Archive for March, 2020

The Transportation‐​Communication Revolution: 50 Years of Dramatic Change in Economic Development

March 19, 2020

Paper in Cato Winter 2020 Journal:

The Industrial Revolution transformed subsistence living into sustained growth, but only for about 15 percent of the world’s population. Throughout the rest of the world, change was minimal. In 1950, the real per capita income for developing countries outside of Africa was slightly less than $4 per day, approximately the same as that of the high‐​income, developed countries at the onset of the Industrial Revolution. But income levels in the developing world have increased dramatically during the past half century, particularly for the 70 percent of the world’s population living in less geographically disadvantaged developing countries.

The huge reductions in transportation and communication costs over the past half century provided the foundation for the remarkable increases in economic development and worldwide income. The Transportation‐​Communication Revolution triggered four changes that have altered life in the developing world: gains from large increases in international trade; gains from higher rates of entrepreneurship and expanded opportunities to borrow successful technologies and business practices from high‐​income countries; improvement in economic freedom; and the virtuous cycle of development.

Our empirical analysis of the annual growth rate of real per capita GDP since 1960 indicates that the expansion of international trade, higher rates of economic freedom, and increases in the share of the global population in the prime working‐​age category have exerted a strong and highly significant impact on economic growth. Due to the sharp reductions in transportation and communication costs, the volume of international trade has risen sharply in recent decades. The growth of trade in less geographically disadvantaged developing countries has been particularly remarkable. Measured in real dollars, the size of the international trade sector in these countries was 44 times higher in 2017 than it was in 1960. This astonishing rate of growth in international trade was approximately 2.5 times higher than it was in high‐​income and more geographically disadvantaged countries over the same time frame. Propelled by the growth of trade, the real per capita GDP of the five billion people living in the less geographically disadvantaged developing world has grown at nearly twice the rate of high‐​income countries in recent decades. The historically high rates of economic growth have transformed these developing countries even more rapidly than the Industrial Revolution transformed the West between 1820 and 1950.

While the Industrial and Transportation‐​Communication Revolutions exerted a similar impact on the lives of those most affected, they differ in three major respects. Compared to the earlier economic revolution, the more recent revolution has been broader, generated more rapid rates of economic growth, and reduced income inequality rather than enlarged it. Both the general populace and the academic literature show an appreciation of the human progress that accompanied the Industrial Revolution. It is now time for both groups to recognize the remarkable human progress brought about by the Transportation‐​Communication Revolution.

 

Yes Bank crisis: Why is a Financial Redressal Agency missing when it is needed most?

March 19, 2020

My new piece in moneycontrol.

The piece reflects on how AT1 bonds reached retail investors and they have nowhere to go to file their complaints. The FSLRC had argued for a Financial Redressal Agency and there was a Task Force which advocated starting FRA by late 2016/early 2017. However, the plan was shelved only for retial investors to face the heat in Yes Bank case.

I also connect the piece to Elizabeth Warren..:-)

Change in Yes Bank shareholding pattern

March 18, 2020

I have been wondering how Yes Bank shareholder pattern will look like. In Dec-2019, the shareholding pattern was like this. Yday, the Yes Bank released a new shareholding pattern

This is how it is:

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Central banks’ “whatever it takes” moment: Will it help?

March 18, 2020

Central banks are again trying to throw the sink at the financial markets. They are searching for  a comment similar to Mario Draghi’s “Whatever it takes” which helped save Euro (atleast that is what we are told).

Some comments on the central bank actions:

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Post Yes Bank: Increasing concern for small private banks

March 18, 2020

This news in Mint on how deposits have declined in one of the small private sector banks in the last one week.

The moratorium on Yes Bank is going to be lifted today at 6 PM. On opening Yes Bank website, pop comes this message:

Image

We will find out soon how good is this new foundation. One of the leading business TV journalists appeals to Yes bank depositors and not panic. Moody’s has also upgraded the bank by a notch which should provide some relief.

Indian banking gets murkier. Private bankers who once laughed at miseries of public sector bankers would be getting a taste of their own medicine now.

RBI-Occasional Papers-Vol. 40, 2019

March 17, 2020

RBI has published its latest occasional paper series Vol 40:

1. Fiscal Rules and Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy: Evidence from Indian States

Dirghau Keshao Raut and Swati Raju examine the impact of fiscal rules on the cyclicality of fiscal policy of Indian states using data for the period from 1990 to 2018. The results suggest that fiscal rules have reduced pro-cyclicality of fiscal policy, particularly in terms of development expenditure, in the post-FRL period. Fiscal deficit also changed its nature from pro-cyclical in the pre-FRL period to acyclical in the post-FRL period. Capital outlay displayed acyclical behaviour in both pre-and post-FRL periods.

