Archive for October 22nd, 2008

What does Raghu Rajan imply?

October 22, 2008

Raghuram Rajan in this speech given at Institute for Economic Growth, Delhi says:

A second lesson from the crisis is that the incentives and abilities of players matter enormously. Our regulations assume that management has financial knowledge, control over the financial institution’s operations, and cares about the long run. Yet, the growing revelations, for example from UBS, suggest that none of these assumptions need be true. Traders ran amuck building large positions, with management seemingly unable to restrain them.

Raghu Rajan first indicated the damage incentives can bring to the financial system in a superb paper presented at Kansas City Fed Symposium -2005. He even analysed the subprime crisis from the perverse incentives angle. So so far so good. Then he says:

In this context, a major source of concern in in India are the state-owned public sector banks. While some of the finest bankers in India are to be found in public sector banks, their inability to pay market salaries to top managers has eroded their strength. The chairman of the State Bank of India, India’s largest bank, makes less than $1000 a month in basic salary. The worry mounts as generations that were recruited in good times, when the public sector had a monopoly, retire.

So, what exactly is his concern? Above he says high incentives lead to the crisis and next he says low incentives erode strength of the Indian Public sector banks? How do you draw the line between high and low?   

This huge incentive structure in finance is clearly overdone. The salaries of public sector banks may be little low but what makes it look really low is the huge salaries in private sector banks. Huge salaries lead to higher risks, which has been proven time and time again.  I am sure with this crisis regualtors would take note and push to limit incentives. When this happens, the salaries of public sector banks would be more in line with markets.

I have noted all the governments which have passed various bailout packages have introduced limits on compensation in case the firm participates in the bailout plan. On these grounds, I think all financial sector regulators should make Indian government/regulators its consultant on designing appropriate incentive structure.

 

Update on Nobel Prize for Economics 2008

October 22, 2008

I have updated previous post on Economcis Nobel Prize for 2008 being awarded to Paul Krugman.

A review of Indian economy post 2000s

October 22, 2008

Prof. Shankar Acharya has written a nice paper reviewing performance of Indian macroeconomy in 2000s.

The paper reviews India’s macroeconomic performance and policies since 2000.

The first section briefly summarizes key macroeconomic developments regarding economic growth, inflation, external balance, the fiscal situation and aggregate savings and investment.

The second section considers some of the challenges posed to macroeconomic management in this period and the efficacy of the policy responses adopted. In particular, it analyses the progress in fiscal consolidation and the policies adopted to deal with the challenge of the unprecedented surge in external capital inflows into India.

The final section outlines some of the major macro policy issues that need to be addressed in the years ahead, including: the resurgence of high fiscal deficits; the issues relating to external convertibility and exchange rate management;  the role of the Reserve Bank of India in macroeconomic policy and coping with a weak international economic environment.

The concern over high fiscal deficit is becoming a central concern for Indian economy.

Assorted Links

October 22, 2008

1. NIPFP-DEA Blog points to training program in econometrics in Delhi

2. MR points is low fed funds rate to be blamed?

3. WSJ Blog points Lehman collapse could and shoudl have been avoided

4. CBB points to a paper which debunks 4 myths about the currrent crisis.

  1. “The claim that disruptions to the banking system necessarily destroy the ability of nonfinancial businesses to borrow from households is highly questionable.”
  2. The data show no decline in bank lending to nonfinancial business.
  3. Nonfinancial business are issuing commercial paper at quite low interest rates.
  4. The volume of interbank loans continues to be quite high

5. Rodrik points to a new paper on understanding conflict

6. Econbrowser points to interesting economic map of Europe which does not look good at all


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