Interesting piece by Rajeev Malik. It is always useful to compare economies as it helps get a better picture (could also be a case of comparing apple with an orange).
Both India and Indonesia elected leaders in 2014 amidst new hope and change:
India and Indonesia experienced positive tectonic political change in their national elections in 2014. The actual delivery by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in India and President Joko Widodo (“Jokowi”) in Indonesia has been positive, but less than the hyped-up investor expectations. The two countries are scheduled to have elections in 2019, and an important differentiation between them is inflation: It eased in both countries, but Indonesia is the clear winner.
Malik points to similarities and differences between the two economies in recent years.
The central banks have hiked rates in both the economies. But for Indonesia it is to defend against the so called currency war and in India for inflation:
India has better managed food inflation than Indonesia. Food inflation declined this year, to 3.2% year-on-year in June, while it increased in Indonesia, to 5.4% in July. The Modi government deserves credit for ensuring lower food inflation. However, it hasn’t implemented any new institutional framework that inspires confidence that stability in food inflation will be sustained and isn’t just a propitious outcome of good luck and ad-hoc policy steps. A key concern is that with core inflation already firming in the early stages of recovery, any increase in food inflation from an unanticipated supply shock will further complicate inflation management for the infant monetary policy committee (MPC).
The motivation for monetary tightening this year was different in the two economies, which have significantly improved their macroeconomic landscape compared to the “taper tantrums” in 2013 when they were included in the Fragile 5 economies. BI has been more aggressive, hiking its policy rate by a cumulative 100 basis points (bps) in three steps to 5.25%. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) monetary policy committee (MPC) raised interest rates 50bps to 6.5% in two consecutive hikes.
In Indonesia’s case, higher rates were necessary mainly to defend the currency from destabilizing depreciation. India’s MPC, on the other hand, emphasized inflation concerns rather than currency defence as its main goal when it unexpectedly raised the repo rate in June. It hiked again in August and announced its inflation forecast for early 2019-20 at an elevated 5%.
Additional monetary tightening is in store for both economies, but the use of interest rates to defend the currency is a bigger risk for Indonesia than India. It will also be subject to external triggers. Inflation risk, however, is more underappreciated in India.
He does not add that perhaps the hike in Indonesia was also due to the suffering of the economy in SE Asian crisis. They are just being cautious this time having learnt the lessons (perhaps)…