2. Payment Systems Innovation and Currency Demand in India: Some Applied Perspectives

Dipak R. Chaudhari, Sarat Dhal and Sonali M. Adki postulate currency demand for transaction purposes driven by income effect, and a payment technology induced substitution effect working through velocity of currency. Innovations in payment systems have shown a statistically significant long-run inverse relationship with currency demand in India. However, the magnitude of its coefficient indicates that the substitution effect of payment systems on currency demand is smaller than the dominant income effect.

3. Can Financial Markets Predict Banking Distress? Evidence from India

Snehal S. Herwadkar and Bhanu Pratap test whether equity markets provide any lead information about stress in the banking system before quarterly data become available to the supervisors. The authors find that markets are able to price-in the banking stress concurrently but not much in advance. As the supervisory data are available with a lag, there is some merit in incorporating market-based information to track banking distress. Interestingly, the findings suggest that markets are relatively less efficient in providing such lead information in the case of public sector banks vis-à-vis private sector banks.

The last paper is interesting. Did equity markets do better in indicating stress at Yes Bank given it is a private sector bank?

Helicopter money: The time is now

March 17, 2020

Jordi Gali in voxeu:

Yes Bank rescue: echoes of the 1998 LTCM Bailout

March 17, 2020

My new article in Bloomberg Quint.

The Yes Bank consortium bailout is quite similar to consortium bailout of LTCM (Long Term Capital Management) in US in 1998.   I explore the connections…

Capital market integration can reduce misallocation: Evidence from India

March 16, 2020

Interesting research by Natalie Bau and Adrien Matray. They try and find out whether India’s capital market reform has helped firms increase output and productivity:

(more…)

Contagion of Fear: Bank failures during Great Depression

March 16, 2020

Kris James Mitchener and Gary Richardson in a new NBER working paper:

The Great Depression is infamous for banking panics, which were a symptomatic of a phenomenon that scholars have labeled a contagion of fear. Using geocoded, microdata on bank distress, we develop metrics that illuminate the incidence of these events and how banks that remained in operation after panics responded. We show that between 1929-32 banking panics reduced lending by 13%, relative to its 1929 value, and the money multiplier and money supply by 36%. The banking panics, in other words, caused about 41% of the decline in bank lending and about nine-tenths of the decline in the money multiplier during the Great Depression.

Surprised to see money multiplier being given prominence in banking/monetary research..

After WMA declines to zero, it again begins to rise..

March 13, 2020

WMA update:

In the week ended Feb-21-2020, WMA had finally declined to zero levels after nearly 2 months.

However, this was short lived. In subsequent weeks, government has again started availing WMA. On week ended Feb-28 and Mar-5, WMA amounts were Rs 5081 cr and Rs 32976 cr respectively.

I am really surprised how WMA continues to be used by the government…

SARS: how a global epidemic was stopped

March 13, 2020

What times!

As we are trying to deal with the spread of Covid19, one often goes back to SARS. The virus broke out in China in Nov-2002 very similar to how Covid19 started as well and almost at the same time.

I came across this publication from WHO titled:  SARS: how a global epidemic was stopped. The entire publication is worth reading as it has contributions of several experts.

The last chapter by Brian Doberstyn points to some of the lessons:

  • Lesson 1: We were lucky this time
  • Lesson 2: Transparency is the best policy
  • Lesson 3: Public health is a serious business
  • Lesson 4: Human-rights issues must be attended to
  • Lesson 5: The media play a critical role in public health emergencies
  • Lesson 6: 21st century science played a relatively small role in controlling SARS; 19th-century techniques continued to prove their value (contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation)
  • Lesson 7: Partnerships worked, but the partners need to clarify and agree on their relative roles
  • Lesson 8: Modern modes of communication dramatically changed the way we work
  • Lesson 9: Clear travel guidance is needed
  • Lesson 10: Animal husbandry and marketing practices seriously affect human health
  • Lesson 11: Who should be on the front lines?
  • Lesson 12: With national disease surveillance systems in disrepair, informal avenues of reporting must be taken seriously
  • Lesson 13: Training and expertise in barrier nursing and hospital infection control are sadly deficient in the region

One could replace SARS with Covid19 in most part of the publication.

