States around America 🇺🇸 are allowing their residents to vote early ahead of Election Day, & the results are fascinating.
Early voting has begun in states across the country where voters are able to cast their ballots either in person or via mail. Some states provide details about the early votes that are cast, including partisan divisions and age of voters, as well as voting method. Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign has pushed for Democratic voters to utilize early voting more aggressively, seen as a tactic to help bank votes ahead of Election Day. While former President Donald Trump has been critical of early voting, his campaign and the Republican Party have also been pushing for voters to cast early ballots. (National Broadcasting Company News)
Here are some of the results that we are seeing thus far.
So far, it appears that Democrats are outpacing Republicans when it comes to Early Voting. While this is a great sign, it should not be viewed as a progressive win. Most Republicans will probably vote on Election Day, so these current trends—although encouraging—should not be mistaken for an early victory dance.
Another exciting trend is that many women are voting early, in much greater numbers than men.
Another caveat is that Democrats & women are outpacing Republicans & men in both Texas & Florida! 😮
This is also encouraging; however, an interesting trend appears when just viewing the battleground states.
When it comes to voter affiliation, Democrats are leading overall in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and North Carolina. But in Georgia, Nevada, and Arizona, Republicans are leading. In Wisconsin, Independents are slightly ahead of Democrats regarding early voting (both are ahead of the GOP).
However, when it comes to gender, something interesting emerges.
Women are outpacing men in early voting in every battleground state except Nevada and Arizona.
So What Does This Mean‽
We do not know who will win in each state based on these preliminary results. However, if I were to make a semi-educated guess, I would say that Donald Trump will win Nevada and Arizona while Kamala Harris will win Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, and Georgia (the latter only with Republican assistance).
Kamala Harris may win Texas & Florida, too!
Here is my updated map of what America may wake up to on Election Day:
However, we could also see a map like this (where Kamala Harris barely wins the Electoral College).
Hate him or love him, it is a horrifying fact that Donald Trump’s hold over the Republican Party remains unchallenged.
Image: Political satire of Donald Trump depicted as emperor from Warhammer 40k, image via Miachael Chisholm on Medium.
A recent poll from Suffolk University, NBC10 Boston & the Boston Globe revealed that 50% of Republicans are ready to back their raging political saint.
The poll results, released Wednesday morning, have Trump at 50%, Haley at 34% and DeSantis with only 5%. Another 3% chose someone else, 6% were undecided and 2% refused to answer. The survey of 500 likely Republican primary voters was conducted from Jan. 15-16. The margin of error is 4.4%. […]
Among independents, Haley beats trump by a 44% to 38% margin, while Trump leads among Republicans, 61% to 24%. Among those who consider themselves moderates or liberals, Haley leads 56% to 27%, while conservatives chose Trump by a wide 67% to 18% margin.
Update (January 18th): Two videos further breaking down Donald Trump’s New Hampshire lead over rivals in republican primary.
New Hampshire poll revealing half of New Hampshire republicans favor Donald Trump over rivals (Part 1)
New Hampshire poll revealing half of New Hampshire republicans favor Donald Trump over rivals (Part 2)
This poll at first appears to be an outlier. However, FiveThirtyEight’s aggregate data shows Donald Trump with a narrower, albeit substantial lead above Nikki Haley, with a little over 44% backing Trump (compared to Nikki Haley’s approximate 31%).
Nikki Haley’s chances to defeat Donald Trump are already slim to none, but when one looks at the pending Nevada caucus & South Carolina primary (Nikki Haley’s home state), the odds do not appear to be in her favor.
Former President Trump is 65 points ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in a new poll Nevada, which will hold caucuses for the GOP nomination next month.
The Emerson College poll of likely Nevada GOP caucus voters found Trump leading with 73 percent. DeSantis took second place, but scored just single-digit support with 8 percent.
Nikki Haley’s campaign surprisingly is not even listed in Nevada’s Republican caucus, which is a huge mistake as momentum from Trump’s pending Nevada caucus victory will carry over to Nikki Haley’s home state of South Carolina.
