Monthly Archives: December 2017

JC’s (un)motivated reasoning

Posted on December 28, 2017 by | 315 comments

by Judith Curry

“I think open explorations of the ideological assumptions scientists bring into policy debates are not only welcome but often necessary for having productive conversations.” – Aaron Huertas

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315 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

Reply to Patrick Brown’s response to comments on his Nature article

Posted on December 24, 2017 by | 286 comments

by Nic Lewis

My reply to Patrick Brown’s response to my my comments on his Nature article.

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286 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Forgone benefits of disruption to nuclear power since late-1960’s

Posted on December 21, 2017 by | 352 comments

by Peter Lang

Could the costs of nuclear power have been 10% of what they are if not for the disruption?

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352 Comments

Posted in Energy

Greater future global warming (still) predicted from Earth’s recent energy budget

Posted on December 21, 2017 by | 69 comments

by Patrick Brown

A response to Nic Lewis’ post A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought.

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69 Comments

Posted in Sensitivity & feedbacks

Long-range predictability of seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity

Posted on December 20, 2017 by | 14 comments

by Jim Johnstone and Judith Curry

Climate Forecast Applications Network (CFAN) has identified new early precursors for seasonal Atlantic hurricane activity that involve systematic, repeating interactions among ENSO, stratospheric circulations and regional North Atlantic processes.

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14 Comments

Posted in Hurricanes

Brown and Caldeira: A closer look shows global warming will not be greater than we thought

Posted on December 15, 2017 by | 245 comments

by Nic Lewis

A critique of a recent paper by Brown and Caldeira published in Nature that predicted greater than expected global warming.

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245 Comments

Posted in climate models, Sensitivity & feedbacks

The cost of displacing fossil fuels: some evidence from Texas

Posted on December 14, 2017 by | 100 comments

by Peter Hartley

Although technological progress can alter the relative costs of different energy sources, depletion inevitably must raise the costs of fossil fuels leading to their displacement by alternative energy sources. What energy technology will likely be used when fossil fuels are no longer dominant? More importantly, what will be the cost of that alternative “backstop” energy supply?

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100 Comments

Posted in Energy

Is climate change the culprit causing California’s wildfires?

Posted on December 13, 2017 by | 107 comments

by Larry Kummer

We’re told that climate change caused or intensified California’s wildfires — and that such fires are getting worse. As usual for such scary stories, these claims are only weakly supported by science — except for the ones that are outright fabrications.

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107 Comments

Posted in Causation, Climate change impacts

Girls rule(s)

Posted on December 10, 2017 by | 152 comments

by Judith Curry

The #MeToo movement is spawning considerable reflection in academia.  Here are some reflections and advice from a senior female scientist (moi) who came up through the academic system during the bad old days of the 1970’s and 1980’s, and who has mentored many young female scientists as they navigate the professional world of academia.

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152 Comments

Posted in Sociology of science

The Oroville Dam 2017 Spillway Incident – Possible Causes and Solutions

Posted on December 9, 2017 by | 47 comments

by Telis Koskinas

On February 2017, Oroville Dam gained worldwide attention when its main spillway suddenly failed, seemingly without precedent, under natural operating conditions.

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47 Comments

Posted in Adaptation, Extreme events

Nature Unbound VI – Centennial to millennial solar cycles

Posted on December 2, 2017 by | 129 comments

by Javier

Summary: Holocene climate has been affected in different periods by several centennial to millennial solar cycles. The ~ 1000-year Eddy solar cycle seems to have dominated Holocene climate variability between 11,500-4,000 years BP, and in the last two millennia, where it defines the Roman, Medieval, and Modern warm periods. The ~ 208-year de Vries solar cycle displays strong modulation by the ~ 2400-year Bray solar cycle, both in its cosmogenic isotope signature and in its climatic effects. The Centennial, and Pentadecadal solar cycles are observable in the last 400-year sunspot record, and they are responsible for the present extended solar minimum that started in 2008.

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129 Comments

Posted in Attribution, Solar