Lesson 1 in particular is worrying and also of hope:

The SARS virus could have become a constant threat to human health in the world we live in. It did not. Thanks to the intense and skilful efforts of the
governments of all affected areas, together with their regional and international partners, the virus was contained.

Certain characteristics of the SARS virus made containment possible. Infected individuals usually did not transmit the virus until several days after symptoms
began and were most infectious only by the tenth day or so of illness, when they develop severe symptoms. Therefore, effective isolation of patients was enough to control spread. If cases were infectious before symptoms appeared, or if asymptomatic cases transmitted the virus, the disease would have been much more difficult, perhaps even impossible, to control.

The chains of transmission could be broken at various points. The incubation period was relatively long (two to 10 days, with a median of five days), giving
more time for contacts to be traced and isolated before they fell ill and became infectious themselves. The incubation period also dictated how long contacts
had to be supervised. If the incubation period were longer, observation or quarantine would have been much more difficult to manage.

SARS being largely an urban disease, concentrated in relatively well-equipped hospitals, it was easier to detect cases and trace contacts, isolate patients, limit
infection, and therefore control the spread of the disease. Reporting was also more reliable.

We have obviously not learnt most of the lessons, particularly on animal husbandry. Shigeru Omi who encouraged others to contribute to the report int he introduction writes:

One way we can do that is to better understand why the SARS coronavirus and the avian influenza H5N1 virus crossed the species barrier from animals to
attack humans. What caused this strange migration? The explanation, in my view, lies in part in the way animals are raised for food in Asia, where increasing
prosperity has led to a greater demand for meat, and, in some cultures, a taste for the flesh of exotic animals.

In markets where wild animals are sold for the table, creatures that would never meet in their natural habitat are kept in proximity to one another, setting
the conditions for the emergence of new viruses. A similar threat lies in the way that chickens, ducks, and pigs are raised together, often in unhygienic conditions and usually with no barriers between them and humans. Such husbandry practices must change, or more viruses are likely to emerge from the animal world.

Exotic animals is a kind word for things like eating bats!

It was the first major disease which got amplified due to Passenger jets:

SARS was the first emerging disease of the age of globalization. I believe that, had it occurred in a time before mass international travel, it would probably
have remained a localized problem, with few consequences for global health. But the virus travelled around the world on passenger jets [see the account in
Chapter 15 of the consequences of one single flight between Hong Kong and Beijing], making it a true disease of the 21st century. To fight this 21st-century
disease, Member States applied 19th-century measures such as contact tracing, quarantine, and isolation. As old fashioned and labour intensive as they were,
these measures slowed the virus’s spread, and, in the end, contributed to its containment.

Of course this was true may be for jets. However, in the past flu travelled via ships.

Internet played a positive role:

But we also had a very modern ally: the Internet. Thousands of email messages flashed around the globe each day. Web pages not only kept the world informed daily, but also offered advice on scores of technical issues. At the same time, international laboratory experts set aside their traditional rivalries and grouped their expertise in a virtual network to decode the virus’s secrets. So successful was this unprecedented scientific cooperation that the causative agent, the coronavirus, was identified within weeks, whereas it might have taken months or possibly even years in the days before the Internet. 

Not sure what role internet has played this time. Mix of help and panic.

It is sad that humanity chooses to forget these big health crises and not learn.

Phew! Stay safe and quarantined..

 

The year 2020 marks 100 years of Catholic Syrian Bank!

March 12, 2020

I had blogged on how some banks in India are lined up for 100 year anniversaries,

In 2020, Catholic Syrian Bank will complete its 100 years of functioning. The bank started from Thrissur which has an amazing history of banking. The bank is now known as CSB as it was still considered as a community run bank.

The IPO Prospectus of the Bank gives a glimpse of its history:

Our Bank was incorporated on November 26, 1920 under the Indian Companies Act, 1913 as ‘The Catholic Syrian Bank Limited’. A fresh certificate of incorporation under the Companies Act, 1956 was issued by the RoC on April 14, 1987. The Shareholders of our Bank approved the change of name of our Bank from ‘The Catholic Syrian Bank Limited’ to ‘CSB Bank Limited’ through a postal ballot resolution dated May 4, 2019, and RBI, through its letter
bearing reference number DBR.PSBD.No.8231/16.01.060/2018-19 dated April 1, 2019, conveyed its ‘no objection’ in terms of Section 49B of the Banking Regulation Act to change of name of our Bank from ‘The Catholic Syrian Bank Limited’ to ‘CSB Bank Limited’.

