexpectedly appears to correlate with vivid visualization

There’s an old question from one of my math proofs classes that I like to ask people because it’s accessible to adults and children alike, and it’s interesting to see how they attempt to answer it.

Imagine a blue circle. Now imagine a red circle of the same size touching the edge of the blue circle. How many red circles can fit around the perimeter of the blue circle without overlapping? (They are allowed to touch.)

Try to answer this however you’d like, then look at the answer here. (In the proofs class we learned how to prove this is the correct number.)

When I ask this question in real life, what strikes me most is that no one has ever taken longer than a full second to answer. I understand blurting out the first number that comes to mind, but there doesn’t seem to be the normal instinct semi-smart people have for logical speech where they second-guess the thing they blurted out and try to get more correct over time. What I take away from this is people really don’t like thinking about math if they don’t have to, and they aren’t embarrassed about getting math questions wrong the way they would be of getting a logic or vocabulary question wrong.

But more importantly, I’ve observed that only people who I know can imagine vividly, and apply this capacity to answer the question, can answer it correctly in less than a second. You can see them doing it by watching their eyes, although it’s difficult to explain how to detect this. People with foggier imaginations, like me, tend to undershoot the correct number because we can’t see the image of the circles in our minds quickly and perfectly. So we blurt out an approximate guess and then look the questioner in the eye wait to see if our guess was lucky. People who are vividly imagining the circles will typically keep their eyes on the visualization as they answer, and answer more confidently (but also conservatively in case they aren’t understanding the question).

It’s a fairly small pool of data so far, but I’ve seen this in a range of ages from six to mid-sixties. The vivid visualizers who answer correctly all have great natural talent for visual arts like drawing and painting.

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Hogan’s Development Survey as applied to the Peter Principle (the bait-and-switch leader)

The Peter Principle says people rise until they are incompetent to do their current job, at which point they cease to rise. Let’s imagine that it’s stressful to be incompetent. Hogan’s Development Survey predicts people’s strengths would become weaknesses when this happens:

The Hogan Development Survey (HDS) is a workplace personality assessment designed to identify derailment risks—patterns of behavior that tend to emerge under stress, fatigue, or pressure and can undermine leadership effectiveness, relationships, and career progress.

It is explicitly not a clinical or diagnostic tool. It is grounded in normal personality theory and organizational psychology.


Purpose and Conceptual Frame

The HDS focuses on what Hogan calls the “dark side” of personality:

  • Talents and strengths that are useful in moderation
  • Become liabilities when overused, misapplied, or triggered by stress

The core idea:

People often fail not because they lack strengths, but because their strengths turn into excesses.

[…]


The 11 HDS Scales

The HDS measures 11 derailers, each loosely aligned with clinical personality disorder themes (but deliberately non-clinical).

1. Excitable

  • Risk: Emotional volatility, moodiness, overreaction
  • Under stress: Enthusiastic → Disappointed → Angry / Withdrawn

2. Skeptical

  • Risk: Distrust, cynicism, hostility
  • Under stress: Insightful → Suspicious → Combative

3. Cautious

  • Risk: Risk-aversion, indecision, fear of failure
  • Under stress: Careful → Hesitant → Avoidant

4. Reserved

  • Risk: Emotional detachment, aloofness
  • Under stress: Independent → Cold → Isolated

5. Leisurely

  • Risk: Passive-aggressive resistance
  • Under stress: Agreeable → Uncooperative → Stubborn

6. Bold

  • Risk: Arrogance, entitlement, overconfidence
  • Under stress: Confident → Self-centered → Unteachable

7. Mischievous

  • Risk: Risk-taking, manipulation, rule-bending
  • Under stress: Charming → Reckless → Untrustworthy

8. Colorful

  • Risk: Attention-seeking, impulsivity
  • Under stress: Expressive → Dramatic → Distracting

9. Imaginative

  • Risk: Eccentricity, impracticality
  • Under stress: Creative → Odd → Disconnected

10. Diligent

  • Risk: Micromanagement, perfectionism
  • Under stress: High standards → Controlling → Critical

11. Dutiful

  • Risk: Excessive deference, inability to push back
  • Under stress: Cooperative → Dependent → Resentful

-Chat GPT

If you’ve ever seen someone do a face-heel turn immediately after getting into a new position, whether at work or otherwise, then this could be the reason. It would look like a bait-and-switch.

