Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Nord Stream case: bravo to Poland, shame on Italy

Two reports from Deutsche Welle:

"Nord Stream: Poland blocks extradition of suspect to Germany

Saim Dušan Inayatullah with dpa, Reuters, 

A Polish court on Friday declined to extradite to Germany a Ukrainian suspected of involvement in sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines.

The Warsaw District Court also ordered his immediate release. The decision may be subject to appeal.

A series of underwater explosions damaged the Nord Stream pipelines in September 2022, seven months after Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine.

"The Polish court does not have any evidence in this case, as the German side only sent very general information," judge Dariusz Lubowski was cited by Poland's PAP news agency as saying.

The judge also argued that the alleged sabotage constituted a "military operation" that was "not illegal." He argued that the suspect allegedly acted on behalf of Kyiv, meaning "only the Ukrainian state can bear responsibility for this act."

He also said that Germany did not have jurisdiction over the case as it occurred in international waters.

Prime Minister Donald Tusk hailed the decision in a post on X.

"Polish court denied extradition to Germany of a Ukrainian national suspected of blowing up North Stream 2 and released him from custody. And rightly so," Tusk said.

"The case is closed."

The man's defense lawyer, Tymoteusz Paprocki, told journalists in Warsaw that the ruling sent a "signal to Germany" and showed that the law should not be "instrumentalized for the sake of greater interests."...

Before the ruling, his defense lawyer had said that his client planned to plead not guilty if brought to trial.

He questioned whether the destruction of Russian property by Ukrainians could be considered a criminal matter in light of Moscow's invasion of its neighbor...

Earlier this month, Prime Minister Donald Tusk argued against handing over the suspect, suggesting it was not in Poland's national interest.

"The problem with North Stream 2 is not that it was blown up. The problem is that it was built," Tusk said in a post on X..."

***

"Italy approves Nord Stream suspect's Germany extradition

Mark Hallam with dpa, Reuters, 

Italy's highest court has upheld a lower court verdict approving the extradition of the suspected ringleader of the Nord Stream gas pipeline sabotage to Germany. The Ukrainian national's lawyer announced the news

Italy's Supreme Court of Cassation upheld a lower court verdict that a Ukrainian national wanted in Germany on suspicion of sabotaging the Nord Stream gas pipelines can be extradited. 

The suspect's lawyer announced the decision on Wednesday evening. 

The 49-year-old, identified as Serhiy K., has been in pre-trial detention since the summer and his lawyer said on October 31 that he had started a hunger strike in protest

He's wanted in Germany on suspicion of helping to organize and plan the sabotage, on charges of causing an explosion and of sabotage targeting key infrastructure. The defendant denies the charges.

The man is likely to be handed over to German police in Italy and then flown to Germany..."

For Russia, Donetsk region is just gateway

From AP:

"Ukraine’s Donetsk region seen as Russia’s gateway, not the ultimate prize in war

Kremlin delights in the damage Russian drones inflict on Europe

From the Dialog, Oct 6:

"Europe under hybrid attack: Putin continues to launch drones in the EU after pledging "no more" 

Russian drones continued to terrorize Europe after Russian dictator Vladimir Putin's speech at Valdai and his promises not to do so again.

Several European airports suspended operations again due to "unknown" drones appearing in German and Norwegian airspace. This occurred just days after Russian dictator Vladimir Putin declared at the Valdai Conference that he would "no longer" send drones to Europe...

Europe is reluctant to blame Moscow for what's happening, not wanting to escalate the situation, but Russia's involvement is obvious...

CNN notes: "Putin, without firing a single shot, managed to convey the essence of the war in Ukraine to millions of Europeans." The article emphasizes that ambiguity and the lack of clear evidence are classic signs of hybrid attacks.

The Kremlin, for its part, denies all accusations. Putin's press secretary, Dmitry Peskov, called the situation "strange," but added, "There are no grounds to blame Russia for this."  

Putin himself, at the Valdai Club plenary session on Thursday, said with a smirk, "We will no longer send drones to France, or Denmark... or Copenhagen... Where else can they fly?"  

Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, for his part, openly acknowledged Russia's involvement in the incidents and explained the reasons. "The main thing is for narrow-minded Europeans to experience firsthand the danger of war, so that they fear and tremble, like dumb animals in a herd being driven to the slaughterhouse," he said." 

For Merkel, Eastern Europe is not "real" Europe and can be fed to Russia

From Deutsche Welle / Fakti:

"Merkel and her failed policy towards Russia

In light of such a policy, it seems logical that at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, Merkel blocked the accession of Georgia and Ukraine to the Alliance - in alliance with former French President Nicolas Sarkozy. The appeasement of Russia according to Angela Merkel's model did not work. The former German Chancellor stubbornly refuses to admit the failure of her policy towards Putin

Konstantin Eggert, Oct 9, 2025 05:00

Angela Merkel probably did not intend to cause a scandal. In an interview with the left-wing Hungarian portal Partizàn, the former German Chancellor was simply promoting her memoirs. She decided to talk about her attempts to prevent a full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, but dropped a media bombshell.

Merkel's interview and the delight of Z-bloggers

"In June 2021, I felt that Putin no longer took the Minsk agreements seriously, and that is why I wanted to create a new format in which we could talk directly with Putin on behalf of the European Union (EU)," Merkel said in the interview. However, the plan failed. "Some did not support it. First of all, these were the Baltic countries, but Poland was also against it. In any case, the new format (of negotiations with Russia – ed. note) did not materialize. I left my post and then Putin's aggression began," summarizes the former German Chancellor.

And although "after that" does not necessarily mean "as a result", it was this logical chain that was perceived by many as shifting some of the responsibility for the Russian invasion...

In the Baltic capitals and Warsaw, Merkel's words caused the expected storm of indignation. After all, it was the Lithuanians and Poles who, since the Russian attack on Georgia in 2008, had been warning that Russia would not stop there.

