Archive for December 8th, 2020

Mexican president picks a dove Deputy Governor to replace a hawk Deputy Governor

December 8, 2020

News from Mexico:

Mexican finance ministry official Galia Borja is poised to become the central bank’s new deputy governor after the president nominated her on Monday to replace one of the most hawkish members on the monetary authority’s board.

Borja, who currently serves as treasurer of the finance ministry, is seen as a close ally of Finance Minister Arturo Herrera and previously worked for President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador when he was mayor of Mexico City.

While not much is known about Borja’s position on monetary policy, some analysts believe she will be more dovish than outgoing Javier Guzman, whom she will replace.

Guzman is known as one of the more hawkish members on the central bank board who took a more cautious approach to cutting its main lending rate.

Still, under the stewardship of Bank of Mexico Governor Alejandro Diaz de Leon a big shift in monetary policy bias for Banxico, as the bank is known, is not expected in the short run.

Changes in monetary policy operating procedures over the last decade: insights from a new database

December 8, 2020

BIS has released its quarterly report. How they end up producing such interesting analysis every quarter is something.

Adam Cap, Mathias Drehmann and Andreas Schrimpf in one of the report papers, analyse changes in monetary policy operating procedures over the last decade:

The implementation of monetary policy has two core elements (eg Borio and Nelson (2008)).5

The first comprises mechanisms to signal the desired policy stance, eg is the central bank easing or tightening? These mechanisms involve variables that are fully under the central bank’s control. Such variables can be policy interest rates, such as a lending rate or announced ranges for an overnight rate, or balance sheet quantities, such as announced large-scale purchases of government securities.

The second comprises market operations to implement the stance. In line with the type of signal, the operations may seek to influence a market interest rate, such as an overnight rate in the interbank market, or simply execute the announced adjustments in the central bank’s balance sheet, such as the purchases noted above. If the central bank seeks to influence a market rate rather precisely, this is typically referred to as an “operational target”.

What have been the changes?

The GFC has resulted in profound changes in operating procedures in many currency areas, especially in major AEs.

Pre-GFC, most central banks defined the policy stance and operational targets exclusively in terms of a short-term interest rate, most often an overnight interbank rate. In and of themselves, the transactions in the market to implement that stance carried no signal. Indeed, central banks went a long way to avoid any such impression so as not to confuse markets. The transactions were of a purely technical nature and were designed not to influence market prices beyond the operational target. They were carried out purely to adjust the amount of bank deposits with the central bank in order to control the overnight rate (see below). This “decoupling principle” ruled supreme.

Post-GFC, as the policy rate neared the ELB in many currency areas, the respective central banks expanded their toolkit and followed a more multifaceted approach. Signals have included balance sheet quantities too. And they have not been limited to announcing some policy rate(s) or an adjustment in the central bank balance sheet today; they have sometimes also provided guidance about the future path of those variables (“forward guidance”). Moreover, operational targets have also gone beyond overnight or short-term rates and included long-term rates, such as benchmark 10-year bond yields. Put differently, the active use of adjustments in the size and composition of the balance sheet to change the policy stance (“balance sheet policies”) has done away with the decoupling principle.

Despite these fundamental changes, the overnight interbank rate still plays a key role in day-to-day policy implementation. This is because it is the rate that the central bank controls most closely and, partly as a result, is the linchpin of the term structure of interest rates. This rate represents the marginal cost of funds for immediate liquidity purposes and is determined by the supply of, and demand for, bank deposits with the central bank, ie “bank reserves”. It can be controlled most closely because the central bank is, by construction, the monopoly supplier of bank reserves. It changes the supply by lending/borrowing in the market (eg through repos and reverse repos) and by buying/selling assets.6 Moreover, the central bank can also influence directly the demand for reserves through reserve requirements, which require banks to hold a minimum amount of deposits with the central bank.

Nice bit…

The EU’s first anti-fraud prosecutor reflects on the challenges of tackling transnational crime

December 8, 2020

Project EU is not just about monetary, banking and capital markets union but several other unions at work. They have set up a pan-EU anti fraud prosectuion team and Romania’s Laura Codruta Kövesi is heading the unit.

