Archive for November 30th, 2017

3 Dec 2017: 50 years of first human heart transplant…

November 30, 2017

Superb piece by Marina Joubert of Stellenbosch University. It is amazing how much is written about economic event anniversaries and very little about things which just changed humanity.

Marina takes us through the first human heart transplant 50 years ago by Dr Chris Barnard:

South Africa’s Chris Barnard stands out in medical history as the heart surgeon who became a global household name after transplanting the first human heart on 3 December 1967.

The historic surgery captured the world’s imagination and was hailed by 20th-century historians as socially and scientifically of equal significancecompared to the moon-landing in 1969.

I examined aspects of this landmark surgery in two papers. The one looks at how Barnard fits into the mould of celebrity scientists across the world. The other zooms in on Barnard himself and how the media shaped perceptions of his landmark surgery.

The dramatic events that unfolded 50 years ago in Cape Town on December 2 and 3, 1967 had all the makings of media gold. It was a daring world-first in medicine, performed by a largely unknown surgeon in a hospital far away from leading medical centres around the world where other surgeons were working towards the same goal. Embedded in the drama were real people set to become instantly famous and whose lives would change forever.

Underlying it all, were moral apprehensions about whether doctors were playing God which resulted in fierce criticism of Barnard. The criticism was tempered by public fascination with the idea that one person’s heart could beat in someone else’s chest, as well as by Barnard’s explanations that the heart was nothing more than a pump.

On top of all this, Barnard’s charisma and the increasing competition between news companies fuelled the unprecedented media interest. No other medical milestone has had such a defining effect on the relationship between medicine, media and society.

The historic human heart transplant demonstrates the power of mass media to transform a scientist into a global icon. It highlights how public visibility offers some scientists a path to influence and power, but also illustrates that scientific celebrity comes with considerable reputational and personal risk.

It reminds us that science, morals and politics have always been, and will always be, inextricably interlinked.

A highly welcome read…

Understanding the revision process of Indian GDP data

November 30, 2017

Nice article by Amey Sapre and Rajeshwari Sengupta. It is based on their paper.

They explain how estimates of GDP are built overtime:

In India, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) releases five estimates of annual GDP for any given year, over a period of two years and 10 months. The initial estimates (or projections) are called the Advance Estimates (AE) and Provisional Estimates (PE). Over time, the initial estimates are revised and are sequentially termed the First (1st RE), Second (2nd RE) and Third (3rd RE) Revised Estimates. Typically, for various stakeholders and for policy formulations, the initial GDP estimates are more relevant as they are available within the financial year. However, the true picture of the economy, in terms of the magnitude and direction of growth, unfolds over the entire revision cycle. It is thus important to study the revision cycle in order to obtain a detailed picture of growth in the economy. Studying revisions helps us to understand the methods, data sources, and the quality of GDP estimates in terms of reliability, credibility, and accuracy.

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Hmm…Useful timeline..

Their findings of revisions for the period 2004-05 to 2016-17 show that there is fair bit of uncertainty on the final number:

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A primer on the rise of populism and a way forward

November 30, 2017

Gulzar posts about why rise of populism is closely linked to inequality and gulf between 1% and 99%.

Why is it happening? But this consensus was accompanied by a less benign bipartisan elite convergence (more of it latter) which effectively ended up capturing the economic and political establishment. 
The rapid and fairly inclusive economic progress achieved in the period helped underpin this consensus and paper over fissures that were developing due to forces like trade liberalisation, globalisation, de-unionisation, and skill-biased technological changes. But once growth started slowing, for a variety of factors, these fissures started to show up.
But mainstream political parties, captives as they had become of elite interests, failed to see the breakdown in social consensus. The liberal elites too became caught up in their rhetoric.    
Nothing has been more emblematic of this isolation of elites from the electorate than the staggering levels of economic inequality, which has been widening at a rapid pace since the millennium. As the graphic below shows, in the US, the share of national income going to the top 1% has nearly doubled from 11% in 1980 to 20% in 2014. 
Fair amount of graphs etc to emphasise his point.
What is the way out? Gulzar quoting Prof. Rodrik says “the most promising solution may be to let the house burn down completely!”…

 

 

 

How to Succeed in Business (According to a 15th Century Trade Merchant)

November 30, 2017

In 1458 a trade merchant Benedetto Cotrugli from Venice (where else?) wrote this book: The Book of the Art of Trade. It has now been translated in English and not surprisingly most of the lessons apply even today.

Julia Hanna in HBSWK writes:

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