Russian propaganda broadcasts and Z-channels on Telegram also exploded, but with joy. According to them, the former head of government of the most populous country in the EU had sided with them and confirmed that the "patented Russophobes" from the Baltic states and Poland were to blame for the continent's current problems. It was they who had hindered the "true Europeans" to establish relations with the great eastern neighbor, to hand over to "us", that is, to Russia, control over all these "Ukrainians" and "Moldovan" and to receive in return cheap gas and a large market for European industrial production.

What I understood when I had dinner with Merkel

In the distant summer of 2008, I had the opportunity to talk to Merkel personally during an informal and rather long dinner. Without going into details about the private conversation, I will share my main impression: Angela Merkel has consciously and long ago decided to follow a line of de facto appeasement of the Putin regime.

Unlike her predecessor Gerhard Schröder, whom the Kremlin easily brought under control with flattery and the post in "Nord Stream", Merkel has hardly received any personal benefit from this policy. The former Chancellor believed and apparently still believes that she acted in the interests of Germany and that same "real" Europe, which begins west of the border between Poland and the Federal Republic of Germany.

The calculations were as follows: Russia may not become and most likely will not become a democracy, but the purely material benefits of dependence on oil and gas will be so significant for it that the Kremlin will necessarily choose "peace and stability". And if this requires (unofficially, of course) agreement with Moscow's political dominance in the so-called "post-Soviet space", then this would generally be an acceptable price.

The interview with Merkel – a gift for Putin, AfD and the communists

In light of such a policy, it seems logical that at the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, Merkel blocked the accession of Georgia and Ukraine to the Alliance - in alliance with former French President Nicolas Sarkozy. It was this decision that became a real, not a fictional, root cause of Russian aggression against both countries.

Merkel's interview for the Hungarian portal is a gift not only for Russian propaganda, but also for the European far right and far left. Both - although for different reasons - hate Merkel. For them, she is a symbol of – – – – globalism, – – – the dictates of the EU, – – – German revanchism, – – the policy of open borders, – everyone will find something to criticize her for. But the French and Czech communists, Fico, Orban and the "Alternative for Germany" (AfD) will now say: "If Merkel also thinks that not only Putin is to blame for the war, then it turns out that we are right". Therefore, support for Ukraine must be stopped and peace must be negotiated at all costs (i.e. at the expense of the same Ukraine).

Joseph Beck, who served as Poland's foreign minister in the 1930s, said the following: "Peace, like almost everything in life, has a price - high, but completely determinable". Peace according to Merkel's model did not come true. It is a pity that she herself - at least for now - is not ready to admit it. Ukraine is paying the price for her failed policy today."

Merkel ripped after blaming Baltic countries and Poland for Putin's aggression

From LRT:

"‘Missed opportunity to be quiet’: Merkel's interview sparks backlash in Lithuania

LRT.lt 2025.10.07

Baltic officials responded in uproar over what they saw as Angela Merkel, the former German leader, blaming the three countries and Poland for blocking Europe’s contacts with the Kremlin that partly led to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

"In June 2021, I felt that Putin was no longer taking the Minsk Agreement seriously," she said in reference to the failed peace talks that froze the conflict between Kyiv and Russian-led separatists in the country’s east.

Merkel said that the refusal by the Baltic states and Poland to permit direct talks with the Kremlin following the 2014 aggression against Ukraine led, in part, to Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

"That's why I wanted a new format where we could speak directly with Putin as the European Union," she said, adding that "not everyone supported this, above all the Baltic states, but Poland was also against it". They were "afraid", she said, that there would be no collective agreement among EU states on how to tackle Russia.

​The interview with the Hungarian media outlet, Partizan, sparked backlash in the Baltic states and Poland.

Linas Linkevicius, the Lithuanian foreign minister at the time, said Merkel "missed an opportunity to be quiet".

In a post on Facebook, the current ambassador to Sweden said "there are certain types of people – and politicians are also people – who are never wrong”, adding that Merkel’s opposition to granting a NATO membership plan to Georgia and Ukraine in 2008 enabled the Kremlin’s aggression.

“Russia felt free to act as if it had been given permission to do whatever it wanted in its own ‘backyard’. It was one of many wake-up calls that the West simply ignored,” he said.

“The chancellor’s responsibility for those historical mistakes has not diminished in the slightest – especially when, recklessly and without justification, she blames those who at least tried to stop those errors,” said Linkevičius.

“Many who remember it all are still alive,” he added.

According to Gabrielius Landsbergis, Lithuania’s former foreign minister, Merkel’s remarks were “a case of inverted logic”, when someone attempts to “find someone else to blame” for their mistakes.

Drawing on his experience of dealing with the former German chancellor, Landsbergis recalled when Lithuania was plunged into a migration crisis after the Minsk regime channeled thousands of migrants toward the Baltics and Poland in response to EU sanctions.

At the time, Lithuania requested greater EU funding and sanctions against Belarus. However, Merkel decided to negotiate directly with the authoritarian Belarusian president, Alexander Lukashenko, behind Lithuania’s back, Landsbergis said.

“Without informing us, she spoke with Lukashenko and began, on her own initiative, to form some kind of agreement,” the former foreign minister said. “I remember saying that if Lithuania is under attack, then perhaps such contacts should first be coordinated with us? But it didn’t seem to make any impression on her.”

According to Landsbergis, Merkel greatly overestimated her influence over Putin.

“The appeasement strategy didn’t work in 1938, and it doesn’t work now,” he said, drawing a parallel with the Second World War..."

*** 

Landsbergis also wrote in X: "Say what you want about Merkel's legacy, at least she finally admitted whose side she was on."