In this interview in IMF’s F&D Magazine, Laura discusses her role:

Laura Codruta Kövesi is no stranger to fighting corruption. After becoming Romania’s youngest and first woman prosecutor-general, she served as head of the National Anti-Corruption Directorate from 2013 to 2018. Her tenacity and fearlessness soon opened a new door. Kövesi now serves as the European Union’s first anti-fraud prosecutor in charge of the new European Public Prosecutor’s Office (EPPO), based in Luxembourg, which will investigate, prosecute, and bring judgment for crimes against the EU budget. These crimes can include fraud, corruption, organized crime, and cross-border value-added tax (VAT) crimes exceeding €10 million.

Previously, only national prosecutors across EU member states could tackle such criminality, but they lacked jurisdiction beyond their borders. Other institutions, such as Europol or the EU anti-fraud office OLAF, had no legal authority to act. The European Commission reports that €140 billion in VAT revenue was lost in 2018 to fraud and evasion, predicting that number to increase to €164 billion in 2020 as a result of the pandemic.

Can the EPPO successfully tackle transnational crime? F&D’s Rahim Kanani interviewed Kövesi to find out.

F&D: What is the single most important lesson you bring to this new role from your experience in Romania?

LK: My experience with Romania’s National Anti-Corruption Directorate is proof that nobody is above the law and that the law can be applied equally to everyone, regardless of their position in society. We were able to not only raise awareness about the seriousness of corruption and how it impacts people’s lives, but we were also able to show that Romanian institutions can work efficiently and legally to defeat it. It is not an unsolvable problem.

F&D: What are the main challenges to establishing an effective EU prosecutor’s office?

LK: We’re building this office from scratch, so there is much work to be done to get our administrative, budget, and legislative guidelines in order. There is no precedent for such an office, as we have to harmonize the work of prosecutors from 22 different member states. They are working in different judiciaries with different procedural rules, and we have to find common ground.

The second challenge, once we’re operational, is to be efficient, act independently, and win the trust of the citizens—which we can only win by being effective in our efforts and by proving that the law is applied equally to everyone.

Project EU is a good place to think about building institutions from the scratch..

All models of bank ownership and governance have bugs and features. Let there be open debate

December 8, 2020

Manish Sabaharwal, a corporate (CEO of Teamlease) and RBI Board Member in this article says let’s have an open debate on Bank ownership.  Painting all corporates as bad and evil is no way to address the topic:

If you only read the multiple, interesting and expert responses to RBI’s recent Internal Working Group report that targets higher banking competition, you could be forgiven for believing that Indian banking doesn’t need radical change, that most Indian entrepreneurs deserve their own episode in Netflix’s Bad Boys Billionaires, and that banks are only safe in the hands of employees or foreigners. Demonising Indian entrepreneurs not only excludes capital but encourages the possibility of Indian banking becoming like Wimbledon; it is played in England but Britishers rarely win. Shouldn’t building big Indian banks be an important strategic priority when five of the world’s top 10 banks are Chinese? As Poet Ramdhari Singh Dinkar wrote: Kshama shobhiti us bhujang ko jiske paas garal ho (Benevolence only befits snakes that have venom).

Whatever is finally done — the recommendations are open for public comments — any debate must openly consider the painful status quo, the tyranny of technocracy, and the possibilities of entrepreneurship.

 

Narrative monetary policy surprises and the media: How central banks reach the general public

December 8, 2020

Saskia ter Ellen, Vegard H. Larsen, Leif Anders Thorsrud in this voxeu research point how media helps central banks reach their policy message to the public:

Though the transmission channels of central bank communication to financial institutions are well researched, less is known about how they relay information to the public at large. This column shows how central bank communication indirectly reaches the general public by affecting news media coverage on topics of particular relevance for monetary policy decisions. The findings suggest that the media, and how it acts as an information intermediary, can have a sizeable effect on economic outcomes.

This voxeu summary is based on their earlier paper.


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