I have always been a big fan of Mervyn King’s speeches and especially the wit and humor he uses in his speeches. Alas, I have been very disappointed lately as his speeches have become confusing and defending BoE turnarounds especially while saving Northern Rock.
His recent speech is also disappointing. He begins like this:
Over that year, the west wind of a credit crunch emanating from the United States and the east wind of higher energy and food prices resulting from the strength of Asian economies have been stirring up the waters through which our economic ship must pass. These two challenges of rising inflation and falling economic growth have led to a crop of doom-laden predictions…
I was like yeah sure. As if all blame lies with Asia and United States. I can understand Asian economies as one of the reasons for this rising inflation but the way all these central banks put it, it looks as if they shouldn’t have grown.
And I can understand if someone in Africa etc blaming US crisis for financial market woes as they had little exposure, but not UK. The UK financial firms were very active in the US subprime space (see this paper which shows UK had the second highest exposure to mortgage assets in US after Cayman Islands) and had to fall.
What was also perplexing was his take on falling growth and rising inflation:
The fact that growth and inflation are heading in opposite directions has led some commentators to question our monetary framework. Target growth not inflation is the cry. I could not disagree more. This is precisely the situation in which the framework of inflation targeting is so necessary. Without it, what should be a short-lived, albeit sharp, rise in inflation, could become sustained.
But Sir you are already targeting growth aren’t you? I had pointeda while back that in its April meeting BoE lowered rates in wake of rising inflationary numbers and expectations. In May BoE paused but didn’t raise the rates as it was uncertain over falling growth and rising inflation. If it was targeting inflation, it would have raised rates as King says:
Price stability – returning inflation to the target – is a precondition for sustained growth, not an alternative.
So, if price stability is a precondition, why not fix it? And that too when BoE expects inflation to touch 4% (see his letter to Chancellor) and inflation has been rising for sometime now. So, it is not as if it has been a big surprise.