Subsequently, a fresh certificate of incorporation under the Companies Act, 2013 was issued by the RoC on June 10, 2019 and a fresh license bearing no. MUM-147 dated June 28, 2019 was issued by the RBI under our new name to carry on the banking business in India, in lieu of our previous license dated June 19, 1969, consequent to the change of name of our Bank. Our Bank has sent an intimation to RBI on June 25, 2019 in relation to the change of name of our Bank to ‘CSB Bank Limited’ in the second schedule of the RBI pursuant to the issue of fresh license bearing reference no. MUM-147 dated June 28, 2019.which is currently pending final notification in the official gazette.

In 1964 and 1965, our Bank took over the assets and liabilities of six small and medium sized banks located in Kerala, namely, Ollur Bank Limited, Puthenpeedika Bank Limited, Kottapadi Bank Private Limited, Oriental Christian Bank Limited, Indian Insurance & Banking Corporation Limited, and Mar Appraem Bank Limited. In  August 1969, our Bank was included in the second schedule to the RBI Act. Additionally, in 1975, our Bank attained the status of ‘A’ class scheduled bank.

The 1960s were obviously very tough for the bank post failure of Palai Central Bank. How the bank survived the period and managed to remain a private sector bank is quite a story. I hope the bank releases a good review of its history as it comes closer to its Centenary on 26 Nov 2020.

Forbes ran a nice piece on the bank in 2010 on how Federal Bank wanted to merge CSB with itself but the deal never saw light of the day..

The Virus and the Australian Economy

March 12, 2020

Guy Debelle, Deputy Governor gives a speech on impact of Covid19 virus on Australian economy:

I had been intending to talk about investment, the theme of this conference. But, given the circumstances, instead I will provide a summary of how the Bank is seeing developments in the economy at the moment.[1] I will provide our assessment of where the economy was ahead of the onset of the coronavirus as well as an assessment of the effect of the virus to date, including on financial markets.

The December quarter national accounts confirmed our assessment that the Australian economy ended 2019 with a gradual pick-up in growth. Growth over the year was 2¼ per cent, up from a low of 1½ per cent. Consumption growth was a little stronger in the quarter, although still subdued. We had estimated that the bushfires will subtract around 0.2 percentage points from growth across the December and March quarters, but besides that, economic growth was set to continue to pick up supported by low interest rates, the lower exchange rate, a rise in mining investment, high levels of spending on infrastructure and an expected recovery in residential construction.

On the global side, around the turn of the year there were indications that the global economy was coming out of a soft patch of growth. The trade tensions between China and the US had abated, surveys of business conditions were picking up and industrial production was improving. Financial conditions were very stimulatory and supporting the pick-up in global growth.

Since then, there is no doubt that the outbreak of the virus has significantly disrupted this momentum, initially in China and now more broadly. We do not have a clear picture yet on the disruption to the Chinese economy caused by the virus and the measures put in place to contain the virus. But the following two graphs provide some sense of the significant disruption to the Chinese people and economy.

On the recent rate cut:

Turning to monetary policy, the Board met last week and decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.5 per cent. This decision was taken to support the economy by boosting demand and to offset the tightening in financial conditions that otherwise was occurring.

The reduction in the cash rate at the March meeting was passed in full through to mortgage rates. The cash rate has been reduced by 100 basis points since June. This has translated into a reduction in mortgage rates of 95 basis points. This has occurred through the combination of a reduction in the standard variable rate of 85 basis points, larger discounts to new borrowers and existing borrowers refinancing to take advantage of larger discounts. While a lower and flatter interest rate structure puts pressure on bank margins, it is important to remember that the easing in monetary policy will help support the Australian economy which in turn supports the credit quality of the banks’ portfolios of loans.

The virus is a shock to both demand and supply. Monetary policy does not have an effect on the supply side, but can work to ensure demand is stronger than it otherwise would be. Lower interest rates will provide more disposable income to the household sector and those businesses with debt. They may not spend it straight away, but it brings forward the day when they will be comfortable with their balance sheets and resume a normal pattern of spending. Monetary policy also works through the exchange rate which will help mitigate the effect of the virus’ impact on external demand.

The effect of the virus will come to an end at some point. Once we get beyond the effect of the virus, the Australian economy will be supported by the low level of interest rates, the lower exchange rate, a pick-up in mining investment, sustained spending on infrastructure and an expected recovery in residential construction.