From 1-10, I’d self-rate like so:

  • 2: Excitable
  • 7: Skeptical
  • 6: Cautious
  • 4: Reserved
  • 2: Leisurely
  • 5: Bold
  • 2: Mischievous
  • 3: Colorful
  • 9: Imaginative
  • 5: Diligent
  • 6: Dutiful

This profiling system is new to me, but I’m finding it most useful to think of people as having a dominant trait rather than existing on all of these spectra, similar to how people tend to have a dominant vice. For example, like C.S. Lewis I don’t have the trait that predisposes people to gambling, and undoubtedly I lack the corresponding virtue (probably acquisitiveness, and perhaps competitiveness more broadly). In the Hogan system, I believe my dominant trait is “Imaginative,” and I expect that’s what others would report, which more or less predicts psychosis under stress. That matches my observation that elevated absent-mindedness means I need to slow down and get some rest. (I’m always pretty absent-minded, but with coping mechanisms that keep me functional.)

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Absence of courage is due to the absence of passion

This is a trivial insight in retrospect, but an important one for troubleshooting the apparent loss of reproductive and survival instincts in post-industrial populations. Treating this as purely an absence of courage presupposes that people have desires that they want to fulfill but they are opposed and overcome by fear. But this is not in evidence, and we have lots of evidence that people don’t lack the power to achieve their desires, but instead have insignificant passions to begin with. This is just a rediscovery of C.S. Lewis’s lament that we have created “men without chests,” or perhaps more apropos to the fertility question, “We castrate and bid the geldings be fruitful.”

The question then is not about ability, courage, or motivation, which puts the cart before the horse, but about where desire comes from. For a trivial example, it may not be that people lack the courage to be truthful, rather we observe they don’t miss the truth in its absence because they don’t value it more highly than their Disney+ subscriptions.

C.S. Lewis viewed the absence of passion (desire for good things) as a sign of spiritual weakness, seeing humans as “half-hearted creatures” distracted by lesser joys (mud pies) when offered “infinite joy” in God. He believed true passion isn’t about grand emotions but a steady, obedient pursuit of the good, finding that strong feelings often fade, but dedicated practice builds lasting interest, leading from fleeting thrills to deeper, more substantial joys, like moving from a crush to real love, or from seeing a place to living in it. For Lewis, overcoming temptation reveals the strength of evil, while true faith involves actively pursuing the right path, even when feelings lag. 

Google AI summary

I’m also reminded of Cal Newport’s TED Talk on this.

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Notes from first swim lesson

– On a holistic level, we want to glide over the water effortlessly, not muscle through it. It’s better to gently float on a big breath than to pull and kick strongly. Our inspiration here is to think of a ballerina lightly balanced, arms extended with relaxed grace.
– Keep your head level. Just rest your face on top of the water and look slightly ahead.
– Practice stretching your body out both at home and in the water. The glide position should become automatic and comfortable to assume.
– In particular, practice stretching the top of your feet and the front of your ankles and calves so that the water pressure on your toes is less stressful. The foot muscles will get stronger as you swim so that they don’t cramp.
– Practice just gliding, with butt semi-clenched and hips forward, creating a long arch from your back to your thighs. When your legs drop, it’s because you’ve lost this arch. It requires core strength, so at first it’ll feel tense, but when your core is stronger it will be more relaxed. To win at this drill, minimize kicking over time until it’s zero.
– When you’re front-crawling, square your chest toward the bottom and don’t dip your shoulders. Roll them upward minimally during the recovery.
– Take big breaths to help you float. This is supremely important. To expand your lung capacity, do underwater laps and high-intensity intervals of 50 meters every 90 seconds. (NB: This is more of an early build or late base period drill.) Practice treading water with as little motion as possible to build an intuition for feeling light and floaty in the water. Play in the water by gliding around with minimal effort.
– Kicking should be relatively gentle and feet should only travel about 6 inches. Imagine you’re kicking inside a bucket. Kick from the hips with semi-rigid knees and in a whip-like motion (like people doing ropes at the gym). Feet should be pointed but mostly relaxed (hence all the stretching).
– Use the kickboard and fins as a drill to force good kicking technique, but somewhat sparingly because this is tough on the muscles.