ISW: Russia dangles carrots in front of the Americans to make them betray Ukraine

From the Institute for the Study of War:

"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 5, 2025

Russian President Vladimir Putin continues attempts to deter the US from sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine by linking improvements in the US-Russian bilateral relationship to concessions from the United States on the war in Ukraine. Putin claimed in an interview published on October 5 that US provisions of Tomahawk missiles would “lead to the destruction” of the “emerging positive trend” in US-Russian relations – linking the prospect of improved US-Russian relations with limits on US support for Ukraine.[1] Putin is continuing to dangle the prospect of incentives that are unrelated to the war in Ukraine to extract concessions from the United States about the war in Ukraine. ISW continues to assess that Putin has been trying to facilitate US-Russian rapprochement, including by pressuring the Trump administration to engage in arms control talks, to secure Russia’s desired demands in Ukraine.[2] 

Putin has been promoting various rhetorical lines to try to deter the Trump administration from providing Ukraine with Tomahawk missiles. Putin threateningly warned the United States against selling Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine on October 2, claiming that American military personnel would have to directly participate in Ukrainian Tomahawk strikes.[3] Putin also claimed that such strikes would mark a “new stage of escalation” but would not change the battlefield situation. Putin made similar arguments when the United States was considering sending Ukraine ATACMS missiles, F-16 jets, and Abrams tanks. Putin appears to be trying different approaches – from threatening worsening bilateral relations to downplaying the missiles’ usefulness – to influence US decision-making. 

The Kremlin is trying to prevent the United States from providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine in order to retain the sanctuary that Russia enjoys in its rear. Ukrainian forces are able to conduct long-range drone strikes against a significant portion of Russia’s rear, but the payloads on these drones are limited and not suitable to destroy specialized objects. Ukraine’s ability to launch missile strikes deep into Russia’s rear with larger payloads would allow Ukraine to significantly damage – if not destroy – key military assets in Russia, such as the Shahed drone factory in Yelabuga, Republic of Tatarstan, or the Engels-2 Air Base in Saratov Oblast from which Russia sorties strategic bombers that fire air-launch cruise missiles at Ukraine. Russia has been able to significantly scale up its Shahed drone production by expanding the factory in Yelabuga, allowing Russia to launch increasingly large and more frequent long-range drone strikes against Ukraine. Russia’s nightly strike packages in September 2025 featured an average of 187 long-range drones (many of which are Shahed-type drones) per night, whereas similar strike packages in January 2025 only featured an average of 83 drones, for example. Russia notably started launching overnight strike packages that included over 500 drones more frequently in September 2025. ISW assesses that there are at least 1,945 Russian military objects within range of the 2,500-kilometer variant Tomahawk and at least 1,655 within range of the 1,600-kilometer variant. Ukraine likely can significantly degrade Russia’s frontline battlefield performance by targeting a vulnerable subset of rear support areas that sustain and support Russia’s frontline operations.[4] Ukraine has reportedly launched mass production of its new, domestically produced FP-5 Flamingo cruise missile with a 3,000-kilometer range and 1,150-kilogram warhead, but the system remains unproven, and Ukraine will need time to scale up production.[5]"

China helps Russia strike targets in Ukraine

From Reuters / Yahoo!News:

"China provides intelligence to Russia on Ukraine targets, Ukrainian intelligence says

Reuters

China is providing intelligence to Russia to enable Moscow to better launch missile strikes inside Ukraine, a senior Ukrainian intelligence official was quoted as saying on Saturday.

Oleh Alexandrov, an official with Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Agency, told the state Ukrinform news agency, that China was passing on satellite intelligence on targets, including those benefiting from foreign investment.

"There is evidence of a high level of cooperation between Russia and China in conducting satellite reconnaissance of the territory of Ukraine in order to identify and further explore strategic objects for targeting," Alexandrov told Ukrinform.

"As we have seen in recent months, these sites may belong to foreign investors."

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy and regional officials said a Russian missile attack in August struck a U.S.-owned appliance factory in the western Zakarpattia region, injuring 15 people.

Zelenskiy said in April that China was supplying weapons and gunpowder to Russia. He also said that his government had intelligence that China was producing weapons on Russian territory.

(Reporting by Ron Popeski; Editing by Alistair Bell)"

Good life creates trade union obsession with Gaza

From the Obozrevatel:

"When social security is too good, EU trade unions start worrying about Gaza's rights

Olexander Kirsch, October 5, 2025 

Trade unions and similar organizations of professional parasites in civilized European countries need to act urgently, otherwise they will all soon be left without work, because social standards in the EU are already maintained at a very high level.

So this entire gang switches over to either protecting the environment and workers from each other, or to something international—using, for example, ancient human anti-Semitism, which can now be conveniently and modernly called the defense of the Palestinians of Gaza. In reality, all calls for the rights of Palestinian thugs (and their loyal, innocent voters) are translated the same way in all languages: THE LEFT WANT TO EAT!  

They don't care about the details—who in faraway Palestine first brought the terrorists to power with their mass militant vote, who then actually launched the terror in Israel, and who is the real aggressor (since all of this are unnecessary details), just as many, by the way, don't care who started the war in Ukraine. They just need to stupidly feign vigorous activity so as not to lose their place in the sun. And where the f*ck were you all with your slogans on October 7, 2023?"

US policy is influenced by the fact that the USA buys uranium from Russia

From the Dialog, Oct 4:

"Podolyak explained why the West has recognized the threat but is still not ready to take action: "For them, it's war..." 

Mykhailo Podolyak stated that those European countries closer to Ukraine are "waking up" faster

Mikhail Podolyak answered the question of whether anyone would recognize Rosatom as a terrorist organization: "Unfortunately, they don't, because they are supplying almost $1 billion worth of uranium to the United States. Russia has been integrated into the global resource-based economic process, and this doesn't allow countries to refuse, because many businessmen, unfortunately, still profit from cooperation with the Russian Federation."  

