What if Wednesday

 

The Asemic Map of Collapsing Empires

 

Men make their own history, but they do not make it as they please; they do not make it under self-selected circumstances, but under circumstances existing already, given and transmitted from the past. The tradition of all dead generations weighs like a nightmare on the brains of the living. And just as they seem to be occupied with revolutionizing themselves and things, creating something that did not exist before, precisely in such epochs of revolutionary crisis they anxiously conjure up the spirits of the past to their service, borrowing from them names, battle slogans, and costumes in order to present this new scene in world history in time-honoured disguise and borrowed language.

From: Karl Marx‘s essay, The Eighteenth Brumaire of Louis Bonaparte

 

Throughout history, many things can change; language, technology, architecture, geopolitical boundaries and economic systems, the arts, and fashion; acquired knowledge about the world expands by way of scientific discovery and geographic exploration.  Even with all this change, and the impact it has on cultural mores, what does not alter is the range of emotions that govern our choices and behaviour. As a consequence, stories disguised as true reports and newsworthy information enters the public consciousness; in effect, Medieval folk-beliefs and urban legends still spread and are accepted – even though we now have access to incredible resources and a remarkable means of communicating on a global scale, thanks to the internet. Vulnerable people are still susceptible to propaganda, and the hoodwinkery of advertisement techniques.

 

 

 

 

The steadfastness of human behaviour means new terminology covers group behaviour of social action in a wide range of circumstances, that has occurred in the past. Looking at historical records, and going beyond cultural and historical differences, and patterns emerge. One example is how complex societies grow in geopolitical organizations that expand over immense geographic area, with huge populations. These countries expanded into empires, that based on the technology of the time covered large portions of the globe. Eventually, the technology allowed for empires to become global, spreading across oceans and acquiring control of portions of more than one continent. The Spanish and British Empires, and the Soviet Union, The United States of America, and The People’s Republic of China are all examples of global empires. The first three have collapsed. The United States is in decline, while China is rising in global reach through military and trade. 

 

 

The Seven Stages of Collapsing Empires 

 

The Spanish Empire completed all seven stages between 1590 and 1670

The British Empire completed them between 1914 and 1954.

The Soviet Union completed them between 1945 and 1991.

 

 

The seven-stage pattern is identical across all three empires:

Stage 1 – Military Over-extension

Stage 2 – Currency Debasement ~ value of currency falls 

Stage 3 – Debt Spiral ~ more wealth leaves the country than is being taken in, and the government can not sustain itself

Stage 4 – Loss of Productive Capacity ~ production standard lower and amount of production shrinks

Stage 5 – Social Decay ~ quality of life diminishes, employment is non-existent, or wages do not reflect the worker’s effort, and as a consequence physical and mental life decline

Stage 6 – Loss of Reserve Currency Status ~ currency’s value shrinks

Stage 7 – Collapse ~ the currency held in other countries come home, as does the military, debts come due, and government services grind to halt, the more self-sufficient regions seek independence, and internal strife grows

As you can see, the United States is currently at Stage 5, with Stage 6 approaching is on the horizon. China’s yuan is being accepted in trade negotiations, and is beginning to be accepted in transactions by some smaller businesses and everyday citizens in some countries. The American bond market has had some shakes and is tightly balancing.  

What If Scenario: In order to avoid/moderate the approaching collapse, there must be motivation for radical positive social reform, followed by intense efforts to rebuild, but this is only possible within regional areas of the original empire. Those regions must have a strong economic base, and demographically inclined towards positive social reform. If not, then those regions may achieve independence, but lack stability.

 

 

*** The Big What-If is whether the collapse is very sudden and dramatic, or whether the final transition limps along, as the empire becomes toothless, and the country goes into feeble decline.