Just in case anyone is wondering how well Donald Trump is doing in South Carolina, the latest poll numbers are just as shocking as Iowa’s caucus results (where Trump won 51% of the vote).
Over half of the Republicans in Nikki Haley’s home state of South Carolina prefer Donald Trump over their former governor, which is astounding.
For those hoping to stop Donald Trump from securing the GOP nomination, it is probably too late as the MAGA (Make America Great Again) Republicans have taken over the party.
There is a rational albeit flawed movement within never trump conservative circles who desire Democrats & Independents to register as Republicans & stop Donald Trump in the GOP Primaries.
Note: Featured image of Nikki Haley via Britannica.
One of those states is New Hampshire, where unaffiliated voters make up a plurality of the electorate and can participate in the primary of their choice. They have repeatedly determined the winner of the first-in-the-nation presidential primary in the past, and if enough of them back Nikki Haley, it might just cost Trump the state on January 23.
That is what Robert Schwartz hopes to make happen. He’s the leader of a group called Primary Power that looks to push Democratic-leaning independents to vote against Trump in the GOP primary. Schwartz said the group has raised more than $670,000 through small and large donations, though as a 501(c)(4), its contributors are not publicly disclosed. A Democrat who spent his career working in foreign policy focusing on countries like Venezuela and Nicaragua that have suffered significant backsliding toward dictatorships, Schwartz said he is trying to make sure the same thing doesn’t happen in the U.S. with a second Trump presidency. At this point, he’s settled upon Haley as the option. “She seems to respect the Constitution,” Schwartz said. “We would have a peaceful transfer of power and free and fair elections with her as president.”
Letters to the Editor have been sent to the Los Angeles Times pleading for Democrats & Independents to vote for Nikki Haley in the upcoming primaries & caucuses, with even conservative Bill Kristol pleading with those outside of the GOP to register as Republicans in order to stop Trump.
Iowa Dems, indies, ex-Rs!
Help stop Trump. Go to your local GOP caucus Monday 7 pm. Register as Republican (if only for a day). Vote for Haley.
Haley 2nd place in IA -> wins NH, chance to defeat Trump for GOP nomination, at least weaken him.
Note: An screenshot will be included below, just in case X disappears in the future.
Screenshot of Bill Kristol on X/Twitter begging for outsiders to register as Republicans & vote against Trump
While the strategy seems smart, truth be told the reason this will fail is due to the schedule & structure of the primaries & caucuses themselves.
Picture of Iowa with Eagle 🦅 holding banner that says: “Our liberties we prize and our rights we will maintain.” Image is public domain & is from Wikipedia.
Iowa: Welcome To Trump Country
The state of Iowa will hold its GOP Caucus on Monday, January 15th (the first in the nation). Unlike primaries, caucuses require people to stay for the duration of the event, & they tend to cater towards the most passionate voters.
Explanation between the difference between a caucus & primary
To make matters worse, there will be life threatening temperatures during the Iowa caucuses, which will deter all but the most committed voters.
Republicans here were expecting a flurry of political activity in the closing days before Monday’s caucuses. Instead, they got a “life-threatening” blizzard that, along with bone-chilling temperatures, imperils voter turnout.
“Twenty below [zero] is cold,” said Will Rogers, a former chairman of the Polk County GOP who plans to caucus for former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley. “It will keep people home on caucus night.”
Rogers said he believes stay-inside temperatures will help former President Donald Trump, who has a highly committed voter base and has led by dozens of points in every major recent poll of the state.
Donald Trump’s campaign is being cautiously optimistic about their chances of victory (around 13 percentage points), although many analysts expect his margin of victory to be far higher.
Coupled with freezing temperatures, it would not be surprising if Donald Trump emerged with over half of the caucus vote by the time the caucuses close, shocking Never Trump conservatives & the media.
Many Never Trump pundits will probably blame the weather while praying Nikki Haley does better in New Hampshire.
