Strangers in the Field Part X: How'd We Do?

After last season's debacle, I made no NFL wagers during my pilgrimage to Las Vegas, so we can grade the bets now. It wasn't a great betting season, but at least we didn't lose any money. 

AAC Bets

Didn't have a great read on the AAC. Navy and Tulane probably deserved to get home, but the Midshipmen and Green Wave won the close ones (combined 10-0 in one-score games). Thankfully, Rice, one of my biggest bets, cashed. 

ACC Bets

I had better luck in the ACC, but my biggest bet of the year (Virginia Tech), didn't come close to getting there. The Hokies led at the half in nearly all their conference games in 2024 and I figured that would portend a solid season in 2025. It did not. Also, while I did not wager for or against Duke, Manny Diaz has made a lifelong enemy. Duke lost to teams I had the under on (Connecticut, Illinois, and Tulane) and had no trouble handling teams I bet the over on (Cal and NC State). 

Big 10 Bets

Another league I did not have a good read on. I will say, I missed a lot of these by one win (Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, and Oregon). The Maryland loss was particularly painful as the Terrapins began the season 4-0 and had a 20-0 lead in the second half of their fifth game. They lost that one en route to an eight game losing streak. It totally made sense to bring Mike Locksley back. 

Big 12 Bets

You're probably asking, where are the good bets? I assure you, they are coming. I whiffed really bad predicting a rebound for Oklahoma State. 

Conference USA Bets

Despite the 3-3 record, this was somewhat profitable, since I bet pretty big on Sam Houston State having a rough year. Four FBS teams lost to FCS teams in 2025. And I bet the over on two of them. One was Middle Tennessee. See if you can guess the other. 

Independent Bets

If you told me the Huskies were going to lose to both Delaware and Rice, I would have guaranteed this was a winner. Of course, if you told me the Huskies would beat both Boston College and Duke, I would have guaranteed it was a loser. 

MAC Bets

Came close to sweeping the rust belt, but Eastern Michigan lost to an FCS team. The double dip dumpster dive on Kent State was profitable and an easy pair of winners. I've bitched a lot (and will continue to do so) about the relative bad luck I had this season, but its also important to acknowledge good fortune. Ball State was not good in 2025, but the Cardinals won all their one score games (3-0) to barely get home. 

Mountain West Bets

Had a good read on the Mountain West and with some better luck, we could have swept this one as well. UNLV was playing with fire all season (5-1 in one score games) while Air Force finished 1-3 in one-score games and suffered a quarterback injury late in the season. 

SEC Bets

This was a low volume, but profitable group of bets. Florida and South Carolina hit the under with ease while Kentucky and Missouri hit and missed by one game respectively. 

Sun Belt Bets

Came close to sweeping the Sun Belt and arguably should have. Arkansas State won six games and three of them came by exactly one point. 

Miscellaneous Bets

None of these got home, but I hope you can understand the logic. I did not trust Auburn to get over their win total, but I figured they had decent upside in case they got good quarterback play. They did not. Iowa had both Indiana and Oregon on the ropes in Iowa City. All four of their losses came by five points or less, so they were closer to making the playoff than it might appear. Utah lost a tight game to BYU to miss out on the Big 12 Championship Game. They were probably not beating Texas Tech anyway though. UTSA played well at home, but they were never in contention to win the AAC which they would have had to do to make the playoff. Washington struggled on the road, but I thought they might have the upside to qualify for the playoff if they could beat Ohio State and Oregon at home. They could not. The reckless parlay did not go well. Colorado was in the game with Georgia Tech, but ultimately lost by a touchdown while Northwestern was blown out by Tulane. 

Money Wagered: $2470

Money Won: $2480.60

ROI: 0.4%

We technically won money, but it was mostly a break even season. Overall, we were 26-23 on win totals, but a somewhat unlucky 6-10 on wagers within one win. On the bright side, we had some negative variance and still came out (slightly) ahead. 

Thanks for reading the blog this year. We will return with out YPP and APR write ups for each conference starting on the first Thursday after the national championship game. See you then. 

The Magnificnet Seven: Bowl Season

I thought we might sweep Championship Week, but Manny Diaz had other ideas. Hey, if we sweep bowl season, we'll finish .500 (lol). 

