Archive for November 12th, 2019

Payment system of today and tomorrow in Sweden: It is more worried about decline of physical cash

November 12, 2019

Speech by Stefan Ingves, Governor of Riksbank.

Most other central banks are worried about high usage of cash and want to push digi payments. Opposite is true for Sweden whose central bank is worried over decline in usage of cash and wants to keep cash as a payment option in future.

Ingves says cash should remain in circulation for three reasons: Vulnerability, Availability and Competition. It has already asked the government to decide on the legal tender status of cash.

 

Trends in central banks’ foreign currency reserves and the case of the ECB

November 12, 2019

ECB economists in this research discuss forex reserves:

This article begins with a review of the global trends in central banks’ foreign currency reserve holdings in terms of their size, adequacy and composition, and follows on to examine the ECB’s foreign currency reserves. Just as the reasons for holding reserves have changed over time and across countries, so too have the size and composition of those reserves. Views on appropriate adequacy metrics have also changed. Global foreign currency reserves grew markedly after the Asian financial crisis of the late 1990s, with emerging markets accumulating large reserves to self-insure against potential shocks. In some cases, the growth in reserves was a by-product of export-led growth strategies. While global foreign currency reserves have traditionally been invested primarily in US dollar-denominated financial assets, in recent years holdings have become more diversified in terms of both currency and asset classes.

The second section of the article describes how the ECB’s foreign currency reserves are invested in the light of its main purpose, which is to ensure that the Eurosystem has a sufficient amount of liquid resources whenever they are needed for its foreign exchange policy operations involving non-EU currencies. The investment framework includes three layers of governance, representing: i) the strategic investment policy; ii) medium-term tactical positioning; and iii) day-to-day portfolio management. The way in which the framework involves the national central banks (NCBs) of the Eurosystem in the active management of the ECB’s foreign currency reserves is both unique and intricate. The article describes this active management approach, the internal competition between NCB portfolio managers and the diversification of portfolio management styles that the framework fosters.

 

Changes in India’s Macroeconomic Perceptions: Evidence from the Survey of Professional Forecasters

November 12, 2019

Sanjib Bordoloi, Rajesh Kavediya, Sayoni Roy and Akhil Goyal of RBI in this Nov-19 Monthly Bulletin article:

This article presents an analysis of annual and quarterly forecasts of major macroeconomic variables in the Reserve Bank’s bimonthly survey of professional forecasters (SPF). Forecast of output growth and CPI inflation for 2018-19 and 2019-20 was revised down. The forecast path of exclusion based CPI inflation was gradually revised up for 2018-19 but lowered for 2019-20. Forecast performance improves with reduction in forecast horizon, indicating forecasters’ tendency to update their forecasts with incoming information and provide more accurate estimates as they approach closer to the final estimate of the underlying indicator. The forecasts are found efficient for headline CPI inflation and exclusion based CPI inflation. Disagreement measures for GVA growth
have remained close to its medium term average for all the forecast horizons in the recent period. The general behaviour of the inflation uncertainty largely shows that uncertainty moderated since November 2018.

 


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