FanGraphs Weekly Mailbag: December 27, 2025

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Matt Marton-Imagn Images

Hello everyone, and welcome to the final mailbag of 2025! I hope you are all having a wonderful holiday season.

We are now officially in what my family refers to as the lobe of the year, the week between Christmas and New Year, when a lot of us wind down and spend time with friends and loved ones. It’s a time for relaxing and reflecting. You’ll notice that here at FanGraphs, aside from this mailbag and a few transaction reactions, we are mostly taking it slow. Instead, we’re republishing our favorite FanGraphs pieces of the year. You can check those out here, or as they populate the homepage from now through the end of next week.

In this week’s mailbag, we’ll cover the best players who never received a Hall of Fame vote, NPB posting rules, and Dillon Dingler’s breakout season. Before we do, though, I’d like to remind you that this mailbag is exclusive to FanGraphs Members. If you aren’t yet a Member and would like to keep reading, you can sign up for a Membership here. It’s the best way to both experience the site and support our staff, and it comes with a bunch of other great benefits. Also, if you’d like to ask a question for an upcoming mailbag, send me an email at mailbag@fangraphs.com. Read the rest of this entry »


Effectively Wild Episode 2419: TJ and TK in Triple-A

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh talks to two pitchers who topped out at Triple-A in 2025, which was a demotion for one and a promotion for the other. First, he brings back Rangers pitcher Declan Cronin, the only major leaguer alum of Ben’s high school, to discuss a setback of a season that included a mysterious hip injury, compromised mechanics, diminished stuff, a cutthroat release and, finally, Tommy John surgery. Along the way, they cover the urge to play through injuries, joining the Rangers after being unceremoniously jettisoned by the Marlins, what tearing a UCL feels like, the incentives that lead to elbow problems, Declan’s plan to bounce back from a challenging year, MLB-NWSL romances, and competing with other players for wedding dates. Then (1:05:45), Ben talks to White Sox pitcher/sportswriter Duncan Davitt about becoming a journalist on the side, being on both ends of interviews, being blacked out of baseball broadcasts, the plight and importance of local media, his deceptive delivery, being traded and making a 40-man for the first time, what he has to do to earn a call-up, whether pitchers wear protective cups, and much more.

Audio intro: Ian Phillips, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Jonathan Crymes, “Effectively Wild Theme 2

Link to “TK” journalism term
Link to MLBTR on Soderstrom
Link to Regis High School wiki
Link to Declan’s first pod appearance
Link to Declan’s second pod appearance
Link to article about baseball weddings
Link to Declan t-shirt
Link to MLBTR on Declan’s TJ
Link to list of TJ surgeries
Link to cascade injury article
Link to MLBTR on Declan’s deal
Link to team RP WPA
Link to team RP WAR
Link to staff page at Tread
Link to Tyler Zombro wiki
Link to Paige Monaghan wiki
Link to Paige’s wedding post
Link to Dansby/Mallory article
Link to Peña/Grosso engagement
Link to Duncan strikeout reel
Link to Register feature on Duncan
Link to Sox Machine feature on Duncan
Link to Duncan’s wedding post
Link to Rays prospect ranking
Link to traded prospects ranking
Link to minor league IP leaders
Link to Ben on deception
Link to Indianola IA website
Link to Indianola wiki
Link to J.D. Scholten appearance
Link to Indianola IA sports page
Link to Duncan’s boys’ basketball article
Link to Duncan’s girls’ basketball article
Link to Duncan on the offseason
Link to Duncan on the trade
Link to Duncan on the 40-man
Link to Duncan on Triple-A
Link to Duncan on big league belief
Link to Laurila’s notes column
Link to Ben on the gap in 2025
Link to Ben on the gap in 2015
Link to Davenport on the gap
Link to MLB.com on Abbott Elementary
Link to Schwarber’s 4-HR game
Link to MLB survey question

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Pirates Make Their Largest Position Player Free Agent Signing in Franchise History

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Denis Poroy-Imagn Images

One day after boom-or-bust Japanese slugger Munetaka Murakami was officially introduced as a new member of the White Sox on a two-year, $34 million pact, FanSided’s Robert Murray reported that the Pirates have inked fellow left-handed first baseman Ryan O’Hearn to a two-year, $29 million deal.

