Archive for November 19th, 2021

The monetary and fiscal policy challenges of cryptocurrency

November 19, 2021

Sajjid Chinoy, Chief Economist JP Morgain India in this Indian Express article points to challenges cryptos will pose on mon and fiscal policy.

On mon policy, he says this will be akin to dollarisation where home central banks lose their importance:

For starters, how would monetary policy be impacted if a private digital currency was competing with fiat currencies? Think of this as “dollarisation” by another name, but with a crucial difference as enumerated below. Latin America is replete with economies becoming “dollarised”. As domestic nationals lost faith in their own currency as a store of value, they shifted into and began transacting in US dollars for the security and stability it accorded. What this did was to render domestic monetary policy ineffective, because domestic central banks cannot set interest rates and inject liquidity in a foreign currency. The greater the substitution into US dollars, the lower the potency of monetary policy. In effect, these economies were importing the monetary policy of the US Fed.

Widespread adoption of privately issued digital currencies as a medium of exchange will have much the same impact. The larger the monetary base they cannibalise, the less potent will be domestic monetary policy in responding to business cycle needs and external shocks.

In this speech, Fabio Panetta of ECB also spoke on how central banks will lose their monetary anchor which is cash.

What about fiscal policy? In backdrop of loss of mon pol, focus comes to fiscal policy:

What about fiscal policy? The implications are more straightforward. The greater the substitution into digital currencies the more the loss of seigniorage revenues to governments from the monopoly issuance of fiat currency. Separately, fiscal revenues can also be adversely impacted by the increased tax evasion opportunities that crypto-currencies can facilitate.

To the extent that increased substitution into cryptos reduces the efficacy of monetary policy, the onus on fiscal policy to respond to economic shocks will commensurately rise. This could create challenges in a post-Covid world. The pandemic has left a legacy of elevated public debt around the world. Fiscal policy, especially in emerging markets, will have the least space to act when it is most needed.

On external account, he says demand for bitcoins/cryptos will lead to money flowing out which is like capital outflows:

Finally, what are the implications for the Rupee? To the extent that cryptos are mined abroad, demand for them — whether for transactions or speculative purposes — will be akin to capital outflows. In turn, if cryptos begin to get mined onshore, they will induce capital inflows. These dynamics will increase capital account volatility and, to the extent that these cross-border flows circumvent capital flow measures, they de facto increase capital account convertibility, accentuating the policy trilemma that emerging markets confront.

This will also directly impact the currency market. As the 2021 Global Financial Stability Report underscores, there must exist a triangular arbitrage between, say, the local Rupee-Bitcoin market, the Dollar-Bitcoin markets and the Rupee-Dollar market. Consequently, changes in the Rupee-Bitcoin markets will inevitably spill over into the Rupee-Dollar markets for markets to clear.

In the end, policymakers need to prepare for the crypto future:

All told, the macro implications of widespread crypto adoption are complex and interlinked. For now, there is justifiable angst about growing household attraction for cryptos as speculative assets, with its attendant regulatory implications. But the true macro challenge will emerge and compound if and when unbacked private digital currencies are seen as viable mediums of exchange. That’s what policy must anticipate and prepare for.

Plane Tales: Air India’s Return to the Tatas

November 19, 2021

Aashique Ahmed Iqbal of Krea University is a historian of aviation in India. In TheIndiaForum, He has written this reflective essay on return of Air India to Tatas:

From the perspective of Tata’s recent corporate history, there is reason to view the takeover of Air India with cautious pessimism. In a recent email exchange, Mircea Raianu pointed to the similarities between the Air India acquisition and Tata’s expensive purchase of Corus Steel in 2006, both of which were attempts to right what the group views as historical wrongs committed against the group. In the Corus case, by taking over Britain’s most important steel producer, Tata symbolically avenged itself against British industrialists who had dismissed the company’s capacity to make steel in the early 20th century. However, the Corus acquisition has turned out to be both financially unrewarding and politically volatile. So too could Air India, in a period when the airline industry across the world is in the midst of a major contraction due to Covid-19 and climate change.

History may not offer clear lessons that can be used to predict Air India’s future. But the narratives around Air India’s past indicate how history is used as a resource to explain and at times to even justify present-day developments. Much of the impetus for this mobilisation of history as a resource comes from Tata itself. Well aware of the legitimacy conferred by history, JRD meticulously recorded and commemorated his achievements in the field of aviation.  Tata also commissioned glowing biographies and JRD has the distinction of being one of the few Indian industrialists to establish a dedicated archive. Some measure of the success of the historical narrative promoted by  Tata amongst middle-class Indians, can be had from the widespread celebration of Ratan Tata’s tweet on Air India.

Yet, examples and analogies from the past are of limited use outside their specific historical context. Taking the claims on history made by Tata and many in the press at face value carries many risks. This includes turning history into a vehicle for corporate aggrandizement, reducing it to a simple story of a struggle pitting the state against private enterprise and drawing dubious ‘lessons’ from the past. Failing to place events in their context serves not only to provide us with the wrong lessons but also to misunderstand the past.

 

RBI releases Report on digital lending including lending through online platforms and mobile apps

November 19, 2021

In Jan-21, RBI had constituted a working group to study and give recommendations for the rising digital lending.

Digital lending has the potential to make access to financial products and services more fair, efficient and inclusive. From a peripheral supporting role a few years ago, FinTech led innovation is now at the core of the design, pricing and delivery of financial products and services. While penetration of digital methods in the financial sector is a welcome development, the benefits and certain downside risks are often interwoven in such endeavours. A balanced approach needs to be followed so that the regulatory framework supports innovation while ensuring data security, privacy, confidentiality and consumer protection.

2. Recent spurt and popularity of online lending platforms/ mobile lending apps (‘digital lending’) has raised certain serious concerns which have wider systemic implications. Against this backdrop, a Working Group (WG) is being set up to study all aspects of digital lending activities in the regulated financial sector as well as by unregulated players so that an appropriate regulatory approach can be put in place.

The committee was expected to submit its report in 3 months but submitted its report 11 yesterday, after 11 months. It is easily one of the most important committee reports of recent years and has implications for future of banking in India.

The report defines digital lending as:

A remote and automated lending process, majorly by use of seamless digital technologies in customer acquisition, credit assessment, loan
approval, disbursement, recovery, and associated customer service.

The key recommendations of the committee are:

(more…)


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