Mikhail Podolyak spoke about this on the ICTV YouTube channel. 

"Understanding and willingness to act are two different psychological components. You need to understand that the closer you are to Ukraine, the more deeply you understand what's happening. Look at the countries of Northern Europe, the countries of Eastern Europe, with the exception of Hungary... These countries already sincerely understand what's coming to Europe and what already exists in Europe, and that Russia won't stop," the political strategist expressed his view on the situation. 

Mikhail Podolyak then added: "Russia, on the contrary, today feels it has the opportunity to live as it wishes, amidst constant escalation, in constant war. In other words, they are 'in love' with this war. For them, war is the realization of a dream of dominance for the 'Russian world,' but this realization and action are two different things. For example, the further you are from Ukraine (for example, in Central Europe, Western Europe), the less prepared you are to accept that the world is being rebuilt, rapidly rebuilt. They are precisely the ones who are inclined to long discussions."" 

Russia is nuclear-armed terrorist organization

From UNIAN:

"Nuclear Power Plant Attacks: Russia is Hamas with Nuclear Weapons

Vladimir Omelchenko, Director of Energy Programs, Razumkov Center, 03.10.25

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin continues to issue threats against Ukraine. Specifically, at a session of the Valdai Discussion Club, he raised the possibility of Russian strikes on Ukrainian nuclear power plants. 

Trump again sides with Putin

From the Telegraph / Yahoo!News:

"Trump criticises Ukraine for ‘attacking Putin’s house’

Antonia Langford

Donald Trump has criticised Ukraine for allegedly attacking Vladimir Putin’s official residence in an overnight drone strike.

Sergei Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, said on Monday that Moscow had downed 91 long-range drones over Putin’s Valdai residence in Novgorod, without providing any evidence, and said Russia’s position in peace talks would “be revised” as a result.

Volodymyr Zelensky dismissed the claims as “another round of lies” intended to derail negotiations, but the US president sided with Russia and said the alleged attack left him “very angry”.

After a phone call with Putin, Mr Trump told reporters outside Mar-a-Lago: “You know who told me about it? President Putin, early in the morning, he said he was attacked. It’s no good. “It’s a delicate period of time. This is not the right time. It’s one thing to be offensive because they’re offensive. It’s another thing to attack his house. It’s not the right time to do any of that.”

Alexander Grushko, Russia’s deputy minister of foreign affairs, also claimed there was a “British influence” discernible in the attack. “The Russian Federation will respond accordingly to this provocation,” he said of the drone strike.

But Mr Zelensky said in a statement on X: “This alleged ‘residence strike’ story is a complete fabrication intended to justify additional attacks against Ukraine, including Kyiv, as well as Russia’s own refusal to take necessary steps to end the war.”

The claims by Mr Lavrov, who does not typically announce drone strikes, came hours after Mr Trump met Mr Zelensky in Mar-a-Lago for peace talks where he said US security guarantees were “95 per cent” decided.

Russia’s defence ministry earlier on Monday claimed that it had only downed 89 Ukrainian drones across the country overnight, with just 18 over the Novgorod region, appearing to contradict Mr Lavrov’s claims.

Mr Lavrov said the Kremlin’s position in negotiations to end the war in Ukraine would “be revised” as a result of what he called a “terrorist attack”, but claimed that Moscow has no intention of withdrawing from talks. He told Russian state media: “Such reckless actions will not go unanswered,” adding that Moscow had already identified targets for a retaliatory strike on Ukraine. 

The statement by the foreign minister was unusual because drone strikes by Ukraine are usually announced by Russia’s regional authorities and defence ministry.

Senior Kremlin aide Yuri Ushakov said Mr Trump was “shocked” when he was told about the alleged attack on the phone call with Putin. Mr Ushakov also claimed that Mr Trump had said “thank God” he did not supply Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk cruise missiles, adding that it would “undoubtedly” affect America’s approach to negotiations.

Meanwhile, Andrii Sybiha, Ukraine’s foreign minister, accused Moscow of looking for “false justification” for further strikes, after Russia launched a huge assault on Kyiv early on Saturday.

It was not clear whether Putin was at the residence at the time of the alleged strike. Reports have stated that the Russian president has increasingly favoured Valdai since the start of the full-scale invasion in February 2022. The countryside property is located on a peninsula between two lakes, making it difficult to target with drones and missiles, and is thought to be heavily guarded. Satellite imagery from 2024 showed 12 heavy-duty Pantsir-S1 air defence systems installed around Lake Valdai as Kyiv stepped up its attacks on Russian soil...

Mr Zelensky revealed that he asked Mr Trump to provide Ukraine with security guarantees lasting half a century. He said to journalists after his meeting with Mr Trump in Florida: “I told [Mr Trump] that the war is still going on, and it has been going on for almost 15 years ... I told him that we would very much like to consider the possibility of 30, 40, 50 years.” He added that Mr Trump had replied that he would think about the request...

Mr Trump said on Sunday that US security guarantees were “95 per cent” decided, but added that European countries would “take over a big part” of the effort to ensure Ukraine’s security in the event of a peace deal."

***

Who in his right mind, however, would trust Trump's security guarantees? Not that Trump's predecessors were much better - they reneged their obligations by the Budapest Memorandum. 

Ukrainian foreign minister: Governments worry about fake Ukrainian attack against Putin but not about real Russian attack against Ukrainian government

Ukrainian foreign minister Andriy Sybiha in X:

"Almost a day passed and Russia still hasn’t provided any plausible evidence to its accusations of Ukraine’s alleged “attack on Putin’s residence.” And they won’t. Because there’s none. No such attack happened. 

We were disappointed and concerned to see the statements by Emirati, Indian, and Pakistani sides expressing their concerns regarding the attack that never happened.

It is even more surprising given that all three states failed to issue any official statements when a real Russian missile struck the real Ukrainian government building on September 7, 2025. 