Last Week: 2-1

Overall: 47-54

Saluta to Vetarans Bowl @ Montgomery

Jacksonville State +3.5 Troy

These two Alabama teams have not played since 2001, Troy's first year in FBS. However, they routinely sparred when both were in the Gulf South (Division II) and Southland Conference (FCS, formerly I-AA). I think making this an annual rivalry game would be a good idea for both teams. But I digress. Both the Trojans and Gamecocks lost their respective conference title games, but the margins were quite different. Troy hung with James Madison for three quarters, but could not move the ball against the Dukes and let go of the rope in the fourth. Meanwhile, Troy fell behind Kennesaw State, but took the lead in the fourth quarter only to lose it on a last minute drive by the Owls. The handicap for this game is the rushing attack for the Gamecocks. If the Trojans can stop it, they stand a great shot at winning. But I don't think they can. The Trojans put the clamps on a few teams this season (Nicholls State, Louisiana-Monroe, Arkansas State, and Southern Miss), but teams with elite run threats at quarterback (James Madison, Old Dominion, and Texas State) all rushed for over 300 yards against the Trojans. I expect Jacksonville State to take similar action as they seek their second ever bowl win. 

68 Ventures Bowl @ Mobile

Delaware +3.5 Louisiana-Lafayette

Credit Michael Desormeaux for keeping the Ragin' Cajuns engaged after a 2-6 start to the 2025 season. They could have packed it in and prepared for 2026, but they won their final four games to eke out bowl eligibility. However, the last three came by a combined ten points, so they were a bit fortunate to get back to the postseason. In fact, if we exclude their victory against an FCS opponent (McNeese State), the Ragin' Cajuns were outscored by 59 points on the season. Should they be laying more than a field goal against an FBS call up that figures to be highly motivated playing in their first ever bowl game? The Blue Hens had an uneven debut in FBS, beating bowl bound teams Connecticut, Florida International, and Louisiana Tech, but also losing to the worst team in Conference USA, Sam Houston State. The Blue Hens were also outscored by their opponents, but that is mostly due to their poor performance against the two power conference teams they faced (Colorado and Wake Forest). If we back out those two games, as well as their victory against Delaware State (FCS), the Blue Hens actually outscored their non-power FBS opponents. In the past decade, FBS call ups playing in their first bowl game are 6-3 outright. These teams are pretty evenly matched, so I will back the one catching more than a field goal. 

Xbox Bowl @ Frisco

Missouri State +1.5 Arkansas State

Of the two FBS call-ups in Conference USA, I was most skeptical of Missouri State. The Bears don't have the winning pedigree Delaware does at the FCS level. However, one year into FBS life, Missouri State was the better team. The Bears had an inauspicious welcome to FBS in the LA Coliseum against Southern Cal, but won seven of their next nine games before a two-game skid to close the season took some of the shine off their debut. As with Delaware, the Bears should be highly motivated to get their first bowl win. Meanwhile, Arkansas State once again did it with smoke and mirrors. The Red Wolves won three Sun Belt games by exactly one point to eke out bowl eligibility. This team is not good and should not be laying points, even against a former FCS team.  

College Football Playoff

Miami +3.5 Texas A&M

Miami's selection, or perhaps more accurately, Notre Dame's exclusion was one of the bigger stories of this year's selection show. The Hurricanes beat the Irish in the season opener, but stumbled a few times in ACC play, and thanks to some ill conceived tiebreakers, failed to qualify for the conference title game. Like Miami, Texas A&M also defeated Notre Dame, albeit in South Bend. That was a great victory for the Aggies, but was the only impressive one they would notch on the season. One of the consequences of conference expansion is that some years, a team will luck into an easy league schedule (think Indiana last season). And that is exactly what happened to Texas A&M. In the SEC, six teams finished with losing regular season records (Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi State, and South Carolina). The Aggies played five of them. In fact, they did not face an SEC team with a winning conference record until the regular season finale. Cumulatively, their eight SEC opponents finished with an 18-46 league record! The Aggies can only play the teams on their schedule, but they have faced one playoff caliber team since the season's second week, and they lost it. Believe me, I take no pleasure in backing Mario Cristobal. The Aggies definitely enter with the head coaching advantage, but I think the Hurricanes have a better roster. I'll take the three and a half points. 

GameAbove Sports Bowl @ Detroit

Central Michigan +10.5 Northwestern

An underdog's best friend, especially a double digit underdog, is a running clock. And both teams in this game should keep the clock running. Central Michigan runs on 69% (nice) of their offensive snaps, while Northwestern runs on 55% of theirs. At minimum, three out of every five plays in this game will be on the ground. The total reflects this as it currently sits at 43.5, implying a roughly 27-17 Northwestern victory. The Wildcats scored 28 or more points three times this season: against a bad FCS team (Western Illinois), a bad FBS team (Louisiana-Monroe), and a bad Big 10 team (Minnesota). All those games also came at home. I think they will be in somewhat hostile territory as they travel to MAC country to take on the Chippewas. I don't think Northwestern can score four touchdowns, so as long as Central Michigan can score in the high teens, they should be able to cover this big number. 