The Government has announced its intention to support jobs, incomes, small business and investment which will provide welcome support to the economy. The combined effect of fiscal and monetary policy will help us navigate a difficult period for the Australian economy. They will also help ensure the Australian economy is well placed to bounce back quickly once the virus is contained.

 

How Wells Fargo top management is grilled by US House Financial Services Committee: Lessons for India?

March 12, 2020

The Wells Fargo misseling accounts scam happened in 2016 but the officials continued to be grilled by the US authorities.

The US House Committee on Financial Services continues to grill the officials at Wells Fargo. There was a hearing on 11 March 2020.

The statement of Chair Maxine Water read as follows:

Today, we receive testimony from Elizabeth Duke and James Quigley, who until earlier this week served as chair of the board of directors of Wells Fargo & Company and Wells Fargo Bank, respectively. Both resigned after I called for their resignations following the release of a scathing Majority staff report on Wells Fargo’s compliance failures and their individual failures as board chairs.

But their resignations do not absolve them of their failures. Directors at Wells Fargo and institutions across this country must understand that they are the last line of defense when it comes to protecting their companies’ shareholders, employees, and customers. And while Ms. Duke and Mr. Quigley said they resigned to “avoid distraction,” let me be clear that this is not a distraction—we are examining misconduct and dereliction of duty.

Over the past decade, Wells Fargo’s board, management, and regulators have all failed to fix the company’s internal control weaknesses that caused enormous harm for millions of consumers throughout the country.

The Majority staff’s report examined Wells Fargo’s compliance with five consent orders that required the company’s board and management to clean up the systemic weaknesses that led to widespread consumer abuses and compliance breakdowns. As board members, Ms. Duke and Mr. Quigley were responsible for ensuring that Wells Fargo’s CEO and other management executed an effective program to manage those risks. However, the Majority staff report found that Wells Fargo’s board:

    1. Failed to ensure management could competently address the risk management deficiencies;
    2. Allowed management to repeatedly submit materially deficient plans to address consumer abuses;
    3. Prioritized financial considerations over fixing consumer abuses; and,
    4. Did not hold senior management accountable for repeated failures.

The Majority staff report also revealed attitudes and failures on the part of Ms. Duke and Mr. Quigley that are dismaying.

When the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau included Ms. Duke on letters requesting actions from the bank, she responded asking, “Why are you sending it to me, the board, rather than the department manager?” This was surprising to CFPB officials, and gives the appearance of a see-no-evil mentality from Ms. Duke, and an unwillingness to exercise oversight required of her as a member of the board.

Mr. Quigley also did not appear to understand the gravity of his board responsibilities. When the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency wanted to schedule a meeting with the bank’s directors to discuss “progress and accountability,” Mr. Quigley told other bank officials that he was, “currently scheduled to be in the Galapagos Islands on these dates,” and commented that “the sense of urgency is surprising…”

These statements were made after several public enforcement actions against Wells Fargo for massive consumer abuse scandals.

While Ms. Duke and Mr. Quigley have resigned, they must be held accountable for the dereliction of their duties as members of Wells Fargo’s board.

Hmm. For all you know Elizabeth Duke served on the Federal Reserve Board and then joined Wells Fargo.

We should adopt some of these practices to figure large scale banking frauds in India. We have a problem in all possible banking sectors: NBFCs, HFCs, Cooperatives, Public Sector Banks and now Private Sector Bank. However, we hardly see the Parliament grilling executives and regulators.

Monetary Policy Transmission in India – Recent Trends and Impediments

March 12, 2020

RBI Monthly Bulletin Mar-2020 has an article on the burning question: Why is RBI’s monetary policy transmission weak?

The article is written by Arghya Kusum Mitra and Sadhan Kumar Chattopadhyay of Monetary Policy Department

This article examines monetary policy transmission to various segments of the financial system in India with aspecial emphasis on banks’ deposit and lending interest rates during the current easing cycle so far, i.e., since February 2019. While transmission to money market and long-term rates has been swift and almost complete, the transmission to deposit and lending interest rates has been muted. A key factor impeding quick and adequatetransmission to banks’ lending rates has been long maturity profile of bank deposits at fixed interest rates.

Even otherwise, banks are slow in adjusting their deposit interest rates. Under the external benchmark system introduced effective October 1, 2019 for select categories of loans, transmission to banks’ lending rates will no longer be contingent upon adjustment in deposit interest rates. Instead, changes in lending rates will induce changes in deposit interest rates.

Hmm.