Russia has a long record of false claims — it’s their signature tactic. For instance, Russia claimed it wouldn’t attack Ukraine in the beginning of 2022. They also often accuse others of what they themselves plan to do. Their words should never be taken at face value. 

Such reactions to Russia’s baseless manipulative claims only play into Russian propaganda and encourage Moscow for more atrocities and lies. We call on all states to act responsibly and refrain from responding to unverified claims — this undermines the constructive peace process that has been advancing lately." 

ISW: Russian claims about Ukrainian strike against Putin's residence do not add up

I am interrupting the stream of old news with an actual one - from the Institute for the Study of War:

"Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 29, 2025

The Kremlin accused Ukraine of conducting a long-range drone strike targeting Russian President Vladimir Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast on December 29. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov claimed that Ukrainian forces launched 91 long-range drones against Putin’s residence overnight on December 28 to 29 in Novgorod Oblast, likely referring to the residence in Valdai, Novgorod Oblast.[1] Lavrov claimed that Russian forces downed the drones and that the strike caused no damage. Lavrov condemned this alleged strike and stated that Russia will “revise” its negotiating position due to the strike. US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin had a phone call on December 29, and Russian Presidential Aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Putin informed Trump about the claimed strike and told him that Russia will “reconsider” its position on peace agreements.[2] The United States has not published a readout of the December 29 Trump-Putin call as of this writing, though US officials — including Trump — confirmed the call occurred and that Putin made claims to Trump about the alleged strike.[3]   

The circumstances of this alleged strike do not conform to the pattern of observed evidence when Ukrainian forces conduct strikes into Russia. Confirmed Ukrainian strikes in Russia typically generate evidence observable in open sources. Such evidence includes footage, often geolocated, of air defense operations, explosions, fires, or smoke plumes near targeted objects; statements from local and regional Russian authorities, usually downplaying successful Ukrainian strikes as “debris” from downed drones; and reports from local sources and media of fire or damage to such objects. ISW has not observed any such footage nor local or regional reporting about Ukrainian strikes near Putin’s residence to corroborate Lavrov’s claim. Lavrov’s claim of downing 89 Ukrainian drones over Novgorod Oblast is also inconsistent with the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD’s) claim that Russian forces downed 47 Ukrainian drones over the oblast overnight on December 28 to 29, further undermining the claim. Ukrainian forces previously struck numerous military targets in Novgorod Oblast, which produced evidence.[4] The Kremlin has offered no evidence to support its claim that Ukrainian forces targeted Putin’s residence on December 29.

Russian opposition outlet Sota published an investigation into the alleged strike on December 29, reporting that Valdai residents did not hear air defenses operating overnight, even though Russian air defenses would have had to operate to down up to 91 Ukrainian drones.[5] Sota reported that drones launched from Ukraine’s northern border would have to cross into heavily protected Russian airspace, including multiple installations of Strategic Missile Forces facilities, air defense units, military aviation, and other assets that would either be under heavy air defense protection or themselves act as the Russian air defense umbrella. Sota concluded that Ukraine would have been able to strike Putin’s residence in Valdai through a “miracle” or deliberate Russian military negligence. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL)’s Russia service reported in August 2025 that Russia increased the number of air defense systems defending Valdai from two to 12 from 2022 to August 2025.[6]

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky refuted the alleged strike against Putin’s residence in Novgorod Oblast and warned that Russia will use this claim to justify strikes against Kyiv City and Ukrainian government buildings.[7] Russia has already targeted Ukrainian government buildings in previous long-range strikes, including Ukraine’s Cabinet of Ministers building in Kyiv City in September 2025.[8] Lavrov stated that Russia has determined the targets and timing for retaliatory strikes against Ukraine but did not provide further specifics.[9] Russia has already intensified its long-range strike campaign against Ukraine in recent months, however, specifically targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of Winter 2025-2026.[10] Russia has notably intensified strikes against Ukraine around negotiations multiple times since the Trump administration began pursuing peace efforts in Winter 2025, including most recently overnight on December 26 to 27, ahead of Zelensky’s talks with Trump in Florida on December 28.[11] Russian overnight long-range strike packages purposefully target Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and disproportionately impact civilians.[12]

The Kremlin may intend to use this claimed strike to justify its rejection of any peace proposals that come out of recent bilateral US-Ukrainian and multilateral US-Ukrainian-European talks.[13] Ushakov’s readout of the December 29 Trump-Putin call criticized the US-Ukrainian framework, likely referring to the 20-point peace proposal, as “still leav[ing] room” for Ukraine to “avoid” unspecified obligations and rejected the notion of a ceasefire.[14] Since the Trump administration began peace efforts in January-February 2025, the Kremlin has sought to delay and prolong peace negotiations in order to continue its war undisturbed, prevent the U.S. from imposing measures intended to pressure Russia into meaningful negotiations, and even to extract concessions about bilateral US-Russian relations.[15]

Russian President Vladimir Putin and high-ranking Russian military commanders held another meeting to aggrandize tactical details and create the false impression that the front lines across Ukraine are on the verge of collapse. Putin met with the leadership of the Russian General Staff and grouping of forces commanders on December 29 — following a string of performative, publicized meetings between Putin and his commanders in recent weeks, including the most recent meeting on December 27.[16] Putin, Russian Chief of the General Staff Army General Valery Gerasimov, and the groupings of forces commanders made a series of exaggerated claims about Russian successes across the battlefield, all of which rely on exaggerated quantitative data intended to obfuscate the relatively slow rate of Russian advances. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces seized over 700 square kilometers and 32 settlements in Ukraine in December 2025 and 6,640 square kilometers and 334 settlements in total in 2025. ISW has observed evidence indicating a Russian presence (either through assaults or infiltration missions) in 480 square kilometers, and that Russian forces seized or completely infiltrated 23 settlements in December 2025. ISW has also observed evidence indicating a Russian presence in 4,952 square kilometers and seized or completely infiltrated 245 settlements in all of 2025. Russian Northern Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Yevgeny Nikiforov claimed that Russian forces seized 940 square kilometers in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts in 2025. ISW has observed evidence to assess a Russian presence in 639 square kilometers in Kharkiv and Sumy oblasts during 2025. Nikiforov notably claimed that Russian forces have advanced to within 20 kilometers of Sumy City in 2025 — an implicit acknowledgement that Russian forces have advanced under seven kilometers deep in the area, given that Sumy City is located roughly 27 kilometers from the Sumy Oblast northern international border where Russian forces hold the deepest positions.

