Archive for November 7th, 2019

The Road to Serfdom at 75: When central bankers reflect on lessons from Hayek

November 7, 2019

Yale Univ recently organised a conference on the 75 years of Hayek’s book : Road to serfdom. I had pointed to a fascinating paper on the Book’s 75 years earlier.

One of the speakers in the Yale event was Randall Quarles, Vice chair of Federal Reserve.

In his speech he reflects on lessons from Hayek:

The financial crisis, and the deep recession that followed it, prompted changes in the United States’ regulatory framework. These changes have been designed to make the financial system more resilient than it was before the crisis. By creating appropriate incentives and rules, they should also encourage financial markets to price risk more appropriately than they did in the years leading up to the crisis—for example, by reducing the danger of investor complacency regarding the riskiness of their investments and the possibility of adverse scenarios. If we follow Hayek and regard the price system as like a telecommunications network, and then apply that metaphor to the financial sector, we can think of the institutional and regulatory changes to the financial system over the past decade as designed to improve the reliability and signal quality of the transmissions.25

How does all of this relate to the larger questions of philosophy and social order to which Hayek devoted much of his thought? Hayek’s insights about the price system depend importantly on his theory of knowledge: The information that is available to us as a society is the aggregate of the highly dispersed and sometimes inarticulate knowledge possessed by each of us individually. It is not only hard to convey that information to a central authority for processing into a rational decision—it is also conceptually impossible given the nature of that knowledge. And, indeed, important parts of that knowledge will not even be generated except through our interaction with each other through the mechanism of the market. Trying to centralize economic decisionmaking, then, is not just too hard to do as a practical matter. It would actually reduce the amount of knowledge available to us as a society, by replacing those myriad individual interactions in a free marketplace. Thus, even if some technological way to aggregate information other than through prices could be invented, it would lead to less efficient, less humane outcomes because it would be based on less total human information.

The price mechanism, then, is not just a matter of economics—it is a matter of social and, indeed, civilizational progress. As Hayek says in The Constitution of Liberty, “[C]ivilization begins when the individual in pursuit of his ends can make use of more knowledge than he himself acquired and when he can transcend the boundaries of his ignorance by profiting from knowledge that he himself does not possess.”26

I think this ties together the various threads of Hayek’s thought throughout a long life: his early work on psychology (“How do we know?”), his later epistemology (“What do we know, and what does it mean to know it?”), his economics (“How do we make knowledge usable?”), and his social and political theory (“What institutions will ensure that the greatest amount of human knowledge will be usable in the pursuit of their human fulfillment?”). Contrary to those polemicists across the ideological spectrum whose tendentious simplifications of Hayek’s thought would turn him into a crude icon rather than a complex thinker, this is a deeply human, and a deeply humane, project. I will look forward to the contributions of the others you will hear from today in how Hayek elaborated it and how we can further these principles today.

Hmm…

Hayek would be amused to see central bankers reflecting on his central lesson on the need to “decentralise economic activity”. Infact, Hayek would point that the crisis was due to central banks designed incentives in such a way that people took higher risks. He would say post-crisis regulation will lead to similar problems as again regulation etc is all coming from centralised agencies..

Demonetisation in Kenya: A step in fight against corruption (corruption by whom?)

November 7, 2019

Tomorrow is 3 years of India’s demonetisation.

Kenya also recently went thorough its own demonetisation but it was more gradual compared to that of India. India could deposit old notes in banks in 50 days where as in Kenya it was over 4 months (1 Jun 2019 to 30 Sep 2019). They also demonetised Kenyan Shilling 1000 notes just like INR 1000 (and Rs 500) in India. To compare, 1000 KeSh = INR 690.

Unlike RBI which was totally silent on demonetisation, Kenyan central bank governor Patrick Njoroge has written an article on the demon policy:

On September 30, 2019, the withdrawal of the old series Ksh.1,000 notes was successfully concluded. This demonetisation commenced on June 1, 2019, following the launch of Kenya’s new generation notes. The new notes symbolize green energy, agriculture, social services, tourism and governance, that are the drivers of a Newly Reborn and Prosperous Kenya.

In deciding to withdraw the older series Ksh.1,000 notes, the Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) assessed the grave concern that these notes were being used for illicit transactions and financial flows, in Kenya and in the region. More recently, there has also been the emergence of counterfeits. Both these concerns posed a threat to the credibility of Kenyan currency, and required swift action.

In designing the demonetisation strategy, CBK examined the experiences of other countries, such as Australia, European Union, Pakistan, United Kingdom, and most recently India. All considered, the critical consideration was to balance the objective of addressing illicit financial flows and counterfeits while ensuring that the process was not disruptive to the public and the economy.

The gradual approach:

In this regard, a gradual approach over four months was preferred over an abrupt shock and awe approach. Four key elements underpinned the strategy.

First, ample public awareness was doubly important, also given that CBK had concurrently launched the New Generation currency. It was critical that Kenyans across the length and breadth of the country were made aware of the ongoing demonetization but also the features of the new currency

Second, it was important to quickly provide and maintain a wide availability of the new currency. CBK worked closely with banks to ensure a smooth rolling out of new currency across the country and its availability

Third, for the demonetization to be successful it was essential that existing measures on AntiMoney Laundering (AML) and Combatting Financing of Terrorism (CFT) be applied fully.  These measures ensured that illicit funds were filtered out, and not exchanged or enter the financial system.

Fourth, a collaborative approach with other official entities was adopted to buttress the strategy. Investigative agencies were brought on board to examine the available information for evidence of crimes.

I will not be surprised if citizens have a different and an opposite view.

Governments/central banks are not just declaring war on cash but also scare people over their holding of cash. Cash is associated with bad words such as black money, terror financing, money laundering and so on. As if all citizens engage in these activities! Most of the bad activities associated with cash are done complicit with State. Moreover, fiat cash is not something which citizens create/print but is all done by the State.

How low/negative interest rates are impacting pension industry? The Swiss case

November 7, 2019

I had blogged about Denmark central banker being concerned about impact of low interest rates on pensions.

Thomas Jordan, head of Swiss National Bank, in this speech speaks on issues facing pension funds industry. The situation even more acute in Swissland as it has negative interest rates:

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