This framing device will eventually lose its White Sox trappings, but they’re initially connected just because the South Siders were linked to O’Hearn early in the offseason, before they pivoted from a reliable and proven big leaguer to an attention-grabbing international signing. Murakami has a deeply volatile profile with significant bust potential, but a famed home run hitter and two-time MVP of NPB picking a relative MLB backwater is intriguing not only for beleaguered White Sox ticket sales employees, but also for outlets like this one that observe the league at large. How the talents of a legendary Japanese slugger with apparently bottom-of-the-scale contact ability translate to MLB is fascinating, whereas pondering whether a 32-year-old hit-over-power first baseman like O’Hearn can keep a later-career breakout going is more the usual fare. Even for the largest position player free agent signing in Pirates franchise history, O’Hearn is newsworthy mostly in terms of how well he might fill a short-term need for a role player. Read the rest of this entry »


Job Posting: Washington Nationals – Player Valuation Specialist, Pro Acquisitions

Player Valuation Specialist, Pro Acquisitions

Our Vision

To become baseball’s highest performing organization — defined by our relentless pursuit of excellence, strengthened by our connection, and fueled by our positive energy.

Our Core Values

  • Joy: We want to be around people that like to have fun. We remain optimistic through the ups and downs, we enjoy the process, and we share in something bigger than ourselves.
  • Humility: We don’t have all the answers. We lead with curiosity, listen generously, and seek growth from every experience — especially the tough ones. We have gotten over ourselves.
  • Integrity: We do the right thing, even when it’s hard. We act with honesty, accountability, and respect for our teammates and ourselves. We treat the custodian like the king.
  • Competitiveness: We embrace challenges and thrive in high-stakes environments. We prepare relentlessly. We are energized by the idea of keeping score.

Position Summary
The Pro Player Valuation Specialist will play a key role in the Pro Acquisitions department, supporting the departmental focus of evaluating and recommending professional player transactions. The Pro Player Valuation Specialist will supplement and refine internal valuations of professional players, leveraging diverse information sources, resources from other departments, and baseball insights.

Primary Responsibilities

  • Serve as the in-house expert on a certain set of professional players, authoring and maintaining up-to-date reports on those players
  • Brainstorm and propose actionable transaction recommendations
  • Collect and apply novel information sources to improve player evaluations
  • Leverage baseball familiarity to understand the relationships that shape player value
  • Understand and effectively supplement automated player valuation systems
  • Participate in priority setting and thought partnering for quantitative valuation research
  • Partner with staff across departments to leverage insights relevant to player evaluation
  • Pursue learning opportunities to further awareness of player evaluation concepts

Qualifications

  • An understanding of modern approaches for evaluating baseball players, including industry trends and available information sources
  • Ability to integrate information from diverse sources and communicate insights succinctly
  • Passion for learning and ability to understand insights from stakeholders across the organization
  • Basic awareness of quantitative modeling methods and database querying
  • Ability to thrive in a fast-paced, collaborative, and highly confidential environment
  • Deep alignment with and promotion of the organization’s values and vision
  • Baseball experience and/or experience with player analysis preferred
  • Professional experience in sports or in an analytical role preferred
  • Proficiency in SQL, R, and/or Python preferred
  • Ability to work evenings, weekends, and holidays as needed

Compensation
The projected annual salary range for this position is $60,000 – $90,000 per year. Actual pay is based on several factors, including but not limited to the applicant’s: qualifications, skills, expertise, education/training, certifications, and other organization requirements. Starting salaries for new employees are frequently not at the top of the applicable salary range.

Benefits:
The Nationals offer a competitive and comprehensive benefits package that presently includes:

  • Medical, dental, vision, life and AD&D insurance
  • Short- and long-term disability insurance
  • Flexible spending accounts
  • 401(k) and pension plan
  • Access to complimentary tickets to Nationals home games
  • Employee discounts
  • Free onsite fitness center

Equal Opportunity Employer:
The Nationals are dedicated to offering equal employment and advancement opportunities to all individuals regardless of their race, color, religion, national origin, sex, age, marital status, personal appearance, sexual orientation, gender identity or expression, family responsibilities, matriculation, political affiliation, genetic information, disability, or any other protected characteristic under applicable law.

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Washington Nationals.


Job Posting: Houston Astros – Staff Identification Program

Houston Astros Staff Identification Program

Summary:
The Houston Astros are seeking individuals with professional baseball coaching aspirations to participate in a virtual education program with the potential for an invitation to an off-season Player Development camp at the Astros’ spring training complex in West Palm Beach, Florida.

Staff Identification program participants will be immersed and exposed to the inner workings of the Astros Player Development department and provided the opportunity to learn from current staff and coordinators. Additionally, program participants will be provided with professional development classes to further their knowledge of specific player development disciplines.