The initial plan is to spend a month swimming gently and playfully with no metrics or structure other than time spent in the pool, until this stuff has sunk in and the stroke has naturally incorporated these ideas. Eventually we’ll progress this to mostly zone 2 training with a bare minimum of zone 4 and 5.

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Sebjen re: what you can change and what you can’t

From before:

These will be subjective ratings from 1-10 based on my knowledge and experience. A one means you basically can’t change the trait, and if you do the interventions have to be pretty extreme. An example of something rated “1” is height: there’s an invasive surgery you can get where they break your legs and add an inch or two of material, and you hope it heals back right, but for practical purposes you can’t do anything to change your height. It’s not meant to be a ratio scale, so the position is only meant to say that there’s more “potential” (left ambiguous) to change something rated 7 than to change something rated a 6.

https://aeolipera.wordpress.com/2025/07/09/what-you-can-change-and-what-you-cant-re-goals-my-opinions-wip/

And now, from https://www.technotheoria.org/p/meta-analysis-of-1250-correlations?triedRedirect=true:

Image

Let’s imagine that heritability and intractability are the same thing (they aren’t), for the purpose of ballparking the difficulty of changing these things. Then 85% heritability (height) corresponds to a subjective tractability of 1 and 45% heritability (education) corresponds to a subjective 6 (broad academic achievement). Roughly speaking, then, each point on my subjective scale corresponds to about 8% heritability, starting from about 0%.

Let’s compare my impressions to Sebjen’s meta-analysis.

Image

Because I broke out the wealth category as a function of several variables, it was difficult to pick a category to match against those.

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Looking for personality correlates for idealism vs. pragmatism

In “Thwarting Enemies at Home and Abroad” by William R. Johnson, he talks about how intelligence people put potential assets on a spectrum from idealistic to pragmatic. For an ideologue to change sides, he has to be convinced out of his previous political position into a new one. After that, you can hook him with cash for living expenses, but if you go in cash-first you’re going to get rebuffed. With pragmatists, you just give them cash and they’ll work with you. He also notes that, although intel people respect ideologues more, they basically don’t exist anymore. That might be because modern politics filters them out, but based on my experience of ordinary people today as compared to ordinary people in 1700–who would have struck me as hyperreligious whackadoodles–it’s probably evolutionary selection.

Having briefly introduced the spectrum (I’d post a selection from the book if it were conveniently in front of me), I’m curious whether anyone out there is aware of a psychometric construct that maps to this tradecraft. I tried finding one with Chat GPT but was unsuccessful. Actually, it’s a lot smarter now than it was a few months ago, let me try again real quick…

There is no widely used psychometric scale that exactly matches the idealism vs. pragmatism distinction as framed in Thwarting Enemies at Home and Abroad, but several well-studied constructs map onto portions of that spectrum. The most relevant clusters are:

1. Personal Values (Schwartz Value Theory)
The strongest empirical match.

  • Idealism aligns with Self-Transcendence values (universalism, benevolence, moral principle).
  • Pragmatism aligns with Self-Enhancement and sometimes Conservation (power, achievement, practicality, realism, stability).
    This framework is validated internationally and is often used to map moral/strategic orientations.