Putin and senior Russian military officials continued to heavily aggrandize Russian operations near Kupyansk despite all available evidence indicating that Ukrainian forces have liberated much of the town and surrounding area.[17] Russian Western Grouping of Forces Commander Colonel General Sergei Kuzovlev claimed that Russian forces will complete the encirclement of Ukrainian forces in Kupyansk in January to February 2026, which is incredibly slow compared to how long Russian officials have been making claims about nearly completing the seizure of Kupyansk.[18] ... Gerasimov and the other Russian commanders claimed that Russian forces seized Dibrova (northwest of Siversk), Drobysheve (northwest of Lyman), and Lukyanivske (northwest of Orikhiv) as of December 29. ISW has not observed geolocated evidence to assess any Russian presence in Dibrova or Drobysheve as of December 29, or that Russian forces completed the seizure of Lukyanivske. Russian Southern Grouping of Forces Commander Lieutenant General Sergei Medvedev claimed on December 29 that Russian forces have seized 40 to 45 percent of Kostyantynivka — contradicting Gerasimov’s December 27 claim that Russian forces seized over half of the buildings in Kostyantynivka.[21] ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in five percent of Kostyantynivka. Gerasimov claimed that Russian forces control over half of Lyman, Donetsk Oblast though ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have operated in only six percent of Lyman... 

The Kremlin is intensifying its efforts to portray the front line as imminently collapsing across the theater and claim that Russian forces are capable of imminently threatening Ukraine’s Fortress Belt. Available evidence continues to indicate that the front line is not collapsing, and Russian forces would require at least two to three years to seize all of Ukraine’s Fortress Belt.[22] Pro-war Russian ultranationalist milbloggers are publicly acknowledging that the Russian military command’s claims are exaggerated..."

***

When told by Putin about the alleged Ukrainian strike, Trump of course believed every word, and said that the news made him "very angry".

Monday, December 29, 2025

Kuleba: For Trump, any success of Ukraine is bad

From an interview of former Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba to the Orest Sohar in the Obozrevatel, Oct 4:

"  Why is Trump so drawn to Putin's embrace? I think they're politically close. They both recognize the primacy of force in politics; they enjoy flexing their muscles and dominating the world based on their economic, political, and military advantages...

They like each other on a human level. Including for the reasons you described. Second,... it is important to understand that in Trump's world, in the world of the realist school of American foreign policy in general (where there are both Democrats and Republicans), victory, any success for Ukraine in the war with Russia is harmful.

Why? Because it sends the wrong message: that you don't have to submit to the will of the strong. It means you can resist and get your way. And tomorrow, America will come to, say, the Latin American country of Panama to seize the canal. Panama will say, "We'll be like Ukraine; we'll all rise up in war for our independence."

 How unexpectedly you 'twisted' this.  

I know how they think. I've interacted with them a lot in my life. And for them, this is a problem. It's impossible. And especially for Trump.

– What is the most cynical statement from our partners or politicians that you have heard while on duty?

That "we won’t give you Patriots, because by the time you learn how to use them, the war will already be over". 

– Did the Americans say this?

Yes. My most painful disappointment was that in 2024, when air attacks intensified significantly, we still weren't able to receive those famous 10 Patriot batteries. One arrived, then we were promised another. For me, the Patriot story is the most painful, because it could have been done much faster, in larger quantities, but we were never able to convince our partners to help us with it on a large scale." 

Ukrainian Holocause survivor speaks

From the Atlantic Council, Jan 30:

"Ukrainian Holocaust survivor: Russia is waging ‘war of extermination’

By Peter Dickinson

Ukrainian Holocaust survivor Roman Schwarzman has implored Germany to increase support for Ukraine in the fight against Russia’s “war of extermination.” Addressing the Bundestag this week as part of events to mark 80 years since the liberation of Auschwitz, Schwarzman accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of attempting to “destroy” Ukraine as a nation. “Back then, Hitler wanted to kill me because I am Jewish. Now Putin wants to kill me because I am Ukrainian.”

Schwarzman, 88, is president of Ukraine’s association for concentration camp and ghetto survivors. Born in Ukraine’s Vinnytsia region in the 1930s when it was part of the Soviet Union, he told German lawmakers of the “humiliation, pain, lice, and constant hunger” he had experienced as a child while confined to the ghetto in the town of Bershad during the Nazi occupation of World War II. “I have already been able to escape extermination once,” he commented. “Now I am an old man and must once again live with the fear that my children and grandchildren could fall victim to a war of extermination.”

Germany ranks second behind the United States in terms of military aid for Ukraine, but Schwarzman called on the country to do more."

Putin blames Poland for starting WWII

From the official Kremlin site:

"Valdai Discussion Club meeting

Vladimir Putin took part in the plenary session of the 22nd annual meeting of the Valdai International Discussion Club.