Format:

  • Program will begin in April 2026
  • Biweekly virtual meetings via Microsoft Teams
  • Select participants may receive an invitation to an off-season Player Development camp in West Palm Beach, FL in the fall of 2026

Objectives:

  • Introduce the foundational elements of the professional player development system
  • Develop basic competency in pitching, hitting, and defensive instruction
  • Leverage biomechanics and quantitative information to design effective practice settings
  • Interpret basic baseball performance data and apply it to coaching and personnel decisions
  • Learn to communicate effectively with athletes and staff from other disciplines
  • Produce an individualized player plan and receive feedback from staff

Candidates should have interest in the following topics:

  • Roster restrictions and decisions in minor league baseball
  • Foundations of pitching, hitting, and defensive development
  • Baserunning instruction
  • Informed development using sports science testing, biomechanics, on-field technology, high-speed video, and in-game data as well as practice design for hitting, pitching, and defense

Requirements / Qualifications:

  • Interest in on-field coaching, including throwing batting practice and hitting fungo
  • Curiosity about player development, strength & conditioning, and analytics
  • Some familiarity with information and/or tools used in professional baseball
  • Strong interpersonal/communication skills and work ethic
  • Professional or collegiate playing experience is a plus
  • Proficiency in Spanish is a plus

Other Notes:

  • Program will be at no cost to selected participants
  • If selected to participate in person, travel and hotel expenses will be covered by the Houston Astros
  • Inquiries can be sent to dl-staffid@astros.com

To Apply
To apply, please follow this link.

The content in this posting was created and provided solely by the Houston Astros.


Effectively Wild Episode 2418: The Challenge System Challenge

EWFI
Ben Lindbergh, Craig Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus, and Joe Sheehan of The Joe Sheehan Baseball Newsletter break down teams’ last-minute Christmas shopping—including the White Sox signing Munetaka Murakami, the Padres signing Michael King and Sung Mun Song, the Orioles trading for Shane Baz, the Red Sox trading for Willson Contreras, a three-team trade involving the Pirates, Rays, and Astros, Jeff McNeil and Matt Strahm swaps, and the Yankees’ hibernation—plus banter about the quasi-retirement of Craig’s nemesis, Joe Kelly, the future of NPB, a report about Emmanuel Clase’s mid-game phone use, and supporting independent media. Then (1:11:40) they conduct an in-depth debate about the respective merits of human umpiring, the challenge system, and full ABS.

Audio intro: Harold Walker, “Effectively Wild Theme
Audio outro: Tom Rhoads, “Effectively Wild Theme

Link to Kelly’s podcast
Link to Dubuque on the challenge system
Link to Craig on the challenge system
Link to Joe on the challenge system
Link to previous podcast discussion
Link to Seitz decision wiki
Link to Joe on the Seitz decision
Link to over/under draft results
Link to Baumann on Murakami
Link to Rosenblum on Murakami
Link to Longenhagen on Murakami
Link to Craig on Murakami
Link to Sarris on Murakami
Link to Ben on Murakami in 2022
Link to Sato story
Link to FG post on King
Link to FG post on Song
Link to FG post on Baz
Link to Craig on Baz
Link to team SP projections
Link to Joe on three-team trade
Link to FG post on three-team trade
Link to FG post on Contreras
Link to FG post on Strahm
Link to Strahm’s beer stance
Link to Bowlan info
Link to FG post on McNeil
Link to Lindor/McNeil drama
Link to Clase report
Link to Dylan phone ban
Link to Molina framing montage
Link to framing technique evolution
Link to Molina on EW
Link to Craig on the K-Zone
Link to Tango on challenge tactics
Link to Five and Dive
Link to subscribe to BP
Link to subscribe to Joe
Link to MLBTR on O’Hearn
Link to Posnanski MVP post
Link to A’s ballpark update
Link to Rian Johnson post

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And the 2025 Kit Keller Award Goes To…

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Courier & Press-USA TODAY NETWORK

I got sick last week. So did my wife. We canceled our plans. We spent the weekend horizontal. We watched TV. On Sunday morning, I woke up and found my wife on the couch watching A League of Their Own. I did what anyone does when they catch a glimpse of the greatest baseball movie of all time on television. I sat down and watched the rest of it.

I’m still kind of sick. My wife is still fully sick. A League of Their Own is still on my mind. Specifically, I’ve been thinking about the scouting report that Rockford Peaches catcher Dottie Hinson (Geena Davis) delivered to pitcher Ellen Sue Gotlander (Freddie Simpson) with two outs and the tying run on first in the bottom of the ninth in Game 7 of the World Series in Racine. I had useful thoughts, and we’ll get to those in a moment. First, though, we’re going to wade through some useless thoughts. I beg you to humor me, because I am about to critique the baseball strategy in a perfect movie. I told you I’m sick.