Rate Bowl @ Phoenix

New Mexico +3.5 Minnesota

For any aspiring t-shirt salesmen in the greater Phoenix area, I have a simple design for you. Eck Vs Fleck. And then get some AI tool to reimagine the opposing head coaches in various designs throughout history (gladiators, samurais, boxers, etc.). You're welcome. When it comes to the actual product on the field, New Mexico is in a bowl game for the first time in nearly a decade and their first non-New Mexico Bowl trip since 2004. In addition, if the Lobos win and things break right in front of them, they could enter the AP Poll for the first time in school history. For a team that was expected to win roughly three or four games in 2025, that's a pretty good season. I'm surprised Jason Eck is still in Albuquerque, but a power conference team's loss is New Mexico's gain. While a bowl game is big news for the Lobos, it has become old hat for the Gophers. Excluding the 2020 Covid season, this is their seventh consecutive bowl game under PJ Fleck. The Golden Gophers are 6-0 in bowl games under Fleck, but despite their winning Big 10 conference record, this is one of his worst teams at Minnesota. The Gophers were outgained by nearly one and a half yards per play by their Big 10 opponents and went 0-5 away from home this season, losing by an average of nearly 25 points per game. New Mexico has the geographic and the motivation advantage. Back the Lobos catching more than a field goal. 

ReliaQuest Bowl @ Tampa

Iowa +5.5 Vanderbilt

2025 has been a season for the ages for Vanderbilt. The Commodores won ten games, finished with a winning SEC record for the first time since 2012, may have the eventual Heisman winner, and could have qualified for the College Football Playoff if some more teams lost some more games (amazing analysis, I know). That being said, Iowa has the potential to drag the Commodores to hell. The Hawkeyes play their usual brand of great defense and just enough offense to harass, but not beat the better teams on the schedule. Iowa lost four games this season, with each defeat coming by five points or less, including two to a pair of College Football Playoff participants (Indiana and Oregon). Both teams play slow and run the ball which plays to the underdog's advantage. I like Iowa to keep this one close. 

The Magnificent Seven: Week XV

Another regular season has come and gone. We march in to Championship Weekend and (hopefully) some better picks. 

Last Week: 3-4

Overall: 45-53

Texas Tech -12.5 BYU @ Arlington

A few years ago, I posted about how one goes about spotting a championship game blowout. The long and short of it is, when a championship game matches up one team that was ranked in the preseason AP Poll and another that was not, back the team that was ranked in the preseason. The preseason AP Poll is far from perfect, but it is a decent proxy for talent and Texas Tech certainly has it. The Red Raiders were only ranked 23rd in the preseason AP Poll, but BYU was nowhere to be found. In the thirty plus year history of championship games, teams that were ranked in the preseason AP Poll are an outstanding 38-4 straight up when they face off against teams that were unranked in the preseason AP Poll. BYU also had some distractions around the program with Kalani Sitake being given serious consideration for the Penn State job. These teams played a month ago in Lubbock with Texas Tech winning easily. I see no reason to expect anything different on Saturday. 

Georgia -2.5 Alabama @ Atlanta

Earlier this year, I posted about underwater conference championship game participants. That is, teams that qualified for their conference championship game despite being outgained on a yards per play basis by their conference opponents. Despite their glistening 7-1 conference record, Alabama fits that description this year, as they were slightly outgained by their SEC foes. 17 teams have advanced to their conference championship game despite being underwater. They went a combined 2-15 in those title games (3-13-1 ATS). I know Georgia has had trouble with Alabama under Kirby Smart, but I think they exorcise those demons on Saturday afternoon and if the margin is large enough, potentially keep Alabama out of the College Football Playoff. 

Virginia -3.5 Duke @ Charlotte

This will probably not surprise you, but Duke also finished underwater in ACC play, yet will somehow play for the conference title on Saturday night. Hopefully this inspires some adjustments to the conference tiebreaker procedures so we are not forced to endure this mediocrity in championship games going forward. Like Texas Tech and BYU, these two teams played fairly recently (three weeks ago), with Virginia winning handily and (we thought) ending Duke's chances at stealing an ACC title. Duke has one of the worst defenses of any power conference team while Virginia was low-key quite good on defense (second in the ACC in yards allowed per play). I expect the Cavaliers to win handily and end Duke's charmed run.