NATO must resist Putin before it is too late

From the Dialog, Oct 2:

"Zhdanov revealed part of Putin's plan, which he will implement if NATO "collapses" 

Oleg Zhdanov called on NATO countries to begin resisting Russia before Putin completely destroys the Alliance

"Putin has crossed all acceptable boundaries. Remember, in 2022 and 2023, there was talk of escalation. Another step, another step of escalation. Back then, everyone was drawing 'red lines.' We all discussed it. Escalation reached the limit in terms of the use of nuclear weapons, but then Putin was given a cold shoulder. He was told, 'Just try it. Don't even think about it.' Russians still occasionally mention the nuclear baton, but they don't swing it too hard," Oleg Zhdanov recalled...

"So how can we escalate further? We need to expand the conflict. If we can't go any further up (a nuclear bomb can't be used, it has a big red cross on it), then we need to go wider. That's what Putin did: he went wider, he went after NATO, and with a hybrid war (it's not really a war on one side, but on the other, he's seriously harassing NATO countries)," the military expert suggested.  

Oleg Zhdanov then warned NATO of Putin's plans: "We'll see how decisive Europe will be in using force to fight off Russia. If they don't fight back, Putin will use these methods to drive them to a white heat, to hysteria, and then strangle them and say: either you capitulate to me, or I will continue the terror. When NATO collapses, and it will soon collapse in this new type of hybrid war, Putin will then 'strangle them one by one' and 'swallow them under his wing.' So this is their only chance.""

Ukrainian writer about Russian culture

This opinion may be a little extreme but is nevertheless worth considering - Maxim Omelchenko, Faktor, Oct 1:

"Khviloviy instead of Dostoevsky

... Despite the heroism of Ukrainian soldiers on the front and the endurance of the people in the rear, in the fourth year of the great war, there are still politicians in the West who are trying to ignore the very existence of the Ukrainian nation. Suffice it to mention the statements of the US President’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, who in April of this year said that Ukraine could hand over to Russia “the regions where Russian is spoken” because they were “less important” to it. On the other hand, Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico [and also Orban in Hungary - M. M.] recently stated that Ukraine was not a sovereign state. Such ignorance may be the result of Russian propaganda but also of Ukraine’s virtual absence in the world cultural field. Simply put, while on the shelves of bookstores in Rome or London there are Dostoevsky and Chekhov, but not a single Ukrainian author – Ukraine will continue to be subconsciously considered “less valuable”, secondary...

On September 1 of this year, the popular German newspaper Berliner Zeitung published an interview with Ukrainian director Taras Tomenko under the telltale title "Russian culture brings nothing good."... Tomenko talks about his feature film The House of the Word. Unfinished Novel, dedicated to the fate of Ukrainian artists from the so-called “Shooted Revival”, whose work has gained new popularity in recent years both in Ukraine and abroad... 

At the very beginning of the interview, the Ukrainian intrigued the German reader by stating that his film, which has been shown in Ukrainian cinemas for a year and a half, “gives an answer to the question of why this war started.” Taras Tomenko further explains: “It didn’t start in 2014, but much earlier. Even before the emergence of the USSR, Russia wanted to destroy Ukraine, to kill Ukrainians, and above all, to destroy culture. In the film, I show how they killed people with the Holodomor, how they exterminated the intelligentsia. My hero is the real-life writer Mykola Khviloviy. He saw the Holodomor with his own eyes and two weeks later, in protest against Stalin’s policies, he committed suicide.” 

The Ukrainian expressed the bold and quite unexpected for the German audience idea that the Russian-Ukrainian war is essentially the clash of two civilizations. “This is a struggle between two ways of life. Russian culture does not bring anything good: first comes the Russian ballet, and then the Russian tanks,” he stated. Tomenko criticized European tolerance of Russian culture and advised the audience to be aware of its influence. When asked by the journalist whether he really advises to abandon the so-called “classics” such as Dostoevsky or Chekhov, Tomenko answers categorically: “You better not read this if you want to stay alive. After the Russians arrived in the occupied territories, all Ukrainian books were destroyed, and they brought Dostoevsky and Pushkin. Russian culture does not bring anything good. The murderers grew up from the generation of people who read Dostoevsky.”

For decades, Russian art has been the Kremlin’s “soft power,” creating an aura of “great culture” and concealing the reality of repression, war, and occupation. To break out of this mindset, the West must not only support Ukraine, but also show courage and admit its own mistakes: not only the procrastination after the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Donbas in 2014, but also the indifference to the Russian occupation of part of Georgia in 2008. This was also addressed by President Volodymyr Zelensky in his speech to the UN General Assembly on September 24, when he recalled: “The world ignored Russia’s attack on Georgia… We Georgia is already lost to Europe, it is dependent on Russia. Europe cannot afford to lose Moldova as well.”..."

It is a disgrace that Hungary helps Russia destroy facilities in Ukraine

In the Obozrevatel, Ukrainian historian and diplomat Olexander Levchenko comments on the Hungarian drones invading Ukrainian airspace:

"Hungarian drones are joining Russian ones. Budapest is spying for Moscow

2.10.2025 

... Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov once again stated that Moscow has no plans to attack EU and NATO countries. However, similar statements were made regarding Ukraine just days before the large-scale invasion in 2022 and the deployment of Russian troops to Ukrainian Crimea in February 2014. And the Russian Foreign Ministry's press secretary repeated the mantra that Ukrainians manipulated Russian drones during the attack on Poland. However, everyone knows that some of the drones flew in from Belarus, where taking control of them is even theoretically impossible. And what about Russian aircraft flying into Estonia, Latvia, and other Baltic states? Were they also manipulated from Kyiv, with Ukrainian crews deployed there? Apparently, everyone has noticed that unknown drones appear precisely on the territory of those NATO member states that support Ukraine the most.

