Looking at my Hopes and Fears for 2025 column, two of my hopes materialized (continued economic success for Argentina and school choice in Texas), while one did not (Pierre Poilievre did not win in Canada, mostly because of Trump’s idiotic statements).
Meanwhile, none of my three fears for 2025 materialized. There was no backsliding in Argentina (confirmed by the great mid-term election results in October), Republicans did not pursue a border-adjustment tax (what I call a pre-VAT), and Europe did not stumble into a fiscal crisis (though see below).
So let’s now look at my hopes and fears for 2026.
Here are three things I hope will happen (and since this is about public policy, I won’t mention a victory for Georgia in today’s Sugar Bowl or another national title later this month).
- Milei-ism spreads across Latin America…and maybe the world – I want Argentina to prosper, but that normally doesn’t mean anything.
After all, I want countries all over the world to adopt good policy and prosper, from China to the United Kingdom. But I especially want Argentina to prosper because Milei’s bold reforms may encourage other politicians to do likewise. The first step is right-of-center candidates winning, as has happened in other nations in the region, such as Chile and Bolivia. What remains to be seen is whether these new governments actual engage in libertarian reforms. - The Supreme Court voids Trump’s unilateral tax increases on trade – Trump’s protectionist trade policy has been horrific. It is bad economic policy, obviously, but what he’s been doing presumably is unconstitutional as well. The U.S. Court of International Trade has already ruled the right way, but that decision was appealed. The Supreme Court will decide the issue later this year. Fingers crossed the Justices do the right thing.
- Revitalization of the Heritage Foundation – This may not seem like a big deal, and admittedly it’s a bit of “inside baseball” for D.C.-based policy wonks, but my former employer is going through a rough stretch. It’s received a black eye for being close with the increasingly erratic Tucker Carlson. And it has aligned itself with “national conservatives” who don’t necessarily support limited government and free trade. I’m hoping that the Heritage Foundation goes back to being a voice for “freedom conservatism.” In other words, I want my former employer to be filled with Reaganites rather than Trumpies.
Here are three things I fear could happen.
- The Supreme Court upholds Trump’s awful protectionism – I already explained the issue above, but I’m raising it again simply because this case will test whether various Justices do the right thing for the right reason. I suspect the three leftists on the Court to vote correctly merely for partisan reasons, so they’ll do the right thing for the wrong reason. But what about the six GOP-appointed Justices. In theory, they all should vote the right way for the right reason. But this will be a test whether some of them put politics about jurisprudence. I’m desperately hoping Clarence Thomas votes the right way. I don’t want him to undermine his strong legacy.
California voters approve a suicidal wealth tax – As I wrote a few days ago, California voters may be voting later this year whether to impose a wealth tax. This type of class-warfare proposal is insanely foolish. It’s especially foolish because it will be very easy for successful people to move from California to sensible states. Heck, that’s already been happening. I advise people to look at the horrible consequences of Norway’s wealth tax and imagine results that are twice as bad.- A fiscal crisis – or crises – in Europe – Economists are lousy at making predictions, so I’m not going to pretend to know when Europe will suffer another fiscal crisis. But I’m very confident that such a crisis will happen. So this item will appear every January 1 until the you-know-what hits the fan.
P.S. I linked to last year’s hopes and fears at the start of this column. You can also see what I wrote in 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018, etc.


