2. Moral Foundations Theory
Maps some components but not the whole spectrum.

  • Idealistic stances often correlate with Care and Fairness emphasis.
  • Pragmatic stances correlate with stronger weighting of Loyalty, Authority, and Sanctity, which are more context-sensitive and outcome-oriented in practice.

NB: This maps to leftism vs. rightism in Haidt’s moral foundations theory of politics.

3. Cognitive Style: Need for Cognition vs. Need for Closure
Not a moral orientation, but it parallels strategic temperament.

  • Idealism loosely correlates with Need for Cognition (comfort with complexity, principle-driven reasoning).
  • Pragmatism correlates with Need for Closure (decisiveness, preference for clear actionable answers).

NB: This appears to be related to fundamentalism, Judging (J) in MBTI, and on the other hand having too much free time and mental energy (Openness in Big 5).

4. Psychopathy Factor 1 vs. Agreeableness/Empathy
This does not map cleanly, but it appears in some intelligence-community literature:

  • Idealists emphasize empathic constraints.
  • Pragmatists may more readily separate action from moral sentiment.
    However, this is a risky mapping because it can pathologize pragmatism; it is not used in standard research for this purpose.

5. Utilitarian vs. Deontological Moral Orientation (Greene et al.)
This is close but narrower:

  • Idealism resembles deontological consistency with moral rules.
  • Pragmatism resembles instrumental utilitarianism.
    But this model focuses on moral dilemma responses, not general temperament.

Nearest Overall Match
Schwartz’s Self-Transcendence vs. Self-Enhancement axis is the closest empirically validated analog to the book’s idealism–pragmatism axis. It captures whether someone prioritizes moral principle and abstract goods versus concrete outcomes and personal/collective effectiveness.

-Chat GPT

Please compare and contrast the poles of Schwartz’s Value Theory and describe how it’s measured.

Structure of Schwartz’s Theory
Schwartz’s model is a circular space of ten basic values organized into higher-order bipolar poles. Opposite poles imply motivational conflict; adjacent values are compatible. The two main axes are:


1. Self-Transcendence vs. Self-Enhancement

Self-Transcendence

  • Core motive: promoting the welfare of others and upholding moral ideals.
  • Values: Universalism (justice, equality, protection of nature) and Benevolence (helping close others, loyalty, forgiveness).
  • Typical correlates: cooperative norms, principled moral reasoning, prosocial behavior, willingness to sacrifice self-interest for ethical consistency.

Self-Enhancement

  • Core motive: advancing one’s own position, status, and agency.
  • Values: Power (dominance, authority, control over resources) and Achievement (success, competence, demonstrating ability).
  • Typical correlates: strategic thinking, competitiveness, preference for instrumental action, comfort with hierarchy.

NB: This reminds me of that old yarn about dominance vs. prestige hierarchies.

Contrast

  • Self-Transcendence prioritizes intrinsic moral goods; Self-Enhancement prioritizes instrumental effectiveness.
  • In behavior, transcendence predicts generosity and equality preferences; enhancement predicts assertiveness and goal-directed behavior.

2. Openness to Change vs. Conservation

Openness to Change

  • Core motive: autonomy, novelty, independent thought.
  • Values: Self-Direction (creativity, choosing own goals) and Stimulation (excitement, challenge). Hedonism often sits near this pole.
  • Associated with: preference for innovation, willingness to revise assumptions, flexibility.

This reminds me of intrinsic motivators in Daniel Pink’s “Drive”. That immediately makes sense, because in the counterintelligence sense “pragmatic” just means “motivated by extrinsic cash from whoever’s paying better”.

Conservation

  • Core motive: maintaining order, stability, and predictability.
  • Values: Security (safety, social order), Conformity (restraint of disruptive impulses, adherence to norms), and Tradition (respect for customs, religious/communal continuity).
  • Associated with: rule-following, risk-aversion, preference for continuity.