Picture of New Hampshire borders with state seal on state. Image via Fry1989 on Wikipedia
New Hampshire: Nikki Haley’s Greatest Gamble‽
New Hampshire has its primary on January 23rd, & it is a semi closed primary, which means only registered members of the party can vote in their respective primary.
Note: Due to political shenanigans, Joe Biden is not listed in New Hampshire’s Democratic primary. However, Democrats will be unable to cross party lines & vote for Nikki Haley due it being semi-closed.
However, there is a caveat for undeclared voters as they can vote in the Republican primary in New Hampshire. The only problem is there might not be enough to secure victory for Nikki Haley.
The survey, published by the Saint Anselm College Survey Center Thursday and conducted between Jan. 8 and Jan. 9, found 31% of likely Republican primary voters would support Haley, compared to 45% who would back former President Donald Trump. That’s a mere one-point increase for each candidate since the same poll was conducted in December.
Nikki Haley can afford to lose in Iowa, as merely appearing in second place would be enough to secure her spot as the Never Trump candidate.
Unfortunately, she would need a victory in New Hampshire in order to prove to her GOP party that she can win against Donald Trump’s enthusiastic fans.
Although Chris Christie recently dropping out does help out Haley, however it might not be enough to secure victory.
With Mr. Christie out of the race, those 12 points don’t look so hard anymore. Mr. Christie has held around 10 percent of the vote in New Hampshire for months, and Ms. Haley and Mr. Trump would essentially be tied in New Hampshire if her support were hypothetically combined with Mr. Christie’s.
According to FiveThirtyEight on Wednesday night, Ms. Haley and Mr. Christie’s support added up to 41.5 percent of the vote in New Hampshire, to 42.4 percent for Mr. Trump.
Even if Nikki Haley hypothetically received all of Chris Christie’s supporters (a very unlikely scenario) she would still slightly trail behind Donald Trump.
As FiveThirtyEight realistically shows, Trump’s lead over Haley so far is significant.
FiveThirtyEight screen shot showing Trump leading, with Haley in second place right now.Image of Nevada with “Battle Born” banner on state. Image from Darwinek on Wikipedia.
Nevada: Trump Wins Due To Haley’s Blunder
Nevada is an odd case, as the state hosts both a caucus & a primary, & candidates can only appear on one or the other. Although Nevada’s Democratic & Republican primary will be held on February 6th, the GOP primary will not award any delegates, making the latter irrelevant.
Donald Trump’s campaign wisely chose to be listed in Nevada’s GOP caucus—in which he expects to secure most of the GOP’s support.
The Emerson College poll of likely Nevada GOP caucus voters found Trump leading with 73 percent. DeSantis took second place, but scored just single-digit support with 8 percent. […]
“With Nikki Haley opting to be named on the state primary ballot on Feb. 6 rather than the party caucus on Feb. 8, Trump does not have much competition on the ballot,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, in the report. […]
The Nevada GOP has pitched the caucus as “the only place” for presidential hopefuls to earn delegates to the Republican National Convention, which complicates things for Haley in the state.
It is still unclear why Haley chose not to compete with Donald Trump in the Nevada caucus, but either way she ends up losing this race by default.
Image of South Carolina with Palm Tree & moon on state picture. Image from Darwinek on Wikipedia.
South Carolina: Haley’s Last Stand
Nikki Haley’s home state (where she was Governor) Republican primary will be held on February 24th, which is almost a month later than the Democratic primary (latter will be held on February 3rd).
Unlike New Hampshire & Iowa, South Carolina is an open primary which means anyone from any party can vote in any upcoming primary, regardless of their prior party affiliation.
While an open primary would make it easier for Democrats & Independents to vote for Haley in order to stop Donald Trump, her views regarding the cause of America’s Civil War (past & present) may turn off potential moderates and progressives.
Nikki Haley has a history of omitting slavery as cause of American Civil War
Without the assistance of moderates, independents, & progressives, Nikki Haley will probably be unable to close the chasm between her & Donald Trump, the latter who boasts a commanding lead in her home state of South Carolina.
