Archive for October 9th, 2009

A contrarian paper on impact of Climate Change

October 9, 2009

When the entire world is gearing up to discuss and understand and limit impact of climate change, there are some  who think contradictory. All this is welcome as then only we will have a healthy debate

Robert Mendelsohn of Yale is one such contrarian.  In this paper he covers  a vast literature to show the impact of climate change on eco growth is at best limited. He covers the research on impact of climate change on various eco variables- agriculture, water, forest, recreation etc. He also says chances of catastrophic events is very rare. He says mitigation costs are overstated. According to him the biggest threat of climate change is:

The biggest threat climate change poses to economic growth, however, is not from climate damages or efficient mitigation policies, but rather from immediate, aggressive, and inefficient mitigation policies. Immediate aggressive mitigation policies could lead to mitigation costs equal to $28 trillion (Stern 2006). This is 14 times higher than the mitigation costs of an optimal policy. If these policies were no more efficient than current policies, the costs could easily rise to $56 trillion. These misguided mitigation programs pose a serious threat to economic growth. They would impose heavy additional costs on the global economy that cannot be justified by the limited reductions in climate risk that they offer.

:-). He points that in short run, mitigation costs functions are price inelastic and will be very expensive.

An inelastic short‐run marginal cost function implies that large reductions of emissions in the short run will be very expensive. There simply is no inexpensive way to reduce emissions sharply in the short run. Renewable energy sources such as hydroelectricity have largely been exhausted. Solar and wind power are expensive except in ideal locations and circumstances. Other strategies such as shifting from coal to natural gas can work only in the short run as they cause more rapid depletion of natural gas supplies.

In the short run, a rushed public policy is likely to be inefficient. It will likely exempt major polluters as Europe now does with coal. Very few national mitigation programs regulate every source of emission. Most countries have sought to reduce emissions in only a narrow sector of the national economy. Rushed programs will likely invest in specific technologies that are ineffective, such as the United States has done with ethanol. Ethanol produces as much greenhouse gas as gasoline. The inelasticity of the marginal cost function implies that mitigation programs that are not applied universally will be very wasteful. Regulated polluters will spend a lot to eliminate a single ton while unregulated polluters will spend nothing.

He also says for mitigation to work, international participation is needed (a point Nordhaus makes). Without it, again it will be inefficient and costly. So, overall we are just heading towards making more wasteful policies.

 

Come to think of it, he is trying to make the right points. There is a sudden rush to do everything about climate change. It is the hot thing and big time in fashion. Yes, we need to be aware and even if changes are expected say 40-50 years from now, we need to start working on them gradually. We all should be aware and educated about this issue. But just to glamorize it and do some short term policies and ignore it later, will not work.  We need to debate this issue with more seriousness minus all the jazz.

 See Mendelsohn’s number of paperson Climate change. It is just amazing. The research culture in US Univs just leaves you short of breath. They devote so much time to it. And there are so many econs who are completely unknown but have done amazing work.

Obama gets Nobel peace prize 2009

October 9, 2009

This is an amazing piece of news. Nobel Committee has decided to award 2009 Peace Prize to the US President- Barack Obama. The award is for:

“for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples”
The press release is here.

The Norwegian Nobel Committee has decided that the Nobel Peace Prize for 2009 is to be awarded to President Barack Obama for his extraordinary efforts to strengthen international diplomacy and cooperation between peoples. The Committee has attached special importance to Obama’s vision of and work for a world without nuclear weapons.

Obama has as President created a new climate in international politics. Multilateral diplomacy has regained a central position, with emphasis on the role that the United Nations and other international institutions can play. Dialogue and negotiations are preferred as instruments for resolving even the most difficult international conflicts. The vision of a world free from nuclear arms has powerfully stimulated disarmament and arms control negotiations. Thanks to Obama’s initiative, the USA is now playing a more constructive role in meeting the great climatic challenges the world is confronting. Democracy and human rights are to be strengthened.

Only very rarely has a person to the same extent as Obama captured the world’s attention and given its people hope for a better future. His diplomacy is founded in the concept that those who are to lead the world must do so on the basis of values and attitudes that are shared by the majority of the world’s population.

For 108 years, the Norwegian Nobel Committee has sought to stimulate precisely that international policy and those attitudes for which Obama is now the world’s leading spokesman. The Committee endorses Obama’s appeal that “Now is the time for all of us to take our share of responsibility for a global response to global challenges.”

I read somewhere he has been in reckoning for a while. To get it at this point of time when he has just become US president in 2009 is great stuff. What a year for Obama. The US also seems to be easing out of the Great Recession.
This also puts Obama under severe pressure. As the President of the US, he needs to keep doing his good work. This is a great honor and all eyes would be on him. May be the Nobel Committee awarded him the prize just now, so that the pressure is always on. 
Update:
Whoever I am breaking this news to say- What for?? Some have even called it strange choice. Someone even said may be they had no choice this time.
I am sure this prize is going to be debated left, right and centre. 
 

Interviews of Fisher, De Soto and Solow

October 9, 2009

Via the blogosphere, I came three interviews of 3 economists on 3 very different issues.

Loads of insights in very few words. Especially the interview of De Soto.

Nice Updates on US and Global economy

October 9, 2009

Dallas Fed has interesting and very readable updates on US economy and International economy. It has good charts and is very brief. Makes an impact right away.  Very helpful in getting a snapshot. The recent update on US economy is pretty good as well.


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