There’s nothing wrong with making a mound visit in a big moment, giving the pitcher a break and reminding them of the scouting report. But the batter was Hinson’s sister Kit Keller (Lori Petty), who spent nearly the entire season with the Peaches, then faced them throughout the Series, including three times alone in Game 7. There’s no way Ellen Sue needed a refresher on that particular scouting report. Then, there’s the scouting report itself. “High fastballs,” Dottie said. “Can’t hit ‘em, can’t lay off ‘em.” It was right on the money, but they didn’t have to follow it on every single pitch, did they? Once they’d jumped ahead 0-2, did it never occur to Dottie or Ellen Sue to waste a breaking ball in the dirt in order to reset Kit’s eye level? I don’t care who’s at the plate; you can’t throw the same pitch to the same spot three times in a row and expect to get away with it. Read the rest of this entry »


JAWS and the 2026 Hall of Fame Ballot: Edwin Encarnación

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Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

The following article is part of Jay Jaffe’s ongoing look at the candidates on the BBWAA 2026 Hall of Fame ballot. For a detailed introduction to this year’s ballot, and other candidates in the series, use the tool above; an introduction to JAWS can be found here. For a tentative schedule and a chance to fill out a Hall of Fame ballot for our crowdsourcing project, see here. All WAR figures refer to the Baseball Reference version unless otherwise indicated.

Though he was athletic enough to be drafted as a shortstop, Edwin Encarnación never found much success in the field. Through his first seven seasons with the Reds and Blue Jays, his defensive miscues offset generally solid offense, so much so that he earned the derisive nickname “E5” (as in error, third base). But as with his late-blooming teammate in Toronto, José Bautista, when adjustments to Encarnación’s swing unlocked his in-game power, he became a force to be reckoned with.

Surrendering his third baseman’s mitt and splitting time between first base and designated hitter definitely helped. From 2012–19, Encarnación hit a major league-high 297 homers, with at least 32 in every season, and a high of 42, set in ’12 and matched in ’16. He never led the league, but placed among the AL’s top five four times, and within the top 10 in three other seasons. Among players with at least 2,500 plate appearances in that span, his 138 OPS+ ranks 10th.

The one-two punch of Bautista and Encarnación kept the Blue Jays entertaining through some lean years, and with the arrivals of third baseman Josh Donaldson and catcher Russell Martin in 2015, the team reached the playoffs for the first time since winning back-to-back World Series in 1992–93. Toronto did it again the next year, punctuated by Encarnación’s three-run walk-off homer off the Orioles’ Ubaldo Jiménez to win the 2016 AL Wild Card Game. Read the rest of this entry »


Jay Jaffe FanGraphs Chat – 12/23/25

12:02
Avatar Jay Jaffe: Good afternoon, folks, and welcome to my final chat of 2025! Very shortly my profile of Edwin Encarnación will go live on the site, my last of this calendar year but not of this cycle; I’ve got a bunch of one-and-done guys to cover in January. My Hall of Fame ballot explainer will go live a week from today, and will be in the mail the same day.

12:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: In case you’re scoring at home, that’s four new profiles thus far (Cole Hamels, Ryan Braun, Alex Gordon, and Encarnación), eight holdover profiles, and three multi-candidate roundups. You can see the schedule here — with a link to our Crowdsource Ballot, if you haven’t already partaken (https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-2026-hall-of-fame-ballot-of-your-own-and…) — or follow the links atop each post to get to the ones you missed.

12:05
Avatar Jay Jaffe: and now, on with the show.

12:06
John T.: In your Fernando Valenzuela Era Committee piece you mentioned electing more pioneers to the HOF. In that spirit, would you support electing more people with outsize influences on the game, even in unconventional ways—I’ve long thought that Dr. Frank Jobe should be in the HOF for the role he’s played in baseball history. What do you think?

12:08
Avatar Jay Jaffe: I think once we establish this as a viable route into the Hall, Jobe would definitely be one worth considering. I do find it remarkable that only two pitchers with TJs have been elected (John Smoltz and Billy Wagner), but that speaks more to the general dearth of pitchers elected over the past few decades than anything else.

12:08
Guest: If you had to pick a fifth starter for the Padres (and I’m praying for a trade or free agent signing to fill the fourth starter spot) would it JP Sears or Randy Vasquez and why?  Red is absent on both of their Statcast pages…

Read the rest of this entry »


Chicago White Sox Top 37 Prospects

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Caleb Bonemer Photo: Nick King/Lansing State Journal/USA TODAY NETWORK

Below is an analysis of the prospects in the farm system of the Chicago White Sox. Scouting reports were compiled with information provided by industry sources as well as my own observations. This is the sixth year we’re delineating between two anticipated relief roles, the abbreviations for which you’ll see in the “position” column below: MIRP for multi-inning relief pitchers, and SIRP for single-inning relief pitchers. The ETAs listed generally correspond to the year a player has to be added to the 40-man roster to avoid being made eligible for the Rule 5 draft. Manual adjustments are made where they seem appropriate, but we use that as a rule of thumb.

A quick overview of what FV (Future Value) means can be found here. A much deeper overview can be found here.

All of the ranked prospects below also appear on The Board, a resource the site offers featuring sortable scouting information for every organization. It has more details (and updated TrackMan data from various sources) than this article and integrates every team’s list so readers can compare prospects across farm systems. It can be found here. Read the rest of this entry »