Contrast

  • Openness favors change and autonomy; Conservation favors stability and preservation of existing norms.
  • In behavior, openness predicts creativity and exploration; conservation predicts reliability and structured environments.

Measurement

Schwartz’s values are measured using standardized self-report instruments:

1. Schwartz Value Survey (SVS)

  • 57–60 items.
  • Respondents rate importance of various abstract value statements (e.g., equality, authority, creativity) on a 9-point scale from “opposed to my values” to “supreme importance.”
  • Produces a value profile plotted on the circular structure.

2. Portrait Values Questionnaire (PVQ)

  • Multiple versions: PVQ-21, PVQ-40, PVQ-57.
  • Respondents read short character descriptions (e.g., “Thinking up new ideas and being creative is important to him. He likes to do things in his own original way.”) and rate similarity to themselves.
  • Designed to reduce abstraction and increase reliability across cultures.

3. Scoring

  • Each basic value receives an averaged score from its items.
  • Values are then mean-centered to remove individual response biases.
  • Higher-order poles (Self-Transcendence, Self-Enhancement, Openness to Change, Conservation) are formed by combining their constituent value scores.

Pretty standard.

The question still stands: If anyone out there is aware of a psychometric construct that measures this spectrum more directly, please let me know.

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Re: Hanania

Today I read half of two Richard Hanania substack posts, decided neither was worth finishing, and wrote him off as a third-rate mind. His conscientiousness as a writer is worth emulating, but his psychological ideas are shallow and don’t survive initial scrutiny.

For example, his entire argument in https://www.richardhanania.com/p/shut-up-about-race-and-iq?utm_campaign=posts-open-in-app&triedRedirect=true rests on the premise that it doesn’t matter what people believe.

Aesthetics and Impulses Come First, Descriptive Beliefs Second

Nathan Cofnas says we should raise the salience of race differences because otherwise leftists will always win any argument, and be able to justify affirmative action, DEI, and white guilt. This seems to me a clear instance of putting the cart in front of the horse. It’s not the case that people have a scientific theory about inequality, so they go on and favor steps to reduce it. Rather, they begin with a dislike of inequality and then adopt whatever scientific theories make them feel good, mostly as an afterthought.

This can be clearly seen in the case of sex. In many ways, society accepts men and women are different. Yet civil rights law and programs to for example get more young girls into coding are able to easily ignore this fact when convenient. When I’ve talked to leftists about equity initiatives based on sex, and asked how they can reconcile them with obvious biological differences, they don’t find it too difficult to say ok, men might be more likely to be interested in something like coding, but there’s still so much we can do to encourage the women who do have the talent to go into the field. During the Super Bowl, I saw a Dove commercial that lamented the fact that teenage girls don’t like playing sports as much as boys do. Are there many people who are blank slatists when it comes to the question of which sex likes sports better? Perhaps, but the idea that “group differences exist, but unequal outcomes have a large societal component we should fix” is a perfectly coherent position.

This premise simply isn’t true. Further, he clearly considers it a rock-solid starting position. So we need not proceed.

A short counterargument:

  1. Arguing that argument is ineffective is a performative contradiction. I can’t come up with a flattering interpretation for that observation.
  2. The model can’t explain preference cascades, e.g. the fall of the Soviet Union.
  3. A stronger model is one with “levels” of belief e.g. (https://aeolipera.wordpress.com/2025/04/30/levels-of-belief-reprise-via-rory-miller/) that treats normies and social influencers differently.

Cofnas made a much more sound argument for the opposite position here: https://ncofnas.com/p/beating-woke-with-facts-and-logic

Hanania’s book on civil rights law was a good waypoint, but it was pretty boring to actually read. I think he would do well to redirect his efforts from vibe patrolling to use his conscientiousness more effectively on establishing common insights as citable facts. If you’re a boring person you should do boring things, and there’s a lot of dignity in that job. Playing vibe patrol is outside of his strengths and there are already too many volunteers vying for that job.

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