A new Emerson College Polling survey of South Carolina voters finds former President Donald Trump with a 29-point lead in the Republican Primary over former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, leading 54% to 25%. Seven percent of Republican Primary voters support Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, 5% support former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, and 3% support Vivek Ramaswamy. Six percent are undecided.
If Nikki Haley loses in South Carolina, then her presidential ambitions will be checkmated by Donald Trump, who could potentially secure his party’s nomination before Super Tuesday on March 5th.
Nikki Haley’s best option is for the Supreme Court of the United States 🇺🇸 to declare by judicial decree that Donald Trump is barred from being on the ballot across America.
Fortunately for her the robed masters in black will be hearing the case on February 8th, & should arrive at a decision before March 5th (& potentially before South Carolina votes on February 24th).
Unless the Supreme Court of the United States intervenes around early February, Donald Trump will likely secure the GOP nomination before March Madness begins.
However, if the robed masters in black ban Trump from appearing on the ballots, then Nikki Haley not only has a realistic shot of winning the GOP nomination, but also defeating Joe Biden in the general election.
Nikki Haley could defeat Joe Biden in general election
I originally posted this on my Mastodon account (which is @darnell for those of you within the Fediverse), but since I do not want to start a triple thread I decided to post the videos here.
Peter Zeihan explains why the Supreme Court of the United States 🇺🇸 decision is going to rile up the country (either Democrats or Republicans).
Next video talks about they the GOP due to Trump has to deal with more infighting than normal. Zeihan briefly also explained why Democrats choose charismatic candidates over deep policy politicians.
Peter Zeihan explains the difference between both parties & the various factions between them.
Peter Zeihan closes out with explaining the cranky, never satisfied “independents” (which I am also apart of), & why they are not sold on Trump.
Independents usually choose who is President, & right now the GOP is enraging Independent voters.
While this would give the world a collective sigh of relief (at least amongst the progressive masses), being desperate, Donald Trump might exercise his remaining constitutional option & pressure Congress to overturn the ban.
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.
If the courts deny the Orange Authoritarian a path to the White House (& ultimately away from jail), Trump will probably lead a mass MAGA (Make America Great Again) protest to the capital as a last-ditch effort to pressure Congress to undo the binding from the robed masters in black.
Since most of the Republican Party is too scared to defy Trump’s will (as Donald’s followers view the false Orange Messiah as a gift from God), Trump may pressure the GOP to avoid making deals with the Democrats & force the United States government to shut down.
Leveraging his massive influence, Trump could threaten his followers to agree to a national boycott on November 5th’s pending election, which would scare the Republican Party into submission.
Satire: Donald Trump depicted as God Emperor from Warhammer (discovered via @RohitIndiran on X/Twitter)
Moves & Counter Moves
So how can the United States 🇺🇸 avoid this scenario if the Supreme Court decides Donald Trump is unworthy to hold office again‽
To put it bluntly, a few brave Congressional Republicans will have to be willing to fall on their political sword, forgo a future with the GOP, cross party lines & vote to keep the government open with the Democrats.
This might even involve choosing a new Speaker of the House if Congressman Mike Johnson (the current Speaker) kisses Trump’s ring & decides to embrace chaos in the capital (note: the new GOP rules allow a no-confidence vote to be initiated by a single congressperson).
In exchange for a few brave Republicans risking the wrath of the Orange Authoritarian, Democrats might want to consider granting them lead positions in committees of their choice and having the GOP defectors desired bills reach the floor faster (minus the regular gridlock).
An Ounce Of Prevention Is Worth A Pound Of Cure
Democrats would be wise to have these discussions now with select GOP colleagues (in private, of course) as a countermeasure just in case Trump attempts to bully Republicans into shutting down the government.
Although Donald Trump may lack intelligence compared to previous Presidents, he is far more shameless & crafty than what most media outlets give him credit for.
Checkmating Trump now would benefit the country later, as both parties would finally be able to eventually return to the job of crafting laws to make America great without the theatrics from The Shameless One.
