"I'll gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today."The contract is dead and we've killed it. Wimpy borrowed more than he could repay and nobody is willing to hold him to his word. This is already having far reaching effects on the capital markets and it's just beginning.
When an investor decides where to invest their money, they have multiple places to invest. Maybe it's into mortgage debt, maybe it's into bonds, or maybe stocks. One thing that all these mechanisms have in common is that they are entered into beforehand with a contract that states what the risks and rewards are. If one party tries to violate the contract then the courts are supposed to hold them to it.
Bonds are typically seen as the safest investment. Bonds will guarrantee a particular rate of return. The rate is set in an auction based on how many people want to buy in. The more people that want the bond, the lower the rate. The bond issuer is basically going to market saying,"Everyone wants my bonds, why should I pay you a high return, when somebody else will buy my bond for a lower return." Conversely, if nobody wants a bond then the bond issuer has to offer a higher rate of return. "I'm good for it, I swear. Sure I'll have to borrow more next month just to keep the doors open, but if I do then I'll pay you back plus a vig." Nobody wants that investment unless there is significant upside.
Because so many people want it, a bond usually has a lower return on investment (or yield). It may be, say, 3%/year over 5 years. After compounding interest, that might work out to roughly a 16% return on investment, which means $100 today could be worth $116 in 5 years. That's not great, but if it's a sure thing then a lot of people will be interested.
The problem we have right now is that bond holders have been betrayed repeatedly over the last several years, which has left them in a position where they must now invest based on what is politically expedient rather than what offers them the best balance of risk/reward. Or put another way, there is a new risk that must be accounted for in the risk/reward decision: political risk that governments may ignore legal contracts.
Let's start with General Motors. Many bond holders of GM held secured debt, which means that in the event of a bankruptcy they get their money first, then the unsecured creditors. This is a safety feature meant to make the bond more attractive. Otherwise, why would anybody want to loan money to a struggling automaker? Unfortunately, during the financial crisis in late 2008 and early 2009, GM was allowed to go through a Chapter 11 reorganization while sending their bond holders to the back of the line in violation of GM's contractual obligations. Bond holders received less than 30 cents on the dollar for their investments in old GM, while the government and unions were granted enormous amounts of stock in the new GM. The result was that anybody who had secured GM bonds, including many of our 401k's lost a TREMENDOUS amount of money in violation of standard bankruptcy practice and the bond contracts GM had made.
Fast forward to 2011. Greece had borrowed more money than they could ever hope to repay. Rather than defaulting and letting the legal repercussions of a default kick in (far higher costs of borrowing in the future), the bond holders were strong armed into accepting less than 50 cents on the dollar for their bonds. Once again, bond holders had a legal contract with the government of Greece and they were cheated out of their recourse under an agreement that they legally entered into.
The result of these actions, and many other related violations of contract law, is that no person can feel safe in his or her investments. Why buy a GM secured bond if you'll be treated like an unsecured creditor when the chips are down? Why invest in Greek debt when they won't pay you back when the bill comes due.
But the bond is supposed to be the safest investment there is! If the contract that backs a debt can not be enforced for political reasons, then the only investment that can be trusted is one that is would never be allowed, for political reasons, to default, which leads us to the headline of that day ...
French bonds were recently sold for a small NEGATIVE yield. This is unheard of. That means that so many investors were scared of losing their investments that they all piled onto a bond sale yielding them nothing just to be able to avoid losing what they have. They are hoping that France, as an enormous economy, will have no political choice but to honor their contracts.
These low yields are not good news for each of us if we would like to do the frugal thing and save for retirement. There is a rule in investing, called the rule of 72. You take 72 and divide it by the annual return on an investment and that is how many years it will take to double your initial investment. It's the only hope most of us have of retiring. If you can earn 10% then you're doubling your principle every 7 years. So you may double it 3-4 times during your career. If you invest at 3% that means it's going to take 24 years to double $100 invested today. A long time, but you'd still have significantly more than you started with when you retire. But right now you can't even get a 3% yield. In France they are accepting 0% yield, meaning you would NEVER increase your $100 even a single dollar (or Euro as the case is there).
So unless you're planning on inventing a pet rock or similar million dollar idea, you better hope the markets get on track or you'll be working until you die. The only way the markets are going to get on track is for governments and citizens to start honoring their obligations to each other, because otherwise you're better off burying your retirement in a tin can in the back yard. Sorry for the doom and gloom. Have a nice day. :-)