There are no drones over pro-Russian Hungary and Slovakia. However, drones have flown into Ukrainian territory from Hungary. Hungarian Prime Minister Orbán and Foreign Minister Szijjártó claimed that this was simply Kyiv's anti-Hungarian hysteria. In other words, Budapest behaved in the same way as Moscow – denying everything. Meanwhile, when satellite images of Hungarian drones flying over Ukrainian strategic facilities were presented, Prime Minister Viktor Orbán brazenly declared: "Now the question is not whether two, three, or four Hungarian drones flew over or not. Let's assume they did fly over there, then what? Ukraine is not an independent, sovereign country. If the West decides tomorrow not to give a single forint, Ukraine could close up. So the drones are not what Ukraine should worry about." 

The answer to this position is simple. The West certainly doesn't provide aid to Ukraine in forints. Budapest has already tried dozens of times to block this aid to Ukraine, and has been partially successful. However, Ukraine largely keeps European airspace relatively calm by shooting down several hundred Russian drones daily, which could at some point fly directly to European capitals. It's not easy, which is why the West is helping.

Poland faced this reality when it shot down only four out of 20 Russian drones. It did so by deploying its entire air force, NATO aircraft based in the country, and its entire air defense system, including Patriot batteries, which Ukraine sorely lacks and which Kyiv uses exclusively against ballistic missiles, as drones and cruise missiles can also shoot down other air defense systems. Ukraine moved some production facilities closer to the border to make them harder for Russian missiles and drones to reach, which is why Orbán began helping Moscow locate these facilities for precision Russian strikes. This is simply disgraceful."  

In the 21st century in Europe, children and parents are advised how to survive under rubble

From the Dialog:

"How to survive under rubble after Russian shelling: step-by-step instructions from UNICEF and Ukrainian military medics

Из-за частых атак дронами и ракетами РФ все больше мирных могут оказаться под завалами – ЮНИСЕФ и "Госпитальеры" дали советы, как действовать в таких условиях.

читайте подробнее на сайте "Диалог.UA": https://life.dialog.ua/315829_1750842494

Due to frequent Russian drone and missile attacks, more and more civilians are at risk of being trapped under rubble. UNICEF and the Hospitallers have provided advice on how to respond to these conditions...

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The West did not close the sky over Ukraine out of fear

From UNIAN, Oct 1:

"The West could have closed the skies over Ukraine: an expert explained why they didn't

Putin wants to be feared, which is why he provokes Europe, says Konstantin Krivolap

The West could have closed the skies over Ukraine as early as 2022, but this did not happen due to the West's fear of escalation. Aviation expert Kostyantyn Kryvolap expressed this opinion on Kyiv 24. 
 
"The Biden administration was then, and Sullivan was there. He said that if the Ukrainians moved even slightly, it would be an escalation. Nothing could be done, no airspace over Ukraine could be closed. The Russians warned that if even one aircraft flew into Ukrainian airspace, they would consider it military aggression," Kryvolap said. 
 
He explained that, according to international law, each country can enter into an agreement with another country regarding the protection of its civilian population and nuclear facilities. Therefore, Ukraine had every right to protect both its population and its nuclear facilities.
 
"We have all this. And we could have dismissed such questions if Europe and America had common sense. But fear of Putin won out. And that's what feeds him. What Putin has done for NATO now—he's now showing them they're incapable of anything. He was testing them. And now, apparently, he's received some support from Xi Jinping and has presented Europe with a choice: they must do something. He won't go against NATO, but he'll drink blood. Because the main thing is to be feared," Krivolap added."

Kasparov criticizes the hysteria over Gaza

Garry Kasparov in the Obozrevatel:

"The hype around Gaza is artificially inflated 

10/1/2025 

Hamas, like all Palestinian entities, starting with the so-called PLO, is a product of the KGB. The Palestine Liberation Organization was founded in 1964, three years before the Six-Day War. Founded, of course, in Moscow. Before Arafat, it was led by another thug who openly declared that the PLO's goal was the expulsion of Jews from Palestine. Let me repeat: before the Six-Day War, when nothing was occupied, when the borders were set by UN resolution, and Gaza was controlled by Egypt. 

Under Arafat, the PLO was effectively a KGB branch waging a terrorist war. The fact that Arafat ultimately agreed to negotiations is entirely due to the collapse of the Soviet Union. The USSR disappeared, and Arafat was left without sponsors. It should be noted that sentiment in favor of a peaceful settlement was very strong in Israeli society at the time. In the early 1990s, after the signing of the Oslo Accords, a two-state solution was indeed a real possibility.

But in reality, such a goal has never existed for Palestinian terrorist organizations. Their goal was, is, and will always be the elimination of the State of Israel. This is precisely why Hamas was created. They might temporarily abandon their goal publicly, but strategically, nothing changed.

Incidentally, approximately two million Arabs live in Israel. They are represented in parliament, enjoy full rights, and can complete official documents in their native language. The standard of living for the Arab population in Israel is one of the highest in the region, excluding several Gulf monarchies where citizenship is not granted. Arabs living in Israel enjoy maximum political rights and a high standard of living.

Against this backdrop, comparing Israel to fascist Russia, often heard among the Russian liberal public and in Europe, is a lie and a moral crime. It's an insult to those killed on October 7 during the genocide by Palestinian terrorists filming their atrocities. It's an insult to the Israeli soldiers who are dying today and to the hostages who have been held captive for nearly two years. Israel is waging war in Gaza with methods unparalleled anywhere in the world. If Putin were in the shoes of the Israeli leadership, he would "solve the issue" with Gaza in a single day—by razing everything to the ground, as he is doing in Ukraine.

The hype around Gaza is artificially inflated. Yes, the situation there is truly dire, but the scale of the problem is completely incomparable to other disasters in the world. According to official UN statistics, there are approximately 900 million starving people worldwide, but no one cares because it doesn't score political points. In the center of Europe, a major war—a true genocide—has been raging for four years. Yet, against this backdrop, Europe declares "war" on Israel. It's perfectly clear that this only benefits European politicians, who have completely compromised themselves as politically impotent."