Give RBI Governors a longer, fixed, non-renewable and non-dismissible tenure

March 11, 2020

My new piece in Moneycontrol:

The Supreme Court has said the relatively short tenure of RBI Governors fixed by the central government undermines their independence.

 

History and evolution of Money in England

March 11, 2020

Nice speech by Sir Jon Cunliffe of Bank of England.

the forms money takes in society is not fixed. Those forms change as the structure of economies changes, as the ways in which we transact with each other change, as technology makes new forms possible.

We think of medieval England as a society using state issued metallic tokens – coins stamped with the monarch’s head – as its main form of money. But transferable debt obligations, recorded on notched sticks of wood, the ‘tally sticks’, also functioned as money, not for day-to-day use, but for large transactions. We think likewise of the gold standard period, following Sir Isaac Newton’s coinage reforms, as one in which  metallic money dominated. But again, although coins were the everyday means of exchange, transferable private sector claims, in the forms of banknotes and ‘bills of exchange’, were still significant in trade and commerce.

This is not just ancient history. We have seen a big change in my lifetime. When I was at school, admittedly a very long time ago, physical cash – banknotes and coins – played a far larger role in our lives. Far fewer people had bank accounts. In the mid-1960s, most workers were paid weekly in cash, and around 70% of the population did not have a bank account.3 Consequently, for every £100 of funds that people held to make payments, over a third would be held as cash. Nowadays, less than 5% is held as cash.

Today, around 98% of households have access to bank accounts. And credit and debit cards have made it much easier to use our bank accounts for everyday transactions – in other words the transfer of claims on the banks in which we hold our money.

That shift from physical cash to electronic transaction has not only been a shift from paper to electronic form. It has also been a shift from using a form of money issued as a direct claim on the state – the seemingly archaic but very real promise on our banknotes – to money created and issued by commercial banks as a claim on themselves.

This shift was not driven by any policy but as a consequence of technology providing more convenient ways for us to transact with each other. The shift as I recall has generated very little controversy or political attention. There has been a political response, but this has more about financial inclusion, about ensuring access to a bank account and to commercial bank money so that people were not left behind by the change. It has not been about the reliability and security of commercial bank money as it has become more dominant in the economy.

It is interesting to observe that in the eighteenth and nineteenth century there was a similar shift from statemoney, in the form of coins, to private money, in the form of banknotes, which in those days were bearer claims issued by private banks. That eventually generated a very different reaction, with the result that private banks in most countries were banned from issuing bank notes.

Hmm..

Why so many epidemics originate in Asia and Africa?

March 11, 2020

Suresh V Kuchipudi, a virologist and associate director of the Animal Diagnostic Laboratory at Penn State University in this piece looks at the question.

He cites population explosion and unplanned urbanisation as key reasons. The urbanisation leads to deforestationand loss of habitat kills predators leading to population explosion for rodents.

Coronanomics 101

March 11, 2020

Prof Barry Eichengreen in this piece sums up:

In the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic, economists, economic policymakers, and bodies like the G7 should humbly acknowledge that “all appropriate tools” imply, above all, those wielded by medical practitioners and epidemiologists. Coordination, autonomy, and transparency must be the watchwords.

….

….monetary policy can’t mend broken supply chains. My colleague Brad DeLong has tried to convince me that an injection of central bank liquidity can help get global container traffic moving again, as it did in 2008. (Now you know the kind of elevator conversations we have at UC Berkeley.) But the problem in 2008 was disruptions to the flow of finance, which central banks’ liquidity injections could repair.

The problem today, however, is a sudden stop in production, which monetary policy can do little to offset. Fed Chair Jerome Powell can’t reopen factories shuttered by quarantine, whatever US President Donald Trump may think. Likewise, monetary policy will not get shoppers back to the malls or travelers back onto airplanes, insofar as their concerns center on safety, not cost. Rate cuts can’t hurt, given that inflation, already subdued, is headed downward; but not much real economic stimulus should be expected of them.

The same is true, unfortunately, of fiscal policy. Tax credits won’t get production restarted when firms are preoccupied by their workers’ health and the risk of spreading disease. Payroll-tax cuts won’t boost discretionary spending when consumers are worried about the safety of their favorite fast-food chain.

The priority therefore should be detection, containment, and treatment. These tasks require fiscal resources, but their success will hinge more importantly on administrative competence. Restoring public confidence requires transparency and accuracy in reporting infections and fatalities. It requires giving public health authorities the kind of autonomy enjoyed by independent central banks. (Unfortunately, this is not something that comes naturally to leaders like Trump.

 


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